ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Chicago Cubs

FanGraphs posted the Cubs’ ZiPS projections for the upcoming season last week … and if the projections are anywhere near accurate three players on the Cubs’ roster will have an excellent 2013 season.

ZiPS is projecting All-Star type seasons from Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo with Jeff Samardzija posting a 3.62 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with 172 strikeouts in 169 innings over 27 starts. ZiPS is projecting Castro to put together a .294/.332/.446/.778 slash line with 31 doubles, 12 triples and 14 home runs while Rizzo will lead the Cubs in home runs with 31 while posting a .279/.349/.503/.852 slash line with 32 doubles and two triples in 642 plate appearances.

Here is how ZiPS projects the Cubs’ 40-Man roster to perform in 2013 …

Dan Szymborski developed the computer-based projection system (sZymborski Projection System) that uses an intricate formula to give an estimate for the most notable pitching and hitting stats. Click here for the complete ZiPS projections for the 2013 Chicago Cubs … that includes an estimated WAR for each player.

Pitching Staff

Slash line key: G/GS/ERA/IP/SO/BB/H/BABIP/FIP

  • Scott Baker – 19/18/3.95/112/100/30/111/.296/3.82
  • Scott Feldman – 25/17/4.31/109/79/31/115/.299/3.87
  • Matt Garza – 25/25/3.68/152/140/48/140/.283/3.69
  • Edwin Jackson – 30/30/3.91/188/159/60/183/.292/3.66
  • Jeff Samardzija – 27/27/3.62/169/172/54/153/.288/3.52
  • Travis Wood – 31/30/4.53/171/135/59/175/.292/4.39
  • Michael Bowden – 56/0/4.26/70/63/36/65/.285/4.37
  • Shawn Camp – 65/0/3.92/65/43/19/66/.289/3.72
  • Rafael Dolis – 54/0/4.90/65/44/35/66/.293/4.71
  • Kyuji Fujikawa – 54/0/3.38/51/57/19/44/.295/3.37
  • Carlos Marmol – 67/0/3.36/65/91/46/46/.297/3.61
  • Hector Rondon – 5/4/4.73/14/11/5/14/.301/4.75
  • James Russell – 72/0/3.92/69/56/24/67/.292/3.39
  • Alberto Cabrera – 72/0 /4.20/80/83/39/73/.298/4.07
  • Lendy Castillo – 22/6/4.79/42/33/20/43/.304/4.81
  • Trey McNutt – 29/18/6.22/89/52/53/107/.312/5.84
  • Brooks Raley – 23/23/5.58/120/65/48/146/.315/5.58
  • Chris Rusin – 27/26/5.16/135/79/54/154/.305/4.85
  • Arodys Vizcaino – 48/0/3.83/45/46/17/42/.303/3.77
  • Robert Whitenack – 15/15/5.53/57/32/33/63/.293/5.52

Click Here for Complete ZiPS Projections on FanGraphs

Position Players

Slash line key: PA/BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/BABIP/H/2B/3B/HR

  • Anthony Rizzo – 642/.279/.349/.503/.852/.311/160/32/2/31
  • Darwin Barney – 607/.270/.308/.360/.668/.298/153/26/5/5
  • Starlin Castro – 680/.294/.332/.446/.778/.321/187/31/12/14
  • Ian Stewart – 328/.210/.296/.376/.672/.270/61/11/2/11
  • Alfonso Soriano – 533/.249/.300/.470/.770/.284/131/27/2/26
  • David DeJesus – 507/.262/.341/.399/.740/.297/117/22/6/9
  • Nate Schierholtz – 312/.261/.315/.415/.730/.291/74/14/3/8
  • Welington Castillo – 375/.240/.309/.398/.707/.297/81/17/0/12
  • Dioner Navarro – 200/.246/.305/.374/.679/.270/44/9/1/4
  • Luis Valbuena – 548/.247/.319/.378/.697/.301/121/27/2/11
  • Dave Sappelt – 617/.267/.316/.381/.697/.307/151/28/6/8
  • Tony Campana – 441/.262/.306/.314/.620/.339/106/12/3/1
  • Steve Clevenger – 357/.261/.309/.361/.670/.300/86/20/2/3
  • Junior Lake – 522/.254/.295/.383/.678/.339/124/23/5/10
  • Christian Villanueva – 590/.236/.290/.362/.652/.283/127/26/3/12
  • Josh Vitters – 596/.262/.305/.413/.718/.294/145/29/2/17
  • Logan Watkins – 602/.245/.315/.354/.669/.305/131/18/8/8
  • Brett Jackson – 626/.230/.317/.403/.720/.339/126/24/10/17
  • Jorge Soler – (none)
  • Matt Szczur – 562/.256/.312/.361/.673/.300/132/24/6/6/6

Click Here for Complete ZiPS Projections on FanGraphs

It is highly unlikely that Christian Villanueva, Jorge Soler and Matt Szczur will see anytime with the Cubs next season and the same could be said about Robert Whitenack. Those three players are simply too far away from the big leagues and Whitenack would have pick-up where he left off before his Tommy John surgery in 2011 and pitch lights out with the I-Cubs before he would be called up to the big league team.

As the disclaimer on FanGraphs pointed out, ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performances and they have not been allocated to predict playing time in the majors. The complete list of players with ZiPS projections includes many that are not on the Cubs 40-man roster and a majority of those players are unlikely to play in the Major Leagues next season.

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