Predicting the Cubs in Two Thousand Eleven

The Chicago Cubs open the 2011 season, weather permitting, Friday afternoon at Wrigley against the Pittsburgh Pirates. And that can mean only one thing … it is time for the annual prediction contest on the CCO. So dust off your copy of Gray’s Sports Almanac, Vol. 2 and let’s have a little fun the day before Mike Quade’s first Opening Day as the Cubs’ skipper.

Expectations for the 2011 Chicago Cubs are not very high. Most are predicting Q’s squad to finish behind the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds with around a .500 record … well out of the playoff picture. A couple of publications have mentioned the Cubs as a possible sleeper, while acknowledging several things will have to go right for the Cubs to contend for a NL Central Crown in 2011. But as Larry Bowa says, baseball is not played on paper. If it were, the Cubs would have reached their ultimate goal several times during Jim Hendry’s tenure.

But what does the Faithful think? While the Cubs spend Thursday working out at Wrigley and preparing for Opening Day, let’s make predictions for the upcoming season …

The Cubs are coming off another disappointing season and will begin the year with virtually the same roster that took the field last October in Houston. The Opening Day roster will feature nine players that were not with the team last year in Atlanta … as well as a new manager and basically a new coaching staff.

The Cubs are depending on Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin and Andrew Cashner to take the next step in their development and for aging veterans to put up the numbers they did in 2008.

Do the Cubs have what it takes to prove the critics wrong and compete in the NL Central?

So here’s the contest. Correctly predict the Cubs win-loss record for 2011. The winner will receive something via the mail that has been deemed cool by the CCO … not to mention the title of the “Coolest Commenter on the CCO for 2011.”

Predictions can be made up to the first pitch Friday afternoon but the time stamp on your comment must be before 1:20pm CDT on April 1, 2011.

Now here’s the twist and tie breakers:

There will be only one winner this season. If there is not a correct prediction made, there will not be a winner. No overs or unders this year, the winner must correctly predict the Cubs record … the only exception would be if the Cubs do not play 162 games, which has happened two of the past three seasons. If the Cubs play less than 162 games, then a +/- equation will be taken into account based on the amount of games actually played.

  • First tiebreaker – The amount of runs scored by the Chicago Cubs
  • Second tiebreaker – The amount of wins for Matt Garza
  • Third tiebreaker – The amount of home runs for Carlos Pena
  • Fourth tiebreaker – The amount of doubles for Starlin Castro

Please, only one prediction per reader.

Let’s have a healthy debate. State a case for your prediction … plus, even if you don’t make a prediction you can still place your vote in the CCO poll on the right side bar on the amount of wins for the Cubs in Two Thousand Eleven.

Have fun, after all isn’t that what baseball is supposed to be … FUN! The winner will be announced in November.

And remember, Stay Classy Cubs Fans!

Opening Day is ONE DAY AWAY!

Quote of the Day

"You can’t sit on a lead and kill the clock. You’ve got to give the other man his chance. That’s why baseball is the greatest game." - Earl Weaver
  • Bj Luster-Bartz

    A healthy Soriano, a rebound Ramirez, the addition of Pena and a good pitching staff will lead the Cubs to an 89-73 record. The cubs will score 786 runs, Garza will win 16 games, Pena will hit 38 home runs, and Castro will hit 27 doubles.

  • Jim_Tinley_Park

    74 – 88
    718 runs
    Garza 13 wins
    Pena 24 HR’s
    Castro 25 doubles

  • GaryLeeT

    698 Runs Scored
    Garza wins 12
    Pena hits 22 Home Runs
    Castro Hits 33 Doubles

    Ramirez 64 days on the DL
    Soriano hits under .220 with 21 garbage time home runs.
    Wells leads staff with 16 wins
    Marmol saves 28 with only 31 chances
    Team last in the Majors in fielding
    Team plays “Go Cubs Go” before the game, so the lyrics make sense when applied to the actual event for which the song was intended.
    Hill shows Hendry a set of photos that are even more compromising than the previous ones, of his “scouting” trip with Quade to the Dominican. Gets moved to full time catcher.

