… And About Those Cubs Prospects Lists

Over the past weeks, fans have been treated to an annual ritual, the posting of the organizational rankings by Baseball America (henceforth to be known as BA) and Baseball Prospectus. This year’s rankings have generated concerns by Cubs fans as to the state of the minor leagues and the organization as a whole. To accompany the publishing of these lists, the CCO linked our article from January of this year highlighting BA’s Top Ten Cubs Prospects from 2005 to present. While looking these over, I was able to spot both trends and inconsistencies in these rankings, especially from BA.

A lot of the anxiety over this year’s list centers on BAs inclusion of recent draftees Javier Baez, Dillon Maples, and Dan Vogelbach. However, this shouldn’t be a shock to readers. Since 2005, 20 of the 80 players, including this year’s top ten, named to the BA’s top ten were former first round draft picks. Eight first round draft picks were named to the list before they played a professional game, including six in the top five. Thirteen players were named to the top ten before they had any professional experience, including draftees and international signings. Of the draftees listed by BA to be in the top ten in a given year, over twenty-five percent have never made it to the majors. In a way, it makes you almost feel sorry for Baez, Maples, and Vogelbach. If BA’s trend holds true, then one of these players will never make it to the big leagues.

The lists also seem to short-change international signings, although BA is a bigger culprit. Baseball Prospectus listed eight international signees in their top 20 of the organization’s prospects. However, only Baez is considered a “four star” prospect, with Welington Castillo and Jeimer Candelario only “three star” prospects. While BA puts three in their top ten, only five are mentioned in their fifteen category “Top Tools” section. Since 2005, BA has named international signees to their top ten players less than a quarter of the time. That bucks the trend of the league average, which is over thirty percent. Some may claim that perhaps the Cubs organization may not have had many international players deserving of a top ten ranking. This brings us to the subject of “missed” picks.

By including recent draft picks in their top ten, BA set themselves up as having a very deep crystal ball in order to see that far into the future. The catch is, by focusing on the draft picks, they often ignore players already in the system, some of which overtake more ballyhooed prospects. Start with 2005. BA listed outfielder and former first round draft pick Ryan Harvey and that year’s top pick, pitcher Grant Johnson. However, BA ignored future major leaguers Ronny Cedeno, Casey McGehee, Ryan Theriot, Randy Wells, and Carlos Marmol. This trend holds true through 2009 (to be fair, I didn’t include the last two lists, as those are too soon to tell). BA “misses” on over thirty percent of their projections, while they “missed” on the average eight players per year that would either end up in the majors, or on future top ten lists.

Time has a funny way of distorting how fans view this information. While the lists initially belong to the publications that put them out, the ownership seems to transfer to organization they are about. It’s as if the team itself made the lists, and not some outsider’s opinion. So when prospects don’t seem to do well, it is considered the organization’s “fault” rather than just poor predicting.

So how do you know who is right? First of all, you need to take the lists as information, but with a grain of salt. Know that from about a quarter to about half the time they are wrong, and that better players than they have listed are lurking in the system. To find out who those players are, you have to do your own thinking. The CCO will provide you with the information through our coverage of the entire minor league system, including rookie and international leagues. An informed opinion is usually the best opinion.

Follow ChicagoCubsOnline on Twitter: @TheCCO

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  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=767475592 Matt Gregory

    Thanks for the great information Neil.  I don’t comment very often on here, but I do read the posts everyday.  I am taking a backseat and “hoping” that Theo and company are working their plan to a greater team for our Cubs.  It’s hard to say what is right or wrong with the trades that are going on because we don’t get to see the “big picture” of the organization.  I do think that Theo has a plan that we do not get to see…let’s hope so at least.  I know I am tired of the same old crap that has been put out there year after year, so I will give him a pass for a couple years to see if he can right this ship! 

    • Calicub

      This article was posted by Tom U. He also does the Down on the Farm Reports and most if not all the minor league stuff..

      Great to see you post though. Great work as always Tom.

      I feel like its to early to judge theo and co. But I ike others question destroying the middle infield depth…however I’m afraid we’ll have to see what happens over the next year or two to truly judge the new regime.

    • http://chicagocubsonline.com/ Neil

      Matt, thank you but I cannot take credit. Tom wrote this one.

