rip,

I'm not sure where this ranking of fielders came from. Castro ranks 13 last year, according to the fangraphs page you provided here. I'm talking about Castro's UZR/150

UZR/150 basically means how many run(s) a fielding player made above or below average fielding players of his position, and adjusted by averaging by the number of defensive outs. By averaging, players are put on the same spectrum of defensive chances. It's an estimate, but better than most other "raw" numbers or sensibility that reviews plays and defense.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

By the way, I recommend you read that paragraph under the title "UZR and Aging."

I'll slice the pie of truth: "[For] most defensive positions, players decline in talent starting in their early to mid-20’s.... he notion that a player learns how to play defense in the major leagues is largely nonsense... his overall defensive value is likely already declining by the time he gets to the majors."

So much about Blake Dewitt and learning 2B and becoming better.

CF: dead last was Melky Cabrara at #51. Glad somebody else signed his hitless hide.

Bryd? #17

Pagan #14

Josh Hamilton? #2

And in RF, you Funko fans can find him at #10, just ahead of Colvin at #34

and Nady, who was rated dead last in MLB at #58.

LF: #42 of 64 is Little Alfonso. Yessiree, Milton Bradley scored worse, folks: #46, and Scotty Pods #45. Johnny Gomes was dead last. ANd to think I wanted to sign that guy last year! I still do!

SS: Castro ranks #29 of 55 ML shortstops.

Our #3 hitter, DeWitt, 2B, is rated as #43 of 60 2B in all of MLB for fielding prowess. Let's compare that to Theriot:

who is #42! LOL

Fontenot is #46.

Interestingly, K.Hill and G. Soto are rated #31 & #32, respectively, in MLB for their defensive prowess.

I always figured that Jason Kendall was the worst catcher in MLB, but I find to my surprise that he ranks #54 of the 58 catchers who caught at least 500 innings in 2010. Seattle's Rob Johnson won the honors for being the worst defensive catcher in all of MLB in 2010. To add insult to injury, he hit .191 with 2 HR and 13 RBI in 209 PA. Gag!

Now you know why Jim Clueless protected K. Hill. He was afraid the Mariners would pick him up to go along with Milton Bradley.

John DeWann and Bill James work pretty hard on rating defensive plays/players.

Looking at first base, (where Cubs' fans thought Adam Dunn was a man with a giant piece of cement attached to his right hand), I find that he is not the worst fielding 1B in MLB. Surprisingly, Dunn is much better than Paul Konerko. Konerko is rated as the worst fielding 1B in all of MLB, with a UZR of -13.4.

Dunn is a mere -3.1. (The average ML 1B is rated at 0.0). Derek Lee is rated at 2.1 for 2010, 4th in MLB.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0&season1=2010

Joe Simpson only got 288 AB in 1981 against all types of pitching. Pena is even worse.

You gotta read this article! You just gotta do it!

Here's a quote about Konerko:

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/13673/first-things-first-for-cubs-white-sox

"Konerko's dominance at U.S. Cellular Field in 2010 may have played a role in his decision to stay with the White Sox. He was one of two players to hit .340 or better with 25 home runs at home last season, along with Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Those two were the first to put up those numbers since Matt Holliday hit .376 with 25 home runs at Coors Field in 2007.

Konerko, who is a season-and-a-half away from joining Luke Appling and Nellie Fox as the only players to play in 2,000 games for the White Sox, had one blemish on an otherwise outstanding 2010 season. Konerko ranked last among major league first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved, with -17.

KonerkoIn simplest terms, this means Konerko struggled to turn batted balls and bunts into outs more than any first baseman in the league. Konerko also rated worst in a stat called Revised Zone Rating. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Konerko fielded approximately 65 percent of all ground balls hit into his zone, compared to Daric Barton's league-leading 83 percent."

Think that's great? Here's what he said about one Carlos Pena.

"Pena's issues in 2010 were based on his offensive performance. He's coming off a season in which he hit .196. That is by far the lowest batting average for a player who signed a deal averaging $10 million in the offseason. The next lowest? After the 2007 season, Andruw Jones signed a two-year deal averaging $18.1M with the Dodgers after hitting just .222 that season for the Braves.

Pena's .204 batting average against right-handed pitching last season matched the worst by any left-handed hitter against right-handed pitching in the last 35 seasons (current Braves television analyst Joe Simpson hit .204 for the 1981 Mariners). That represented a significant drop from 2007 and 2008, when he hit .280 or better in each season.

PenaPena averaged 37 home runs and 108 RBI from 2007 to 2009, but had just 28 home runs and 84 RBI in 2010. He goes from Tropicana Field to a ballpark that has historically rewarded left-handed power hitters, Wrigley Field. Tropicana's Park Factor for left-handers from 2008 to 2010 was 92, according to the Bill James 2010 Handbook. Wrigley had a Park Factor of 120, the fifth-friendliest in all of baseball.

While it's not rare for a free agent to receive a one-year contract or a contract that averages at least $10M, it is fairly uncommon for a free agent to receive a contract that is both just a year AND is at least $10M, especially for a position player. Pena is just the fifth non-pitcher to receive a free agent contract of one year that averages at least $10M (15 pitchers have received this type of contract)."

ACES in just the NL

Roy Halladay

Adam Wainwright

Ubaldo Jimemnez

Tim Lincecum

Chris Carpenter

Clayton Kershaw

Matt Cain

Josh Johnson

Johan Santana

Borderline Aces in Just the NL

Roy Oswalt

Tim Hudson

Ryan Dempster

Brett Myers

Cole Hamels

Jonathan Sanchez

Matt Latos

Yovanni Gallardo

Tommy Hanson

Edison Volquez

Johnny Cueto

I would put him in the second group, even in the NL. If you play fantasy baseball, even with all those wins, he was 33rd in Starting Pitchers points, even with 32 starts. He is not an ACE, nor do I think switching to the NL, will make him an ACE. He is very solid #2 pitcher, and on the Cubs staff, could be the #1, but that doesn't make him an ace. Aces are shut down starters. If we had Garza as our #1 and we were facing the Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, we would not have the better starting pitcher, they would, and in some cases, even if they were pitching their #2 starter. If we played Atlanta, Padres, Brewers, Reds, it would be a toss up.