  • GKRAB1

    702 runs
    Garza 18 wins
    Pena 35 HR’s
    Castro 32 doubles

  • T_Leise

    726 runs
    Garza 12 wins
    Pena 31 home runs
    Castro 34 doubles

  • James_NM

    Cubs will go 85-77
    Runs scored 754
    Matt Garza wins 14
    Pena hits 26 HR’s
    Castro hits 38 doubles.

  • paulcatanese

    A lack of solid offense,attitude problems,an unproven manager at the Major lg level Garza with 10 wins,the Cubs will score 713 runs,Pena 20 HR,Castro 29 doubles,Barney 16 doubles,the combo of Castro/Barney 3rd in DPs,Central,Ramirez will be on DL and miss 18 games,Dempster wins 14,Zambrano wins16 and leads staff,Wells wins12 and the Cubs finish behind Cinncinati,Milwalkee,and the Cardinals. Johnson will not make thru June. And of course Hill will finish with the lowest batting average of any catcher with the same amount of games played. Not many bright spots from General the bat boy. As a Cub fan,I hope I finish last in my predictions and they make a fool out of me and win.

  • Cloycub13

    OK here goes. I have been thinking about this for a while now… bouncing between a bad record and a so-so record. For the first time in many years I have not at any point said “This is the year!”…my expectations are low, so I am taking a wait and see approach, and a child like joy in watching Cubs baseball in 2011 with no expectations and no dillusions of Grandeur.

    The time has come when we crawl out of our winter shadows, shivering, pale, tired and ready for that first beautiful day in the sun, when your face actually gets warm when you look up. The time has come to hear that wha-POP sound of a 95 MPH heater popping the extra thick padding of a catchers glove. The time has come to see a dominant back end of the pen make suckas look like fools flailing away at a low and a way slider…and then watching our own over priced left fielder do the same. The time has come to bemoan runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs and no advancement whatsoever. The time has come to see leads grow then dissapear (Thanks Grabow). The time has come to long for the days of Ryno, Gracie, Sut, Fergie, Ronnie, Ernie and the Hawk. The time has come to hear “Bottom of the 9th, 2 down, Cubs trail by one…the pitch” and then hear the CRACK and watch it fly, watch crazy fans jumping and cheering. The time has come to hear GO CUBS GO!!!!! And finally the time has come to remember old Number 10, to say that we hope you are watching from that big grandstand in the sky next to Haray, Jack and John! Folks the time has come, grab a frosty beverage (or 6 the way this season may play out), play with the rabbit ears on the old AM/FM radio and hear “Chicago Cubs baseball is on the AIR!!!!!!!!!!”

    The time has come for me to shut up and make some picks!
    2011 Record: 77-85
    Runs scored: 697
    Garza’s Wins: 13-7 4.65ERA
    Pena taters: 28
    Castro doubles: 34

    Go Cubs Go, I may not believe, I may not buy it, and I may question the hell out of the fact that a 130mil team has soooo many questions, But I have always been, I am, and will always be a Cubs fan, and I will always root for this team… I just hope there is something to root for!!!

    • John_CC

      Is this the bad or the so-so?

      • Cloycub13

        I am going with the So-So on that prediction… I was leaning towards a total melt down and a near 100 loss season, but my koolaid glass filled a little and figured somewhere near .500 would be a win for 2011.

  • Cbriggscfy

    765 runs
    14 Garza wins
    29 Pena HR
    33 Castro doubles

  • Matt

    708 runs
    Garza 14 wins
    Pena 27hr
    Castro 28

  • Davestobbe

    Cubs record 86-76
    Garza wins 16
    Pena likes Wrigley 32 HRS
    Castro 29 Doubles
    With a little luck and some friendly bounces a Wild Card Birth?

  • Davestobbe

    Runs Scored 743
    Garza wins 16
    Pena likes Wrigley 32HRS
    Castro has 29 Doubles
    A little luck, some friendly bounces, a Wild Card Birth?

