Baseball America is viewed as the leader in ranking prospects and minor league systems. While publications like Baseball Prospectus have garnered a lot more respect in recent years, Baseball America remains the industry leader.
A good ranking by Baseball America can increase a player’s value overnight and that alone can be worth it’s weight in gold … or at least on the trade market. A well-stocked Minor League system with high praise from Baseball America can end up being the difference in general managers being able to land that missing piece or pieces that can put the big league team over the top.
The Cubs’ system has shown a lot of improvement since the hiring of Tim Wilken in December of 2005. Several prospects have either made it to Wrigley to help out the big league club or used in trades to acquire proven Major League talent.
Here is a look back at how Baseball America ranked the Cubs’ system from 2005-2010, with a top 10 list from each pre-season ranking … One of the many aspects of the game that has changed over the last decade is the value put on prospects and the importance of the First Year Player Draft. A bad draft or two can hurt an organization for years.
Organizations, as well as the so-called experts, can be wrong on “the can’t miss prospect” and sometimes players taken in the later rounds can end up being superstars. The bottom line is prospects are suspects, as the cliche goes, until they prove otherwise on the field, under the bright lights on the biggest stage.
The Cubs organization had an extremely up and down decade … especially since 2002. The Cubs went from having the best system in the game according to Baseball America in 2002 to dropping as low as 27th in 2009. And the impact talent they promoted to the majors was few and far between several years in a row.
Here are the Cubs top 10 prospects, along with a few notables that BA ranked in the top 30, for every season since 2005. Beside the year in parenthesis is how the Cubs talent stacked up in Baseball America’s pre-season rankings against the rest of the league. The players that made it all the way to Wrigley are linked (names in red) to their page on Baseball-Reference.com.
2005 (10)
1. Brian Dopirak, 1B
2. Felix Pie, OF
3. Ryan Harvey, OF
4. Angel Guzman, RHP
5. Billy Petrick, RHP
6. Renyel Pinto, LHP
7. Sean Marshall, LHP
8. Jon Leicester, RHP
9. Grant Johnson, RHP
10. Jason Dubois, OF/1B
2006 (15)
1. Felix Pie, OF
2. Mark Pawelek, LHP
3. Ronny Cedeno, SS
4. Angel Guzman, RHP
5. Rich Hill, LHP
6. Sean Marshall, LHP
7. Ryan Harvey, OF
8. Brian Dopirak, 1B
8. Eric Patterson, 2B
10. Carlos Marmol, RHP
2006 Notables in Top 20 – Donald Veal, LHP (11), Sean Gallagher, RHP (12), Jae-Kuk Ryu, RHP (14), Brandon Sing, 1B/OF (15), Geovany Soto, C (16), Billy Petrick, RHP (18)
2007 (18)
1. Felix Pie, OF
2. Donald Veal, LHP
3. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
4. Tyler Colvin, OF
5. Sean Gallagher, RHP
6. Eric Patterson, 2B
7. Scott Moore, 3B
8. Ryan Harvey, OF
9. Chris Huseby, RHP
10. Mark Pawelek, LHP
2007 Notables in Top 30 – Juan Mateo, RHP (11), Jae-Kuk Ryu, RHP (13), Rocky Cherry, RHP (16), Geovany Soto, C (17), Billy Petrick, RHP (18), Jake Fox, C (24), Sam Fuld, OF (27), Mitch Atkins, RHP (29), Mike Fontenot, 2B (30)
2008 (18)
1. Josh Vitters, 3B
2. Geovany Soto, C
3. Tyler Colvin, OF
4. Jose Ceda, RHP
5. Sean Gallagher, RHP
6. Donald Veal, LHP
7. Josh Donaldson, C
8. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
9. Tony Thomas, 2B
10. Kevin Hart, RHP
2008 Notables in Top 30 – Billy Petrick, RHP (11), Eric Patterson, 2B/OF (12), Kyler Burke, OF (13), Welington Castillo, C (15), Sam Fuld, OF (18), Jake Fox, OF/1B/C (19), James Russell, LHP (22), Darwin Barney, SS (24), Jose Ascanio, RHP (25), Steve Clevenger, C/1B (29)
2009 (27)
1. Josh Vitters, 3B
2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
3. Andrew Cashner, RHP
4. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP
5. Welington Castillo, C
6. Kevin Hart, RHP
7. Starlin Castro, SS/2B
8. Ryan Flaherty, SS
9. Jay Jackson, RHP
10. Hak-Ju Lee, SS
2009 Notables in Top 30 – Steve Clevenger, C/1B (11), Micah Hoffpauir, 1B/OF (12), Brandon Guyer, OF (13), Junior Lake, SS (14), Tyler Colvin, OF (16), Marcos Mateo, RHP (17), Chris Carpenter, RHP (18), Darwin Barney, SS (19), Marquez Smith, 3B (20), Mitch Atkins, RHP (21), Esmailin Caridad, RHP (22), Tony Thomas, 2B (23) Jake Fox, 1B/OF (24), Logan Watkins, 2B (28)
2010 (15)
1. Starlin Castro, SS
2. Brett Jackson, OF
3. Josh Vitters, 3B
4. Andrew Cashner, RHP
5. Jay Jackson, RHP
6. Hak-Ju Lee, SS
7. Logan Watkins, 2B
8. Chris Carpenter, RHP
9. Ryan Flaherty, IF
10. D.J. LeMahieu, SS/2B
2010 Notables in Top 30 – Rafael Dolis, RHP (13), Chris Archer, RHP (15), Trey McNutt, RHP (16), Tyler Colvin, OF (17), Darwin Barney, SS (18), Esmailin Caridad, RHP (22), Sam Fuld, OF (23), Marcos Mateo, RHP (24), Casey Coleman, RHP (25), Robinson Chirinos, C (26), Welington Castillo, C (27), Junior Lake, SS (29), James Adduci, OF (30)
It is easy to see the Cubs’ system has turned out Major League talent but clearly the names that stick out are Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot.
Marmol, Marshall and Soto were signed and developed by the Cubs while Fontenot came over from the Orioles in the Sammy Sosa deal. Players such as Andrew Cashner, Starlin Castro and Tyler Colvin had solid first years … but the book is still out on the soon-to-be second year players.
A prospect’s perceived value sometimes ends up bringing more to the big league club than wins, strikeouts, RBI or home runs produced between the lines. Every off-season the prospects are ranked. Some end up being overvalued and some end up being undervalued but the bottom line is a player must perform on the field. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don’t and sometimes they get traded away … but that’s why they play the game.
