Cubs Close on a Long-Term Deal with Marmol?

According to a report from the Tribune, Jim Hendry is close to finalizing a long-term contract with Carlos Marmol. The deal should be announced before pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park next weekend (February 13).

Reports from Bruce Levine have suggested for weeks that the Cubs and Carlos Marmol have been working on a multi-year contract. Levine has consistently reported the deal would be in the three-year range.

Carlos Marmol is the Cubs only arbitration eligible player left unsigned for the upcoming season. In his second year of arbitration eligibility, Marmol submitted a $5.65 million figure for 2011 and the Cubs countered with $4.1 million. Marmol earned $2.125 million last year.

According to Levine, the Cubs are looking to buy out the last two years of Marmol’s arbitration eligibility and at least his first year of free agency.

Carlos Marmol posted a 2-3 record last year with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 77 games. Marmol finished 70 games and picked up 38 saves in his first full year as the Cubs closer. Marmol struck out 138 batters, walked 52 and hit eight batters in 77 2/3 innings. Marmol set a record with a phenomenal 16.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

Carlos Marmol’s Page on Baseball-Reference

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  • paulcatanese

    Neil,isn’t that kind of a touchy situation for Marmol,given the history behind Cub players that go to arbitration ? I know the Cubs want very badly to keep him in the fold but then again they (the Cubs ) have shown a determination not to be dictated by players when they feel they have made a fair offer. Could it be that Marmol would be traded? This is not so much a question for you as it is for the blog.

    • Neil

      Paul, sorry I did not respond earlier … I just saw your comment.

      I do not think (and have not heard) there is anything negative going on between the Cubs and Marmol. From the way I’ve understood it, they have been working on a multi-year contract for a while. Neither side has a desire for this to make it to the arbitration hearing. And from what I’ve heard/read, not one expects it to go that far … even if they cannot workout a long-term contract.

      Also, I do not think they are shopping Marmol or have a desire to trade him.But if they do, a long-term contract could make him more valuable on the market. Fixed cost for at least three years for a pitcher with Marmol’s stuff could net the Cubs quite a return if they decide to go in that direction.

      • paulcatanese

        Neil,don’t sweat it, I try to sneak that first comment in when it posts as I know everyone is asleep back in Chicago. I have two hours to play with. If I had to do what you do every day on this blog I wouldn’t have time to xxxx . I don’.t know how you keep up with it all, just a great job.

  • BillyFinT

    5.65 vs. 4.1 is a huge gap, and I don’t know how the Cubs can amend that. A 22 million contract of three years for a player under team-control doesn’t sound like the Cubs, at least not this Cubs.

    I’m saying 22 million dollars if we work the numbers backwards. If 5.65 is 60% of Marmol’s expected free agent value, then we add this to his 2012, 80%, and his 2013, 100%, then it’s a million and more above $22M, but I’ll say a minor discount for an extension of contract with his home team.

    Nobody in baseball history had done what Carlos Marmol had. NEVER. 16 strikeouts per nine (minimum 50 innings-played), which shows his ability that he had demonstrated again and again in his career.

    If the Cubs cannot retain Senior Nasty right now, then there is no reason why I should expect anything good out of Jim Hendry and his company. And to be honest, I don’t have the patience to wait about their arbitration result* and until July 31 to find out which AL team Marmol be traded.

    *Arbitration, again, is a good thing. Below (link to the old CCO community blog) is a snip of what arbitration truly is. Although, the Cubs never thought so, oh, so were the Pirates, and the Athletics… See where the Cubs sense is? Among the poor and “we’ll just dump young players who’s filing arbitration, because we don’t need to win unless … well, we don’t need to win.” Pathetic:

  • Tony

    Wrap up Marmol – 3 years, to buy out his 1st FA Year.

    3 years $23M is what I come up with for Marmol

    2011 – $5M
    2012 – $8M
    2013 – $10M

    Look around at the closer market, he is still a bargain. But the key to this negotiation, is giving him a GUARANTEED $23M, but for that he is giving up FA in 2013, AND the Cubs should insist on a team option for 2014 – $12M, and even a team option for 2015 @ $12M.

    Papelbon received these salaries in his 3 years of arbitration eligibility
    09 – $6.25M
    10 – $9,.35M
    11 – $12.0M

    Marmol WILL WIN @ arbitration. But the Cubs can offer him more guaranteed money, by agreeing to a deal. This will get done, because it makes SO much sense.