  • Bienkow1

    Cubs record: 81-81
    Runs scored: 720
    Garza wins: 15
    Pena HR: 32
    Castro doubles: 32

  • Brp921

    731 runs
    Garza 17 wins
    Pena 31 homeruns
    Castro 34 doubles

  • Cliffhaton

    757 runs
    garza wins 15, pena hits 26,castro has 32 doubles

  • Mitchener

    750 runs
    14 wins
    35 hrs’s
    35 doubles

  • Theboardrider

    769 runs
    Garza wins 14
    Pena hits 31 HR
    Castro hits 39 Dubs…

  • Lrod

    88-74 good 1st step forward for attracting Albert.
    Runs scored 699
    Garza 17 wins
    Pena – 29 Hrs .289 Avg 112 RBI
    Castro 29 doubles
    miss the playoffs by 1 game

  • Barry

    I hate to curse our Cubbies but I feel as though “Q” has a younger and more athletic team “overall” and that the addition of Pena, the infusion of youth, Soriano’s apparently healthy legs, our set up/closer combo w/mentorship from the “Bulldog” makes for a very exciting season in my estimation. More than in years past however our SP is not elite by any means but I love the fact that we are going to amass alot of SOs. So here go my predictions:

    714 runs
    Garza 16 wins
    Carlos Pena 33 HRs
    Sterling Castro 23 doubles

    “Go CUBS GO!!”

  • fryegye

    A step back toward average:

    762 runs scored
    14 wins for Garza
    34 home runs for Pena
    33 doubles for Castro

    The reason that a few writers have picked the Cubs as a sleeper is more because the NL Central is continuing to live down to its reputation as a weak division. I pick us as a third place team (or possibly second) with more changes by mid-season. One or more of the Brewers, Cardinals, or Reds will suffer a meltdown this season.

    Solid seasons from Demp, Z, Garza, Marmol, Marshall, Woody
    Hopeful on Wells, Cashner
    Still nervous about the rest of the bullpen – very nervous

    Average seasons from Geo, ARAM, Castro, Pena, Byrd
    Hopeful on Barney
    Decline in Soriano, Fukudome, Colvin, Hill (I know, how?)
    Nervous about pinch hitting off the bench, no consistency
    Still nervous about timely hitting with RISP

    PLEASE, please be average…. pretty please?

    So, I am a Cubs fan for life. That means the glass is half full this year…

    Go, Cubs, Go!

  • Chriswicker16


  • Aaron

    685 runs
    Garza 10 wins
    Pena 25 hr’s
    Castro 35 doubles

  • Cubs2101

    758 runs scored
    16 wins for garza
    38 hr for pena
    32 doubles for castro

  • Tom U

    Normally, not my cup of tea. I get too bound in the how’s in order to make numeral predictions, but I’ll give it a go:

    Record: 78-84 The Cubs will average about 4.25 runs per game, and their ERA will be close to that. The amount of unearned runs tips the balance.

    Runs: 688 4.25 per game

    Matt Garza wins: 12 Garza only won 15 games last season with better run support and better defense.

    Carlos Pena HR’s: 22 The 2010 Cubs scored 685 runs and hit 149 HR’s. Pena hits for the 2010 combined total of Derrek Lee and Xavier Nady in 2011.

    Starlin Castro Doubles: 37 Castro hit 31 doubles in 125 games last year. 37 in 150+ games isn’t out of the question.

    Just posting my predictions. As a regular contributer, I remove myself from the competition.

  • Tony

    Cubs Record – 74-88
    Runs scored – 691
    Matt Garza Wins – 11
    Carlos Pena HR’s – 33
    Starlin Castro 2B’s – 42

  • Boots

    714 Runs
    Garza 14 wins
    Pena 26 HRs
    Castro 33 doubles

  • ogac

    733 runs
    12 Wins for Garza
    31 HRs for Pena
    28 2bs for Castro
    Woody and Marmol are lights out in the 8th and 9th.
    Lineup is shuffled and shuffled and shuffled to find anything that works
    Big Z wins 16
    Demp wins 15
    A-Ram hits .230
    Castro makes 16 errors
    Jackson is called up in late June
    Byrd and Fukudome are traded by July 16th
    Colvin has 4 walk-off hits
    Soto hits 32 HRs

  • cubtex

    Record 83-79
    Runs 707
    Garza 14 Wins
    Pena 31 HR’s
    Castro 33 2B’s

    • Tony

      Just some friendly kidding…

      Only 83 wins…

      I thought Garza was a proven 15 game winner…

      Pena – Even I have him for 33.

