Waiting for the Official Word on Garza Deal

According to multiple reports, including one from Fernando Perez, the eight-player trade between the Cubs and Rays is done and the only things missing are the press releases from the clubs and for Jim Hendry to hold a press conference.

The Cubs sent five players to Tampa for Matt Garza, Fernando Perez and an unnamed minor league player … some reports have suggested a pitcher (possibly a reliever with Major League experience), others an infielder and one from ESPN 1000 indicated the third player will be the infamous PTBNL. Hendry unloaded four of his top 15 prospects (depending on the publication) and Sam Fuld to mixed reviews. Some like the deal for the Cubs, and some hate the fact Hendry dealt Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos and Brandon Guyer for a pitcher slotted to begin the season as the third starter in Mike Quade’s rotation.

As Bruce Miles so accurately pointed out, once Jim Hendry sets his sights on a player he does not give up, no matter the cost. And on paper, it appears the Cubs gave up a lot for Matt Garza, Fernando Perez and an unnamed minor leaguer.

No one knows how Garza will perform in a Cubs’ uniform but two things are certain. Garza will be under the Cubs control for the next three seasons (arbitration eligible) and the worst-case scenario is the Cubs have three trading deadlines and two off-seasons in which they can find the highest bidder for Matt Garza services.

Fernando Perez
Fernando Perez was on XM Radio with Mike Ferrin and Jeff Nelson on Friday night … and it was an entertaining and informative interview. Perez confirmed he is involved in the trade and said he woke up Friday morning a Chicago Cub.

Jim Hendry called Perez on Friday morning and told him he would have a chance to make the team out of Spring Training.

Perez admitted (without making excuses) that he has been hurt and has played really bad baseball the last two seasons. Perez said he’s feeling very good this winter and is looking forward to the season. He added that he does not really know the situation in Chicago … or many of the players on the roster. Perez mentioned that he and Garza would probably live together while they are in Mesa this spring.

Perez thinks Garza was just as surprised by the news of the trade as he was. Perez was extremely complimentary of Garza and said no Cub fan will ever question his commitment or passion. Garza just wants to win ballgames.

Salary Arbitration Filing
With Matt Garza on his way to Chicago, the Cubs will have a total of seven arbitration cases this off-season. The Cubs have already settled one when Jeff Baker avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.175 million back on December 2. The Cubs still have to work out contracts for Carlos Marmol, Geovany Soto, Koyie Hill, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Matt Garza.

Lost in all of the Garza rumors this past week was players could begin filing for salary arbitration.

Carlos Marmol, Geovany Soto, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Koyie Hill could file for salary arbitration beginning last Wednesday … players have until January 15 to file.

Carlos Marmol, Geovany Soto and Sean Marshall are expected to receive big raises this winter. Marmol is in his second year of arbitration eligibility and could reach the $5 million mark. Marmol earned $2.125 million in 2010.

Marshall earned just under $1 million last season ($950,000) and will see a big increase in pay. Soto is in his first year of arbitration eligibility and will also see a significant increase from his 2010 salary of $575,000.

Garza earned $3.35 million in 2010 and figures to reach at least the $6 million mark for the 2011 season.

Gorzelanny ($800,000 in 2010) and Hill ($700,000 in 2010) could each become millionaires this winter.

Players and teams will exchange figures on January 18 and arbitration hearings take place between February 1 and February 21 … if the two sides cannot agree on a contract.

Stay tuned for the official announcement on the Garza trade to the Cubs …

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  • woody34

    Been awhile since I have posted. But a lot of things are bugging me about this trade.

    1. I understand wanting a proven player vs prospects. But what happened to Mr. Ricketts vow to build from within? An ace pitcher prospect and a future leadoff prospect. Archer would of moved into the rotation THIS season.

    2. The rumors were correct, the Rays were only going to move Garza if they were blown away. The Rays got more for Garza than the Royals did for Greinke. Greinke is a proven Cy Young winner.

    3. Why not try to get Upton in the deal? It’s obvious Hendry overpayed, why not toss in Carpenter/Jackson and someone like Snyder, LaHair, or Burke and expand the trade to include Upton?

    4. By trading Chirinos, in this deal the Cubs are now stuck with Hill as the back up catcher. Castillo won’t hit enough to unseat him in spring training.

