Baseball Prospectus released its ranking of the top 10 prospects in the Cubs system. And Kris Bryant is not the best prospect in the organization. According to Baseball Prospectus, Addison Russell belongs in the No. 1 spot of the best system in the game.
Baseball Prospectus really likes Addison Russell and said a case could be made for Russell being the top prospect in the game. Jorge Soler, Albert Almora and Kyle Schwarber rounded out the top five. And two of the top 10 prospects in the system, according to Baseball Prospectus, are pitchers Pierce Johnson and Carson Sands.
Even with the promotions of Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara, the system is rather stacked with elite position player prospects that project extremely well at the highest level. And there is depth behind the well known names in the lower levels that should push their way up as players graduate to the majors.
While the pitchers in the Cubs’ system are often overlooked, behind Pierce Johnson, Carson Sands and C.J. Edwards, there are talented arms with upside such as Duane Underwood, Jen-Ho Tseng, Daury Torrez, Paul Blackburn, Corey Black, Ivan Pineyro, Jefferson Mejia, Jake Stinnett and Justin Steele.
And the top talent in the organization under the age of 25 is a rather impressive list starting with Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro that ends with Kyle Hendricks and Neil Ramirez.
Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 Cubs Prospects for 2015
2014 Ranking in Parenthesis, NR – not ranked, NA – not available
- Addison Russell – SS (NA)
- Kris Bryant – 3B (2)
- Jorge Soler – OF (4)
- Albert Almora – OF (3)
- Kyle Schwarber – C (NA)
- Billy McKinney – OF (NA)
- Pierce Johnson – RHP (7)
- Gleyber Torres – SS (NR)
- Dan Vogelbach – 1B (8)
- Carson Sands – LHP (NA)
Prospects on the Rise
- Justin Steele – LHP (NA)
- Jake Stinnett – RHP (NA)
- Mark Zagunis – C (NA)
Factors on the Farm
C.J. Edwards, Christian Villanueva and Arodys Vizcaino are the three players in the system that Baseball Prospectus thinks could contribute at the big league level in 2015.
The concern remains C.J. Edwards will not be able to hold up to a full season as a starter in the majors, despite mid-rotation upside, and the uncertainty of his future role moved him out of the top 10. Baseball Prospectus questions if Edwards would be a better fit in a late inning relief role where “his arsenal would play up and durability concerns would play down.” Edwards could provide innings in the Cubs pen if there is a need.
Christian Villanueva had a rough season and could be used in a trade after slipping in the system behind Addison Russell and Kris Bryant. Villanueva can field his position, the questions with him start at the plate.
Arodys Vizcaino should figure into the Cubs plan for the bullpen in 2015, especially with his elbow issues seemingly behind him. Baseball Prospectus sees Vizcaino in a late-inning role in the bullpen.
Top Talents in the Cubs’ System – 25 and Under
(Born 04/01/89 or later)
- Anthony Rizzo
- Starlin Castro
- Addison Russell
- Kris Bryant
- Javier Baez
- Jorge Soler
- Arismendy Alcantara
- Albert Almora
- Kyle Hendricks
- Neil Ramirez
With a majority of BP’s breakdown by subscription only, here are a few of the highlights of the top prospects in the Cubs’ system. Baseball Prospectus uses the 2-8 scale to grade players tools, the same as the 20-80 scouting scale.
1. Addison Russell, SS
- Age/DOB – 20/Jan. 23, 1994
- The Tools – 6 potential hit; 6 potential power; 5+ glove; 6 arm; 5 run
- Strengths – Impact potential with bat, has strong hands and barrel control; good bat speed; improved approach. Should have high contact rate in the majors; will hit for average and power. Solid at short; good hands; strong to left-side arm. Should be an average runner in the majors, smart on the bases.
- Weaknesses – Working on slowing down the game in the field; set-up and footwork can get loose; can be overly aggressive at the plate
- Overall Future Potential – 7; All-Star player
- Realistic Role – 6; first-division player
- ETA – 2015
2. Kris Bryant, 3B
- Age/DOB – 22/Jan. 4, 1992
- The Tools – 5+ potential hit; 7 power; 6+ arm, 5 glove
- Strengths – Elite raw power; big leverage and big-boy present strength; ability to produce regular hard contact; good plate coverage allowing for wide kill zone on mistake pitches. Borderline double-plus arm.
- Weaknesses – Long levers produce holes in swing that could be attacked by Major League arms; limited swing plane/pitch plane overlap narrows contact margin; some issues with velocity on inner half. Capable at third base, may lack lower-half agility for excel.
