Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections Wednesday … and PECOTA is calculating an 82-win season for the Cubs in 2015, nine more victories than a year ago.
According to PECOTA, the Cubs will finish the year with an 82-80 record, second in the NL Central and a game out of the second NL Wild Card spot. PECOTA projected a 71-91 season for the team in 2014 that ended up with a 73-89 record.
PECOTA thinks the Cubs will score 665 runs, give up 653 runs and finish with a .243/.309/.392 team slash line.
The PECOTA win total falls in line with the five to 10 game improvement that most are projecting for the Cubs during the upcoming season. Steamer Projections on FanGraphs thinks the Cubs will improve by 11 victories over last season and David Schoenfield sees the Cubs improving by 12 wins in 2015.
Based on PECOTA’s projections, the Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers will be the three division winners in the National League with both Wild Card teams coming out of the NL West in the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres.
Along with win-loss records for each team, Baseball Prospectus also posted projections for each player and playing time percentages based per defensive position.
Here’s how PECOTA predicts the 2015 season will play out, at least in the standings:
- Washington Nationals – 91-71
- New York Mets – 82-80
- Miami Marlins – 81-81
- Atlanta Braves – 74-88
- Philadelphia Phillies – 70-92
- St. Louis Cardinals – 89-73
- Chicago Cubs – 82-80
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 80-82
- Cincinnati Reds – 79-83
- Milwaukee Brewers – 79-83
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 97-65
- San Francisco Giants – 84-78
- San Diego Padres – 83-79
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 74-88
- Colorado Rockies – 72-90
- Boston Red Sox – 86-76
- Tampa Bay Rays – 86-76
- Toronto Blue Jays – 83-79
- New York Yankees – 80-82
- Baltimore Orioles – 78-84
- Detroit Tigers – 82-80
- Cleveland Indians – 81-81
- Chicago White Sox – 77-85
- Kansas City Royals – 72-90
- Minnesota Twins – 70-92
- Los Angeles Angels – 91-71
- Seattle Mariners – 87-75
- Oakland Athletics – 84-78
- Texas Rangers – 83-79
- Houston Astros – 77-85
Arismendy Alcantara is the only player on the Cubs roster that PECOTA projects to play three different positions and PECOTA projects only 199 plate appearances for Kris Bryant at the big league level. Here’s a breakout: Arismendy Alcantara (2B – 35%; CF – 15%; LF – 5%), Javier Baez (2B – 65%; SS – 10%; PH – 5%), Starlin Castro (SS – 90%), Kris Bryant (3B – 30%), Chris Coghlan (LF – 85%), Chris Denorfia (RF – 10%; LF – 10%; PH – 15%), Dexter Fowler (CF – 85%), Tommy La Stella (3B – 40%; PH – 20%), Miguel Montero (C – 80%), Mike Olt (3B – 30%; 1B – 15%), Anthony Rizzo (1B – 85%), Jorge Soler (RF – 85%), Welington Castillo (C – 5%) and David Ross (C – 15%)
Position Players - Cubs 2015 PECOTA Projections
|Tommy La Stella||302||.266||.341||.364||.705||3|
Pitchers – Cubs 2015 PECOTA Projections
Playing time and plate appearances seem low for several of the players and relievers. And Edwin Jackson starting more games than Kyle Hendricks also raises questions. Baseball Prospectus uses Depth Charts to build a team projection. The Depth Charts are playing time-weighted projections for each player which is used to build a team projection.
- ZiPS Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs
- Position Player Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs (Steamer Projections)
- Pitching Staff Projections for the 2015 Chicago Cubs (Steamer Projections)