Tony- thanks for listing every 1-2 pitcher in the National League. Garza easily makes the second list and I predict could make the 1st list, in time- the dude is only 27. Pitching in the NL should make him a better pitcher though I agree maybe next year with the Cubbies doesn't quite get him on the 1st list, but maybe he gets there in 2-3 seasons. He has major potential is all I'm saying and he has shown he can pitch well in the majors, so why not give up a top prospect or two for him? Obviously Big Z is no longer the stud he was prior to 2008. It's time for Z to be traded along with Soriano and Fukudome- too bad no team will take them unless we eat most of their contracts.

Not sure what list you are looking at, but that is not every 1-2 pitcher in the NL. Those are just the ACES and the near ACES, regardless of team. Some teams are not represented and teams like the Cubs have only 1 pitcher barely listed.

If you want a list of AL pitchers, who have the POTENTIAL to be ACES in the NL, in the next 2-3 years, that list is between 15-20 pitchers. Shawn Marcum, who just went to the Brewers, has the POTENTIAL, to be an ACE in the NL.

The point is, don't overpay for Garza, and we don't have to have him. He would be great to get, buy this trade wouldn't be for Tim Linceum or Roy Halladay, etc, real ACES.

I was referring to the 2 lists you put together and I realize it is not a comprehensive list. I agree that Garza fits in more with list #2 right now, but I believe he has the talent to make it on the 1st list in 1-2 years in the NL- I may be wrong, but I believe he is that talented. Not sure why you don't value Garza as a stud who would easily be the Cubs #1 in 2011. Obviously he is not an ace like Lincecum or Halladay, but he is closer to Matt Cain or Clayton Kershaw. We have no guarantees that our prospects will pan out (remember Corey and Eric Patterson?) and right now we have an opportunity to get a stud pitcher, that is why I say get him. I am not saying trade any or all of our top prospects, but 1 or 2, yes. Cubs have already said they are not trading Brett Jackson or Chris Archer. We already know Colvin, Cashner, Castro, and Vitters would likely not be part of this deal too.

Tony,

Your list of Aces in the NL did not include Zambrano or Dempster. Zambrano is earning $17.875 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012, and $19 million in 2013. Dempster got a $70 million contract from the Cubs. That you left these two off of your list must be an oversight on your part.

LOL

Thanks for catching, my obvious mistake :)

The Rays won a lot of games last year, he will not win more games if he pitches for the Cubs, since they will not win as many games as the Rays did in 2010.

Tony, I must strongly disagree with you that Garza is not a future ace in the NL. He's a 15 game winner going up against the best lineups in baseball and he is only 27. He can easily be the Cubs ace next season and a 17-18 game winner pitching in the NL Central. He has proven himself to be a quality major league player unlike any of our prospects (except Castro- though I don't consider him a prospect any longer). I agree with you that we should not trade ALL of our best prospects for him, but maybe one or two of our top prospects along with other prospects. I highly doubt Hendry and Rickets would trade Castro or Vitters. We should be able to work out an attractive package without having to give up too much since we do have several solid prospects right now- a luxury we have not had for quite some time.

We must get Matt Garza. He is a future ace in the making, especially if he's pitching in the NL. Why not trade prospects for him because this guy has proven he can pitch well in the toughest division in baseball. I just hope this rumor doesn't end up being like the Brian Roberts rumors which we heard so much about 2 years ago. We were "very close" and "the favorites to land" him too...

Hak Ju Lee, Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, and DJ Lemahieu for Matt Garza.

Do you like that idea?

How about Josh Vitters, Chris CArpenter, Chris ARcher, Starlin CAstro?

We must not get Garza at any cost. I also don't view him as a future ace. A solid #2, yes.

Does anyone have ESPN insider? There is a rumor that posted there at 3:30 today that says Garza to Cubs likely? If there is any truth to this rumor I do love it... but it scares the living crap out of me that JH will send Hak-Ju Lee to them... i've defended some of the moves JH has made in the past, but if he sends Hak-Ju Lee (in a package of other prospects) to the Rays for just Garza I am not sure I can defend him anymore...

Now I know Lee could be a huge bust... but as it stands now it looks like him and Castro can be mainstays up the middle for many years to come... Please Hendry, don't make a horrible mistake... PLEASE!!!

UPDATE: Garza is likely to be dealt soon, according to Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse, and it appears as if the Chicago Cubs are the most likely destination.

It's unclear what exactly the Cubs would be sending to Tampa in return for the right-hander, but some of the top regarded prospects in the Cubs' farm system include outfielder Brett Jackson, infielder Josh Vitters, right-hander Jay Jackson, right-handed reliever Chris Carpenter and shortstop Lee Hak-Ju. Young right-hander Andre Cashner could also be part of such a trade.

...

The Tampa Bay Rays were preparing themselves for the body blow, but it still had to hurt when Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena officially left the Gulf Coast this week via free agency.

A deal to send shortstop Jason Bartlett could be completed Friday while speculation is building that righthander Matt Garza could be dealt as well.

Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune reported Wednesday that the Rangers and Brewers have shown interest in Garza, and Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports that the Cubs and a fourth club are in on the right-hander, too.

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune tweets that the Brewers are "rekindling talks" regarding Garza, and that the Brewers may be willing to include center field prospect Lorenzo Cain.

Garza is arbitration eligible this winter after making $3.35 million in 2010, but he is under club control for two more seasons.

- Doug Mittler

Thanks! I guess we will see, I repeat again, I am really scared that Tampa Bay is going to completely take advantage of us... maybe I am wrong, and I hope I am.