    5. Garza is a fly ball pitcher. How well is that going to work out in Wrigley?

    6. Why deal for a position of depth already in the system and not get a corner infielder, bullpen arm, backup catcher, or someone who could at least platoon at 2B?
    How many potential starters do we now have for the rotation?

    1. Zambrano
    2. Dempster
    3. Garza
    4. Gorzelanny
    5. Silva
    6. Wells
    7. Cashner
    8. Samardjizda (if he has an incredible spring)
    9. Coleman
    10. Jackson
    11. Carpenter

    Yes, on that list Garza would probably be in the top two or three – but if Hendry really needed to add a SP why not take a flyer on Francis or Webb etc?

    I guess we can be grateful that Hendry didn’t include Brett Jackson in another one of his man crushes.
    I wish it were the offseason next year already.

    • OttawaBob

      I think the Cubs probably over paid but only by about one player. As far as Archer goes, lets imagine he wasn’t involved in the deal and pitched this year for the Cubs about as well as Garza did last year for the Rays, People here on the CCO would be doing cart-wheels!! Way to many guys here think every Cub prospect is coming up and becoming a superstar, thats just not going to happen.

      doing cart-wheels

      • Tony_Hall

        Not every prospect will become a superstar. But you need lots of them to get the ones that do become superstars.

        Every single player in MLB was a prospect at some point.

        Teams need to be able to develop their own players, that fit their style of play. Tom Ricketts, told us that was what we were going to see.

        I’m just glad that JH didn’t trade Castro last winter, when he was just a prospect.

        Brett Jackson has done nothing in the majors, should we trade him away as well.

        If Archer pitched for the Cubs this year and did as well as Garza for 400k and we still had Hak Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, and Robinson Chirinos, you betcha we would be doing cartwheels, and you should be to.

        That is the point, maybe not this year, when we still are the 4th best team in the NL Central, but next year, Cashner, Archer, McNutt, Coleman, etc,; one of them could have easily duplicated the production of Garza and would have done it for 400k, 5 more years of team control, and our prospects still in our system.

        This is JH “going for it” again, this year”, and trying to save his job, that he should have already lost.

    • Tony_Hall

      Good points.

      The Rays were blown away with this offer. They win this deal, by lots. They are the team that had 6 pitchers for 5 spots, recognized that, moved out the pitcher, that was starting to get expensive, has compatability issues and was a very good, not great pitcher for them. They really lost nothing and gained alot.

      The winner of any deal,(sports, business, life) is the guy who is willing to walk away. The guy who is at the table, needing to make the deal happens always is the loser. The Rays were willing to walk away, and JH was determined to get his guy.

      Garza takes the rotation spot of Cashner, Wells, Gorzellany, Coleman, take your pick, whoever doesn’t make the rotation. So he needs to be better than they would by Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos, and about $5.5M. He should do that in 2011, but by 2012, he will cost $10M+ and these 4.

      • OttawaBob

        Tony, let us also point out that Garza was very good, not great in hands down the strongest division in basebalL !!! The way I see it we traded a back up major league catcher, an outfielder ranked as our #10 prospect, who right now sits behind Colvin and Jackson on the depth charts, a punch and judy light hitting A-ball short stop and a pitcher who hasn’t thrown pitch one in the bigs. just don’t get all the panic here Tony

        • Eddie

          a-mend

        • Tony_Hall

          Garza will do very well in the NL Central.

          Is he C Carpenter? NO
          Is he A Wainwright? NO
          Is he Z Grienke? NO
          Would the Reds have wanted Garza? Probably not

          We gave up a lot to get Garza. The Rays gave up really nothing to get the prospects and salary relief, as they already had the guy in waiting for a rotation spot. That is where I would like the Cubs to get, to where they are the team, trading the guy, about to get expensive, with another guy waiting, in the wings to replace his production, and re-stock the farm system. I don’t want to continue to be the team that trades its prospects to get other teams productive players, that we have to pay.

          Trust me, I will enjoy Garza on this team. I would have also enjoyed Cliff Lee, Roy Hallady, but their price was to high, when they have been available.

          The only panic that has gone on, is JH trading away the future, to try and make a run in 2011. He needs to make more moves, to be competitive in 2011, and that is what scares me.