  • Tony

    Here are some examples of Closers arb years and contracts

    3.775M – 7.0M – 10.0M
    Marmol compares to KRod and all those K’s. This was a few years ago, so 5/8/10 for $23M is a comparable range.

    H Bell
    Why so little? He wasn’t a closer until 09, when he made $1.25M as a bullpen guy.

    Here is the one the Cubs should have looked at a year or 2 ago.
    J Soria
    1M – (Year 3)
    3M – (Arb 1)
    4M – (Arb 2)
    6M – (Arb 3) Club Option
    8M – (FA 1) Club Option
    8.75M – (FA 2) Club Option

    That is how you give financial security, to a young player, prior to having to, but get a VERY good deal for the team.

  • Tony

    Brian Wilson

    09 – $0.48M
    10 – $4.4375M
    11 – $6.5M
    12 – $8.5M

  • Tony

    Now, I know some people may say, that Marmol has only been the full-time closer for 1 year. But many will also say, Marmol has been the “Closer” for the Cubs since 2007 (4 years). Marmol has been acting like the closer, even if he was pitching in the 8th inning.

  • Neil

    From Carrie Muskat: Cubs working on long-term deal with Carlos Marmol but he needs to undergo physical first, most likely done in Mesa

  • cubtex

    A long term deal for Marmol scares me! With his violent delivery I think he is a time bomb waiting to happen. I hope I am wrong but I feel it is just a matter of time before he blows out him arm,elbow,shoulder etc!!!

    • paulcatanese

      You make a good point,I hope it dosen’t happen.Why can’t more relievers throw like Rivera from the Yanks,smooth and durable. But I think Marmol will survive if not overworked and other semi-closers are used to rest him periodicly. One thing in his favor he was a catcher prior to pitching and may have not “used” all his pitches. Only so many to a arm. Who knows conditioning his arm as a catcher might have been to his benefit. Hope so.

    • paulcatanese

      Lets expand a little on what I said. First he has to sign,ultimatly he will of course. Second lets go into the heads of Marmol and the hitters he face’s. Marmol believes they will chase his pitches,and they do. He concentrates on that fact.He knows they cannot hit his slider,but has a tendacy not to throw that pitch for a strike,unless he is ahead in the count,which he trys to do on the first pitch. If he gets ahead he predomatly goes to the slider off the corners.All of this creates a lot of extra pitches for him.Unless the batter swings at those Marmol runs the count because working the corners will be balls as well as strikes. He has an excellent fastball and wish he would use it more thn he does. Anyway the point is he throws a lot of pitches. Now the hitter knoowing that Marmol is sometimes wild decides he is going to make Marmol throw a strike and is usually taking on the first pitch.If its a strike the hitter is virtually dead in the water. If not a strike,the hitter again waits and here is where Maarmol gets into trouble,he goes to the slider again and again.In theory good idea as the slider he throws is unhitable.But the count goes up.The main thing here is that he throws a lot of pitches in relief and back to back nights couldbe telling on his arm. Answer,,,more fastballs,less strain,less pitches. I love watching him pitch,very entertaining,never without excitement and heart palpitations when he does. I do hope his arm holds,there have been few and far between like him.

      • cubtex

        Agreed Paul……He definately makes it exciting some games. For a one inning closer, I would guess that Marmol is at the top of the list for most pitches thrown per inning. I don’t have the stats….but if anyone does that would be interesting to compare Marmol to some of the others in the National League. Most closers don’t have a long shelf life like Rivera or Trevor Hoffman. Papelbon is already wearing out his welcome in Boston, Bobby Jenks on the South Side, and the list goes on. Personally, I don’t think Marmol will be an effective closer for years and years. I would do a 2 year deal on him but not more than that.

        • paulcatanese

          I don’t know who Boby Jenks is cause I really,really dislike the White Sox(pains me to put them with a capital letter in front) I agree but hope it won’t happen that Marmol has only two years left and hope for longer. As far as pitch count I would not know either where to find that,and it would be interesting to know,and some of the guys on this blog have an uncanny ability to find those.

  • jw

    Wild as he is no one throws a slider like that. I do think signing him for 22-23mm is a wise move. Unless injured he is still very tradable. My feeling is that he will be very good in 2011 with Pinella no longer glaring from the dugout step. If he can control his pitches a bit better and pitch to the first batter as if the bases were loaded he could be one of the top shut down closers in the league.

    • paulcatanese