Rich Hill had an amazing 2007 for the Cubs.

Rich Hill is a Red Sox http://soxblog.projo.com/2010/12/with-rule-5-dra.html

This is about baseball and the Cubs.

Aaron, stick to baseball, that is why we read this blog. Please keep your political views out of here! There is enough of that everywhere else, and it is one of the reasons I chose to read this blog. Arguing the merits of players and trades etc, disagreements over baseball things with knowledgeable baseball fans that I don't know from Adam is fun and good.

Political hatchet jobs, little pokes ("activist teachers") and big philosophical arguments with anonymous people I do not know is NOT fun. Not at all. It is, in my opinion, one of the biggest problems with our society today.

Stop now, please.

I apologize for that...as mentioned, it was annoying to hear that type of response from him, so, like I said, I responded, noting that we should keep it to baseball.

I should NOT have responded to the "teacher" comment, but I took, unfortunately the "low road" instead of the high road with that one.

My apologies, and I agree, there's far too much of it in society

No problem. I get fired up really easily too and that is why I don't want to go down that road, not here. There are times and places for good political debate, but anonymous blogging is not one of them.

Let's Carry on!

According to this guy the Garza talks are still going. I thought Maddon shot tehm down.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/09/source-the-rays-and-cubs-are-talking-about-a-matt-garza-trade/related/

As Neil stated, Maddon has to deny the report, as they still have Garza. It is also a negotiation tactic to deny a player is going anywhere. 75% of what is "leaked" and reported is on purpose, to see reaction and to talk to the other sides indirectly. Of course, if everything was kept private, we wouldn't have anything to talk about until its done.

Maddon has to shoot them down. From everything I'm hearing the two teams are talking and will continue to discuss a deal even with the meetings being over.

One view I heard today is that the Rays could wait to move Garza until after Cliff Lee is signed and after Zach Greinke is traded.

The Cubs are not the only team talking to the Rays about Garza.

You guys are like the little kids that I teach.

Doubtful......kids nowadays are zombies, taught mostly by activist teachers....you might or might not be one

Remember Aaron that Carlos Pena is on a 1 year deal so I highly doubt it will go down as one of the worst deals ever. He has potential to rebound and as long as he doesn't regress further he will still be a positive addition to the team, his $5mil deferred helps us potentially add another impact player this year. If we did not have a good glove at 1B then I also think that Starlin Castro could play his way out of the majors, way too many errors. Pena will save a lot of errors the same as DLee did/would have done. His 1 year deal also allows the Cubs to be players in the bigger 1B free agency next year. If the Cards don't manage to sign Pujols to an extention wouldn't he look great in Cubbie Blue? I feel this team is a move or two away from being very competitive next year. Also Aaron did you just slip in Luke Scott on that list somewhere in the middle of one of your long winded rants? I have a feeling is more close minded and crazy than an actual good MLB player. Didn't he make a comment about Hawaii not being in the union, on Pearl Harbor anniversary?

What I was referring to as far as Castro is that if we had someone who was a poor fielding 1B who couldn't pick balls and save errors that Castro's errors could rise to something ridiculous in the area of 30plus. I'm a believer in Castro but he has a long ways to go before he's a proven player. The Cubs held him out of the last game so he could hit 300 and help his psyche. The facts are he makes too many errors right now and his offense is strong enough to offset that at this point. But he is very young and obviously we all hope that he will improve in all areas of the game.

Please tell me how $10 million for a .196 avg is a good idea (and don't give me the BS about it being "only" $5 million this season, because essentially he signed him for a 2 yr $10 million deal without having him play in yr 2 which, again, makes it a $10 million deal for one year of service.

Scott is known as one of the best teammates in the game, just FYI, and Pie and Adam Jones both credited him with helping their development and keeping them on the right path.

I'd like to see his quote about Hawaii...that's news to me....but I know what you are trying to get at and I also know your political persuasion now....he's a conservative guy....you aren't.....get over it. Just because his ideology doesn't match with yours, doesn't make hime a bad guy.

Do you also dislike Berkman? How about Curt Schilling or Randy Johnson? They were both conservative guys. Thing is, they were widely respected guys in the game, had great success, and were known as great teammates.

Plenty of pro athletes and movie stars ripped on ou previous president. Since when is it fine to do that, but you can't rip on a liberal one. That type of contradiction is whaty has ruined this country....

Sorry to respond to your attempt at making this about something other than baseball....it just annoyed me, and I'm sure my libertarian views annoy you too, but I'm also not calling out a player because his politics differ from mine

Actually I found it odd you would include him after I saw him with quotes for the first ever. He's not a difference making player on the field unlike every other player you mentioned and that's why I made a comment. But back to Pena, last year was his worst in 4 years. His BAABIP is surely to turn around which will hopefully raise his average, on base and OPS. His power numbers should go up playing in wrigley and out of the AL East. He's a couple of years removed from a gold glove. He's been in a pennant race for 3 straight years and was club house leader and a key part of turning around a losing stigma in TB. The fact that the Cubs are only on the hook for a 1 year commitment means that we don't have to worry about a physical decline that usually happens around age 35. Also a 1 year contract means there is potential for "walk year" numbers out of him. His contract this year was just over 10 Million so he likely wasn't going to end up taking much less. And while he is being paid $10 Million over 2 years the deferred $5 helps us add a potential difference making SP, RP and/or hitter this year. With some contracts coming of the books next year it will be easier to hide the other $5 mil. I guess what I'm getting at is give the Cubs a chance they appear to be moving in the right direction. There's always a chance that the players play how they are capable of and they actually win more games than they lose. Don't you just think that our "curse" should end in a year they aren't expected to make any noise? That's what nearly happened in '03.