  • Tony_Hall

    I know which prospect report to go by and hopefully are faithful on here do to, it’s the CCO’s prospect list.  It has credibility by by not putting players who haven’t played in the minors yet, on the list (Hayden Simpson is one example, of someone on all the publications lists, but not the CCO’s).

    Great job as always Tom.

    • Javbed

      I concur. Thanks.

  • Tony_Hall

    Here is an ESPN Insider Article that compares Yu Darvish to some big name, young starting pitchers.

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7372571/mlb-comparing-yu-darvish-justin-verlander-zack-greinke-other-elite-right-handers 

    The comparisons by 10 scouts and big league executives choosing 1 player or the other

    Darvish 10 Nolasco 0
    Darvish 7 I. Kennedy 3
    Darvish 7 Garza 3

    Verlander 10 Darvish 0
    Grienke 5 Darvish 5

    Here is the recap on Garza

    Scouting report: Durable with plus stuff, and more strikeouts than hits allowed in 2011.

    Garza was often the first point of heavy thinking and pauses for those polled. “I have to go Garza here,” said one NL executive. “He’s young, he’s American League East-proven [from his time with the Tampa Bay Rays] and he’s got great stuff.” In addition, Garza’s placement on the spectrum created some questions, as two among those polled took Darvish over Garza, yet preferred Kennedy over both. “I think you’re going in the wrong direction,” said an AL assistant general manager.

  • Tony_Hall

    My question for everyone.

    The last 2 years, we have “gone for it” again and we have seen extremely poor fundamentals, lazy, uncaring teams, be out of it by the  end of May.

    Would you rather see those teams again or a team that is being rebuilt, that may or may not win around 70 games (either way it’s out of the playoffs and could win at least 63 games, as to not lose 100), but plays the game better and  has good fundamentals, hustle, care and respect for the game?

    I know we don’t know that a Dale Sveum managed team will have fundamentals, hustle, care and respect for the game, but I am confident they will be closer to that, than what we have seen the last 2 years.

    I am also not looking for everyone to recite their, very known opinions, on what they would have done, just pick one

    LAST YEARS

    or 

    REBUILD

    I’ll take the REBUILD over the awful baseball we have been seeing.

    • ryan

      Ill take rebuild for sure. The foundation must be built in order to have sustained success

    • Ripsnorter1

      Do it like the Cardinals. They compete every year, and are more successful than the Yankees. 

      • Tony_Hall

        That’s non-committal.  

        The Cardinals also turn over the majority of their roster on a more consistent basis. Leading us to say, almost every year, who are those guys they added…sound familiar.

        Plus their last 11 years can be contributed to getting lucky, with a player every team passed on 12 times, turning into the best player in baseball the last 11 years.  Where would they have been without that foundation for their team?  Not celebrating World Series victories in years they barely made the playoffs…they wouldn’t have made the playoffs without Pujols.

        • Ripsnorter1

          Thanks for the reply, Tony. Always enjoy your posts even though we are on opposite sides of the fence these days. : )

          Let me kindly say that your poll question is not exact enough and not logical enough. Here’s what I mean:You ask us if we want a team that “goes for it” like the last two years (and consequently is lazy, poor fundamentals, etc), or rebuild a team that hustles, has good fundamentals, etc. 

          Now, Byrd was a FA, and he hustles. He has good fundamentals in the field. The big knock we have on him is that he swings at the first pitch with men on base, and usually hits a ground ball back to the pitcher or SS. My point: FA does not preclude good fundamentals or hustle. Besides, Theo is signing FAs. Look at Corpus and DeJesus. So he’s “rebuilding” with FAs, too. So there’s my critique of your logic. Your question implies that acquiring FAs always results in poor fundys, lack of hustle, out of it by May.  And of course that is not a sound premise.

          As for the inexactness of your question, rebuilding may imply the acquistion of FAs, and a “team like last year’s” may imply the acquistion of FAs. In other words, you might have more exactly defined “rebuild” and “Last Year’s.”I have good feelings for you and the CCO. I just don’t have good feelings about Theo’s currently methodology.My view: Do it like the Cards. Add bats. Add more bats. Grab a starter if you need one. But by all means assemble a team that can compete.All this on a mid-level market team. 

          • Tony_Hall

            My question was based on the comparison of reality.

            Last year happened.