- Overall Future Potential – 7; All-Star player
- Realistic Role – 6; first-division player
- ETA – 2015
3. Jorge Soler, OF
- Age/DOB – 22/Feb. 25, 1992
- The Tools – 5 potential hit; 7 power; 6+ arm; 5 glove
- Strengths – Impact power potential; leveraged swing; punishes middle-in; good bat speed and foundation for solid hit. Right field profile with easy-plus arm and adequate feel-reads
- Weaknesses – Hit tool could limit playable power; in limited exposure has struggled to adjust to spin, particularly away; lacks significant pro reps and experience; failed to adjust when holes were exposed by Major League pitching; questions about durability
- Overall Future Potential – High 6; first-division player/All-Star
- Realistic Role – High 5; above average player
- ETA – Reached Majors in 2014
4. Albert Almora, OF
- Age/DOB – 20/April 16, 1994
- The Tools – 6 potential hit; 5+ potential power; 5 run; 6+ glove; 5+ arm
- Strengths – Near-elite bat-to-ball ability; added strength with plus raw power showing in BP; preternatural reads off the bat; efficient routes; solid arm; IQ should produce holds and kills at highest level; savvy reads and selective aggressiveness on the bases
- Weaknesses – Rudimentary approach at present; overly aggressive at the plate, too often leading to soft contact and limiting utility of pitch identification and strike-zone awareness; without refinement in approach could struggle to realize hit-tool potential; inconsistent day-to-day play
- Overall Future Potential – High6; first division player/All-Star
- Realistic Role – High 5; above average player
- ETA – 2016
5. Kyle Schwarber, C
- Age/DOB – 21/March 5, 1993
- The Tools – 5+ potential hit; 6 power
- Strengths – Advanced bat; plus-to-better raw power that plays in game due to plate coverage and strike zone awareness; solid bat speed; good bat-to-ball skills should help hit tool play average or better; positive reviews from Fall Instructs on progress behind the plate
- Weaknesses – Below average run and throw; long transfer and release hinders ability to control running game; unrefined receiver has struggled with advanced stuff in the past; limited profile defensively; below average outfield breaks reduce range in left; failure of bat to play to potential could significantly eat into overall value
- Overall Future Potential – 6; first-division player
- Realistic Role – 5; Major League regular
- ETA – 2016
6. Billy McKinney, OF
- Age/DOB – 20/Aug. 23, 1994
- The Tools – 6+ potential hit; 5 potential power
- Strengths – Natural feel for contact; good bat speed; opposite field capable; will flash some natural lift to pull; puts together mature at-bats; adequate glove and foot speed should play in left field
- Weaknesses – Evaluators divided on overall power potential; offensive profile could ultimately prove to be light in outfield corner; fringy arm with some strength; bat path can create coverage holes on inner half
- Overall Future Potential – 6; first-division player
- Realistic Role – 5; Major League regular
- ETA – 2017
7. Pierce Johnson, RHP
- Age/DOB – 23/May 10, 1991
- The Tools – 6 fastball; 6+ potential curveball; 5+ potential change-up; 5+ potential cutter
- Strengths – Loud stuff led by lively, low-90s fastball and sharp low-80s curveball; can dial it up to the mid-90s with regularity; capable of cutting fastball for different look; counterbalance to two-seamer; some deception; traditional starter’s build; flashed above average change with fade mirroring fastball action; showed improved command last two months of season
- Weaknesses – Working to find consistency in release, arm path complicating efforts; missed release can cause secondary pitches to spin and hang; cutter is potential weapon but can ride swing-plane contact when not properly finished; command currently below average; loose control in zone
- Overall Future Potential – 6; No. 3 starter
- Realistic Role – 5; No. 4 starter
- ETA – 2016
8. Gleyber Torres, SS
- Age/DOB – 17/Dec. 13, 1996
- The Tools – 6 potential hit; 6 arm; 5+ field; 5 run
- Strengths – Mature approach at the plate; keeps compact to contact and shows ability to work line to line; good hand and left-side arm; game projects across board; efficient barrel delivery produces hard contact and some power projection; high grades for work ethic and makeup
- Weaknesses – Lacks pro reps and experience; game can speed up on him; more comfortable in the box than in other areas; average foot speed; first step could limit range as matures
- Overall Future Potential – High 6; first-division player/All-Star
- Realistic Role – High 4; below average Major League player
- ETA – 2019
9. Dan Vogelbach, 1B
- Age/DOB – 21/Dec. 17, 1992
- The Tools – 5+ potential hit; 6+ potential power
- Strengths – Natural feel for contact and easy power to all fields; double-plus raw power; professional approach at the plate; capable of extending at bats and working to find pitches to drive
- Weaknesses – Bad body with non-existent value on the basepaths and in the field; DH profile in NL org; can get caught guessing behind in the count
- Overall Future Potential – 6; first-division player
- Realistic Role – 5; Major League regular
- ETA – 2016
10. Carson Sands, LHP
- Age/DOB – 19/March 28, 1995
- The Tools – 6 potential fastball; 5+ potential curveball; 5+ potential change
- Strengths – Balanced repertoire that features three above-average offerings and above-average command; reports of improved consistency in mechanics and arm action through instructs; comfort pitching to all four quadrants; some room to add velo band to firm plus in comfort zone; sturdy build and solid presence
- Weaknesses – Curve can flash but is inconsistent; some knocks for arm action; needs to demonstrate ability to maintain quality of stuff on pro schedule
- Overall Future Potential – High 6, No. 2 or 3 starter
- Realistic Role – High 4; No. 4 or 5 starter
- ETA – 2019
Baseball Prospectus closed its look at the Cubs system: “This may be the best system in baseball, providing impact and depth while boasting high-level talents ready to step out of the upper minors and into the bright lights at Wrigley. What’s more, the lower levels are flush with interesting profiles, making it possible that the organization could graduate a handful of its top prospects in 2015 without suffering any significant drop in system strength a year from now.”