FanGraphs posted an early look, based on individual Steamer Projections, at each team’s win-loss record for the upcoming season.
Dave Cameron pointed out that “probably to no one’s surprise, the Cubs currently stand atop the projections with a 95-67 record.” FanGraphs has Joe Maddon’s team winning the most games in baseball after adding Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, John Lackey and Adam Warren to a roster that already included Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
The Cubs have a better team on paper but are not projected to win as many games as a year ago.
FanGraphs does not mention this, but a lot of things on the baseball field went the Cubs way a year ago, plus Jake Arrieta had a second half that no other pitcher in the history of the game has ever equaled. To just arbitrarily add to the Cubs win total without considering all factors as well as looking at the numbers, would be ill advised. Remember, this is baseball. And absolutely nothing can be predicted.
It is too early to be projecting a team’s win-loss total for the upcoming season. During a typical winter, these projections would still be a little premature. But with so much to still be determined, from free agent signings to trades, these projections will likely look a lot different by the time pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training.
Teams are still talking and those conversations, plus free agents signing with teams, should impact the projections and ultimately win-loss totals for the upcoming season.
According to FanGraphs, the Cubs (95-67) and Red Sox (92-70) would have the best records in each league, with the Cubs ending the 162-game schedule with the most wins in the game.
Here’s how FanGraphs, during the second week of January, estimated the win-loss records for the 2016 season …
National League
East
- Washington Nationals – 88-74
- New York Mets – 84-78
- Miami Marlins – 81-81
- Atlanta Braves – 67-95
- Philadelphia Phillies – 66-96
Central
- Chicago Cubs – 95-67
- St. Louis Cardinals – 84-78
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 83-79
- Cincinnati Reds – 73-89
- Milwaukee Brewers – 71-91
West
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 90-72
- San Francisco Giants – 86-76
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 79-83
- Colorado Rockies – 75-87
- San Diego Padres – 73-89
American League
East
- Boston Red Sox – 92-70
- New York Yankees – 86-76
- Toronto Blue Jays – 84-78
- Tampa Bay Rays – 82-80
- Baltimore Orioles – 76-86
Central
- Cleveland Indians – 85-77
- Chicago White Sox – 81-81
- Detroit Tigers – 79-83
- Kansas City Royals – 79-83
- Minnesota Twins – 78-84
West
- Houston Astros – 86-76
- Seattle Mariners – 84-78
- Texas Rangers – 83-79
- Los Angeles Angels – 81-81
- Oakland Athletics – 79-83
It cannot be stressed enough how early these win-loss projections are. Case in point is the Kansas City Royals. Dayton Moore is still working on the roster and based on their current roster, the Royals will be better than a .500 team and competing for an AL Central crown.
Based on the projections, the three division winners in the National League would be the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers with the Giants and Cardinals squaring off in the NL Wild Card Game.
In the Junior Circuit, the division winners would be the Red Sox, Indians and Astros with the Yankees facing the Blue Jays or Mariners in the American League Wild Card Game.
2016 Player Projections
- ZiPS Projections for the 2016 Chicago Cubs
- Steamer Projections – Position Player Projections for the 2016 Chicago Cubs
- Steamer Projections – Pitching Staff Projections for the 2016 Chicago Cubs