Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA Projections for the upcoming season. The team Steamer projected to win 94 games and USA Today predicted to win 101 games, PECOTA has finishing at the top of the National League Central with a 92-70 record.
The 92 victories would be the second highest win total in the National League behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68) and just ahead of the New York Mets (91-71).
PECOTA sees the Cleveland Indians (92-70) winning the most games in the American League followed by the Tampa Bay Rays (91-71), Boston Red Sox (88-74) and Houston Astros (87-75).
PECOTA has the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers as the division winners in the National League with the Nationals and Giants squaring off the NL Wild Card Game. PECOTA thinks the Pirates (83-79) and Cardinals (82-80) will not make the playoffs this year.
In the American League, according to PECOTA, the three division winners are the Rays, Indians and Astros with the Blue Jays traveling to Fenway Park for the AL Wild Card Game against the Red Sox.
For the Cubs, PECOTA has Joe Maddon’s team scoring 744 runs and allowing 644 runs with a team slash line of .246/.322/.419.
Here’s how PECOTA predicts the 2016 season will play out, at least in the standings:
National League
East
- New York Mets – 91-71
- Washington Nationals – 87-75
- Miami Marlins – 76-86
- Atlanta Braves – 68-94
- Philadelphia Phillies – 65-97
Central
- Chicago Cubs – 92-70
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 83-79
- St. Louis Cardinals – 82-80
- Milwaukee Brewers – 77-85
- Cincinnati Reds – 74-88
West
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 94-68
- San Francisco Giants – 87-75
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 78-84
- San Diego Padres – 77-85
- Colorado Rockies – 74-88
American League
East
- Tampa Bay Rays – 91-71
- Boston Red Sox – 88-74
- Toronto Blue Jays – 86-76
- New York Yankees – 85-77
- Baltimore Orioles – 72-90
Central
- Cleveland Indians – 92-70
- Chicago White Sox – 82-80
- Detroit Tigers – 79-83
- Minnesota Twins – 79-83
- Kansas City Royals – 76-86
West
- Houston Astros – 87-75
- Seattle Mariners – 84-78
- Texas Rangers – 80-82
- Los Angeles Angels – 76-86
- Oakland Athletics – 75-87
• Baseball Prospectus Depth Charts
As for individual projections, here’s how PECOTA thinks several of the players’ numbers will look by the end of the season:
• Anthony Rizzo – .264/.353/.489 with 30 home runs, 3.8 WARP
• Ben Zobrist – .263/.348/.415 with 14 home runs, 3.6 WARP
• Kris Bryant – .264/.357/.505 with 31 home runs, 4.8 WARP
• Kyle Schwarber – .251/.346/.482 with 31 home runs, 3.6 WARP
• Jason Heyward – .261/.340/.430 with 20 home runs, 2.6 WARP
• Jake Arrieta – 14-8, 3.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.6 WARP
• Jon Lester – 14-9, 3.28 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.6 WARP
• John Lackey – 13-10, 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.1 WARP
• Jason Hammel – 11-8, 3.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.6 WARP
• Kyle Hendricks – 10-8, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 1.9 WARP
• Baseball Prospectus Cubs Projections