        • The Maven

          OttawaBob, it sounds like you’ve been listening the the Cubs’ organizational propaganda for too long. Question: Who is one of the best teams at recognizing and developing talent in the Majors? Answer: Tampa Bay. Do you think an organization like the Rays would let a pitcher like Garza for nothing? In a system like the Rays’, Chirinos is seen as competing for a starting position, not a back-up. Archer and Guyer go into spring training with legitimate chances to make the team, not sit behind the likes of Carlos Silva, Marlon Byrd, or Koske Fukudome. And Lee will be given every opportunity to develop and eventually make the majors. In some respects, I’m happy that these players will get the opportunity with an organization that respects them. I just wish it was the Cubs.

          If you want more evidence on how the Cubs beat down and disrespect their minor leaguers, read Tony Hall’s post on Matt Murton.

          • paul catanese

            Amen.

  • Tony_Hall

    MLB Network take on the trade.

    They like Garza for the Cubs. They say this looks like a desperate GM, fighting for his job. That they won’t win this year, in the NL Central, and JH is gonna leave a bare cupboard for the next GM.

  • Tony_Hall

    From MLB Network

    Cubs win this deal – This year

    Rays wins this deal in 2 years.

  • Chuck

    We tend to blame JH if this was a good or bad trade. I have yet to see anyone mention Greg Maddux. If “Mad Dog” is a special assistant, I am sure that he had some imput to JH about this trade. He was able to compare Garza with Archer.

    • Tony_Hall

      I agree Maddux gave input on Garza and Archer, But this deal also included, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos and I guess Fuld. JH is trying to win this year, again.

  • cubsklm

    Dust off my catcher’s mitt! I’m headed to Mesa, AZ. Koyie Hill could make a million! Are you sh@tting me! A 42.9% raise! For what? Yet we had to get rid of Theriot, because he had the gall to go to arbitration and win.

    • Tony_Hall

      I agree, K Hill shouldn’t and hopefully won’t get $1M (I think Castillo should be given every opportunity to be the backup for 400K). But this is not even close to Theriot and the $3M range for a player.

      And Theriot lost his arbitration case, as he should have, he asked for to much.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZHTMAIGK4MF65LJQK54NZL62JI Jim

    Maybe the PTBNL is Davis Price?

    • Tony_Hall

      Can you even imagine, what they would want for a pitcher of that caliber?

  • Tony_Hall
    • Bryan

      Murton was always a guy that you felt could hit well if just played regularly. His defense was a bit suspect (but certainly no worse than our present $18m man in LF). But unfortunately, like Fox, Pie, Hoffpauer and many others, the Cubs approach is to bring “hot” players up, then sit them on the bench in reserve roles, allowing 1-2 at-bats per week, and then wonder why they can’t contribute. Typical. I’m glad he’s gaining success at this stage of his career…well done.

      • Gary J

        Kudos to Murton on his success – always seemed like a good guy. As for the Cubs sitting him… his final season in the bigs he was a AAAA player for Colorado – so can’t blame it all on the Cubs.

        And Tuffy Rhodes was a star in Japan too. And Kosuke was an MVP and won batting titles.

        So success in Japan does not translate to a player that has success in the states.

        Great job though Matt – I always like to see a former Cub make good.

        • The Maven

          As the saying goes, timing is everything. Confidence plays such a big part in a payer’s develpment and success. When a player is brought up from the minors and how much he plays is almost more important than his success when he plays. Murton’s time was when he was with the Cubs. With the way he was brow-beaten by Cubs’ management, it’s easy to see how he lost his confidence. I’m glad to see that he has regained it. I just wish it was for the Cubs.

          Like I said in previous posts, Soriano should be sending a check to Murton every year of his contract. It was Soriano’s inability to play center field that eventually benched Murton, not Murton’s productivity.

  • JesseMatthew
  • The Maven

    In other news, a reflection on the passing of Ryne Duren. Duren was a Yankees pitcher who was the person Ryne Sandberg was named after. He was also the inspiration for the famos “hit the mascot” scene in the movie Bull Burham.

    Sporting a 100 mph fastball, a reputation for wildness, and thick, goggle-like glasses, Duren would pause before throwing his last warm-up pitch. He would squint and perr in at his catcher, then throw a heater half way up the backstop. “Okay now, batter up!” Classic!

    • paul catanese

      I remember that when he warmed up,youre right,classic.

