HAS THIS GUY NEVER HEARD OF AUSTIN BIBENS-DIRKX?

That does seem to be a glaring obmission. Take these lists for what they are, projections about potential. They are wrong alot more than they are right, but that is baseball, where failure 70% of the time, is Hall of Fame worthy.

Alright Rip...

Here's what I was going to say earlier, but ran out of time.

For every player that makes the big leagues, there are 125 that don't make it...mathematically speaking (each team has an average of 6 minor league teams: AAA, AA, High-A, Low-A, and 2 Rookie Ball teams with average of 25 players on each). That amounts to 150 players, but since an MLB roster must have 25 players, that leaves, at least theoretically, 125 players out in the cold.

The point is, you are absolutely correct to point out that most rookies do NOT succeed, but at the same time, I don't think you acknowledge my point, which is there is something inherently wrong with a scouting system (meaning both league-wide AND print publications) that seem to reward hype over production in more cases than not.

As I mentioned, if they just used stats to evaluate players, they'd be much better off, and could have better time management, allocating their time wisely.

I don't have the data with me on this computer, as my other one is getting fixed, but I created a spreadsheet, noting the best performers at the big league level with projectable minor league stats, had about these averages in the minors (and consistent at that):

POWER HITTERS:

.300+avg, .370+OBP, .500+SLG

*I think the average might be off...couldn't remember if it was that, or .310+ (what I did was compiled a list of consistent All-Star players, and looked up their minor league stats to figure this out...same for the other categories too)

CONTACT HITTERS:

.310+avg, .350+OBP

PITCHERS:

3.50 ERA and below, and a sub 1.30 WHIP, and for power pitchers, at least 8K/9IP

So let's say you're a GM, and you had the following choices in a trade:

Former #1 pick...power hitter with a .270-.285 avg, .330-.350 OBP, and averages about 25 hr, 100 RBI in the minors

or...

.290-.300 avg, .370-.380 OBP, 10-15 hr, 75-80 RBI per season

I'd choose the latter, but a lot of GM's (mostly old school ones or back in the day), would've chosen the former first rounder, just because of status.

The thing I look for most in the minor leagues, is consistency. If a player performs well at all levels, and even increase production upon promotion, chances are, he'll have great success at the MLB level, but if you have a player like Jason Dubois, who early on in his minor league career met that description (except for a minor snafu in AA, only to continue his path of success in AAA), who was just a 14th round selection, he generally will NOT get the benefit of the doubt, and a full opportunity at the MLB level (which he never received). Don't believe me? Look at this:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=dubois001jas

And I am NOT saying that he would've been this All-Star type of player, but I think, if given a full opportunity, he would've succeeded.

There are plenty more examples, but I need to get going here....

And the teams that people often mention that are good at developing talent like the Braves, Rays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Twins, etc....The one thing they have in common is they did a complete rebuild at one point in time.

What they did, was they went with their young prospects, saw who could make it, who needed more seasoning, and who would never make it, made the appropriate roster decisions, and filled in with stopgap veterans until their other prospects were ready.

Hendry is a reactionary GM. He is NOT proactive, and thus, we are in the predicament we're in.

I can tell you this much. If we went with a rotation like this:

Zambrano

Dempster

Gorzelanny

McNutt

Archer

We'd have a LOT more success than what we'll get this year

Furthermore, if we went with a lineup like this:

Lee-SS

Castro-2B

Colvin-RF

ARAM-3B

Jackson-CF

Guyer-LF

Spencer/LaHair/Ridling/Bour-1B

Chirinos/Castillo-C

We'd be MUCH farther along in the rebuilding process, and could identify which players fit into future plans....But we're stuck with the likes of Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, DeWitt, Baker, Pena, etc., guys that absolutely do NOT fit that description, and that's why the Cubs have not developed players. It's NOT because players aren't worthy of a call-up or a full-time opportunity, it's that the Cubs are too locked in with veteran contracts, and they simply don't have the wiggle room to bring them up. Plain and simple.

Also....another case of prospect overhype versus actual results that'd ring a bell with most Cubs fans is Dave Kelton vs Eric Hinske. How'd that work out for us by the way?!?