            This coming year is happening.

            Which one would you prefer to watch?

            I’ll take this year…last year had no chance and no future.  

            This year we have a future and I expect them to much more fun to watch.  Last year(s) have been un-watchable.

          • cubtex

            This idea of a team full of players playing 1 way is a nice fairy tale! Do you honestly think in the day of free agency,international players and the like…..there can be 1 way that everyone plays? Does David Ortiz hustle evertime he hits a popup? Do all the Red Sox slide a certain way into 2nd base on a steal? Does every infielder in the Red Sox system catch a pop up the exact same way??? Please don’t insult peoples intelligence and honestly think that this would suddenly change and everyone will see this “boy wonder” team at Wrigley.

          • Tony_Hall

            Of course a team full of players won’t all play the same.

            But watching the Cubs the last couple of years, you saw a team that was fundamentally flawed. And with that their were still players who did things right.

            If we start watching a team that look fundamentally sound, there will still be players who things, wrong.

            Not sure how any of this should insult anyone’s intelligence.

          • paulcatanese

            You and Tubtex are saying the same thing, only different.You are both right.

          • Dorasaga

            I think there’s something about this Wrigley Field that Theo “The Builder” does not quite “get it.”

            As soon as his team “gets it,” I will like to see them get this done: add bats, hit to the World Series.

            Until then, Stay Classy.

      • Tony_Hall

        More successful than the Yankees?  Based on what?

        World Series victories, division titles, W-L record last 10 years…I don’t get that one and I usually get your points…don’t always agree :) but I get your points.

        • Ripsnorter1

          Last ten years:

          Cards= 3 WS appearances, 2 victories
          Red Sox=2 WS appearnances, 2 victories
          Yanks= 2 WS appearnaces, 1 victory
          Giants=2 WS appearances, 1 victory
          Phillies=2 WS appearances, 1 victory
          Texas=2 WS appearances, 0 victories

          That’s what I mean.

          • Tony_Hall

            C’mon Man

            Last 16 years

            Yankees 7 WS aps – 5 Victories
            Cardinals still 3 WS aps – 2 wins

            You have to go back to 1987 to find the Cardinals next to World Series.

            They have both been successful, but sorry, the Yankees have the better record, no matter how you look at the numbers.

            They do have one thing in common:

            I don’t like either team!

          • Dorasaga

            Like I said, it’s an Illinois thing.

            Merry Christmas.

      • victor

        The cardinals are majority ofl free agents, they spend money, ever since ricketts bought the cubs they just keep spending less every year. Chris carpenter, kyle lohse, jake westbrook, edwin jackson, all free agent signings. matt holiday, carlos beltran. lance berkman, rafael furcal. they develop a few players but all consistant playoff teams spend money on free agents. The cubs will never win by trying to do it through the minors only no team does  

        • Tony_Hall

          They drafted the best player of the last decade in Round 13…that is the reason for their 2 World Series wins.

      • Coolpdxcubsfan

        It certainly didn’t hurt to have Albert all those years in order to compete. It only takes a few other successful guys to be a competitor. Then a few more REALLY successful players and a lot of luck to win it all.
        But I agree Rip, there is no reason why a Major Market team like us shouldn’t be able to compete EVERY year, even while rebuilding. It just doesn’t take that much to compete in our weak division.

      • cubtex

        Yep. You can do it simultaneously. Don’t let anyone let you believe otherwise. With a big payroll team…you can do both.

        • Tony_Hall

          You can do both, but you may be stuck in the middle ground forever, not good enough to win, but too good to break-up.  

          • Bredstik

            Or unable to break up due to overpriced contracts and no trade clauses, which is where we’ve been the last few years.