  • Tony_Hall

    Our pitching staff, as of now.

    Rotation
    1) Dempster (most likely Quade will not go with Z, on opening day)
    2) Zambrano
    3) Garza
    4) Cashner
    5) Wells

    Gorzellany will be traded, with getting Garza and the rumors about Gorzellany, you can figure out that he is the odd man out.

    Bullpen
    1) Marmol
    2) Marshall
    3) Wood
    4) Grabow
    5) Russell
    6) Maine
    7) Samardzija

    – Coleman will go to AAA

    – Silva will be DL’d, traded, or waived or will be given a rotation spot, Cashner, moved to the pen and Maine or Russell to AAA

    I actually like our pitching staff, overall. I think if our offense can put some runs on the board, we will have a pitching staff that can win games. I don’t think it is a dominant pitching staff, and it is 3rd or 4th in the NL Central.

    Z – has to be the good Z
    Dempster – needs to keep doing what he has been
    Garza – Boost in #’s moving to NL
    Cashner – Is the key, if he can be effective it will be huge for this rotation. He will be inconsistent as all young starters seem to be.
    Wells – Here’s hoping he wins 15 :) as our 5th starter.

  • Tony_Hall

    Our lineup and bench

    1) Dewitt/Baker 2B
    2) Castro SS
    3) ARam 3B
    4) Pena 1B
    5) Byrd CF
    6) Colvin RF
    7) Soriano LF
    8) Soto C

    Leadoff – we don’t have one, the platoon of Dewitt/Baker, may offer the best OBP of the real options. Huge hole in this lineup

    Castro – I don’t see a huge sophmore slump. I expect his numbers to be below 2010, but not by much. He has shown an ability to make adjustments and has a very quick swing. He is fun to watch

    ARam – He is our best bat and needs to be 3rd. Let’s hope he is healthy and motivated and doesn’t start like last year. Ah, what $14.6M used to get you.

    Pena was brought in to be the power bat, lets hope (once again) that he can produce the power to bat 4th.

    Byrd – Need a RH bat to split the lefties.

    Colvin – Hopefully his power numbers will continue. His average and K’s are a concern, but so are Pena’s and Soriano’s.

    Soriano – I like him in the 7 hole
    Soto – Soriano can’t bat 8th, Soto has patience at the plate, and if he can stay healthy, is a very nice bat batting 8th. If healthy and productive, could move up to 5th to the bat between Pena and Colvin.

    Bench
    K Fukudome 4th OF
    D Barney IF
    F Perez 5th OF (If healthy, he is on the roster)
    K HIll Backup C (lets hope Castillo shows he can fill this role, for 414K

    The offense is the weak point and needs to produce more than this, basically same group has done in the past. Hopefully it will get a reinforcement or 2, like last year (Colvin/Castro), I hope for Brett Jackson by sometime in June.

  • BBmind

    I find it hard to believe JH just traded the future for a #2 guy, I guess it’s history now and we have to live with it. On a different note, why isn’t anyone talking about a M Young / Soriano swap ? Young can play 2nd base for us and move over to third next year when ramirez is gone while Soriano goes to Texas to DH… That’s something I would explore if I were JH

    • http://chicagocubsonline.com/ Neil

      Soriano’s contract is unmovable … sorry

  • Tom U

    In further explanation in the equity of the trade, I offer this link to the Tamp Bay Rays’ top 10 prospects.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2011/2610903.html

    It seems that opinions agree about the Fuld for Perez aspect and and the Garza for Archer and Guyer aspect. So where does that leave HAk-Jo Lee and Robinson Chirinos?

    If Chirinos can be seen as “sweetener”, the sugar that gets the deal done, then you have to start at the Rays’ #4 prospect when looking at equity. Their #4 prospect, Jake McGee is a 23 year old left handed pitcher. McGee has pitched 7 years in their system and has barely pitched above AAA ball. He has an overall losing record and a 3.45 career ERA. Alexander Torres, the #6 prospect, can actually be considered more desireble. The report also gives 20 year old shortstop Tim Beckham the award for best infield arm. These would be starting points in looking at making an equitable deal. Any player less than these would tip the balance in favor of the Rays.