Jim Clueless' job is simply to keep the sheep of the Cubs' flock coming to the slaughterhouse, ie, keep buying those tickets. That's right, Cubs' fans: you're just a bunch of sheep. (For city slickers, that means you're not too smart, for sheep is one of the most helpless and stupid animals on the planet).

His method is really quite simple:

Do something to make the team seem competitive to the sheep fans that the Cubs have. Give $10 million to a clubhouse guy like hahahahhahahahhaa "Carlos Pena" hahahahhaahahahhhahahhahahahahaha.

Or Jeremy Burnitz. OR Jacque Jones! AHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAA!

Or any number of "celebrity" "stars" that will, no doubt, make the Cubs a winner in the coming year.

Aaron

I completely agree with your post. Press and management hype certain player because they gave them the big bucks, and they cannot admit that they (ie, the management) was wrong to make them big bonus babies.

Stats are the proof in the pudding.

When I was in college in SC, Drew Denson was a #1 pick of the Atlanta Braves in 1984. I remember watching him strikeout time after time after time in Greenville. He had no clue. He looked like Chris Davis did last year. They kept batting him #3 in the lineup, because after all, he was the #1 pick in the 1984 draft. If he came up with men on base, FORGETABOUTIT.

He eventually got 44 PA, .244 0hr 5RBI in the bigs. EL BUSTO. But he occupied a roster spot for years on the Braves, Reds, and White Sox. Two minutes of astute observation in 1987 would have saved a lot of time and given his place to someone with a chance to make it in the majors. But no, he was the bonus baby, and he got every chance. Another Earl Cunningham and David Kelton.

Cubs fans, do miss this fact: one star player is worth 4-5 average players. That's because the average player is a part time player, a platoon player, while a star is a difference maker. In the same way, a #1 starter is hard, hard, hard to come by. You can find #3, #4 and #5's, but a true Ace is hard to find. And a true ace is a difference maker. Rick Suttcliffe in 1989, going 16-1, was a huge difference maker. If the Cubs had acquired a 10-10 pitcher, they might not have even made the playoffs, because they finished six games ahead of the Mets.

SO: the Brewers ripped the KC Royals, and MR. Incompetent, Dayton Moore, off--a royal rip off.

Let's see.

Joe Carter, 2 World Championship rings. Rick Suttcliffe........none.

Since 2003, the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, LA Angels, LA Dodgers, Minnesota Twins, NY Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, and Tampa Bay Rays have had 37 playoff appearances, 7 World Series appearances, and 5 World Championships. Besides winning, what to all of these teams have in common? They all are better at developing and promoting their own players than our own beloved Cubs. While most fans tend to focus on the Cubs spending as much as other big market teams, they pay little attention to player development. These teams have a strategy of playing their prospects over and extended time. They then make an honest evaluation and keep the good ones, while trading the others. The Cubs don't seem to have a strategy. The never seem to bring their players up at the right time. They then either jerk them in and out of the line-up or shatter their confidence. Starlin Castro was an exception last year. If the Cubs adapted the strategy of the major's most successful franchises, they could add to the totals mentioned above.

I consider Grienke's last three seasons, 2008-2010. These are his first 3 consecutive seasons as a starter, at ages 24, 25 and 26.

Avg innings: 217, K/BB: 202/54 (3.74), WHIP just below 1.20, HR/162 games: 18

Compared to Zambrano's age 24, 25 and 26 seasons (by far his most consistent 3 seasons in a row):

Avg innings: 218, K/BB: 196/101 (1.95), WHIP: 1.25, HR/162 games: 22

These are just pitcher stats, offense and W% not withstanding. I think that after the 2007 season, when Big Z was truly Big Z and just 26 years old, most baseball people and certainly Cubs fans where calling him an Ace, at the very least an Ace in the making. It has been all downhill since then, and pretty steep too.

My point is that Grienke is quite a bit better at the same age than Z was. Could Grienke fall apart too? Sure. Should he be considered an Ace in the NL Central? Yes.

I wonder if Z isn't really older than he says. He's supposed to be 30 on 1 June 2011. Maybe he's really 32. That kind of thing has happened before, hasn't it?