Luke Scott would've been a great option for us via trade. He's hit 23+hr, 65+RBI in each of the last 3 seasons, and narrowly missed 4 straight 4 years ago when he had 18 hr, 64 RBI. He's a great teammate supposedly, and pretty consistent with his average and OBP. Is he a superstar? Not in your life...but he's a solid player you can count on. I guess my point is, that between a Marlon Byrd, or Luke Scott, I'm picking Scott, because he can also play 1B, and is a power lefty bat we've been seeking.

Onto Pena...

It speaks volumes when Hendry comes out and states that he is not taking a risk by signing Pena, due to his power numbers in the past. The question was posed about his sub .200 average, and Hendry starts talking about power numbers.

Clearly, Hendry is out of his league nowadays when it comes to managing a Major League roster. He's just not equipped to handle it. Last year he came out with the excuse that he's not a big sabermetrics guy, and relies on old school ways of scouting.

But perhaps his most egregious error in the Pena signing is that somehow, he thinks that switching over to the NL will actually improve his stats. First off, his RBI total will take a pretty good hit. So that 84 RBI he amassed last year will likely be around 65-70-ish. It's really pretty simple...in the NL, you have less opportunities to drive guys in with the pitcher batting. Rallies are killed that way, and there is more small ball being played, such as bunting, which increases the outs in any given inning, and thus, you have even less opportunities to drive in runs. This is why I believe Dunn, who averages about 40 hr, 100 RBI, will have about 50 hr, 120 RBI. And while he hasn't even come close to those totals really, in the AL, he'll be given far more opportunities to do so.

Marlon Byrd had 20 hr, 89 RBI the year prior to coming to the NL. He had 12 hr, 66 RBI last year upon his return to the NL. When he first came up with the Phillies, the best he could muster in the NL was 7 hr, 45 RBI in full-time duty (though he did hit .303 avg that year in 135 games).

So, all I'm saying, is it's an absolute joke to think our GM truly believes Pena will have a resurgent season, when everything is stacked against that happening.

I will concede your point though....if we are to win it all, it will likely be a situation like this year, where absolutely nobody expects us to contend, then Hendry will have to make another surprise move in July, and land us a true lead-off hitter (provided we haven't brought up Hak-Ju Lee or Brett Jackson by that point), and at least another top-end starter like a Garza or Greinke type of starter (just thinking of guys that are available just FYI)

And, at that point, if Pena tanks, as I suspect, we'll also have to land a 1B at that time, just as we landed Lofton and ARAM back in 2003 (notice that it was hitting that year with Lofton, ARAM, Randall Simon, etc., that pushed us over the top, and NOT pitching acquisitions), and that's going to have to be the case this year too if we make it. I think the top target would likely be Prince Fielder, as he's a FA next year, and the Brewers don't seem inclined to pay up for him.

The difference between this year and 2003... the big 4 in the starting rotation... Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Clement... but really the biggest difference was an electric Prior (staff ace that year) a K machine in Wood and a young power pitcher in Zambrano... we don't have that anymore.

Castro could play his way out of the majors, without a good glove at 1B...How many shortstops would have more errors, without a good glove at 1B? All of them. Castro is not going back to the minors, regardless of who is at 1B, unless his bat requires the time, which I highly doubt as well.

Neil....couple things I read about:

1) Supposedly the Rays are amused by the Garza rumors, and have absolutely no desire to trade him this offseason, and even if they did, it'd take 3 top prospects, and Chirinos is not considered a top prospect. I think Cubbie goggles got the best of a lot of fans with this rumor supposedly centered around Chirinos, which is absolutely laughable

2)I thought the Cubs should've looked to trade Byrd and Soto while their value is still high. I thought the Cubs would've been better served having a catcher like W. Castillo or Chirinos that can stop a running game, and still provide a decent level of offense, but now we have an injured Soto we don't even know if he'll be healthy, and we don't even know if he'll be in shape either. Furthermore, it appears we've lost out on 2 very young and capable replacements for Byrd in Franceour and M. Cabrera to the Royals

3)I was a bit disappointed to see Brad Eamus get selected by someone else in the Rule 5. I thought he'd be an upgrade over DeWitt at 2B

4)one year, $10 million for a guy that just hit .196 avg, .325 OBP, .407 SLG....I don't care if he hit 28 hr, 84 RBI...he still also struck out 158 times and had only 95 hits. This deal is absolutely disgusting, and Hendry, once again, backed himself into a corner where the player and agent knew they could abuse him, and get higher than market value because he was desperate. Had he dealt for Chris Davis, and even signed Chris Carter of the Mets, yet another 1B option, he would've been in a far better position to negotiate. EVERYONE that I've seen in baseball, outside of the "yes woman" Carrie Muskat, has said this deal for Pena is pretty despicable and will end up being disastrous for the Cubs.

Also, please remember that free agents also struggle in their first year with the Cubs because of day games. Isn't that pretty true?!? Then, immediately after signing, we hear Pena saying that he couldn't believe it happened, then he goes and makes a ridiculous statement about how, because the Cubs are giving him that much money, it will make him work even harder next year. Ummmmmmmmm, Carlos....Didn't you make the same exact money last year too? How'd that season work out for you? Then.....he doesn't shut up there...He goes and says that he's not a morning person.

Way to go Hendry...In a season you desperately need offense, you just signed a guy that isn't a morning person when you play mostly day games, was coming off a year in which he couldn't even get 100 hits, was hitting below the Mendoza Line (a line in which most people find themselves out of MLB entirely), AND a guy that was genuinely shocked to even receive that much money. LOL...How is Hendry still a GM?!?? What compromising photos does he have in his office that allows him to keep his position?

Neil, I also mentioned on here the plus/minus effect on switching leagues. When pitchers switch from the AL to NL, they usually find themselves earning a big payday, whereas hitters usually find themselves non-tendered, or making a good amount less upon the switch. But if the reverse happens, usually pitchers switching from NL to AL experience quite the rise in ERA, and hitters usually experience a resurgent season.