    • daverj

      Tom,

      I just don’t see how Archer and Guyer are even close to being enough for Garza. If everything works out for Archer, best case scenario is that he turns into a Garza like pitcher. Archer is far from a “can’t miss” pitching prospect. He’s probably somewhere in the range of the top 40-70 prospects in baseball … we’re not talking about a top 20 guy here. Baseball American had Garza at #21 overall before he was brought up.

      McGee is a Top 100 prospect. H Lee is not. Chirinos likely isn’t even in the top 200. Doesn’t seem equitable for us to get McGee, Beckham or Torres. The PTBNL is going to be a marginal prospect.

      At the end of the day though, the truth is that none of us will know whether this is a good deal or not for the Cubs for at least three years.

      • Tom U

        The fact that Garza is under .500 in his major league career and that he wasn’t even the best pitcher on his team (David Price was) is evidence that expecting a teams #1 and #10 prospect isn’t out of line. If the Rays wanted major league talent in return, I’m sure the Cubs or other teams would have accomidated them. They were looking for prospects, and they received two of the teams top 10. What Garza rated as a prospect 5 years ago is irrelevent.

        As for McGee being a top 100 prospect, his production and age make that debatable. This is why Torres, Joseph Cruz, or Beckham are a good starting point. One of these players would be equitable for another team’s #4 overall prospect and and player who will most likely make your major league roster. I’m not sure as to whether you’re skeptical over what the Cubs will get or my analysis. I’m simply trying to speculate as to what player will end up making this trade equitable. Whether the Cubs are able to make that kind of deal, we’ll just have to wait and see. Remember, bad trades are a part of baseball.

  • Bryan

    I truly hope Garza becomes a solid addition. However, I would have just brought up Lee (contrary to readiness assessments here) and Jackson, and seen our middle infield of Castro, Lee and Jackson to see what the future has in store for the franchise.

    And one things for sure…we seem to have a hands-off owner who will allow his GM to make additional questionable (and debatable) decisions. Someday this franchise will put all the management pieces in place, and start acting like a bona-fide, professionally run organization.

    • paulcatanese

      Absolutlely on track,I could not agree more.

  • Trevor_P

    Had to change my username from Trevor to this but no big deal, and a big thanks to Neil for the help.

    I hate this deal for a lot of reasons, most of which have been stated by other posters already. I have been really excited about Hak-ju Lee since I first heard about him a couple years ago. Now he is not MLB ready this year, but that isn’t a bad thing. The Cubs have no shot at winning anything this year, but in a couple years they could be improving, and Lee would have had a shot to make an impact on that improving team then.

    The main reason I dislike the move is that it does not change anything. Sure we might win a few more games, but not enough to challenge for the division or Wild Card. And we gave up a boatload of prospects to accomplish that. Not all prospects turn into All-Stars, but 0% of the prospects you trade away will either, (well at least not for your team!)

    Also, not saying Garza is bad by any means, but once again Hendry signed a guy coming off a career year..I expect him to be good, but Jimbo sure knows how to buy at the peak of a player’s bargaining power rather than catching them on the way up.

    One last thing, the Cubs had a golden opportunity to stick with their new pledge to build from within and rebuild the team the right way. Let the young guys play, keep stocking the farm system, and wait for contracts to start falling off the books. They could have started a smart baseball strategy to have a home grown core, and THEN had the money/prospects in a few year to go after the “impact” headliner that might put them over the top.

    To quote the award winning “Super Troopers”, “Desperation is a stinky cologne.”

    • Sberlant

      prospects are just that…prospecs. How did patterson do? pie? where is Josh Vitters? 2 years old nobody wanted the Cubs to trade Vitters..now the cubs can’t trade Vitters because he hasn’t devolped. We have no idea what Hak Jak-LU is going to become. Maybe he will be good in 2-3 years or maybe he wont. Maybe 2-3 years from now there will be another prospect we fall in love with.

      The other thing is we still have prospects in the system..Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Carpenter, Jay Jackson…we will draft 70 more players in June. How many prospects work out? People hated the DeRosa deal, but didnt we get Archer..now we don’t want to trade Archer..stop being hypocritical.

