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Chicago Cubs Online > Cubs Off-Season News Reports > ZiPS Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs

ZiPS Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs

January 26, 2015 1:00 pm By Neil 11 Comments

As the start of Spring Training quickly approaches, projections for the upcoming season are becoming more and more prevalent.

Beyond the odds in Las Vegas that are not based on past on-field performance, several outlets are projecting Joe Maddon’s team to be around .500 and possibly push for spot in the NL Wild Card Game.

The latest Steamer Projections on FanGraphs sees the Cubs winning 84 games in 2015.

FanGraphs posted the Cubs’ ZiPS projections for the upcoming season last Friday.

Dan Szymborski developed the computer-based projection system (sZymborski Projection System) that uses an intricate formula to provide an estimate for the most notable pitching and hitting stats.

ZiPS is projecting a .269/.358/.493 line for Anthony Rizzo with 30 home runs and a .286/.328/.429 season for Starlin Castro. As for the even younger Cubs, would flirting with a 20 home run season for Arismendy Alcantara help the offense? Or maybe a 30-home run season for Javier Baez to go along with a rather low OBP? And ZiPS includes a .256/.339/.500 line with 29 home runs for Kris Bryant.

PrintOn the pitching side, ZiPS projects a solid season for the Cubs rotation of Jon Lester (3.11 ERA, 3.28 FIP), Jake Arrieta (3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP), Jason Hammel (3.89 ERA, 3.96 FIP) and Kyle Hendricks (3.54 ERA, 3.52 FIP).

Here’s a look at only nine of the available stats for position players and pitchers for the upcoming season. For the full report from FanGraphs, click here or on the links below. Projections are just that, projections, and should be treated as such. The games that count do not begin for another 69 days.

2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs – (Includes zWAR and comps for each player)

Position Players - Cubs 2015 ZiPS Projections

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGOPSH2B3BHR
Anthony Rizzo651.269.358.493.85115333230
Starlin Castro674.286.328.429.75718035515
Javier Baez650.233.283.447.73014030430
Kris Bryant557.256.339.500.83912625429
Mike Olt423.208.288.387.6757817116
Tommy La Stella459.267.337.365.7021092234
Arismendy Alcantara645.249.297.433.73014834919
Dexter Fowler526.265.371.402.77311819610
Miguel Montero529.240.333.367.70011020112
David Ross149.195.265.383.64826706
Jorge Soler345.252.310.460.7707923312
Chris Coghlan430.247.318.380.698952247
Chris Denorfia395.260.315.370.680941636
Junior Lake451.246.287.378.66510420310
Welington Castillo417.246.317.393.7109219012
Ryan Sweeney266.255.311.387.698621325

Both the Steamer Projections and ZiPS Projections are pointing to Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro having a good season at the plate. And those same projections, based on past performance see Javier Baez struggling with getting on base while hitting more than his fair share of balls out of the park.

Jorge Soler’s production varies based on playing time due to his injury history. An OBP just north of .370 for Dexter Fowler would be welcome at the top of the lineup. And a 29-homer season for Kris Bryant in his big league debut would obviously give the offense a nice boost.

On the pitching side, both projection systems see the top four pitchers in the Cubs’ rotation (Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks) having solid years … and ZiPS projects all four starters to finish the year with an ERA less than 4.00 (Lester: 3.11; Arrieta: 3.67; Hammel: 3.89; Hendricks: 3.54).

  • Position Player Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs (Steamer Projections)
  • Pitching Staff Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs (Steamer Projections)

Pitchers – Cubs 2015 ZiPS Projections

PlayerGGSIPKBBHHRERAFIP
Jon Lester313120918753191173.113.28
Jake Arrieta292815514660137153.673.79
Jason Hammel252414111742135163.893.96
Kyle Hendricks282816611538164123.543.52
Travis Wood303017413767170214.314.43
Tsuyoshi Wada18171058832104134.044.11
Jacob Turner29231379148152174.954.53
Felix Doubront272212911352125144.214.11
Edwin Jackson272614612355155174.754.11
Hector Rondon4704946164443.493.27
Pedro Strop6405965264643.093.27
Neil Ramirez6105465264353.173.52
Jason Motte4604544134063.653.89
Justin Grimm7507069296253.603.46
Armando Rivero3805165244263.533.62
Zac Rosscup4404453283543.743.86
Joseph Ortiz3104125104344.173.95

As the disclaimer on FanGraphs stated, ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performances and they have not been allocated to predict playing time in the majors. The complete list of players with ZiPS projects includes several players that are not on the Cubs 40-man roster and a majority of those players are very unlikely to play in the majors during the 2015 season.

  • 2015 ZiPS Projections – Chicago Cubs
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Filed Under: Cubs Off-Season News Reports Tagged With: Cubs 2015 Projections, Cubs Projections, ZiPS Projections

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