Recent examples of hitters regressing on their NL stints include:

Teixeira with his brief stint with the Braves

Melky Cabrera with the Braves

Manny Ramirez with the Dodgers

On the flip side, when guys like Teixeira, Franceour, Konerko (didn't have full-time gigs with the Dodgers and Reds, but looked like he'd be out of baseball, prior to his trade to the White Sox), etc. There's plenty of hitters that struggled putting up numbers in the NL, then went onto better things in the AL, and there's FAR fewer guys that did the reverse. Why? Because you simply get more opportunities to drive in runs, etc. in the AL when they utilize the DH which extends innings, versus the NL, where you almost always have an automatic out every 9 outs when the pitcher is due up, thus limiting your opportunities to drive in runs.

An EXCELLENT recent example of this would be none other than our Marlon Byrd signing, where he put up 20 hr, 89 RBI the year before in Texas, then hit 12 hr, 66 RBI (even with about 30 more plate appearances with the Cubs, and he still couldn't equal that).

This is why I wouldn't be shocked in the least to find Carlos Pena hitting about .166 avg, .295 OBP, .385 SLG, 15 hr, 55 RBI next year.

It's also why I wouldn't be shocked if Adam Dunn hit .275 avg, .420 OBP, 50 hr, 120 RBI with the White Sox next year. And it's NOT like I think he would've done that for the Cubs, but because he's switching to a more offensive oriented league.

Do you know what's so concerning about Pena though? It's that in each of the last 4 seasons, his average and OBP have each dropped about 30 points per year with a high starting at .282 avg and .411 OBP, and culminating with a dreadful .196 avg, .325 OBP last year. Usually when there is a trend like that, there's no way around it. You can't all of a sudden say a player will reverse course, when in each of the last 4 seasons, those numbers have plummeted almost 30 points per season. It's trending downward, NOT upward.

Sure, Rudy might be able to work some magic with him, but at 33 years old next year, if Bill James is correct (and I believe he is), the numbers will only get worse, and it coaching won't even have an impact at all. It's all age related decline at this point. So, not only were you factoring in a normal decline from eroding talent, but now, you must factor in an age-related decline....next year will likely be one of the ugliest full-time seasons we've ever seen out of a player with that large of a salary.....yes, and I even mean all of the large salaries in the game with underperforming players like Wells, Bradley, Soriano, etc. Pena's contract will likely go under the worst in MLB history....I sure hope I'm wrong....but in a way I hope I'm right, because if I am right, the Cubs will be left with no other choice but to play him, and try to get their money's worth out of him (they won't), and there's absolutely no way Ricketts can turn a blind eye to what Hendry is doing anymore, and will be forced to fire him, thus ridding us of the worst GM in the game right now (dollar for dollar).

As with all of my predictions, I hope I'm wrong. I really do. I hope I get to eat a giant plate full of crow, but it's not likely. Again, it's not hard to predict the Cubs. All you have to do is look at stats, and trends within the organization to telegraph their moves.

I hope they sign Chris Carter or trade for Chris Davis, otherwise we'll be in this same mess a year from now.

I hope they sign Kerry Wood, and bring him back home, and yet, for the sake of Kerry, because I really like the guy, I hope he stays in New York, where he has a much better chance to get a ring, especially since the Rays look like they're starting over and the Red Sox are their only competition right now it seems.

It's like, I love guys like Cliff Lee, DeRosa, Wood, Luke Scott, Konerko, Buehrle, etc., and yet you almost don't want them to come to the Cubs, especially if they haven't won a championship yet, because as long as Hendry is around, we'll never see one....and you want those guys to taste it before they retire. DeRosa, Konerko, and Buehrle have already done so....It's kind of the same deal with Sandberg....and you have to keep in mind, that when I was younger, I was not nearly as jaded as I am now with the Cubs, but I can remember feeling the same way years ago regarding Sandberg, where I almost wished he'd sign a FA deal with a winner. Same thing for Dawson, and even Grace (who eventually got his chance with the D'Backs, and is the only Cubs legend I can think of in the last 60 years or more to do so...I could be wrong....and I'm talking Cubs "legend"...NOT guys like DeRosa who play 2-3 years in town before they get a ring...I'm talking guys like Grace who put in 10 years or more with the Cubs and who were stars with the Cubs). But I can remember thinking at the time, after looking at our lineup, versus other team's lineups or rotations, and I'd think, "we can do this" (even though in the back of my mind, I knew it wasn't true, and that I was just being a typical Cubs optimist), and the more I think about it in retrospect, I think the players even knew that they were so overmatched, that outside of 1984 and 1989, they probably felt there was no way they could compete around the league...and so it was incredibly painful watching Sandberg, Dawson, Dunston, and Grace, giving their hearts for an organization that wasn't really committed to winning.

I hope and pray that Sandberg gets a ring with the Phillies....or some other organization. Dawson already has a ring with the Marlins organization, I believe, so it'd only be fitting. Maddux already has one with the Braves....funny, isn't it?!?

Aaron, Levine never said the trade could center around Robinson Chirinos but said the Rays would want him in the trade.

Remember man, these are rumors, and if every rumor happened, the Cubs would have several different players on their roster, and in their system right now.

I guess you're right...I was inferring that, because he's the only name I read about, so I figured it must be centered around him. The trade for Garza was already shot down by the Rays, and I think it's safe to say that if there's a good player out there available via trade, the Cubs will NOT land him, no matter what, and that's based on recent history with trade rumors and Jim Hendry. The last major trade we made, landed us an oft-injured Rich Harden, who was good at the time, but had significant injury questions. Prior to that, it was Garciapparra, and prior to that, it was Lee, and prior to that, it was ARAM and Lofton (who was actually the centerpiece of the trade, and NOT ARAM, as most people think)

But that's it...there's not a single above average MLB talent we've traded for since Rich Harden, and that is precisely how I know that ANY good player we're connected to via trade, is just not gonna happen. From Garza to Greinke to AGON to Peavy (prior) to Roberts (prior) to Santana (prior) to Sabathia (prior to getting Harden), to AROD (remember that one, when we first got Lou?) and so on....Any trade rumor you can think of, involving above average MLB talent, you can forget about us being in on it.