Otherwise I would say that it was a very fine post, JC.

gotta agree w/ Rip........all this talk on here about rebuild w/ our propects....none of who are rated as an impact bat, etc. it's all BS!

either the new owners spend the money to win a WS or stop all this BS....102 yrs and counting......there is NO grace period.

ya want to contend now-PK McCaskey...trade whatever for garza and let's go.

cubs fans should not be waiting around for josh vitters; a/k/a brandon wood.

the last prospect we had as a hitter actually have a good-long career was grace........and i hope starlin castro.

pie-both patterson's-hell ryan harvey spent 6 yrs in A ball......missing everything he swung at.

just kills me when we worry about marquez smith becoming the next 30 homer dude---------please, get the F*** real.

casey mcgehee was a once in a lifetime fluke-he ain't gonna have 90 ribbies ever again.

highest tix price in baseball; folks-right here at your/our wrigley field.

TIME to stop we are gonna play the kids BS........spend it; re-spend it and end the longest drought of no championships in over a century in the history of professional sports; any sport, in all of America.........for god's sake-read that line again........EVER!!!....no championships.......EVER!!!--any sport...and we should wait for josh vitters or is it karl pagel or earl cunningham or pete lacock----.

tick tock........

But I disagree about Casey McGahee: I think he's real. Last year 2010--was his second year. He has done it two years in a row, so I think he's real.

I certainly would have taken Caseys stats at 2nd for the Cubbies last year. We might have even made the playoffs. If Im right, his RBI total would have led the Cubs.

Rip, GREAT POSTS!! very informative.

Rip,

I can respect your argument on prospects and the Milwaukee/KC deal IF you feel the same way about the Cubs prospects.

Would you have dealt a package of B. Jackson, Archer, Lee and J. Jackson for Greinke? If you argue that other team's prospects don't have much value, then you should believe that ours shouldn't either.

You asked about would I trade Brett Jackson, Jay Jackson, Archer and Lee, so here's your answer:

The Brewers gave up their #1 prospect Escobar, their #8 Cain, and their #9 prospect Odorizzi, as well as Jeffress, who has lost 100 games for marijuna use. Baseball Prospectus says he was put on the Brewers 40 man roster to keep him from being tested for marijuna again. (read it here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12607

So--let's give value for value: the Cubs #1, #8, #9 and a lesser player like Jeffress.

The Cubs equal prospects are:

#1 Brett Jackson

#8 Reggie Golden OF

#9 Jay Jackson P

#20 Alberto Cabrarra, RHP

I make this deal. You can read the top Cubs prospects list here:

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2010/12/cubsprospects11.php

Brett Jackson:

22 yrs old, will be 23 Aug 2, 2011. RATED #74 best prospect in MLB by Baseball American (see Brad Snyder, who once was #71 ranked prospect by Baseball America). So you see, you don't have a sure thing here. He has decent numbers for 2010 between A and AA: .297 12HR 66RBI 30SB and 11CS.

Jay Jackson: age 23, #98 ranked prospect.

11-8 4.63 ERA in 157 IP/25 GS, 7 Relief

I'd deal him. Not a sure thing here.

Alberto Cabrarra: 23 years old, 7-9 4.63ERA whip 1.463 Deal him away.

And even if you insist on the ones you mentioned, here's my opinion:

Chris Archer 15-3 2.34 He's better than either pitcher KC received, so I would adjust the deal. Archer stays and another prospect replaces him, or else we give up less by keeping Brett Jackson or Lee or Jay Jackson.

Hak-Ju Lee: age 20, class A in 2010:

551PA 1HR 40 RBI .282

I deal him away in a hurry.

Jeffress is actually the Brewers #28 top prospect rated on January 2010.

Dave, I make that trade in a HEART-BEAT!!! Forget the 2 Cub pitchers involved, Greinke is a #2 at worst, you get him and who cares about Archer and Jackson. Lee is way to far down the chain, he's 2-3 years away from being on the big club if he makes it at all. Plus we already have Castro, that makes Lee very expendable. Brett Jackson is projected to be a good player NOT a great player, and again he's still at AA. Greinke is already a difference maker....not true with the others......I MAKE THE DEAL.

Bob-Only thing id say about Greinke-dont forget, this guy skipped a year to get over mental issues. And thats pitching in a less pressured environment than what Wrigley would have been. At least in Milwaukee he will have Gallardo and Marcum to help ease the pressure to perform. Can you imagine this guy if he gets off to a bad start if he were pitching at Wrigley? or have you forgotten about another rather talented pitcher who couldnt get it done in Wrigley, One LaTroy Hawkins?