      Finally as for Garza coming off a career year..this dude is 27, not 35. He makes less than $4M a year, so he isnt hurting our future. We want to build from within, sometimes you use your farm system for guys to help you for the future. We used our system to get Aramis, that worked out. Garza can be a top 2 starter for the next 5-8 years and who is to say he can’t continue to develop. This guy won 15 games and had a 3.9ERA in the AL EAST..most guys go from the AL EAST to the NL and get better..see Chris Carpenter and Ted Lilly as perfect examples. People say Garza is a fly ball pitcher, well wasnt Lilly? How did that work out? Doesn’t the wind blow in more than it blows out?

      Lets all relax here..it wasnt like we traded Albert Pujols..we traded a bunch of above average prospects, but none of them were can’t miss and even if they were can’t miss..we have all seen prospects miss.

      • Trevor_P

        I have no problem trading prospects, but it depends on the timing. If the exact trade happened when the Cubs were on the verge of contending, I would enthusiastically applaud it. But it makes little sense to trade away this much talent when the end result doesn’t change for the Cubs. I’m interested in contending for championships, not just moving from 5th to 3rd. And the Cubs are more than one good pitcher away from contending. If Hendry traded away prospects to fill multiple holes, (leadoff, 2nd base, etc), then I can see it. Again, I’m not inseparably tied to prospects, but I see no reason to trade a bunch away in a move that does not address the glaring problem on offense we have and does not in any way make us contenders.

        I’m not rooting against Garza, I hope he does become our ace, and maybe he will. But even as our ace, that doesn’t make us win the central unless those other holes get addressed.

        The point about Garza coming off a career year isn’t that he will regress or that he might not get better. It is that Hendry has a tendency to sign guys coming off of career years. Clearly, when someone has a career year, you are going to have to give up a lot, and sometimes way more than you should.

        • Ryanemery8

          I see your point on the timing aspect but what i think what people are missing is that the idea is that matt garza will be pitching for us for at least 3 years. That includes 2012, when they have all this money to go out and beef up this roster. That gives hendry, given he is still here, one less hole to fill. Everyone is waiting for the 2012 year, saying this is when we start to contend. Me personally like matt garza on the cubs for 2012 if we add the pieces expected in the 2011 offseason

      • Tony_Hall

        He made less than $4M last year. He is 2nd year arbitration eligible and will get $6-$8M for 2011

  • paul catanese

    At this point it seems that there is no competition for Hill at backup catcher.I would hope he is attending Camp Colvin (whatever that is) to try and improve his skills. He has to be aware that he is not well liked(as a player only) and needs to upgrade his game to be of ANY value to this team. Chirinos would have taken his place easily this year. Then again who knows under present leadership and the fondness for older players and the hope (and thats all it is,a hope) that they will rebound, that is not impossible but improbable.

    • Sberlant

      who cares who the back up catcher is? how many teams have 2 good catchers? Soto is going to be the majority of days and i want my back up to be defensive minded and able to call a good game..which hill can do. Yes he can’t hit, but who cares. Chirnos is an offensive catcher and a backup on this team, who cares that we traded him.

      we dont devolp any of our own talent and we have a fondness for older players…didnt colvin come through the system? castro? soto? marmol? cashner? wells?

      • Sberlant

        Why can’t Garza become a top of the rotation pitcher?

        Most people think Chris Carpenter of the Cards is one of the best in baseball. Look at what he did in Toronto, then look at what he has done with STL. He never had an era below 4.09 in Toronto, never won more than 12 games. He came to STL when he was like 27 (same age as Garza). With STL never had an era higher than 3.46 and has won at least 15 games every year.

        If Garza becomes a 1 or 2, do peple like this trade for the Cubs?

        • Tony_Hall

          Yes, it would make the trade more acceptable if Garza, turns into a bona fide #1, because that is what we paid the Rays for, a bona fide #1.

        • Gary J

          Look at Cliff Lee… heck… look at Nolan Ryan. There are definitely ace pitchers that come up and make an impact right out of the gate. The Freak in SF comes to mind as the latest… but in fantasy baseball (yes it applies here LOL) there are four common pieces of wisdom that have applicability to starting pitching. And if any one that’s a FB player can back me up that’d be great :-) But almost every publication has a page or two outlining at least a couple of these types of players anymore.

          Look at the players that are turning 27 – they’re a candidate for a breakout.

          Watch for the players in contract years.

          For starting pitchers that were hyped out of the minors – look toward year 3 as their coming out.

          Watch for a boost in ERA and WHIP for pitchers moving from the AL to the NL.

