Baseball Prospectus Projects an 80-82 Campaign for the Chicago Cubs

March 30, 2011 By 11 Comments

Opening Day for the Chicago Cubs is Friday … and Baseball Prospectus has updated their projections for the upcoming season. PECOTA has projected an 80-82 campaign for Q’s crew, fourth place in the NL Central, five games behind the first place Milwaukee Brewers.

PECOTA is projecting a similar finish as other national publications such as Sports Illustrated and Athlon Sports for the Chicago Cubs. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are based on playing-time weighted projections for each player, which builds up a team projection.

Please keep in mind that these are projections and the same system predicted the Cubs would win the Central Division in 2009 with 92 wins and finish third in the division with a 77-85 record last season.

Here’s how PECOTA sees the 2011 MLB season playing out:

National League

East
Philadelphia Phillies – 89-73
Atlanta Braves – 87-75
Florida Marlins – 84-78
New York Mets – 81-81
Washington Nationals – 72-90

Central
Milwaukee Brewers – 85-77
St. Louis Cardinals – 84-78
Cincinnati Reds – 82-80
Chicago Cubs – 80-82
Pittsburgh Pirates – 71-91
Houston Astros – 68-94

West
San Francisco Giants – 90-72
Los Angeles Dodgers – 87-75
Colorado Rockies – 83-79
San Diego Padres – 79-83
Arizona Diamondbacks – 75-87

American League

East
Boston Red Sox – 94-68
New York Yankees – 92-70
Tampa Bay Rays – 85-77
Baltimore Orioles – 81-81
Toronto Blue Jays – 75-87

Central
Detroit Tigers – 83-79
Chicago White Sox – 82-80
Minnesota Twins – 82-80
Cleveland Indians – 74-88
Kansas City Royals – 68-94

West
Texas Rangers – 84-78
Oakland Athletics – 83-79
Los Angeles Angels – 78-84
Seattle Mariners – 71-91

Click here for Baseball Prospectus’ Depth Chart that includes runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging percentage for each team. PECOTA sees the Cubs scoring 776 runs, allowing 789 runs and compiling a team line of .265/.332/.425.

Thursday is contest day at the CCO. The annual predictions contest will take place Thursday, a day before Opening Day with the winner receiving some swag and a very cool title.

It’s almost time to PLAY BALL!


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  • Wickitkevin

    That pretty much where I have them this year.

  • studio179

    They had the Cubs at 79 wins last year and they won 75. I have them at 80 wins for a best case scenerio in 2011, too. Then again, the guy on the other shoulder is laughing and saying 77 is your best bet. Hmm…

  • studio179

    I will predict the Pirates will not finish last in the NL Central. Houston, you have a problem. Okay, cheesy, but still…

    • BosephHeyden

      I agree. I think that either the Royals or the Pirates will be crawling out of the cellar this year and, while not winning their division, they’ll at least make a number of teams hurt and come closer to .500 than they’ve been in a while.

  • http://twitter.com/sadsamjones Stuart Sudak

    That’s about what I think. Of course, I’m still holding out hope that the pieces will fall in place and this will be the year. I’m always both optimistic and delusional at this time of year. Yeah, just your average Cubs fan.

    • Ripsnorter1

      But at least you recognize your problem . . . .(smile).

      I remember those days, too. When I was younger and full of hope.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Richard-Hood/100000706523521 Richard Hood

    I have em at 82 wins and tied for 3rd in the central. I do not have team in the central being dominant and 87 wins from the Cardinals winning the dang thing.

    • studio179

      I believe the Cards won 86 games in ’06 when they won it all. I have to check, but that sounds right. Anyway, I agree the NL Central will not have a dominant team.

      • Mitchener

        actually i think it was 83-79.

  • paulcatanese

    This has been a great year for me following the Cubs from the latter part of last year to now. I have had more information about the team ever. And I have been a Cub fan since 1939-40. This has been the first Spring training that I have ever known anything about what was going on with the Cubs. I owe this to the computer my son gave me,the Maven and his articles Tom, and all the Guys I argued with and agreed with on this site, and of course Neil for having the site and helping me to be able to post,Thanks everyone,now lets get it going in 2011.

    • Dorasaga

      Go get them!