I dont, Greinke would be HORRRIBLE here, hes a milton bradley esce headcase if he comes to a big market team

Earl Cunningham--you really, really know how to hurt a guy, don't you?

#8 pick in 1989 Amateur draft, right behind Frank Thomas. A high school player--almost always a mistake to take a USA high schooler that high. His first year, in Appalachian league, was his best. Voted #4 prospect in the league that year. Hit just .258 with .304 OBP and .458 slugging.

Next year, promoted to A ball, hit .216 with .269 OBP and slugged a lousy .305 with 108k and 13BB in 269 AB. Hahahahahaha!

1991 saw him smoke .239, .258 OBP and .438 slugging while fanning 145 times against 10--count 'em--10 walks. But he hit 19 HR in 381 AB AND BASEBALL AMERICAN NAMED HIM THE #7 BEST CUBS' PROSPECT. (Now Eugene, that ought to tell you something about "rated #X best prospect"].

1992, between A and AA ball--you'd better sit down for this--hit .227 with.277 OBP and .378 slugging, so he was promoted to AA where he hit a smoking .108 with .140 OBP and .217 slugging, striking out in ALMOST ONE HALF OF HIS AB (152k in 321AB).

Another shot at class A he managed .194 and .248 OBP with .360 slugging, spending most of his time AS A DH.

Finally the Cubs gave up on him, and the Angels and Rockies took over, and he did no better at all.

For that matter,

How about the Cubs wonderful record with some of their own position prospects

* Micah Hoffpauir .251 BA, .312 OBP and 12 HR in 162 games

* Jake Fox .236 BA, .285 OBP, 18 HR in 166 games

* Sam Fuld .252 BA, .368 OBP, 1 Hr and 2 SB in 98 games

* Josh Vitters -- #3 overall pick in 2007 draft, has played 290 minor league games without a glimpse at the bigs, and hit 33 HR in 290 Minor League games at a .753 OPS

* Felix Pie Career .255 BA, .305 OBP and 17 HR over 4 seasons.

* Corey Patterson .253 BA, .292 OBP, 112 HR in 11 seasons.

* Jason DuboSe .233 BA, .286 OBP and 10 HR in 86 games.

Jim Hendry thought he had a nice cool Chicken Salad forming, only to find, like all his other recipes, what he had was a steaming pile of Chicken Shi$%

Hendry is a dolt and imbecile and the laughing stock of baseball -- but somehow still our GM..

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/fantasywindup/post/2010/01/whos-the-worst-gm-in-baseball/1

Ranked behind only Omar Minaya as the biggest dunce in baseball...

Hey they left out players who had a bad years (lihe bruke)and down graded players who are taking to long (Vittes), I like what the Cubs have in the miors for the most part as fair as talent go's. But the big thing is haveing a good coaching staff and Player advivers to keep these kids focus. That alot of times will make the differnbes between Major leagers and Bustouts. TRhat has been the Cubs problem in the past Patterxon/Pie etc. where puch threw the system and not held up to higher standarsd like baseball fundimentals of bunting/running/hitting the cutoff man/and situatiional baseball,

I think we have had the talent but not the coaching/guidence that is required to get threw to these kids. Hopfuly that is being to change unfer our new mior leage cordinator hoe hendry higher about five years ago.. I am still nigh on a first basmen who was in High A ball last yers ("Thr Rebal") can play on my team.... Nice cluth hitting frist basemen with untaooed powe

(allol sanberg in the minors)

Ladies and Gentlemen:

It is easy to see that Milwaukee robbed KC if you consider these facts: Projections rarely result in ML performance.

Baseball Prospectus ranked Thomas Diamond, pre-2005, the #52 best prospect in all of baseball. Pre-2006, they ranked him #72. See for yourself right here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=diamon001tho

Brad Snyder: pre-2005 #84 best prospect

pre-2006 #71 best prospect.

