Trading Prospects Away

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I made a post on the main page replying to the fact someone mentioned whether we should trade 3B Josh Vitters, our best prospect. He was our number one pick (and number three overall).

I contemplated this question. He is only 19. Yes he was the number 3 pick in the draft, but is that a guarantee he will succeed? Looking back over the last decade of draft picks you can see that some names make it and some never pan out to be what you thought.

In the 2000 draft the Cubs also had the third overall pick. I think this draft best illustrates my point never know.....

In 2000 we drafted shortstop Luis Montanez. Yeah that worked out well, now didn't it.

This draft stood out because of the lack of superstars that developed from it. The number one pick, 1B Adrian Gonzalez sure did blossom. Not many more did. Although, if you look down the list the Cubs could have drafted 2B Chase Utley instead of Mr. Montanez.

Here is the list of first round picks from 2000:

Pick Player Team Position Hometown/School
1 Adrian Gonzalez Florida Marlins 1B Chula Vista, CA
2 Adam Johnson Minnesota Twins RHP Cal-State Fullerton
3 Luis Montanez Chicago Cubs SS Miami, FL
4 Mike Stodolka Kansas City Royals LHP Corona, CA
5 Justin Wayne Montreal Expos RHP Stanford
6 Rocco Baldelli Tampa Bay Rays OF Warwick, RI
7 Matt Harrington Colorado Rockies RHP Palmdale, CA
8 Matt Wheatland Detroit Tigers RHP San Diego, CA
9 Mark Phillips San Diego Padres LHP Hanover, PA
10 Joe Torres Anaheim Angels LHP Kissimmee, FL
11 Dave Krynzel Milwaukee Brewers OF Henderson, NV
12 Joe Borchard Chicago White Sox OF Stanford
13 Shaun Boyd St. Louis Cardinals 2B Oceanside, CA
14 Beau Hale Baltimore Orioles RHP Texas University
15 Chase Utley Philadelphia Phillies 2B UCLA
16 Billy Traber New York Mets LHP Loyola Marymount
17 Ben Diggins Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Arizona State
18 Miguel Negron Toronto Blue Jays OF Caguas, PR
19 Sean Burnett Pittsburgh Pirates LHP Wellington, FL
20 Chris Bootcheck Anaheim Angels RHP Auburn
21 John Bonser San Francisco Giants RHP Pinellas Park, FL
22 Phil Dumatrait Boston Red Sox LHP Bakersfield Junior College
23 David Espinosa Cincinnati Reds SS Miami, FL
24 Blake Williams St. Louis Cardinals RHP S.W. Texas State
25 Scott Heard Oakland Athletics C Long Beach State
26 Corey . Smith Cleveland Indians SS Piscataway, NJ
27 Robert Stiehl Cleveland Indians C Marianna, FL
28 David Parrish St. Louis Cardinals C University of Central Florida
29 Adam Wainwright Atlanta Braves RHP Marietta, GA
30 Scott Thorman Atlanta Braves 3B Pepperdine University

Even more suprising is the number of names drafted after the first round (in some cases WELL after) who turned out to be superstars........

Xavier Nady, 2nd round, 49th overall
Manny Delcarmen, 2nd round, 62nd overall
Grady Sizemore, 3rd round, 75th overall
David DeJesus, 4th round, 104th overall
Cliff Lee, 4th round, 105th overall
Mewelde Moore, 4th round, 109th overall
Bobby Jenks, 5th round, 140th overall
Dontrelle Willis, 8th round, 223rd overall
Brandon Webb, 8th round, 249th overall
Ryan Church, 14th round, 426h overall
James Shields, 16th round, 466th overall
Rich Harden, 17th round, 510th overall
Jason Bay, 22nd round, 645th overall
Nate McClouth, 25th round, 749th overall
Adam LaRoche, 29th round, 880th overall

Very interesting.....

So, the draft is really a gamble. My though is if you have someone that young in the system who overall is very unproven, trade him away if you have a chance at a blockbuster deal.