HOWEVER, any FA acquisition involving a player coming off a career year (while otherwise being inconsistent), or a player coming off injury and the downside of his career, you can almost bank on us being involved in a major way.

Again, this all goes back to Hendry's personality and his past, and the type of player he likes to target. Harden was coming off injury questions, Garciapparra was injured as well and a malcontent with Boston, Bradley had injury concerns and was coming off a career year, Byrd was signed off a career year, DeRosa was signed off a career year (perhaps the only FA signing like this that worked out in our favor), Lee was re-signed after a career year, Dempster was signed off the injury scrap heap and re-signed after a career year, Burnitz was signed off a career year, etc.

And I'm not taking each rumor seriously either...I guess I'm just being cynical about the rumors, because I think they're all hilarious given Hendry's history.

I understand your frustration, I think every Cub fan in the world understands your frustration, but jeez, way to be a Debbie Downer...

Nobody knew Casey McGehee would be this good. So to anybody that did, stop lying to yourself and everybody on here. He was 26 when he was cut, which is pretty old for a career minor leaguer. Enough of this crap

If you look at McGehee's minor league numbers, they were pretty consistent. He usually hit around .280 with double digit HR's and around 60 RBI's and 10 errors. If anyone should have known he would be this good, it would be the supposed professional evaluators in the Cubs organization.

As for Marquez Smith, his numbers aren't as consistent. He is roughly the same age as McGehee was when he was in the Cubs' system. This past season was the first time he hit over .300. He hasn't driven in 60 runs at any level. His errors and fielding percentage are much worse than McGehee's at this point in their development.

I feel that he is a AAAA player. The Cubs were justified in not protecting him and pursuing other back-up third base options.

Please read Aaron's repsonse above. It was that anyone thought Mcgahee would be a super star (he isn't), it's that JH didn't have an adequate AAAA (thought at the time) player at AAA to fill in for ARam, after he trade Derosa. It's the thought process that is the problem

Hendry got flamed on this blog for not protecting Marquez Smith, but apparently he knew what he was doing. Smith never appeared on any prospect lists and frankly was never that good, other than 300 AAA at-bats last year. He has always been too old for his level.

My lord, was that a big contract for Crawford; $142 mil for a player with a .781 career ops, and can only play LF! Another example of GMs overpaying for Speed.

Hendry was blasted on here, not because anyone thought Marquez Smith would be a star MLB player, or even an above average one in all likelihood, but because a lot of people thought it was Casey McGehee all over again. Why?

Because when that happened, Hendry was already orchestrating the DeRosa trade (had not consummated it yet, but was working on it). If DeRosa was traded, that left us with NO true 3B back-up to ARAM that was MLB ready.

Flash forward to this season. We already know now that ARAM is prone to injuries, and when our only back-up is the weak hitting Baker, whom everyone thought was destined to be non-tendered, then something is wrong. Marquez Smith, while not an outstanding talent, is a very good solution for us in the event ARAM goes down. I would NOT rely on Baker, and if you go with Barney, you've already conceded the season. You need a bona-fide power threat, and Marquez Smith at least has above average power, and is the closest to MLB ready for us. Yes, we still would've had Vitters and Flaherty, etc., but neither is even close to MLB ready at this point.

That, my friend, is why people were up in arms over him not being protected

Aaron is 100% on the money (again):

sorry rip/aaron-100% wrong on this.......

first, not every rule 5 player will be a casey mcgehee becuz if we assume that: then every player JH signs off injury becomes a ryan dempster-i.e. brandon webb, which hopefully won't happen.

second, marquez smith has 300 ABs in AAA-that's it. baker is a lifetime .270 MLB hitter so another HUGE assumption here that smith will be better than baker; yet 31 teams passed on him.

yes, letting mcgehee go and trading dero left 3B vulnerable at the time, but taht was then, not now.

let's not assume every cubs minor leaguer is gonna "rake" at the MLB level.....if so why did we not get AGon and why is there not a Garza press conference this morning??......i don't think baker is the answer(maybe why the Davis rumors persist), but i'll take him over marquez smith.......our next jake fox or micah who is at best a AAAA player.

Baker can't hit righties. That is a HUGE problem, if he is the back-up. He hits lefties well.

Look folks I am all for going young and building the farm system but seriously if I have the opportunity to get a legitimate ACE who is just about to turn 27 there is no questions that I make that deal.

Chirinos, Flaherty, Jay Jackson and a PTBNL is a huge haul for Tampa and lands us a legit 1 or 2 starter which this team desperately needs.

I am slowly and I mean slowly warming to Pena. He says all the right things and I mean that literally! It is not Milty speak or D. Lee speak where actions speak louder than words, he really does seem genuine. MLB Network had one hell of a debate about him between H. Reynolds and M. Williams. Williams advocationg Power numbers are HIGHLY valuable in this day in age and Reynolds on the side of OBP and limiting strikeouts. I think they pretty much summed up this signing well, you get the good with the bad and maybe just maybe Pena has a breakout year at 34 in Wrigley in the NL.

Let me go back to Garza...Do this damn deal NOW!!! Even if you replace Jay Jackson with Hak Ju Lee...why would I of all people say this....Hak Ju Lee MAY be a stud, but the key word is MAY be. Remeber Brian Roberts for Felix Pie and Rich Hill... Cubs did not make the deal and those two players meant nothing to the Cubs past Present and Future...They still seek a lead off hitter. I believe 2011 is a wash BUT, BUT Garza is only 27 and has the chance to be a legit #1 for the next 3-6 years, that fits in our window. Make this deal happen!!!!

A measure of how good some of your prospects are: Which players are other teams targeting in trades?