See for yourself here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=snyder001bra

Here's the top 10 Baseball America Prospects of 2007

#1 Dice K: he's a flop

#2 Alex Gordon, KC .215 8 hr 20 rbi in 281PA in 2010, now age 27

#3 Delmon Young finally caught fire in 2010

#4 Phil Hughes 18-8 4.29 ERA in 2010 thanks to Yanks high scoring lineup

#5 Homer Bailey: 16-16 5.09 in 4 ML seasons. Not great at all.

#6 CAMERON MAYBIN .234 8hr 28rbi in 322 PA in 2010. Great stats, eh?

#7 EVAN LONGORIA .294 22hr 104 rbi GREAT!

#8 BRANDON WOOD 4 ML seasons, 479 AB career .146 hitter. WOW! He's Great!!

#9 JUSTIN UPTON 17 hr .273ba 69 RBI in 571 PA in 2010. Good, not great.

#10 ANDREW MILLER 1-5 8.54 in 2010. Career 15-26 5.84 Man, he's great!

So you see, these guys projected well, but not all of them became great.

My conclusion: Milwaukee ROBBED KC of an ACE.

Rip,

First of all.....EXCELLENT research. I love it when people other than myself take it upon themselves to look stuff up....

That being said, I both agree and disagree with your take on prospects.

Every year we get the top prospects list from BA or Prospectus.

The main problem with these types of lists is the fact that most of their names come from organizational hype versus production on the field. For example.....those guides often overvalue the likes of Vitters and undervalue/not even rate the likes of Chirinos, Campana, etc....or a player like Kyler Burke has a breakout season, so they rank him high, only to see him fall off the map the very next season.

If these services and most scouts in general used my methodology, they'd be far more accurate.

For instance....I predicted Moreland would be better than Smoak, even though Smoak was ranked way higher, based on Moreland's solid and consistent minor league stats. And thus far, I am right. I have done this with a HUGE number of free agents, and been able to predict likely outcomes as well.

The problem with baseball and many other sports and even the general public with some jobs, is the fact that some people are given opportunities based on connections versus actual experience or production. Undeserving people often ruin organzations while the ones that really want the job and have the production to back it up either get left out in the cold or find another organization willing to give them a shot.

In baseball, you can EASILY point out the political terms such as "great clubhouse guy" or "handles the pitching staff" or "has other intangibles" or "has shown potential" .....all these terms mean is the individual has NOT earned playing time, but due to signing bonus, hype, connections in management/scouting, option years left, large salary, etc., is being given an opportunity that should've otherwise gone to a more deserving player.

I can think of multiple minor leaguers we've had that would've been solid MLB players, but never were given a shot because undeserving players were ahead of them on the depth chart. But just like the normal world, things are definitely unfair.

If teams operated with more common sense, I think we'd see an even better product on the field. If teams learned my scouting method, where all you do is look at stats, and use it to predict the consistent and successful MLB players, I think they'd be far more efficient with their time and energy.

Bill James agrees with your post about using stats . . . .

I'm looking forward to you expounding further on my posts.

I will respond more to your post later, Rip, when I have more time.....and will expound on why I believe you're both correct and incorrect at the same time

I long for the days of Dallas Green when the Cubs had a potential Rookie of the year almost every year. I don't believe a trade for Greinke was in the best interest of the Cubs. They have some minor league talent that with development could be very good. Potentially, especially if they sign Webb, they have plenty of pitching and will be trading starting pitching for good prospects at the end of spring. Unless something drops in their lap the only move I would make at this point is to sign Webb for an incentive laden contract.

Minor stats are useful if we've considered the essential parts that demonstrate the player's particular skills.

In the case of Cain, he seems to be hurt in 2008, started all over again from Rookie ball in 2009, with limited action: half of his usual at-bats.

After he got to full action 2010, Cain also cut his struck-out rate and walked a lot more in 380 at-plates split b/w Double- and Triple-A. I once brought this up for Vitters, who had shown similar improvement from his previous seasons.

This is not to say that Cain will become a 400-400 (on-base and slug-avg.) star, but he had shown progress b/w all these numbers.

I hope the same may be said about Vitters...

The Cain/Fuld comparison ignores skills ... Cain has a lot more of them than Fuld. You can't just look at minor league stats ...

Starlin Castro's minor league stats are similar to Ceasar Izturis ... certainly no one thinks Castro is going to perform in the majors like Izturis.

