I'd take Wells over Soriano right now. Hell yes. I don't know what the difference in years and $$ between the two is. I'm gonna look.

The difference is 8.5M$ over the course of the next 5 years.

It's ironic - sort of - because Wells's contract was so clearly modeled after Soriano's. He peaks at 23m$ next year and has the option to opt out before going back DOWN to 21M$ for the last 3 years. Sheesh.

If they could even the $$ out, I would do it. Why not? Wells isn't going to be worse in the NL Central than Soriano is. And like Paul pointed out, it's a big upgrade on defense. He's 2 years younger (officially, probably 3 or 4 in reality), I'd do it for that.

Pipe dreams.

I think the Cubs should have Rudy look at video of Vernon Wells to see if he sees any correctable flaws. Because after watching Soriano in the OF on Saturday I think he needs a DH position. I think JH should approach the Blue Jays about Wells if Soriano would waive his NTC. Yes, Wells is a worse contract, but the 8.5m bonus for this year should have already been paid making it 12.5m for this year. Maybe you can get the BJ's to split the difference of the remaining years and hope are young guys come through in the future to absorb the extra future expense.

At least Wells can field and is younger. I have the same fear as Aaron mention in earlier post about Soriano's decline becoming drastic. He becomes more valuable as a DH since he won't be putting as much stress on his legs everyday.

The thing I'm scared of most right now, is we're apparently in desperation mode right now regarding the pen, and we all know how Hendry gets screwed even when he's not in desperation mode, then you take it times 10, and that's what happens when he IS in desperation mode.

All you have to do is consider the 2007 trade for Trachsel, when he had a 4.48 ERA with the Orioles, and we trade for him with a month to go in the season for 2 very serviceable young players in Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry, both of whom were at the top of our prospect lists at the time (which doesn't say much...but still). At the time, there were other options available for depth in the rotation via DFA's, but he chose to trade 2 good prospects for a guy who was a shell of his former self, and dubbed "the human rain delay"...

Then, last year, he shot himself in the foot by publicly declaring he wasn't going to resign Wood, and forced himself into desperation mode, having to drastically overpay for Gregg, who was coming off like 9 blown saves (I believe), knee surgery, AND was going to be non-tendered by the Marlins anyhow. So what does Hendry do? Here you go Marlins, here's arguably our top pitching prospect, Jose Ceda, who throws over 100 mph.

Yes, Ceda was injured last year, but it's the principle of the matter. You simply do NOT trade a top prospect for anyone that is about to be non-tendered and/or DFA'd (in the case of Trachsel). If another team with a worse record wants to claim him, then let them...because he's probably not worth it. I think Hendry all-too-often gets caught up in guys coming back from injury, or "returning to form", or whatever, that he fails to go after sure things right in front of his face that make too much sense.

When it comes to relievers, I would NEVER trade top prospects of any sort for anyone, unless it was a Mariano Rivera, or Broxton, or Wagner (back in the day), or Papelbon. Why? Because as Neil and others have stated on here (including myself) in the past, relief pitching is a crapshoot. If you're not only going to put yourself on the hook for top prospects, but ALSO a few million dollars for that relief pitcher, then it's probably wise for you to hang onto your prospects and money, and let your young guys handle the job.

After all, that's how we landed Marmol, Guzman, Marshall, Berg, Caridad, and Samardzija (2008, when he was excellent for us) in the pen. We simply went with our young guys, and if you look at the performances of veteran guys we brought in like Cotts, Heilman, Gregg, etc., they completely outperformed those guys, and, aside from Guzman (injury) and Samardzija (rotation), they all figure prominently now in our pen.

Marmol, Caridad, Marshall, Berg, Grabow, and 2 of Gaub/Gray/Dolis/Atkins/Mateo/Parisi/Stevens is really not a bad option.

But when you start looking at a Jason Frasor, who is average-to-below average at best in the pen, and you might be forced to part ways with young talent that could help you in a few years on the parent club, or be a part of bigger trades (as I said before was the biggest problem with letting go of Veal and Ceda last year) for better players.

