Opening Day of the 2016 season is just over two months away and there are a lot of practices and exhibition games on the horizon before the Cubs play a game that counts.
FanGraphs has updated its Steamer projections for the 2016 season. And the Cubs win-loss projection changed slightly from mid-January. Instead of 95 wins, FanGraphs has Joe Maddon’s team posting a 94-68 record, still tops in baseball.
Projections for ‘Bryzzo’ are in line with the numbers Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant put up a year ago. Steamer has Rizzo leading the team in home runs, runs scored, walks and RBI just ahead of Bryant. And Kyle Schwarber, according to Steamer, will be third on the team in longballs.
Without a true leadoff hitter on the roster, Joe Maddon will find the right combination at the top of his lineup. Jason Heyward figures to hit second or sixth in the lineup and Steamer is projecting a very good season for him in his first year with the Cubs.
Ben Zobrist is expected to help with the Cubs contact rate while John Mallee and Eric Hinske work with Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Bryant and Schwarber to cut down on the strikeouts in order to get more contact from the entire lineup.
The additions the front office made this off-season give Maddon a deeper lineup than the one he got the most out of after the break a year ago.
The Cubs finished toward the top in the National League after the break in eight offensive categories: Second in on-base percentage (.328), fourth in slugging percentage (.426), tied for second in OPS (.754), tied for third in doubles (135), second in runs scored (354), second in home runs (94), first in walks (274) and strikeouts (719).
FanGraphs updated the Steamer projections for the 2016 season for the players on each team’s 40-man roster. Steamer is a projection system for baseball player statistics and should not be viewed as anything more.
With 18 days left until pitchers and catchers report to Mesa, here are the updated position player projections for the Chicago Cubs …
Anthony Rizzo
- .279/.374/.519/.893 – 5.0
- PA: 644; H: 154; 2B: 33; 3B: 2; HR: 32; BB: 72; SO: 108; R: 92; RBI: 98
Kris Bryant
- .273/.360/.507/.868 – 5.5
- PA: 632; H: 150; 2B: 29; 3B: 3; HR: 31; BB: 70; SO: 179; R: 87; RBI: 96
Kyle Schwarber
- .261/.345/.474/.819 – 2.8
- PA: 541; H: 124; 2B: 21; 3B: 2; HR: 25; BB: 57; SO: 135; R: 72; RBI: 75
Jason Heyward
- .284/.362/.449/.810 – 4.9
- PA: 657; H: 163; 2B: 34; 3B: 3; HR: 18; BB: 67; SO: 100; R: 90; RBI: 71
Ben Zobrist
- .273/.356/.424/.780 – 3.0
- PA: 548; H: 130; 2B: 31; 3B: 2; HR: 12; BB: 61; SO: 70; R: 72; RBI: 54
Jorge Soler
- .260/.324/.440/.764 – 1.1
- PA: 489; H: 114; 2B: 24; 3B: 2; HR: 17; BB: 40; SO: 123; R: 55; RBI: 63
Addison Russell
- .247/.307/.394/.701 – 2.2
- PA: 531; H: 118; 2B: 27; 3B: 2; HR: 14; BB: 39; SO: 127; R: 56; RBI: 59
Javier Baez
- .252/.302/.457/.759 – 1.4
- PA: 333; H: 77; 2B: 14; 3B: 1; HR: 15; BB: 19; SO: 93; R: 39; RBI: 46
Miguel Montero
- .244/.333/.379/.712 – 1.6
- PA: 358; H: 76; 2B: 14; 3B: 0; HR: 9; BB: 39; SO: 80; R: 36; RBI: 38
David Ross
- .197/.275/.316/.591 – 0.0
- PA: 137; H: 24; 2B: 5; 3B: 0; HR: 3; BB: 13; SO: 45; R: 12; RBI: 13
Chris Coghlan
- .247/.328/.388/.716 – 0.5
- PA: 307; H: 67; 2B: 14; 3B: 2; HR: 6; BB: 31; SO: 60; R: 31; RBI: 32
Tommy La Stella
- .277/.343/.379/.722 – 0.3
- PA: 180; H: 44; 2B: 9; 3B: 1; HR: 2; BB: 16; SO: 19; R: 18; RBI: 17
Matt Szczur
- .248/.299/.344/.643 – -0.2
- PA: 98; H: 22; 2B: 4; 3B: 0; HR: 1; BB: 6; SO: 18; R: 9; RBI: 9
Arismendy Alcantara
- .237/.286/.385/.687 – 0.2
- PA: 103; H: 23; 2B: 4; 3B: 1; HR: 3; BB: 6; SO: 26; R: 11; RBI: 11
Key: Player – Batting Avg./OBP – On-Base Percentage/SLG – Slugging Percentage/OPS – On-Base Plus Slugging – WAR – PA-Plate Appearances; H-Hits; 2B-Doubles; 3B-Triples; HR-Home Runs; BB-Walks; SO-Strikeouts; R-Runs; RBI-Runs Batted In
The other position players currently on the Cubs’ 40-man roster: Christian Villanueva, Willson Contreras, Jeimer Candelario and Dan Vogelbach, the projection system thinks will make less than 100 plate appearances in the big leagues during the upcoming season.
• FanGraphs – 2016 Cubs Steamer Projections – Position Players