KC got a nice haul for Greinke. Many Cub fans would likely be upset with Jim Hendry if he traded a comparable package of prospects for Greinke.

Why is little lefty OF Tony Campana (24yrs) always overlooked? He hit .319, OBP .378 and had 48 stoled bases. He'll start at Iowa in 2011. Cubs need a leadoff hitter.

Yes, Campana had 48 sb but was also caught stealing 20 times that is a horrible percentage. He is a singles hitter with an occasional double or triple. He doesn't have blazing speed and isn't and elite defender is only 5'8 and doesn't project to have any power down the road.

I will say this for him though from everything that I have heard about him, he is a very hardworker and has a lot of heart.

Mike Fontenot is another smaller guy at 5'8 who is very servicable at the ML level okay speed decent defense, with some power that he displayed all through the minors though. He also showed versatility in the minors with the ability to play SS,2b, and 3b.

Campana has played mainly CF, and some LF his fielding % in LF is pretty terrible though. He does show dedication he is currently at Camp Colvin doing weight training with several other players under the direction of the Cubs strength and conditioning Coach Tim Buss. Maybe with this added strength he will show some power.

I really like to root for guys like this under dogs with a lot of heart. I think his best possible projection is a 4th or 5th OF.

Campana is Juan Pierre jr. Weve already had a bad experiment with the first Mr Pierre.

Not bad for a 13th rounder, probably like Doug Dascenzo or John Cangelosi.

Here's some history of trades of big time starters for "prospects:"--

Cleveland Indians sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee and got Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson in return. LaPorta, who was supposed to be a monster bat, has a .694 OPS in 162 games with Cleveland.

Cliff Lee was the centerpiece of three trades that brought a total of 11 prospects to the Indians, Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners. If anyone out there knows for sure that big things are in store for Justin Smoak, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Phillippe Aumont, Josh Lueke or Blake Beavan, feel free to raise your hand.

Minnesota sent Johan Santana to the New York Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. That package looks good only if Santana's recent shoulder problems obliterate what's left of his career.

Blue Jays shipped Roy Halladay to Philadelphia last December in exchange for catcher Travis D'Arnaud, pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor, who turned into outfield prospect Anthony Gose after two subsequent spin-off trades.

SO . . . it looks to me like KC got the short end of the stick. . .again.

"Prospects are suspects until they prove what they can do at the ML level."--Keeeeenny Williams, White Sox GM, who is a better GM than Jim Clueless.

Sporting News SportsNation fans gave the Brewers to have received the best of the trade 80% to 20%.

Let's look at Milwaukee's prospects they dealt over to KC for a proven Cy Young award winner, Zach Greinke:

KC received--

Lorenzo Cain: 25 yrs old April, 2011. Sam Fuld type of player. Let's look at their minor league stats:

Both six years in the minors

BA: Cain .291 Fuld .285

HR Cain 31 Fuld 24

SB Cain 124 Fuld 106

OPS Cain .809 Fuld .777

Cain is a slightly better offensive player. That doesn't impress me too much.

Neither has much power. Neither are 50 SB per year type of players. Sure, Cain hit .306 in 150 AB in 2010. Fuld hit .299 in 115 AB in 2009.

Escobar:

23 years old on Opening Day. In 552 AB last year he hit

.238BA .288OBP 4HR 41RBI 10SB 4CS .326Slug .614OPS

Yes, he's young, but he's not much of an offensive player as of yet. Has potential, but if he hits like this in another two years, he's Caesar Izturis--that ain't much at all.

Jeremy Jeffress:

23 yrs old

Busted for drugs and suspended for fifty games in 2007. Started 2009 in AA, but sent down to A ball after a rough start. Throws in upper 90's and has a hard breaking slider. Could be a good pitcher, but he's just a reliever, not a starter.

Jake Odorizzi

20 yrs old. Drafted by Brewers #1 out of High School. A talent that has had some trouble adjusting to Rookie and A minor leagues. Right now he's not close to ML ready.

Milwaukee gave up a light hitting SS, a singles hitting CF, and two pitching prospects for a CY Young Award winner who could win 20 games for them in 2011. Light hitting SS are easy to find, as are light hitting CF. I say Milwaukee won this trade big time.