    • cubs1967

      i’ll take a winning team while trying to re-build.  didn’t know there was a law that says one or the other. in fact, since we are not the a’s their isn/t.  this is just easier to trade everyone; even the guys below 30.  it actually makes NO sense to trade a 29 yr old LH RP who could pitch and haunt the cubs till age 40.  same will go for garza if that happens.

      cubs fans should not put up with this.  DO NOT attend games while we watch the iowa cubs plus castro.

      largest market in the division.  3rd largest in baseball.  payroll this year will maybe reach 100M. next year i bet 80M. (this saves 90M from 2011 payroll of 135M; let’s see 18M to release Z, 54M to release Sori and 20M to buy mickey dee’s—-there ya go 90M).

      i expect a winner.  team theo and ricketts are quitting on the fans for 3 yrs. if the yankees or red sox don’t do it; why should we; after 103 yrs of failure; it’s time to expect more than sunshine, old sytle, and singing take me out to the ballgame during the 7th inning.

      theo is suppose to be a genius; so forget the crap of it not working with JH; theo is to be smarter. so why can’t he make th team competitive??  aaron had a great scenairo of signings to do so……fielder at 28, e jackson at 28, plus other 2 yr deals.

      all of the moves are worse than JH moves to date.  this team is much worse than quade’s team………100 losses for sure.

      december 2011; already looking forward to december 2014; they are quitting on us for 3 yrs while romper room “acts” like a MLB club……….FYI–it’s cheaper to go to Iowa or go to kane county and watch perioa (if they are still in business after 4 yrs of 2.3m) losses.

      the chicago bucs magic number for 2012: 104; yrs wi/o a WS and number of losses.  book it dano!!

      • Tony_Hall

        Didn’t even read it all, I’ve heard it before, that is why I said, I didn’t need everyone to recite their opinions, over again.  

        Just pick one!  Because that is our choice to watch or not to watch, because we have no say in it and if you watched last year, you will like this year better.

        And since there is no law against attending games, I am going to go to games as well.  Buy lots of concessions as too.

        • cubs1967

          there aren’t just 2 choices!!  your question is flawed and short sighted.

          but you are drunk on team theo MIT blue kool-aid.

          enjoy your $50 seats to watch a 100 loss team……….just what ricketts wants us “dumb” bleacher bums fans to do.

          go Bulls!

          • Tony_Hall

            Unfortunately, there is only 1 choice, following the Chicago Cubs, with what they are doing.

            No posts on here are going to change the direction of this team so you have only one choice.

            Follow this team or don’t follow this team.

            I and many others have offered to take you up on the 100 loss bet, and you never respond.  Maybe, it ‘s because you know that it’s not going to happen.

            Go Bulls as well!  

        • Coolpdxcubsfan

          Blah, Blah, Blah.
          It seems to be ok for YOU to recite YOUR opinions over and over and over again. I guess it is just other folks that aren’t entitled to do it.
          There aren’t just 2 choices, there are a million variations and degrees of this question.
          Go cubs1967, RIGHT ON!

          • Tony_Hall

            It is ok for anyone to recite their opinions over and over again.

            I was asking for a quick reply to a question, without everyone giving a long explanation for their response.

            Feel free to give your opinion.

            And there is only 1 choice, since we have no say in it.

      • Coolpdxcubsfan

        Excellent, you said it well, thanks.

        • Coolpdxcubsfan

          ooops I was thanking Cubs 1967. I don’t always agree with you, but you are spot on this one.

    • GaryLeeT

       Rather than having ” gone for it” the last 2 years I would phrase more like “handcuffed to it”.
      Too late to go with Last Year’s team, so by default it will be the rebuild. But it needs to start NOW with younger, high priced, free agents (Fielder & E. Jackson or Saunders this year and Matt Cain next) , trades, and the draft. I had no problem with the way Hendry did things. It was who he did them with that was his undoing. He was a horrible judge of a player’s self discipline, and baseball IQ.

    • Bredstik

      No question I’m all for the rebuild.  I like the idea of trading guys when their value is high for a change, especially since there aren’t really any players on the current team that I feel much of a tie to at this point.

    • barstoolRodeo

      Rebuild. No doubt.

  • Anthony

    Tom, once again, nice work

    Maybe what I write answers Why I like the new CBA.

    Is every roster spot on a MLB team filled with 1st rounders?NO

    The experts, scouts, listmakers, etc. are always more wrong than right when it comes to the draft in the very early rounds. The problem is that money(investment) skews the minor league system as Clubs are “forced” to hang with a high bonus prospect each year hoping their mistake pick gets corrected, but usually at the expense of solid players getting released who out-perform their draft slot year after year.

    Some organizations are more cut throat than others. They will keep trying to force a square object into a circular hole. The birth of a AAAA player.