I hope Ricketts wises up, and realizes Hendry is simply not fit to run this franchise, and we get a knowledgeable, stand-up man in their to get this team a championship.

I wholeheartedly expect to see a headline of:

"Cubs trade Hak Ju Lee/Flaherty/Rhee/Jay Jackson/Carpenter/Burke/Castro for ______________ (fill in the name of an average reliever)"

instead, the better trade would be:

"Cubs trade Tony Thomas/Barney/Adduci/Fuld/Hoffpauir/Fontenot/Camp for _______________ (average reliever)"

Why those guys? Because they don't figure prominently in our future, and are largely redundant players to what we already have. In most cases, they're even too old to be considered prospects anymore, which is precisely the type of player you trade for an average reliever.

Aaron:

Don't forget: just because they are young doesn't mean they are good. What did Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry actually produce at the ML level, anyway?

Moore

2007 47 ab 1 hr, 11 rbi .255

2008 8 ab 1 hr, 1 rbi .125

2009 DNP--he's out of baseball now

Rocky Cherry

2007 16.1 IP, 0-0,7.71 ERA

2008 17 IP, 0-3 6.71 era

2009 DNP--out of baseball; released by Mets

Okay, so we lost nothing for Trauschel. The big disaster was that we benched someone who had a chance to win a game for us, Sean Marshall, to pitch Trauschel, who was just awful.

Cubs starters in 2007

Z (18-13), Lilly (15-8), Marquis (12-9), Hill (11-8), Marshall (7-9), Trashel (1-3 8.31). That's all folks! Not much depth for a #5 starter.

Rip, I agree. I always thought that was one of Hendry's "nice" trades for the players. He knew they both would have a better opportunity in a new organization and pretty much blocked with the Cubs. He also knew their ceiling.

I also understand Aaron's fear. I hope we don't see a Karchner for Garland type deal. I know that was Lynch but I still have the fear.

Actually, both are still in baseball...hadn't heard Cherry was released by the Mets, but I knew he was with the Red Sox organization last year...so, he signed with the Mets, they released him, he caught on with the BoSox organization, and had a 2.57 ERA or something with them, so, he's still around.

As for Moore, he's already hit a bomb with the O's in ST, as I saw the other day on ESPN.

I was on Baseball reference, and they said Moore dnp in 2009. Upon further research (after your post), I see he had 123 AB for Norfolk (O's AAA) in 2009 with .252 BA, 7 HR and 21 RBI.

Rocky Cherry: released by Mets in ST 2009. Padres minor league AAA club released him after 6 games, and he caught on with BoSox Pawtuckett. Had a whip of 1.571 and 2.57 ERA in 63 IP.

Still, they are not ML players and will not be.

Yeah but Rip...the gist of Aaron's post is correct...Hendry does not do well

trading from weakness.

So the question is...in the BIG picture...2010/2011/2012...is it better

to go with an all kid pen or overpay for

a backend pen guy?

My point, Miss Suzy, : )

The kids couldn't do the job in 2007, so we lost nothing trading for Traschel, whom MIGHT have done the job, and who had 3 good starts in a row before the Cubs got him.

In 2010, I'd certainly stick (ML level) with Caridad, and probably Cashner, Coleman, Russell, Berg, Mateo.

I don't see anyone out there worth picking up right now. They passed on all the good ones.

BTW Joe Nathan is out for 2010.

Aaron, here I agree with you completely.

But I have a question I've been thinking about....for a year...we've said Samardzija should just be a starter.

In this circumstance. would you put Samardzija into the pen?

I wouldn't put Samardzija in the pen, because his stuff is better suited for a starting role, and here's why:

1) He has the body type for starter

2) He has too much movement on his pitches to be a consistent reliever, and what I mean by that is high walk totals. Samardzija and Zambrano have about as much movement as you'll see on their pitches as anyone else in the organization. Neither would be effective long-term in relief due to this simple fact, as most of the times, you come in the game with runners on base.