      Looking forward to a fun season, of discussing our favorite team with you.

      • cubtex

        Tony- I am not saying that the Cubs will win 90! I am just being more optimistic than you!

        I am realistic with the shortcomings of this team. Offense will be inconsistent!

        I said Garza,Z and Dempster will win 45. That means Z or Dempster will win 15 or better and Garza 14.

        We’ll see what happens!

        • Tony

          Lay off the exclamation points, feels like you are yelling :)

          What about Pena at 31 HR’s? I feel if he stays healthy and plays all year, he will hit HR’s out of Wrigley, alot easier than Tropicana, so I thought I was being cautious at 33.

          I will make a friendly bet on the 45 W by Z, Dempster, and Garza. Loser has to post something about how wrong they were.

          I am worried about this offense, but think that by the time the sun is shining and the wind is blowing out, this offense might look a little different, and be able to score some runs, then.

          • cubtex

            So that is why you think I am always mad :) I never understood why you always say that. ok i will lay off the !!!!!

            Maybe I am being a little conservative on Pena but he is going to a new league and there is a little adjustment period figuring out new pitchers.

            I am with you…the offense is the biggest concern I have with this team. No team speed and against some top pitchers you need to manufacture runs with a stolen base,bunt,hitting the ball on the right side to move a runner to 3rd etc. This team doesn’t have any team speed or situational hitters. A lot of their hitters strike out a lot so that is my concern as well.

            That is a big reason I have Garza with 14.

            It won’t be a slam dunk by all means that Z,Dempster,Garza will win 45 but barring injuries they should be real real close. You got it. I am on for that bet.

          • Tony

            Multiple exclamtion points, consecutive sentences, etc makes it seem like you are mad, angry, yelling.

            Exclamation points to highlight a sentence are ok.

            Garza’s wins – last year 15 with a team with a team with 96 wins.
            Moving to the a team that you are projecting to win 83 wins, I see a bigger drop off. When you add in the fact, that he won 4 games in June, when he was pitching bad, I just don’t see it.

            Aren’t you glad games are starting and we can start talking about real outcomes!

          • cubtex

            To me Tony, as long as Garza stays healthy and gets his starts….14 games at least is realistic even if the Cubs perform badly this year. Dempster won 15 last year and Z went 8-0 in the second half. Many starters have won 15 plus games in a season on sub .500 teams.

            For what it is worth…Bruce Levine just predicted 15 plus for Garza on his weekly chat on and called him a proven quality major league starter.

            Yes, I am tired of all this ST stats and talk how players suck because they had a bad spring. Play Ball!

          • Ripsnorter1

            Levine says 15? Make that 15 losses & I might agree.

          • Ripsnorter1


  • The Maven

    668 runs scored
    10 wins for Garza
    25 homers for Pena
    32 doubles for Castro

    The Cubs start off hot but cool down in May. They’ll post their first losing record in June and will start to free fall after the All-Star break.

    As the losses pile up, Garza implodes on his teammates and explodes in the media. Quade then starts losing his veterans, and August is a disaster.

    Trades, benchings, and releases ensue. The Cubs play at a a near .500 level in September, as youngsters are recalled from the minors. Castro hits only 32 doubles, as teams start pitching around him because of a lack of a #3 hitter.

    With the last minute upswing, the media will report that the Cubs are now moving in the right direction. The off-season will see a desperate flurry of veteran acquisitions.

    And then, we’ll get to see this all again next year.

    By the way, here is a link that every Cubs fan should watch before the season. At least, until they win the World Series.