During this off-season, the names that seem to keep popping up are Colvin, Cashner, Brett Jackson, Archer, Chirinos, and Hak-Ju Lee. We don't hear names such as Castillo, Guyer, Thomas, LaHair, Bibens-Dirkx, and Jay Jackson, as much.

While our beloved Cubs have a tendency to over-hype underperforming prospects, good major league teams don't tend to fall into that trap. The Rangers, Rays, and Padres have a reputation for being good talent evaluators. Let's hope that their evaluations of the players they are targeting are spot on.

You are slowly warming to Pena? What are you drinking?

Coffee and lack of sleep. I know I shouldn't, but watching some of the highlights, I like his agility at first, his ability to launch the ball and his character. By Mid April when he wiffs with runners on scoring position repeatedly my tune will change drastically and my intial impressions will stand true.

Cloycub - I know you are talking about with Pena. His press conference was very good, he said all right things, and he has the potential (there's that word again) to hit 40 HR's and bat 280.

Mitch Williams was drooling over the power guys, Harold Reynolds was talking up the contact and on-base guys. Let's see Harold was a contact and on-base guy, and Mitch Williams a pitcher, who would fear the power guys the most. If you ever want to know where their opinions come from, think of what they have been through. Aaron, did this with JH awhile back, and it explained alot of his moves.

Yeah...I think I know what you're referencing. Would you be talking about that post where I essentially psycho-analyzed Hendry all the way back to his college days, then Creighton, etc., and how he tends to hire the underdog, and give the benefit of the doubt to guys coming off career years, because that's how he advanced through his own career?

I still don't understand why he has a GM gig in MLB (shakes head).

That's the one. You can tell alot about people, the people they will surround themselves with, and the people they will consider good players, based on their past.

Yup....It's kind of like Michael Jordan, and his management style with the Wizards first, and then the Bobcats second....With the Wizards, he was so frustrated that he couldn't find another version of himself, that he suited up for practice, then ultimately attempted a comeback, because he wanted his style of play. From that point on, it's affected his management style, and nothing is good enough for him.

It's the same reason why a LOT of Hall of Famers like Bird, Isaiah Thomas, Jordan, etc., make crappy executives/coaches. They were so competitive (which made them great), that they think all the players under them should be at the same level they once were at. But when you take guys like Phil Jackson, Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa, Mike Scoscia, Ozzie Guillen, etc., and you make them decision-makers, all of a sudden, you have good teams, don't you? It's not like those guys worked harder at their games than the Hall of Fame players, but they had to work harder for what they did have, than the Hall of Fame players, if that makes sense. And thus, they instill that in their players. They teach them work ethic, perseverance, etc., whereas with the Hall of Famers, often times, the players under them feel like they can never measure up to expectations, and end up collapsing under the heavy weight of expectations.

Same goes for Scott Skiles. Skiles was a scrappy player, and anyone that wasn't pesky at defense, often times felt left out of the game plan, even if they were a good offensive player. Since he's left the Bulls for the Bucks, he's figured it out a little more, and learned to adapt to players that don't have the same intensity that he brought to the court when he was in the NBA.

On the flip side, when you see guys like Hendry not have any success, then have a magical season, and parlay that into a promotion, then have limited success, only to see that parlayed into yet another promotion, and so on, you're like "wait a minute!!!"

And then, you see that all of his decisions pretty much follow his own career path, and it all makes sense.

It's like Mike Quade. I already went over the stats with everyone on why Sandberg was more deserving, but just look at Quade's record at the end of the season, and you'll see why Hendry went with him. It was NOT because of Quade's minor league record (mostly because it wasn't all that great), but because of a small sample size in which he exceeded expectations. Haven't we seen that before with Hendry's free agent signings?!?

And I know I just painted a picture that Hall of Fame players make crappy coaches/execs....but Sandberg was different, and the reason is simple. Unlike those guys I mentioned, he didn't get into coaching right away after retiring, and most of the players coming up in the system never really had a chance to watch him play when they were younger anyhow...as his final continuous full season for all intents and purposes was basically 1992, as the strike, and his injuries took a toll in 1993 and 1994, and while he still came back in 1996 and 1997, most of the young guys coming up through our system probably didn't even know how great he was before.

Think about it for a second....most minor leaguers coming up right now through our system were just 7 years old when he retired for good, and they were just 2 years old when he played his last full continuous season in 1992.

Sandberg is an Average Joe...and he acts like it, and took the blue collar attitude of working his way up through the ranks, just as he did before.

Hendry probably resented this, because he didn't really have to do any of that himself, and he experienced limited success at each of his stops prior to becoming GM anyhow, while Sandberg experienced success at every stop along the way.

Now, everything Hendry does should make sense to everyone out there....it's not that hard to figure him out. He's a very bad guy to lead such a great organization with rich history like the Cubs

I agree on getting Garza, but not a no holds barred approach. He is not a stud #1, and not a legitamate ace, he is a very good pitcher, a lower tier #1, maybe, but most likely a very good #2, who will do better in the NL.

I had him in fantasy baseball last year, and he is not, what I consider, a stud pitcher.

I see where you are coming from, but he is better than what we have now...and in the NL, with his stuff, could be something special. The only way for the Cubs to improve their staff is via trade. I think he really does compare to Marcum who Milwaukee just landed, and everyone was in a tizzy over. This is an answer to that and an upgrade. I like it, but I doubt it will happen as most trade rumors that are mentioned with the Cubs are pipe dreams anyway.

I agree, though I wonder if we have the players that Tampa would want.

Trading Randy Wells or Gorz in that deal is a given; we won't have enough rotation slots, and Tampa would need cheap rotation fodder. Wells is more valuable to them than Gorz.

That's not near enough, and if I am Tampa, I want a top-5 Cubs prospect. Jay Jackson, Flaherty, and Chirinios don't get it done. That's quantity, not quality. I would want Hak-Ju Lee, or at least Carpenter/Jackson.

