Well, I was working with some numbers dealing with Dempster, Caridad, and Fukudome. But I'll get to them later for now.
Now, here's an interesting opinion, from the Sun Times:
"Peavy will make the rotation stronger and deeper, but he isn't the answer to the Cubs' postseason woes."
Reason?
"Peavy spent nearly a month on the DL last season... sounds like Rich Harden, which isn't necessarily a bad thing -- at least during the regular season. Harden lost a playoff game, too."
And more?
"Peavy has benefited from playing in Petco Park, one of the pitcher-friendliest parks in the majors."
http://blogs.suntimes.com/fullcourtpress/2008/12/peavy_to_the_cubs_what_does_th.html
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I can't speak much about injury, but I do know where Peavy plays. He plays in the most extreme pitcher's park in Major League since 2004, Petco Park.
The reason why authors like Sun Time's Modrowski undervalue Jake Peavy is because of his road-home split. But they often forgot that Jake also plays in the most extreme hitter-friendly division in MLB.
Coors Field (high elevation, thin air). Chase Field (desert, thin air), Dodger Stadium (not as extreme as Coors, not as "hitter-proven" as Chase, but after they resized their outfield around 2005, it has turned hitter friendly).
The only exception would be Whatever-Telecom-Firm Park the Giants played. Its extreme irregular shape and tough brick wall became a visiting outfielder's nightmare, and garnered one of the most double-productive parks in the league. But Baseball Reference also tells us that AT&T is neutral. So, let's claim it neutral.
So how does Peavy fair in his division, away from Petco?
In 6 years and 263.2 career innings played in the four fore-mentioned parks, Jake is:
ERA 4.37
walks 101, or a ratio of 3.45 walks per 9 Innings Played (BB9)
strikeouts 208, or 7.10K per 9 IP (K9)
These include Jake's rookie year, when he were figuring things out. It's noteworthy that since then, in the last 5 years, he's been controlling his ERA in his division (sin home) around 4.00, raised his K9 to 8.50. Though, we have a legitimate concern of his overall trend of giving away more free passes, for the last three seasons...
How about an honorary mention of the Cubs ace, Zambrano, who's about Jake's age? Is he great in NL West?
In 102 IP, Big Z got:
ERA 3.53
walks per nine 3.79
K9, 7.24
Granted, this is a much smaller sample size (we ask at least 3000 pitches, or 200 innings under certain conditions, like a selected ballpark or under one team, before making a REAL conclusion).
But that's not bad. Z probably got some luck (or better defense during the Baker regime), with sub-par walk and strikeout rates, compared to Peavy's. Yet again, as a sinkerballer, that's expected. Z didn't work as many K as Peavy in order to get batters out.
There's of course more to it, but I'll keep it as this is now. Peavy is not as bad on the road as some thought. He should deserve some ace status even away from Petco.
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Great points. I think Peavy would help the Cubs, just not at the cost rumored. The Chicago media is going to put a positive spin on this, same as Brian Roberts.
From other comments I have heard and read today...I do not think it is 'dead' yet and I think they will continue to talk....
Hi, Neil. Yeah, the talk is not heading the right direction.
And I can see that Peavy was frustrated. This is baseball business, but he's ready to come and play for us. He's all hyped up. It's funny that you mentioned Brian Roberts. It's the opposite kind of feeling DeRo had last offseason. He thought he's staying with us, but we might ship him away when Roberts come. And he felt hurt. Peavy, I bet he thought he gave Towers a hometown discount in his renewed contract, but the office wanted him go. Fine, at least he can go to where he'll hang out with Oswalt*. But no. All his singing of "Go Cubs Go" and his autographs on Cubs caps, they mean nothing now. The business side of pro-baseball... sigh...
Also, after read all the interviews with Peavy's agent that you posted, I see that the point of disagreement might come mainly with Jason Marquis.
GM Hendry was probably not happy with Towers' demand of the Cubs paying more of Marquis' $9.875M contract, perhaps a demand of 4M or more. Towers would get 4-5 good prospects, and while Hendry dumps him a sinkerballer, 5th of the rotation who can go wild, Towers asked for more.
But didn't Hendry sign that contract at first place?
Anyway, at least Hendry kept some consistency this time with his promised "left-hand outfielder", whoever that should be.
*Peavy and Roy Oswalt (Astros' ace) joint-purchased a 500-acre hunting ground in southwestern Illinois, according to CBS. They are good buddies, Southerners who love hunting. Too bad he'll needa wait a long time before coming over and hunt with his pitcher friend.
Source:
http://scott-miller.blogs.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270335/7424932
Hmm, I just read the same news from different sources. The Tribune seems to stress on Towers asking too MANY prospects, instead of too MUCH as a cost.
Well, I doubt the GM was a fool who'll expect a team to give up Marshall with Vitters and two other prospects. If that's true, then Towers was not serious on selling Peavy.
Peavy would love to come, and the winter is still long. I know this is not Hendry's priority. But what's not? The best pitching brings a team deep into postseason, period.
On mlbrumors it listed Marshall as one of the stoppoing points. Towers really wanted him but we didn't want to let him go. Marshall is good, and if he's included, a Vitters and a Cedeno should have been enough to get Peavy. He was asking for way too much.