          Other than the contract year, Garza is turning 27, shifting leagues, and year 4 as a starter. OK – so that’s a year late LOL His ERA and WHIP slipped overall last year, but he managed 15 wins.

          And from a scouting perspective – I still point to the fact that the pitching coach over there said he had the best stuff on the staff.

          The point of this “wisdom” is that often when a talent moves up through the minors – the reason is simply that they are better than everyone else. A pitcher that gets in trouble just rears back and blows away lesser players.

          But once they get to the bigs, they find that the players are often better than they are and pure stuff will only get them so far.

          The year 3 / age 27 thing doesn’t reflect an increase in raw ability. It reflects a player acquiring wisdom to go with the ability. To learn how to pitch as opposed to throwing.

          In that respect… I still think this kid could be a staff #1

      • Tony_Hall

        Because Soto is injury prone, look at his stats for AB’s and Games. Our backup catcher will play quite a bit.

      • paul catanese

        You have your opinion,I have mine.Hill is virtualy an automatic out when he is in there and he was in for quite a few games. As you know we do not have an offensive ballclub at this point and every out counts.Colvin had a lot of strikeouts and still is not proven(and I like him) Castro the same,one year does not make a star(and I like him) Marmol,great. Cashner could be great, forget Wells at this point,he came apart the second half. If we were to play the prospects and not the re-treads I would be estatic. I don’t have a fondnessfor the older players but I think the Cubs do. You cannot win if you don’t score.

  • daverj

    Wow … the way posters are talking up Archer … JH must have stolen him from Cleveland for DeRosa.

    We essentially dealt DeRosa (who has not been very good since the deal), Lee, Chirinos, and Guyer for Garza and 4 marginal minor leaguers.

    • Tony_Hall

      Archer had not shown much until this year. So, JH didn’t steal anyone, just some prospects, develop at different times.

      • daverj

        Then maybe we’re selling high on Archer now.

        • Tony_Hall

          We will find out over the next few years. I, personally, don’t believe Archer has maxed (what it would take to sell high) and would have loved to keep him, in our system.

  • cc002600

    one reminder to everyone out there worried about the depletion of the farm system after this deal, myself included.

    This next draft coming up in June, we have the 8th pick, which is pretty high. Maybe there is a stud first baseman at the college level out there that we can snare with that pick ? or 3rd baseman. Who knows ?

    But so far I think the cubs drafting has really improved under Wilkin, so I’m optimistic.

    I love Garza and think he has a chance to be a stud, but I wish we could have gotten him w/o giving up HJ Lee. Assuming he develops, those type of players are not easy to find at SS. (i.e good defense, excellent speed, high avg / obp, very athletic, etc) We NEVER seem to have those kind of players.

  • TwentyTwo

    I think what is missed here, whether you like the trade or not, is that since the Cubs have hired Tim Wilken as scouting director, the Cub organization “appears” to have much better talent than ever before…this gets lost in the shuffle, and hope that he remains with the Cubs, and that he keeps drafting to put the Cubs in a position to make these type of deals!

  • Tony_Hall

    Garza’s numbers should improve in the NL Central, he didn’t fare very well against the better lineups…you know the ones you see in the playoffs.

    From Buster Olney

    “Some numbers to keep in mind: Of the 10 highest-scoring teams in the majors last year, four were in the AL East: the Yankees (first), the Red Sox (second), Garza’s Tampa Bay teammates (third), and the Blue Jays (ninth). And now Garza moves out of the AL East and into the NL Central, a division that had one of the top 10 teams in runs in 2010.

    Will Garza probably get better results in the NL Central?

    Pretty good chance.

    He posted an 8.10 ERA against the Yankees last season, in three starts, and his ERA against the Red Sox was 5.14, in seven games.”

  • http://chicagocubsonline.com/ Neil

    Deal for Garza done … Cubs get Garza, OF Fernando Perez and LHP Zachary Rosscup for Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Guyer, Chirinos and Fuld

    • Gary J

      As the PTBNL, Rosscup had some pretty impressive stats in rookie and low A ball last year – WHIP under 1 – sub 3 ERA – great K/BB ratio. Loooooooong way from being in the show – but it’ll be interesting to watch the guy as he moves up the ladder the next couple of years.

      (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rosscu001zac)

      Thanks for the update Neil.