Cubs should not surrender Brett Jackson, Archer, or McNutt for Garza, that would be bad.

Agreed. The only way to get good, young MLB talent - and Garza has it, is to trade your prospects. I know this argument is as old as the day is long, but they are prospects. When the chance arises to add a legitimate studly young pitcher, you do it. And you don't look back.

According to Levine, the Rays are not looking for Major League players for Matt Garza. They are looking for near Major League ready players ... good young talent that arbitration clock has not started.

Wells and Gorzelanny would not fit that bill. The Tigers are interested in Gorzelanny.

The Rays have plenty of pitching depth in their system.

The Rays are very interested in Robinson Chirinos, that is the only name I've heard.

I would doubt Chris Archer and Brett Jackson are going anywhere ...

The Orioles took Casey Lambert in the second round of the Triple-A phrase

Neil - Do you know if any major league players, have ever come through after being taken in the minor league phases of the Rule V draft. I'm not talking about a cup of coffee, but someone who ended up sticking in the majors.

Not that I can recall ... but don't quote me.

Cubs just passed on their Double-A pick

Cubs just passed on the Triple-A phase

They just lost Ronny Morla to the New York Mets

No Cubs taken in Major league portion of Rule V draft.

Tobin has been traded for cash.

From Carrie Muskat:

Cubs have traded Rule 5 pick Mason Tobin to Rangers for cash considerations

Tobin had shoulder issues in 2008 and missed 2009 and 2010 due to Tommy John surgery

He must have some good potential, for the Rangers to want him and willing to pay a little more to the Cubs to pick him. But seems like a risk with the roster restrictions for being a Rule V pick.

Very, very risky. Will have more on him. Hasn't pitched above A ball

Neil - Do you know if there is any difference in Rounds 1,2,3 as far as compensation or roster requirements, or is it just so that a team could take 3 players if they wanted?

There is no difference in the rounds, teams can pick three players if they would like.

Tobin is being traded to the Rangers

Another Josh Hamilton style trade. Great!

@BaseballAmerica No. 7: #Cubs take RHP Mason Tobin from the #Angels.

Cubs pick RHP Mason Tobin in Rule 5 Draft. Tobin was in Angels system.

Phillies take Michael Martinez from Nationals

Twins take Scott Diamond from Braves.

Rays take Cesar Cabral from Red Sox.

Yankees take Robert Fish from Angels.

Padres take George Kontos from Yankees

Brewers take Patrick Egan from Royals

Mets take Brad Emaus from Blue Jays.

Astros take Aneury Rodriguez from Rays.

Nationals take Elvin Ramirez from Mets.

Royals take Nathan Adcock from Pirates

Diamondbacks take Joe Patterson from Giants.

Orioles take Adrian Rosario from Brewers.

Pirates take Josh Rodriguez from Indians.

Mariners take Jose Flores from Indians.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/2010-rule-5-draft-results.html

Only player listed in either article, is Steve Clevenger C

MLB.com's article

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101208&content_id=16286566&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Baseball America list on Rule V

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10641

Trying to post some links for the Rule V draft, and it goes to an screen about website approval. This happened once last week as well.

Rule V draft is today.

2 ways to get to a Baseball America article, listing players likely to be chosen. No Cubs Players listed.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/rule-5-draft-links.html

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10641

MLB.com's preview - does list 1 Cub

Steve Clevenger C

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101208&content_id=16286566&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

Rule V Draft is today at 8 am CST

Here is a link to Baseball America, previewing likely players to be chosen.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=10641

If it doesn't let you in, try going through MLB Trade Rumors.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/rule-5-draft-links.html

Here is MLB.com's article and it does list 1 Cub - Steve Clevenger C

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101208&content_id=16286566&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

was looking at chirinos numbers a little more closely.

he actually had more walks than K's last year (44 to 43).

How often do you see that anymore ? very rare. Pretty impressive.

just sayin...

but I would still love to see garza in blue pinstripes

One good thing about the Crawford signing...Soriano now has only the 3rd highest contract (based on dollars) ever.

Manny Ramirez - 8 years $160M (with option years that could of made it 10 years $200M)

Carl Crawford - 7 years $142M

Alfonso Soriano - 8 years $$136M

How many of these contract work out for the team?

Left out a word - For Outfielders

I would like Garza. Who wouldn't, moving to the NL, especially.

But Chirinos (I feel) is our next starting catcher. He is better defensively than Soto, and his bat keeps getting better. I'm not saying I wouldn't do a straight up deal, but if we have to give up 3 prospects, it will depend on who they are, as to moving forward. If this team was 1 player away, I would say trade away the prospects and go for it, but not in our situation, for a pitcher, who is about to get expensive. (I would want to hand Garza a contract to buy out the rest of his arb years and first year or 2 of FA.

But have no doubt, that JH will sacrifice future years (budget and players) to make the 2011 team better.

Crawford 7 years $142M

Werth 7 years $126M

If you fill your team with FA's you will overpay for the players.

What happened to the fiscal conservativism of last offseason?

Do these owners, see a different economic outlook for the year?

How much is AGon worth, if these guys are getting these contracts?

How about Fielder? Pujols?

The Cubs will be able to afford to signy some elite players in the coming years. But evaluation of your own farm system and the development of those players, has never been more important. Picking out the keepers and signing them to contracts to buy out not only arbitration years, but early free agency is going to be critical, to keeping a team's payroll under control.

What in hell is Boston playing with? The Steinbrenners are shuttering. Go Theo, go get Cliff Lee!

Where is Suzy when you want her?

Happy days for of her teams!

Pedroia

Crawford

Youk

AGon

Eat your hearts out Yankees. That 1-4 is wicked.

Lester

Beckett

Buchholz

Put Cliff Lee at the top of that, drop Beckett to the #3 (or 4) that he is, and Wow!