  • John G

    84-78 3rd place
    816 runs
    13 W’s for Garza
    23 HR’s for Peña
    32 doubles for Castro

  • D5r4booth

    I think the Cubs will relaxed and play better than expected.

    88 – 74 record
    729 runs
    Garza 16 wins
    Pena 42 HR’s
    Castro 33 doubles

  • BosephHeyden

    Cubs score around 570 runs
    Garza wins 13
    Pena hits 14
    Castro finishes with 33

    • BosephHeyden

      Also: tickets hit the $20 mark by mid-July

  • Coachdon

    My take: 76-86 and 4th place, 693 runs, Garza will win 12, Pena will hit 27, and Castro will get 38 doubles. I like Cashner but I predict that he struggles mightily in the rotation. Soriano, Pena, and Fukudome will have a combined average of around .225. One third of your lineup can’t be that bad and still win a lot. Bright side…lots of youngsters by the end of the year.

  • jw

    Cubs will stay healthy and win 91 games finishing strong and taking the first playoff series deep. (As I sip my rum and coke this somehow seems reasonable to me.)

    Cubs will struggle to score runs but end up with 675 runs. Garza will get 15 wins Pena 27 home runs and Castro 32 doubles

  • Larry

    Runs scored 733
    Garza wins 14
    Pena hits 41
    Castro hits 37

    Rebound years from Ramirez, Soriano and Pena, coupled with continued growth from Soto, Castro and Colvin propel the Cubs offense to unanticipated heights. Solid pitching, both starting and relief, help the Cubs set the pace in the early going, with Zambrano finally delivering on his big contract. Barney wins the Rookie of the Year award with stellar defence and surprising offence, which moves him ultimately into the lead-off position.

    Cubs win the division and make it as far as the NLCS. Go Cubs.

    • Ripsnorter1

      Colvin is not even a starter for THIS team.

  • John_CC

    Same team as last year. The only three everyday players that look better this year with one more year on their ages are Tyler Colvin, Castro, and maybe Soto. This is a sub .500 team.


    1. this is one of the most anemic offensive lineups I can remember – 727 runs
    2. Garza will have ups and downs but put up respectable pitcher’s stats by the end of the year. Too bad W’s do not translate, see #1 – 13 W
    3. 29 HR (.243 BA, 89 RBI and great clubhouse presence)
    4. 39 DBL (14 HR and 7 triples)

    (blind predictions without reading this great string yet)

    Let’s Play Ball!!!

  • John_CC

    Who was the “Coolest Commentator on the CCO in Twenty-Ten”?

    • PleaseStopLosing

      Just to reference this year to last year I looked back and re-read everyones predictions from last year…

      Out of everybody’s guesses only 3 people predicted the Cubs to have a losing record (Aaron, Ripsnorter and Myself). Rip was the closest to the record, then I, then Aaron.
      It’s funny to look at all the people predicting losing records this year that didn’t predict them last year when we have basically the same team and apparently made some “key additions” in Garza and Pena.

      I’m predicting 76-86 for the upcoming year.
      672 runs.
      Garza wins 12.
      Pena hits 26.
      Castro has 34.

      Just like last year– I hope I’m wrong.

      Go Cubs!!

    • Neil

      No one correctly predicted the Cubs record last year. Had three winners in 2009.

      • Ripsnorter1

        I missed by onegame. Not too bad.

  • Dbyers23

    743 runs
    15 garza wins
    31 pena hr
    26 castro doubles

  • Gramps

    707 runs scored
    15 wins for Garza
    37 homers for Pena
    48 doubles for Castro

    Looking forward to the opener. It has been a long winter. I haven’t made many comments but have followed the site every day. I did not like the Quade hiring but will give him his props for the way he has handled the job so far. Maybe it was a good hire when you think of managers without major league playing experience that have gone on to be great managers like Walter Alston, Casey Stengel and Tony LaRussa (just a few games in the majors). The Cubs seem to have a decent starting rotation and a great bullpen. For this reason, I hope they try to get their starter a lead as soon as they can in every game. They have to be better with runners in scoring position than they have been in recent years. The other concern is fielding……they can’t allow the other team more than 3 outs per inning. If they can clean up these 2 shortcomings they can be a surprise in the Central Division. After all the conjecture on this site over the winter, it now comes down to playing the games. That is what baseball is about…..playing the games. Slumping players, injuries, weather, etc. all have a great say in the outcome of a team’s season. Let’s hope the Cubs have a great season. As always, GO CUBS!