    When you look at minor league production from a player, regardless of draft status, you look for gradual improvement of their weaknesses and progress toward fundamental maturity. A 30th round hitter can turn on a 95 mph fastball as well as a 1st rounder can, A 25th rounder may have a stronger arm than a 1st rounder, but when push comes to shove, that initially cheaper talent gets pushed aside in favor of the draft bonus(investment) player because “nobody wants to admit when they are wrong”, hence, its skewwed.

    I found it refreshing that the AL champion Rangers sported three major offensive contributors, all original 17th round selections.

    What we should hope for with Theo and Company after all these off-season transactions are complete is the “set of fresh eyes” method when the players arrive in Mesa. Every player who has been in the system at least one full season needs re-evaluation. Players who have stalled need closer looks as to why.

    Some of the Cubs best producers in the minors have never appeared on any list.

    Enter the draft class of 2011. Very talented, very deep, a good mix of kids and college players, some real nice athletic types.

    My involvement is college baseball the past 10 years has allowed me to see many players scattered in MLB and most of the minors at one point or another, even as high schoolers.

    The initial assignments out of ST will be an interesting follow as well as the minor league season. As the big club goes through this transition and takes their lumps, the Farm hopefully will be realigned, and a few stars begin to shine.

  • Cloycub13

    Hello all and happy Holidays!
    I know I have not posted in quite some time, but I come to this site multiple times a day. I have seen an amazing swing in comments, some are patient, some are ready to fire the front office again, some are awed, some are stocking up on koolaid, some are bashing every single move.

    Look I have absolutely no clue as to what the new brain trust is thinking. They could be on the verge of something brilliant. Think about this ramble for a minute… when the Cubs actually do win a world series there will eventually be a movie made about it. These are the scenes right after the opening credits. We will sit there like the groundskeepers in “Major League” saying things like “who are these F’ing guys” and “They still stink”. Pay Hughes will be in the booth asking “What innin… ahhh who cares nooone is watching anyway”. But a brief fictional history lesson says that they were guys that were hungry, that wanted to prove either that they belonged or that they still had it in em. These guys, ALL of them are professional ball players, they are getting paid really well to play a kids game, do you think they are all going to show up in Mesa and say screw it we suck?! Do you think Theo and Co are up in their box saying wooohoooo we suck and we are sticking it to those poor saps of fans?! REALLY?

    I want Prince as much as anyone. I think we have the funds to do it, I think he is a centerpiece, I think we can build around him, I would love to stick it to all of the Brewer fans around me, He has missed one ONE game! But if it does not happen OK.

    I am excited to see a new brand of baseball because the last few years have been unwatchable. Mostly, I am waiting. Rome was not built in a day and the titanic does not turn on a dime. Wait to see what we have come ST. If we suck we suck, but if they play hard and fundamentally sound it will be fun. These guys should be hungry, should be ready to play hard. Personally I feel that is a better approach than over paid and lazy.

    Have a great Christmas all! Keep up the amazing work Neil Tom and the rest.

    See ya next year!

  • PleaseStopLosing

    1 and only Rule to this message board– DO NOT QUESTION THEO at all on any deal! He is right, were rebuilding with retreads. Have fun 100 loses.

    • Tony_Hall

      Have you been reading the CCO…that is all that happens on here is people, with just a small bit of information, questioning every move that is made by Theo.  

      Will every move work…of course not.

      Will players that are gone, play baseball still and have success…of course.

      I am looking forward to the old, lazy, players who don’t respect the game be gone (not all players that will be gone fit this description), and watching a team full of players, play the game better, with respect, and actually building a team, instead of using duct tape to hold on the band-aides.

      • J Daniel

        Tony,
        I am with you on this.  I could NOT watch much the last 2 seasons!  Hard to stomach.  Am behind Theo 100% until proven otherwise.  The overall track record is good.

        The team has had major flaws, and the system has not been providing much major league ready guys that are going to be here if/when the team wins.

      • PleaseStopLosing

        If you can name one thing Theo has done to improve the team so far then I’ll stop being critical… till then– ease up on the Kool Aide man.

        There is no reason we have to loose 100 games to rebuild and rebuilding means trading for minor leaguers with a some ability. Not getting DeJesus and Reed Johnson. How do those guys help us in 3 years when the rebuild is supposed to be complete? And this pitcher we just signed to a 1 year deal?!?! Say he has a great year… then he will just sign somewhere else and that wont help us at all either.

