Is Jim Hendry Looking to Add a Veteran Infielder?

Aaron – you put forth very insightful and statistically supported analysis time and again and and I give you credit for the effort you put into that part of things. EVEN when I disagree with you. Perhaps even especially when I disagree.

However when someone disagrees with you, there’s scorn. Obviously I just don’t get it. My view of reality is twisted.

I can see you being bitter about the Cubs. I get it.

But just thinking that the future looks bright sooner than 2013… it’s not insanity. I think the Cubs can compete this year. But with the money coming off the books next year (and the players associated with that money) it’s not unreasonable to think that they are very well positioned for 2012.

Do I think the other teams in the division are strong? Yeah. I’d be foolish to not think it. But do I think that (and here’s that word again Agustin LOL) IF certain things fall right do I think it would be a shock to see the Cubs making a run this year? Yes. I do. I think the starting pitching is strong. I think the pen is strong. I think the lineup has holes… but I also think it wouldn’t be a miracle if A Ram had a comeback year and Pena hit .250 with 35 HR and 100 RBI (it’s his average year after all). If we get a decent contribution from Soriano on top of it with .280/30/90… suddenly we’re contenders.

Saying I’m part of a crowd trying to “drown out” the reality of the situation by disagreeing with your analysis of how screwed we are by posting an analysis of my own from time to time… or get called out of my mind for thinking the Garza deal was meant to improve the team and not as a PR move though…. ummmm…. I truly don’t.

First off, they were discussing Garza for a month – and yes – there were reports of that during the winter meetings so it’s not Hendry lying to us like he does all the time spinning things in a way that tries to pull the wool over all our eyes.

He had budget constraints. He got a solid MLB guy for a reasonable salary that isn’t a one year rental.

Given a choice between Garza and Archer I’d take Garza every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Frankly I still feel Garza is a number 2 quality pitcher, and who in fact WAS a number 2 in Tampa last year winning 15 games in his third year as a starter on the team that won the NL East. He has electric stuff and at 27 is young enough to still harness it and become something truly special… but even if he doesn’t there’s something to be said for a kid that chews up innings with a sub 4 era. Heck hitters have hit .252 for him on his career to this point. That’s a solid pitcher.

Archer has electric stuff as well – and he’s also a Nuke LaLoosh clone walking 5 guys per 9 in his five years in the minors against talent with a supposedly inferior grasp of the strike zone. He put it together enough to jump the charts last year – but was that a true shift or a fluke? Time will tell. Hopefully he succeeds. Either way, he’s not ready in 2011 to contribute. He still needs seasoning at the very least.

And by 2012 when he may be ready to come up, then there’s McNutt (just as highly regarded as Archer), Coleman, Carpenter… heck 7 of our top 10 rated prospects are pitchers. Even after the trade.

So it’s a position of depth. Of which none of them are ready to pitch on the major league level in 2011. Not at the start of the season at any rate.

And a lot can happen in a year. Heck. Before last year Archer was just a kid that threw pretty hard. Not a top prospect at all. Just another name in the system with good number on the gun. He put together a great year last year – pretty special actually – but there will be someone in the system that does something just as unexpected this year too. Happens every year.

In that sense, they traded a guy in Archer that would need another year in the minors for a guy that can pitch this year toward the top of the rotation – a solid proven major league arm. And he’ll be still in the rotation in 2013 when Z and Demp are free agents.

And do I think Garza makes us a better team? Heck yeah. Do I think he’s a difference maker this year and not just a PR move? Yeah I honestly do. Without him I don’t think there was any chance of competing in the division. With him I think there is. So that’s an impact move.

Could Archer be a success? Sure. It could happen.

But I’m not a moron for thinking he won’t be. Some of his peripherals (K/9) point to stardom and others (BB/9, K/BB ratio) point to major trouble.

At 22 he’s got time – but he’s still just a B+ rated prospect in the overall scheme of things. He wasn’t clearly the top pitching prospect in the system – most sources prior to the trade in fact had McNutt rated higher other than BA – but they were pretty much interchangeable in the rankings. He’s not a can’t miss star – he’s simply a guy with a promising future. Perhaps very promising. That’s all. Any other statement is over hyping the guy. And even being the top prospect in the Cubs system he still barely cracked the top 50 overall in the minors… so he’s by no stretch a “can’t miss”.

But if you’re going to rate him that way, give Hendry a little credit with that 20/20 hindsight and say that trading DeRo for him (and two others) might have worked out pretty well.

Hendry’s made his share of good and bad moves.

Hendry traded for Pierre – bust. Hendry traded for ARam and Lee – hits. He signed Soriano – injury – so I’m going to call that a push because given his track record when signed it falls in the “what could have been” category. He signed Fuku – bust. He signed Lilly – hit.

He’s not infallible. No one is. Hindsight bad contracts are part of baseball. Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Pavano (with the Yanks) – all looked impressive at the time and then (insert sound of toilet flushing here).

Back to Archer though – for every prospect that hits it like Price and Lincecum out there, there are a dozen more that hit AA or AAA and hit their ceiling. Or they get to the bigs and can’t get over the hump to projected stardom. Joba Chamberlain and Luke Hochevar are a couple that jump to recent memory that were FAR more highly regarded coming out the minors than anything the Cubs currently have (or had) in their system… and while the jury is still out and there’s still plenty of time for them to blossom, it’s been anything but the instant impact stardom that was projected. A major league rotation has 5 players each year – 6 or 7 if you figure in injuries. And of those 5, let’s say 3-4 are career proven major leaguers. Guys with big contracts and success… and that’s the fact for most teams. So the odds of a minor leaguer coming up and cracking a rotation are pretty slim to begin with.

Yes – I completely agree – they gave up a bunch. But really – that “bunch” worked out to Archer, Lee and a projected backup catcher. The other guys, both on our side and theirs, were toss ins.

Was it too much? Well even then I’d say probably. Yes. I’m agreeing with you. I think that’s a nice haul for the Rays. Even for my criticism of Archer above I think he’ll have success in the bigs eventually… how much still awaits to be seen though… and it’s not a guarantee.

But I don’t by any stretch think it was a completely clueless and irresponsible thing to do. I think it was a solid baseball move. He outbid other teams in order to pull it off – but we don’t know what the other teams were bidding and likely never will for certain. And given the fact that you yourself have said multiple times how crappy the Cubs track record is with producing from within – it’s a good move. It’s a solid move.

I truly believe that.

So I guess that makes me (hang on – have to look back at the post) out of my mind.

I was upset they included Lee in the deal. I wanted him to stay prior to the deal and I’m of the same mind after. I still feel he has a good chance to be a contributor down the road. Could have been the leadoff hitter in 2013. Maybe. Assuming a lot of things fell just right and he continues to grow. But Castro is blocking him for the next few years, so it made sense to trade him. And Soto was blocking at catcher…. so….

And I think the leadoff hitter of the future is actually Scuzur But that’s another discussion.

AUGH! I just started rehashing the things and I said that frustrates me!

So I’m not immune

Aaron – there’s really no hard feelings on my side – like I said I think that time and again you put forth a really well reasoned argument… even if I don’t agree with your position.

I’m just tired of every single bit of news being being hailed as further proof of Hendry being an incompetent moron and how it just demonstrates why the franchise has been a loser for 103 years and that we’re going to be losers for years to come and etc etc etc.

I get bitterness. I get dissatisfaction. But not every move is clearly crap.

And at this time of the year the moves are just moves. Nothing but filler and reaches. For every team.