  • Agustin_Rexach

    87-75 our over all pitching is very, very good. Our defense is very bad, but Barney and Castro should come around at some point and play solid Defense and Ramirez could get his act together for the sake of his future contract and/or tradeability. Soriano will have a good year and it will be a fun year to watch compared to last. I honestly wish we could end up in last place so that We can finally rebuild and we get the 1st pick. But regretfully we have a good enough team to honestly compete and yet not go anywhere. We will be on the wild card race til the end and will come short by 3 games.
    Maybe next year! Hope I’m wrong, can’t wait till tomorrow!!!! Play Ball, Go Cubs.

    Btw anything can happen with this team because it is a very unpredictable one. I would not be surprised to find out that they are really good or really bad. Honestly, it is very hard to know with this 2011 team! (that is usually bad lol)

    • Agustinrexach

      Peña 29
      Castro 39
      Garza 14

  • BillyFinT

    Cubs: 79-83. I’ll go along with Pecota (80-82); rather have some base for prediction than out of no-where. I’m not worried about Garza’s performance as an above average #2, but I’m not confident with the Cubs ability to produce runs.

    First tiebreaker – 710 Runs.
    Second tiebreaker – 10 wins for Matt Garza, whatever. As long as the Cubs win…

    Third tiebreaker – 26 home runs for Carlos Pena, his IsoP had dropped due to effective shifting from opposite defence; no way Pena get to 30+ with his age.

    Fourth tiebreaker – 40 doubles for Starlin Castro, go with Bill James, but with my optimism of this brilliant young man, Plus One.

    • cubtex

      Pena turns 33 on May 17th. We are not talking Jim Thome here! He is not that old.

      • BillyFinT

        …, while Jim Thome had a hell of a career, a few miles above Pena’s stratosphere. Will Albert Pujols become Pena was last year at age 32? No, Prince Albert will be much better at age 32.

    • John_CC

      We’re pretty close, Dorasaga. I don’t think Pena will crack 30 HR either, I said 29. I think I said 39 doubles for Castro based on his 29 for last year and like you, I have to be optimistic about something on this team.

      • BillyFinT

        Since you mentioned, I went back to check… “78-84.”

        If this is a bid war for a public construction, then you would have won. Too bad it’s about the Cubs.

        Go Get Them! Win, prove us wrong!

  • cc002600

    Garza – 13 wins
    Pena – 34 HR
    Castro – 35
    Runs 750

  • Nicholas

    81 – 81
    732 runs
    Garza 13 wins
    Pena 33 HR’s
    Castro 33 doubles

  • JedMosley

    740 runs
    Garza 16 wins
    Pena 34 HR’s
    Castro 42 Doubles

  • Papi Lubricante

    80-82 tied for 3rd in the Division
    709 runs tied for last in the Division
    Garza 14 wins
    Pena 29 HR’s
    Castro 32 doubles

  • Ripsnorter1

    678 runs
    Garza 8-14
    Pena 27 HR
    Castro 35 doubles

  • SuzyS

    I see the Cubs really tanking it in….with a mediocre pitching staff…no serious 1rst or second baseman and a 3rd base eruption…before a mid season trade.
    Colvin with a sophomore slump/Woody ineffective/ & Garza hitting his stride with nine wins. (Nice trade, Jimbo!!!)
    At best, Wells is .500/Cashner is learning…Demster has maybe 14 or 15 wins & “Z” does what “Z” always does….IMPLODES along with the team….

    68 wins – 94 losses
    692 Runs
    Garza – 9 wins and the DL
    Pena gets 24 dingers while hitting UNDER the Mendoza line
    Castro gets his 40 doubles….but probably with just as many errors
    Quade wishes Sandberg got the job instead….sometime around July and is totally toasted by September.
    Ricketts gives Hendry another contract extension.

