FanGraphs posted the Cubs’ ZiPS Projections for next season and the numbers look slightly different from the Steamer Projections for the position players and pitchers.
Dan Szymborski developed the computer-based projection system (sZymborski Projection System) that uses an intricate formula to provide an estimate for the most notable pitching and hitting stats.
ZiPS is projecting a .271/.369/.502 line for Anthony Rizzo with 32 home runs and a .263/.362/.485 season for Kris Bryant with 29 home runs. As for Kyle Schwarber, ZiPS projects a .250/.337/.496 line with 32 home runs and a 2.4 zWAR.
The two newest Cubs, Ben Zobrist (.273/.356/.439) and Jason Heyward (.274/.352/.433) look to have good years at the plate according to ZiPS with a 3.2 and 4.7 zWAR respectively.
On the pitching side, ZiPS projects a solid season for the Cubs rotation of Jake Arrieta (2.56 ERA, 2.87 FIP), Jon Lester (2.98 ERA, 3.11 FIP), John Lackey (3.34 ERA, 3.11 FIP), Jason Hammel (3.93 ERA, 4.06 FIP) and Kyle Hendricks (3.61 ERA, 3.66 FIP).
Here’s a look at only nine stats for position players and pitchers, plus the zWAR for the next season. For the full report from FanGraphs, click here or on the links below. Projections are just that, projections, and should be treated as such. The games that count do not begin for another 95 days.
2016 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs – (Includes zWAR and comps for each player)
Position Players - Cubs 2016 ZiPS Projections
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | H | 2B | 3B | HR | zWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Rizzo | 674 | .271 | .369 | .502 | .871 | 156 | 33 | 2 | 32 | 4.8 |
| Kris Bryant | 658 | .263 | .362 | .485 | .847 | 148 | 28 | 5 | 29 | 5.7 |
| Jason Heyward | 613 | .274 | .352 | .433 | .785 | 149 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 4.7 |
| Ben Zobrist | 560 | .273 | .356 | .439 | .795 | 133 | 31 | 4 | 14 | 3.2 |
| Addison Russell | 500 | .252 | .307 | .413 | .720 | 116 | 26 | 3 | 14 | 2.8 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 586 | .250 | .337 | .496 | .833 | 128 | 22 | 4 | 32 | 2.4 |
| Javier Baez | 526 | .248 | .301 | .443 | .744 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 2.3 |
| Miguel Montero | 458 | .232 | .325 | .358 | .683 | 92 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 2.0 |
| Arismendy Alcantara | 585 | .231 | .280 | .402 | .682 | 124 | 26 | 9 | 16 | 1.6 |
| Jorge Soler | 385 | .261 | .327 | .455 | .782 | 90 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 1.1 |
| Tommy La Stella | 343 | .267 | .333 | .375 | .708 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 1.0 |
| Chris Coghlan | 435 | .244 | .323 | .395 | .718 | 94 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 0.9 |
| David Ross | 160 | .177 | .259 | .312 | .571 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0.3 |
| Matt Szczur | 482 | .249 | .300 | .345 | .645 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 0.8 |
| Christian Villanueva | 539 | .242 | .289 | .397 | .686 | 120 | 28 | 2 | 15 | 1.4 |
Both the Steamer Projections and ZiPS Projections are pointing to the Cubs offense having a good year.
Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber would be the team leaders, according to ZiPS, with 32 home runs. Kris Bryant would be just behind Rizzo and Schwarber with 29 longballs. And ZiPS projects Bryant and Schwarber to drive in more than 100 runs each.
While it is unclear how Joe Maddon will use Javier Baez, ZiPS thinks he will be a big contributor during the 2016 season.
On the pitching side, both projection systems see the Cubs’ rotation (Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks) having solid seasons … and ZiPS projects all five starters to finish the year with an ERA less than 4.00 (Arrieta: 2.56; Lester: 2.98; Lackey: 3.34; Hammel: 3.93; Hendricks: 3.61).
- Position Player Projections for the 2016 Chicago Cubs (Steamer Projections)
- Pitching Staff Projections for the 2016 Chicago Cubs (Steamer Projections)
Pitchers - Cubs 2016 ZiPS Projections
| Player | G | GS | IP | K | BB | H | HR | ERA | FIP | zWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Arrieta | 30 | 30 | 186.3 | 194 | 50 | 145 | 13 | 2.56 | 2.87 | 5.4 |
| Jon Lester | 30 | 30 | 199.0 | 194 | 46 | 174 | 17 | 2.98 | 3.11 | 4.6 |
| John Lackey | 28 | 28 | 183.0 | 156 | 42 | 170 | 20 | 3.34 | 3.58 | 3.4 |
| Jason Hammel | 26 | 25 | 144.3 | 125 | 36 | 138 | 19 | 3.93 | 4.06 | 1.6 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 28 | 28 | 159.7 | 125 | 40 | 154 | 14 | 3.61 | 3.66 | 2.5 |
| Adam Warren | 47 | 8 | 101.7 | 92 | 31 | 87 | 7 | 3.01 | 3.28 | 1.9 |
| Travis Wood | 40 | 19 | 135.7 | 127 | 52 | 125 | 14 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 1.4 |
| Trevor Cahill | 36 | 18 | 115.0 | 99 | 53 | 112 | 12 | 4.38 | 4.26 | 0.5 |
| Clayton Richard | 20 | 10 | 67.0 | 37 | 17 | 73 | 8 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 0.1 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 39 | 0 | 47.0 | 59 | 31 | 36 | 3 | 3.45 | 3.52 | 0.3 |
| Neil Ramirez | 40 | 0 | 33.7 | 36 | 14 | 27 | 3 | 2.94 | 3.34 | 0.5 |
| Pedro Strop | 67 | 0 | 59.0 | 71 | 24 | 43 | 5 | 2.75 | 3.13 | 0.9 |
| Hector Rondon | 64 | 0 | 64.0 | 62 | 18 | 55 | 5 | 2.95 | 3.08 | 0.9 |
| Justin Grimm | 69 | 0 | 59.0 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 5 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 0.8 |
| Rex Brothers | 68 | 0 | 58.3 | 70 | 42 | 45 | 5 | 3.55 | 4.14 | 0.3 |
| Zac Rosscup | 51 | 0 | 46.7 | 59 | 24 | 37 | 5 | 3.47 | 3.63 | 0.3 |
| Spencer Patton | 52 | 0 | 64.3 | 73 | 26 | 55 | 9 | 3.92 | 4.06 | 0.0 |
As the disclaimer on FanGraphs states, ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performances and they have not been allocated to predict playing time in the majors. The complete list of players with ZiPS projects includes several players that are not on the Cubs 40-man roster and a majority of those players are very unlikely to play in the majors during the 2016 season.