Rip check the prospect rankings! Baseball Prospectus, baseball america ect. The SamFuld vs Cain comparison is a mega stretch. Jeremy and Jake are class A prospects and Escobar too! KC had to move Greinke and got serious value in return. We all know JH sucks, but this has nothing to do with that. Sam Fuld was not going to get us Greinke!

Baseball Prospectus ranked Thomas Diamond, pre-2005, the #52 best prospect in all of baseball. Pre-2006, they ranked him #72. See for yourself right here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=diamon001tho

Brad Snyder: pre-2005 #84 best prospect

pre-2006 #71 best prospect.

See for yourself here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=snyder001bra

Here's the top 10 Baseball America Prospects of 2007

#1 Dice K: he's a flop

#2 Alex Gordon, KC .215 8 hr 20 rbi in 281PA in 2010, now age 27

#3 Delmon Young finally caught fire in 2010

#4 Phil Hughes 18-8 4.29 ERA in 2010 thanks to Yanks high scoring lineup

#5 Homer Bailey: 16-16 5.09 in 4 ML seasons. Not great at all.

#6 CAMERON MAYBIN .234 8hr 28rbi in 322 PA in 2010. Great stats, eh?

#7 EVAN LONGORIA .294 22hr 104 rbi GREAT!

#8 BRANDON WOOD 4 ML seasons, 479 AB career .146 hitter. WOW! He's Great!!

#9 JUSTIN UPTON 17 hr .273ba 69 RBI in 571 PA in 2010. Good, not great.

#10 ANDREW MILLER 1-5 8.54 in 2010. Career 15-26 5.84 Man, he's great!

So you see, these guys projected well, but not all of them became great.

My conclusion: Milwaukee ROBBED KC of an ACE.

Prospect rankings do not ensure ML success. Remember Keeeeeeeennnnny William's rule: "Prospects are just suspect until they prove it on the ML level."

What about that Santana trade? How did Minnesota profit? How about that Cliff Lee trade? How did that work out? And the trade for Halliday?

All of those prospects projected well, they just haven't worked out so far.

As for Fuld and Cain comparo, well, it was just that, a comparison of their minor league stats. Bill James rule #1:

"Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics."

Nothing we didn't already know, about our system. Our farm system is loaded with arms, up the middle prospects. We lack the big bats, that fill the corners. This team needs to convert a higer percentage of prospects into major leaguers, over the next few years, than they have been able to do in the past.

Hopefully, if the season is lost by the trade deadline, they will move away from the aging vets of Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, ARam, Pena, Silva, Grabow and the players like Baker and Hill to allow for youth to get some valuable experience, at the big level. They wasted last September (and even August) on aging vets.

Thats been Wilkens trait wherever hes been. Hes always been a type who loads up with depth up the middle and in ptiching. Compare that to teams like the Cleveland Indians and Brewers, who always seem to have there best talent in Of or 1b/DH types. I happen to think Wilken has the right idea. Kinda like in football, where the winners build strong O and D lines and get the skill position players later.

And it looks like they are wasting this year too, or atleast a big part of it with veteran players that will not be withbus in 1-2 years.

So in regard to Barney..

Why are we keeping a 'player to keep an eye on' on the 25-man?

Do you have a better option for a utility infielder?

My utility infielder needs to be able to play 2B/SS and hopefully 3B, and in a pinch the OF. They also should cost the league minimum, meaning they are a controlled player (0-3 years).

Also keep in mind that the players to keep an eye on, are the Grade of C. I know we all want A's, but C is average. Average players fill the roster. Above average players (B's) are the majority of your roster, and (A's) are your top players.

I think Barney fits. To keep the spot, he will have to hit a little more than he did last year. Plus, the 25 man is only during the season, he is currently on the 40 man roster, which, I believe last year was his first year on the 40 man. I expect him to be one of the 5 bench players (Barney, Baker, Fukudome, Back-up Catcher (Hill or Castillo), and 1 open spot.)

Barney doesnt seem to be the most overly talented player. On the other hand, he did play on those 2 College WS winners at Oregon St. The one thing he does seem to do is the little things that help win. The young man strikes me as a winner, though not as a great talent.

It's just that I'm so used to Jim keeping 5 B second basemen on the roster and C outfielders.

It's just kind of jarring you know?