    The good? We get to see Coleman and Jackson (both of them arrive…with September looks at McNutt & others)

    Yep, I’m really excited…and will be until JH is dumped.

    • JedMosley

      The only thing you’re excited about is a couple average minor leaguers? I understand all of the question marks on this team but that’s sad, I’m sorry everything looks so dreadful to you.

  • Scott McMeekan

    80 – 82
    628 runs
    Garza – 12 wins
    Pena – 29 HR’s
    Castro – 32 doubles

  • JimBo_C

    Team Wins 86
    Team Runs 707
    Garza wins 14
    Pena Dingers 36
    Castro doubles 43

  • J Wilson

    Cubs Record: 83-81
    Garza wins 12 games
    Carlos Pena hits 29Hrs
    Starlin Castro hits 37 doubles

  • J Wilson

    Cubs Record: 83-81
    Cubs Runs Scored: 732
    Garza: 13 W
    Carlos Pena: 29Hrs
    Starlin Castro: 37 doubles

    • Sean

      Hey, just FYI, your record prediction adds up to 164 games

  • Sean

    Record: 83-79
    Runs: 734
    Garza: 16 wins
    Pena: 32 HR
    Castro: 41 doubles

  • RickinMSP

    75-87 No lead-off hitter, too many strike outs, poor situational hitting, bad defense, aging line up, no pop off the bench.
    684 runs, just over 4.2 runs per game. The pitching staff will have an ERA of about the some, but the defense will give up too many unearned runs.
    35 Home runs for Pena. He won’t hit for much of an average, but will stay healthy all year and benefit from the wind blowing out in the summer.
    41 doubles for Castro. This will be his only really big doubles year because as his strength develops, many of those doubles will turn into home runs.
    Oh, and 14 wins for Garza, solid season, but nothing special.

  • Baron_S

    83-79 record
    700 runs
    31 HR for Pena
    34 doubles for Castro

    all in all won’t be a bad effort for the kind of team — hopefully can jettison some folks next season and go for 90 wins in 2012


    • Baron_S

      oh and 14 wins for Garza with a 3.60 ERA…

  • NashCubFan

    712 runs
    Garza – 13 wins
    Pena – 31 HRs
    Castro – 35 2B

    There is a good corps of young players, but a constant drag from Soriano, Ramirez, and Fukudome will produce less than a .500 year.

    The Cubs scored 685 runs last year. During Quade’s successful run they scored 4.162 runs per game. If this is spread over 162 games it would come out to 674 runs. So, his success was not in producing more offense. I am just being optimistic that Ramirez CAN’T be less productive, Soriano’s “young” legs, and Pena’s HRs will add a little more production.

    Garza had 15 wins last year with a pretty good team. Early in the year with wind blowing in he may be somewhat successful. I would not be surprised with a 3-win April. But, as the summer drags on, balls will be leaving the yard – 13 wins.

    Pena had a horrible year lat year. He will rebound some, but will strike out over 160 times. He has averaged 36 HRs over the last 4 years. Because his BA may get over the Mendoza line, he will hit more than the 28 HR of last year, but won’t get to 36.

    Castro hit 31 doubles last year in 463 AB. If he can play 150 gamesand get 580 AB that is a 25.3% increase in AB over 2010. In 2010 he averaged a double every 14.94 AB. If he gets 580 AB that would be 39 doubles. This Spring he has hit 4 doubles in 66 AB, or a 2B every 16.5 AB. That would be 35 2B. There are high expectations for the young SS.

    Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the 2011 Chicago Cubs! 2012, now that’s another story. I’ll be the first to predict 87-75 in 2012.

  • Tom from Peoria

    731 runs
    Garza 14 wins
    Pena 31 home runs
    Castro 37 doubles

  • SteveGA

    689 runs
    Garza 12 wins
    Pena 31 homers
    Castro 29 doubles

  • Swede

    Cubs will go 87-75 while scoring 691 runs. Garza will win 14; Pena will hit 29 HR, and Castro will have 39 doubles. Let’s get on with it!

