Pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park in five days …
Baseball Prospectus released the first round of PECOTA projections on Monday. According to the projections, the Cubs will finish in fifth place in the National League Central with a 70-92 record. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are based on playing-time weighted projections for each player, which builds up a team projection. BP will adjust their team and player projections throughout the off-season leading up to Opening Day.
The same system projected the Cubs to win the central in 2009 with 92 wins and finish third in the division with a 77-85 record last season.
Here’s how PECOTA sees the 2011 MLB Season playing out:
National League
East
Philadelphia Phillies – 94-68
Atlanta Braves – 91-71
Florida Marlins – 81-81
New York Mets – 79-83
Washington Nationals – 69-93
Central
Cincinnati Reds – 93-69
St. Louis Cardinals – 85-77
Houston Astros – 76-86
Milwaukee Brewers – 75-87
Chicago Cubs – 70-92
Pittsburgh Pirates – 55-107
West
San Francisco Giants – 91-71
San Diego Padres – 90-72
Colorado Rockies – 89-73
Los Angeles Dodgers – 79-83
Arizona Diamondbacks – 67-95
American League
East
New York Yankees – 100-62
Tampa Bay Rays – 98-64
Boston Red Sox – 89-73
Toronto Blue Jays – 83-79
Baltimore Orioles – 62-100
Central
Minnesota Twins – 95-67
Chicago White Sox – 89-73
Detroit Tigers – 82-80
Cleveland Indians – 67-95
Kansas City Royals – 66-96
West
Texas Rangers – 91-71
Oakland A’s – 82-80
Los Angeles Angels – 78-84
Seattle Mariners – 62-100
PECOTA projects the Cubs to score 711 runs in the upcoming season with a .245 team batting average … the 711 runs would be middle of the pack in the NL. The PECOTA projection for the Cubs pitching staff is not as kind. BP sees the Cubs allowing 791 runs in the upcoming season, which would be the third highest in the league behind the Pirates (841) and Brewers (823).
Here are a few early PECOTA projections for the players. This information requires a subscription to Baseball Prospectus, which is well worth the investment. BP gives detailed projections from BABIP to FIP to WARP for every Major League player and several of the minor league prospects. These are just a handful of the stats provided by Baseball Prospectus.
Marlon Byrd – .283/.341/.428 with 31 doubles and 12 home runs
Starlin Castro – .285/.321/.386 with 24 doubles and 3 home runs
Tyler Colvin – .253/.299/.430 with 22 doubles and 17 home runs
Kosuke Fukudome – .256/.363/.394 with 25 doubles and 11 home runs
Carlos Pena – .230/.355/.469 with 21 doubles and 31 home runs
Aramis Ramirez – .280/.350/.485 with 27 doubles and 23 home runs
Alfonso Soriano – .264/.325/.479 with 32 doubles and 26 home runs
Geovany Soto – .274/.368/.474 with 23 doubles and 18 home runs
Andrew Cashner – 5-5 in 36 games, 11 starts, with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP
Ryan Dempster – 9-8 in 24 starts with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP
Matt Garza – 12-10 in 31 starts with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP
Carlos Marmol – 5-2 with 17 saves in 96 games with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP
Carlos Silva – 9-12 in 28 starts with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP
Randy Wells – 9-10 in 26 starts with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP
Kerry Wood – 2-1 with 11 saves in 47 games with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP
Carlos Zambrano – 12-11 in 31 starts with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP
The CCO will pass along the PECOTA projections as BP posts the updates.
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