        Theo doesn’t walk on water… If this was Jim– you would be critical. Since it’s Theo your just over excited.

        • PleaseStopLosing

          This all reminds me of when we first hired Rudy who also walked on water… look back at the message boards when we got him. Since his hire we have had one of the most pathetic offenses in baseball. Poor fundamentals at the plate included. I dont think it’s all Rudy’s fault… I think it’s the players on the field that make the difference– and ours suck.

        • Tony_Hall

          Why does everyone say we will lose 100 games?  The players we end up with (the roster is far from complete) will be playing a better style of baseball than what we have been seeing. 

          Theo has made many good moves, like bringing in DeJesus and Reed Johnson, on short term deals, so as not to create a roadblock for any young player.  

          Every move can be looked at from a negative point of view or a positive point of view.  
          I am choosing to give Theo and Co. time to make all of their off-season moves before looking at with a critical eye.

          JH earned my and others critical eye with the results on the field, that came from his moves.

          Theo hasn’t had one pitch thrown under his regime.  At least wait until the first ball is thrown to say how bad it was thrown.

      • Anthony

        Tony, the best medicine for folks is to attend minor league games to visually see what you mean, and it would also reveal that they are all good ballplayers, a fine line between a MLB player and minor league player, they call it “be consistently good/reliable.”

        That is what prospects aim for.

  • Jay From Sandwich

    You can add the following players to the Cubs system (Maybe) this is from MLB Trade Rumors:
    FRIDAY: The Cubs will received Wood, Dave Sappelt, and Ronald Torreyes from the Reds for Marshall, reports ESPN’s Keith Law (on Twitter). The trade will be announced later today.
    Sappelt, a 24-year-old outfielder, hit .243/.289/.318 in 118 plate appearances for Cincinnati last year, his big league debut. He produced a .313/.377/.458 batting line in 336 plate appearances for their Triple-A affiliate in 2011. Torreyes, a 19-year-old infielder, hit .356/.398/.457 in 306 plate appearances at the Low Class-A level this past season. Baseball America ranked Sappelt and Torreyes as the Reds’ 20th and 22nd best prospects in last year’s Prospect Handbook, respectively.

  • cubs1967

    it’s being reported the cubs got the 20th and 22nd suspect/prospect from the reds, a crappy minor league system.

    dave sappelt;  he of the 118 at-bats and .243 MLB avg.  sounds like dejesus.
    the other 19 yr old (wow—major reach he’ll ever do anything)–see earl cunninghan, karl pagel, mark pawlek,etc.  he did hit .356 in low A. (ronald torreyes)

    so really we got nothing.  as i said, i would bet anyone we did not get a top 10 suspect; and we are not even close.

    neither t wood or sappelt will be on this team in 2015; when the rebuild need to be done.  who knows on torreyes.

    but marshall will be 32 and still kicking the cubs ass!!

    geez………..if this was a JH trade; this site would burn his x-mas gifts!!

    so tony……….give me that MIT blue cubby kool-aid and spin this sh^*&(*((**((*(*!!

    i expected it to be bad………….this  exceeds my expectations of junk!

     

    • Binyow

      just a word on that cubs-reds trade.The kid Torreyes drew comparisons to a Kid who Theo has something to do with. Dustin Pedrioa. Read this:http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=591720. And this;  http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/dayton-dragons/energetic-torreyes-stands-tall-despite-his-slight-build-1223863.html

      • Anthony

        saw Torreyes play when on business in Dayton, and he profiles as a classic 2B physically, and the contact amount is what you want, and in a pitchers league(MWL), pretty impressive results.

        Tom………………..I had Alcantara pegged for Daytona at 2B, and Torreyes doesn’t need a repeat in low A, or does he? And, this may put DeVoss back as a CF instead of 2B, your thoughts

        • cubtex

          The dude is 5’9 140lbs. He needs to get in the weight room

          • Anthony

            and?

          • Aaron

            …And grow taller….lol….j/k

          • paulcatanese

             I guess one could look at it as just a “little” trade. :)

    • PleaseStopLosing

      Well said man. Let’s hear about how great of trade this was!!

    • cubtex

      Wow! I was hoping it was going to be more of a return.