  • Gary J

    Cubs Record: 85-77
    Runs 700 even
    Garza 15 wins
    Pena 35 HR
    Castro 39 doubles

    And worth mentioning – while most publications do have the Cubs predicted for 3rd or 4th, it’s usually right around .500 and only 5-6 games out of first.

    For example the PETCOA rating had them in 4th at 80-82… but the Reds won the division with only 85 wins.

    Last time I checked 5-6 games out of first wasn’t well out of the playoff picture – just sayin’ :-) The division is wide open – I just know it’s not going to be Pittsburgh.

  • Cheryl

    84 wins
    723 runs
    Garza 16 wins
    Pena 34 home runs
    Castro 29 doubles

  • serothis Drechsler

    As I see the cubs we have decent supporting cast but we lack the difference makers. I think our supporting cast will keep us out of the cellar but whether we are above or below 500 really rests on a couple of players.

    Big Z – If he can continue what he did during the second half of last year then we’re in good shape (and ST was encouraging) if not….well crap. He’s arguably the most unpredictable

    Pena – I know the least about and so if he’s more consistent the dlee was the last couple of years then we have a better chance of being .500+

    ARAM – he, like z, is unpredictable. If he’s hot he’s going to carry the team but late he’s been mediocre at best.

    Soriano – The only reason I have him on this list is not because I think he’ll play well (he won’t) but because of how many days he spends on the DL. If he’s on the DL then we can play colvin in left more (assuming Q still has his hardon for “vets” like fukedome).

    That having been said, I don’t expect much from this team simply because there are WAY too many IFs. too many things have to come together for us to do well.

    My prediction:

    699 Runs
    Garza 11
    Pena 27 HR’s
    Castro 31 Doubles

    • Serothis

      I have no idea why google put my sn and my last name…weird.

  • Scott Parsons



    724 runs

    Garza wins 12 games. Pena hits 20 HRs. Castro hits 30 doubles.

    • Henry

      since i live in a fantasy world the cubs will go 91-71
      runs 704
      garza 14 wins
      pena 27 HR
      Castro 37 doubles
      I am not making any post season predictions at this time. Check back with me in October. Since I live in a fantasy world I may have some to make!

  • Scurvy

    14 Garza
    26 Pena
    36 Doubles for Castro

  • cubsklm

    Bad team – Bad off-season moves starting with hiring the new manager.
    No leadoff hitter – no 2B – 10 million for a bum at 1B.
    Hendry & Quade both get fired after the season.

    682 runs
    Garza 12 wins
    Pena 27 hr’s
    Castro 32 doubles

    • Serothis

      I disagree. I think even if JH and Q lost 100+ games they would still have jobs. The amount of boneheaded moves JH has made but still has a his job tells me that the only way he’s leaving is if he does so of his own accord.

  • studio179

    Cubs: 78 wins
    Cubs: 707 runs
    Garza: 13 wins
    Pena: 32 home runs
    Castro: 34 doubles

  • Fin4cubs

    712 runs scored
    10 W’s for Garza
    29 long one’s for Pena
    40 2B’s for Castro

    I’d really like to be more optimistic but…, Ramirez may surprise do to basically a contract year for him(somewhere else), Soriano will have his moments(not weeks,months), Fukodome will be Fukodome, no more maybe less. I do like Castro to beat the soph. slump at the plate though and Geo may have gotten his head out and be ready for a solid year again. As a cub lifer, sadly they’re out of it early. The AA/AAA train should be logging some miles, and rightfully so, get ’em up and get ’em started…should be able to shed some big money at seasons end and then we’ll see where Ricketts intends to steer the train in ’12 and beyond.

  • stu_studdly

    728 runs
    Garza 11 wins
    Pena 26 HR’s
    Castrol 31 doubles

  • nick_ss

    755 runs
    13 wins for Garza
    39 HR’s for Pena
    30 Doubles for Castro

  • Charlie Chaplin Jarosław