Swept by the ‘Stros – Cubs 1 Astros 3

Snyder is 29 and he has always had a high strikeout rate in the minors. You know my thoughts on Colvin….too long of a swing and doesn’t shorten it with 2 strikes. Doesn’t use the whole field….he tries to pull everything. Barney and Castro make good contact but need to walk more. If the pitchers start seeing that Barney and Castro will lay off the slider low and away…they will both get more hittable fastballs.

I agree with everything you said. In the minors, a lot of pitchers struggle with their secondary stuff, so they really heavily on their fastball. When they get to MLB, they find pitchers can throw their secondary stuff at any time during the AB, no matter what the count. Pitch recognition then becomes a huge issue, as they can no longer get by with guessing correctly most of the time like they were in the minors. 

Usually, in AAA, the pitchers are mostly recently demoted rookies who couldn’t hack it in MLB, or they are veterans that can no longer spot their secondary pitches as well. Thus, you see a tremendous amount of offense at the AAA level, which is why guys like Snyder and LaHair have looked like the second coming of Babe Ruth. That’s not to say that they’re not good players, but AAA tends to add a “Beer Goggles” factor when looking at certain players.

That’s why I believe the true talent both ways in hitting and pitching lies in AA. However, there is a problem with AA as well when it comes to pitching. That’s usually where you find your best pitching talent, but often times, the majority of pitchers at AA are still trying to figure out their secondary pitches as well, so the hitters aren’t seeing a heavy diet of secondary pitches at any time during the AB in any count. So there’s really no perfect place to find talent, and say definitively that they will have success at the MLB level. There are pros and cons at any level. 

Guys like Hoffpauir, Fox, Pie, Snyder, LaHair, etc. have absolutely obliterated AAA pitching, had a reasonable amount of success at the MLB level (Hoff, Fox, Pie, and even LaHair), but flamed out for the most part. 

That’s why I try to look at the career stats of these prospects to see if they can hack it at the MLB level, making sure they’re not a one year wonder at AAA. It’s why I was not enamored with Soto when he initially came up, and everyone else was. It sure shocked the hell out of me when he won the ROY, and I ate some crow for that one, but now look at him…it’s about where I thought he’d be. 

And I already mentioned this in another post, but my preference for rookies when the MLB team is doing poorly does NOT mean that I think Snyder, or LaHair, or Montanez will do any better than the veterans, but my point is they can do no worse. How do you do any worse than last place? Am I right? So why not play them everyday, and see what you’ve got?

Now….onto the pitching…..

When the Cubs had 20-somethings in Wood, Prior, and Zambrano when they were healthy, Rothschild sure looked smart, didn’t he?

When the Yankees have an All-Star (and former All-Star) rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Colon, and Garcia, plus, a back-end of the pen in Rivera, and the young, flame-throwing Chamberlain….there’s not much he has to do, right?

However, when he’s given a project to work with, he almost always failed with them. Hell, look at the rookie Nova in the rotation and Soriano in the pen, who was a solid closer last year. I guess you could say that Colon was a “project”, but he injected stem cells in his shoulder, and can now throw in the mid 90′s, versus the high 80′s, low 90′s, which nearly caused him to call it a career. So his success has more to do with a medical marvel than Rothschild’s help. 

Anyway, back to the Cubs….

Coleman was compared to Maddux. Do you know how many players have been compared to him? I can remember at least 5 in recent history with the Cubs, and Coleman is one of them. A righty “prospect” being compared to Maddux is NOT a compliment, at least when you’re talking about Cubs prospects. Maddux is actually code for “soft-tossing righty without much else going for him”. 

Then, the Cubs have journeyman pitchers that were recently released by other teams (though Lopez was signed by the Braves, then traded to the Cubs…but he was released prior to the Braves) for poor performances. 

Then, Riggins had to deal with Russell, who was best suited as a LOOGY, being thrust into the rotation. The point is, there’s not much at all he could do with those circumstances.

And with Zambrano, Dempster, and Garza all coming around after rough starts to the year, you could say that he’s done a fine job. And prior to his rough outing a few days ago, you could see that even Marmol and Marshall were doing better than they were a year ago with each of them being under a 2 ERA (Marmol is now over 3 after the 6 runs given up). And when you factor in the strong starts to the year prior to going on the DL by Cashner and Wells, you’d see that the entire rotation would be in good shape.

And I believe you can actually see Riggins’ lack of a presence in the minors having a big impact this year, as a lot of the pitchers that were doing well last year in the system have fallen on hard times.

The Cubs went into this year having a very good outlook with their pitching prospects with Archer, McNutt, Jackson, and Carpenter at the top of the list. But Archer was traded, Jackson got injured, and Carpenter was moved to the pen, and essentially replaced on the list by Whitenack.

Now, Whitenack is injured with an elbow issue, and while Jackson had a solid start last night, his shoulder has bothered him all year, so the ONLY healthy pitcher they have left in that group is McNutt.

That’s a problem, isn’t it? What does Riggins have to work with? Not much, if you ask me. I guess the Cubs could make a reach to A ball with Kurcz, Lorick, and Kirk….but that would be pretty foolish, and they obviously need to go to AA first.

But, this post is too long, and I want to continue this conversation, so I’ll post below.