    • Aaron

      I have to agree…mostly anyway.

      Sappelt is a garbage prospect….low OBP guy and poor baserunning in which he has a CS rate almost equal to his SB.

      As for Torryes…he could save this trade for the Cubs…but the fact Theo and Hoyer couldn’t even get Hamilton or H. Rodriguez as part of this deal….it’s a huge loss…especially in an interdivision trade.

      Fact is…Travis Wood is more like Randy Wells than anyone else…he’s a one year wonder and it should’ve come as no surprise if everyone looked at his minor league stats

      again…just look what the Padres received for Mike Adams…Erlin and Wieland…2 above average starters…

      And look what the O’s got for Uehara…Hunter…a young starter with MLB success and Chris Davis…likewise but with contact struggles.

      That’d be the equivalent of Drew Stubbs and Travis Wood

    • Scott

      Ok, Cubs1967, since you are infinitely more intelligent than Theo & Co., what would you have (realistically) traded Marshal for?

      You can find fault in every move that is being made, but offer nothing contructive either.

      Sappelt and Torreyes could be very useful.  Sappelt could make the team this year as the 4th OF (depending on what other moves will be made) and has a good track record in the minors (2010 Reds Minor League Player of the Year) while Torreyes looks to have tremendous upside, playing at three levels at age 17 and hitting .356 in A ball at 18 (he fell short of PA to win the batting title, but the league leader hit .326 and was 4 years older than Torreyes).

      Just out of curiosity, what would you think about a trade where the Cubs would give up a 24-year old outfielder that hit .251/.300/.340 in 231 PA for a 27-year old starter that went 18-8 with a 2.99 ERA/1.168 WHIP.  Would that be a good deal and one that you would endorse?

      • daverj

        Great post Scott.  Love the reference in your last paragraph to that horrible trade … 

  • http://chicagocubsonline.com/ Neil

    According to Keith Law, Cubs to receive Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt, and Ronald Torreyes for Sean Marshall. Deal to be announced later today.

    Will post when deal is official.

  • http://chicagocubsonline.com/ Neil

    From John Fay, Reds media: Sappelt was 20th, Torreyes 22nd on #Reds’ Baseball America prospect list. Both will be higher this year.

    • Schwimmer

      Neil:  What do you think about the trade…if the 2 players turn out to be Sappelt and Torreyes?

      They were not on your list of the “prospects” you said would make the trade a good one for the CUBS.

      Love to know what you think of this trade?

  • Former CCO reader

    please any baseball fan with half brain leave this site not due to the aritlces (they are decent)… but the readers and people who comment are just terrible and have no baseball knowledge. This was a great trade of a 29 year old LF RP that was only under team control for 1 more season.  A 70 win team such as the cubs most certainly do no need a dominate LF setup guy so managment capaitlized on the sitiutation.   I’m not sure how people thought they could get more. This was an amazing haul. Great Move by Theo and the gang, and I can’t wait for the next move.  Do any of you realize if they could get a Top 50 prospect they would have?? just a thought  (I’ll be on Bleachernation talking with at least a couple of fans withs knowledge!)

    • Calicub

      First of all marshall is a LHP not a LF but with your post its obvious you have no brains or respect. This is a fan site where fans post their opinions and others discuss. If its too much of a bother that ithers have differing opinions then shut your overly large ego down and move on. This site doent want people who disrespect and belittle the very thing that makes this site great. And truly, it is great.

      So enjoy your low quality sport reporting (if you can even call it reporting) and I hope your IP adress gets banned from the site. Meanwhile the rest of us will continue to enjoy all the CCO has to offer.

      Get bent and get lost.

    • daverj

      Neil (and others) put a lot of thankless time into this site.  It’s a great website and one of my favorite sites to visit.  If you don’t like it, then don’t come here.

      While I disagree with many of the posters on here, I enjoy the back and forth banter.  And I think most of the other posters do as well.

    • Nathan

      Those are some harsh comments coming from someone who doesnt know any of us personally….and who is to say you have any sports knowledge…glad to see you have nothing better to do with your pathetic life than trash others for absolutely no reason

    • Schwimmer

      It sounds like this will have been a good trade for the CUBS if the prospects involved — are correct.

      And, I agree that there have been some very hysterical reactions by a number of people on this blog about this TRADE and THEO’s overall judgment to date.  

