PECOTA Projects Improvement for the Cubs

Baseball Prospectus released their first PECOTA projections for the upcoming season on Monday. And while the projections point to the Cubs finishing last in the NL Central, PECOTA projects the Cubs to make a 16 game improvement over last season’s miserable 61-101 record.

PECOTA thinks the Cubs will post a 77-85 record, two games back of the Brewers and Pirates for third place in the central and seven behind the second place Cardinals. PECOTA has the Reds running away with the division and posting the second best record in the Senior Circuit.

Baseball Prospectus uses Depth Charts to build a team projection. The Depth Charts are playing time-weighted projections for each player which then build up to a team projection.

PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to score 664 runs while allowing 706 runs and hit .244/.302/.396 as a team.

According to PECOTA, the Nationals, Reds and Dodgers will be the division winners in the National League with the Giants finishing with the fourth best record in the NL. PECOTA has the Cardinals and Diamondbacks finishing with an 84-78 record, tied for the fifth and final playoff spot.

Here’s how PECOTA projects the standings to look like at the end of the 2013 season:

National League

East

  1. Washington Nationals – 88-74
  2. Atlanta Braves – 82-80
  3. New York Mets – 80-82
  4. Philadelphia Phillies – 80-82
  5. Miami Marlins – 66-96

Central

  1. Cincinnati Reds – 92-70
  2. St. Louis Cardinals – 84-78
  3. Milwaukee Brewers – 79-83
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates – 79-83
  5. Chicago Cubs – 77-85

West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 93-69
  2. San Francisco Giants – 85-77
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks – 84-78
  4. San Diego Padres – 76-86
  5. Colorado Rockies – 72-90

American League

East

  1. New York Yankees – 92-70
  2. Boston Red Sox – 86-76
  3. Tampa Bay Rays – 86-76
  4. Toronto Blue Jays – 85-77
  5. Baltimore Orioles – 74-88

Central

  1. Detroit Tigers – 92-70
  2. Cleveland Indians – 80-82
  3. Chicago White Sox – 77-85
  4. Kansas City Royals – 76-86
  5. Minnesota Twins – 66-96

West

  1. Los Angeles Angels – 90-72
  2. Texas Rangers – 87-75
  3. Oakland Athletics – 83-79
  4. Seattle Mariners – 79-83
  5. Houston Astros – 63-99

Click Here for Baseball Prospectus’ Depth Charts

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