      These negative and cynical comments do raise questions about how knowledgeable some of these critics are.  And, they also raises questions on “basic civility” toward each other as well as the CUBS management.

      There is room for lots of “humility” when discussing the pros and cons of any trade.  

      We as fans DO NOT know all the factors and evaluation — that went into these decisions.  After all, you’ve got THEO and Company, including SCOUTS discussing these trades.
      I have a lot more confidence in them than I do guys “sitting in the bleachers,” 2nd guessing trades as if they were on THEO’s staff.

      Let’s have some patience and faith…and a little humility.

    • paulcatanese

      I dont like you.:)

  • daverj

    Sappelt and Torreyes are decent.  It’s less than I would have wanted, but more than I feared it could have been.  I’m in the middle on this deal … not happy about it, but not upset either.

    The general consensus out there (except for many Cub fans) seems to be that the Cubs got the better of this deal.

    I can see the arguments on both sides.  We could have potentially received more for Marshall if we waited until the trade deadline to deal him.  On the other hand, we picked up a guy who could be a cost controlled solid #4 starter for the Cubs when they are ready to contend in 2014 and 2015.  That way the Cubs won’t have to go into free agency for a 4th starter type and blow $8 million a year on a multi year deal.  Plus, Sappelt and Torreyes have some value. 

  • Nathan

    It looks like the prospects in the trade for Marshall are Ronald torryes and Dave sabbelt (who made is major league debut earlier this year)

  • http://chicagocubsonline.com/ Neil

    Trade is official:#Cubs acquire LHP Travis Wood, OF Dave Sappelt & INF Ronald Torreyes from #Reds for LHP Sean Marshall.

  • PeteM

    I put some faith in baseball scouting for the farm systems, but not all they are not much different then college football scouting reports.  Player development is huge and needs to be considered.  I hope they are putting the people in place to do so.  The best college recruits in the land have limited potential in football unless coached up.

    • paulcatanese

      I agree with what you are saying,stop watches,size, level of competion, all go into signing a player or given a scholarship are all important.
      But what is most important is the coachability of the athlete himself. He can have all the talent in the world but if he does not accept what is being taught to him and react to it, then its a waste.
      Many an athlete (talented) are passed over by less talented ones that respond to coaching.
      If the athlete cannot be reached mentaly then the progression willl be short lived.

  • Dorasaga

    Tom, fans sometimes forget that it takes time for a person to progress. At least I sometimes forgot like my 90-years old grandma, who always asked me when will I graduate and find a job. LOL

    Baseball might not be a medical doctor, because the latter only needs about 9 years before she was let go to practice for herself. But even if he opens his own clinic, a lot are still trial-and-error. Doctors don’t always know the cause of your pain. They need to run aimless tests and to apply radioactive or other mechanics that harm the patient’s body before they got enough information to make a logical guess.

    That’s why patients need a second and even third-opinion before they make a major choice of going under the knife or not.

    I would trade for Nick Swisher any time over signing another R.Johnson or a D.Dejesus, if I want to play for some 90 wins next year.

    However, it doesn’t always work this way. BA doesn’t always see the progress of a professional player from rookie ball to AAA. He fails to master a slider last year. He picks up a cutter this year. There’s your next Rivera, but wait, he was rated number 23 on the BA list and was drafted 3rd round behind all these lousy pitchers of that year.

    They see what is now. I’m pretty sure nobody from the BA regarded Albert Pujols as the best baseball player of our current generation when things were happening to him in the minor league*.

    He batted.314/.378/.543 from A to advanced-A then AAA, but his performance dropped every level he advanced.

    Can you imagine that two decades from now, a Korean tourist will be walking down the Hall of Fame, and tell his kid: You see this Dominican guy? His name is Albert Pujols. Nobody cared about him when he was killing high school pitchers. He was drafted 402nd overall two years later. Ten years later, some fans still doubt him used illegal performance drugs and lied about his age.

    But you know what, we now have technologies to date a person’s age by exactly which hour he was born. Pujols sent his hair and other specimens to the lab. He was clean as Heaven. He proved he never lied, like his educated parents taught him.

    Nobody now know where those 401 players before him went. Albert Pujols will live on like Lord Nelson and Hannibal. The greatest baseball player of his time.