3)The Cubs need starting pitching right now, and Jay Jackson is clearly not high on their list. Casey Coleman doesn't have overwhelming stuff. Carpenter, like Jackson doesn't appear high on their list (otherwise they'd both be in camp), and Cashner is projected for relief.

4)Samardzija has enough velocity to be an effective starter

The rotation looks like:

Z

Dempster

Wells

Gorzelanny

Samardzija

No way Silva makes the rotation, and I'd be SHOCKED if he even made the team, but it'd be so Cub-like for that to happen. Marshall is too valuable as a swing man, and was very effective in relief last year, so that's how I see it shaking out until Lilly comes back, and once that happens, if Gorzelanny is just average, he'll be in the pen, and if Samardzija struggles, he goes to AAA to be a starter.

As for the pen, I fully expect Marmol, Caridad, Grabow, Marshall, Berg, and probably either Dolis or Mateo, then, unfortunately, another Hendry mistake for mediocre reliever.

For our bench, I fully expect it to be:

Hill, Fontenot/Baker, Nady, Blanco, and Fuld, and in my mind, that'd be a mistake too, but I digress....

Aaron,I agree about Shark, I just wondered how "panicked" the Cubs really are....after all,they expressed concerns over Guzman's health over the winter.

I don't know that much about Mateo...but Dolis would be fun to watch just for his heat. The only other change they MIGHT make is hold onto Parisi a little longer before giving him back to the Cards...but it's doubtful.

I really hope Diamond pitches himself into the mix before it's over.

Is it time to start the Kerry Wood talk again? Slezak thinks No.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/slezak/2091259,CST-SPT-carol09.article

I think, why not? If JH can work a deal, we'd all love to see him back. And wouldn't it be ironic if he could come back here and win it all this year?

Hey!!! I can dream, can't I?

See, that's what I'm talking about. Smoltz! I'm sure he wants to sign a 2 or more year contract and will probably hold out. I don't think he'll take a setup role either. He'd love Chicago, and I think we'd love him here. Also with Madux here. I just hope we are actually talking to him or his thief....I mean agent.

I just don't see Smoltz taking a setup role in a bullpen. Does anyone know what kind of contract he is looking for?

Cookachoo...Smoltz made 5.5 mill with the Red Sox last year (full season salary)& the Cards picked him up. So I imagine he's looking for close to that...pro-rated.

He really wants a starter's job...but said he would do either.

The thing is he may wait to see who breaks out into contender status and then sign with a good chance at the playoffs.

John G.- Yeah, we can all dream...but Paul Sullivan of the Trib said he started

to ask Hendry about Woods the other day...and Hendry's answer was " 10.5 million???" ...not to mention if Wood finishes 55 games this year...it vests an 11.5 million option for next year.

The short answer on Wood is too much dinero...not even considering which prospects Cleveland will try to extract.

Speaking of Soriano (sic): last year he hit 20 HR in 477 AB (522 Plate appearances). Here's the break down (sic):

April--7 hr. .284 BA .955 OBS

May--5 hr. .216 BA .657 OBS

June--2 hr. .198 BA .585 OBS

July--5 hr. .345 BA .992 OBS

Aug--1 hr. .185 BA .514 OBS

Sept--0 hr. .143 BA .286 OBS

If you recall, Lou gave Soriano some time off in the first part of July, and he started hitting in the later part.

My conclusion: he wore down and is now a parttime player like Jermaine Dye. Platoon him like Funko.

No wonder Lou is saying we need to carry 6 OF this year!

If only one of them - Sori or Dome could switch sides (actually, I'm sure Dome could man LF) then we'd have our platoon - a 30M$ two headed beast in Left Field!

Really tho, $$ aside, because we know it can't be justified their avg line could be something close to: 80/25/80/12 .270/.350/.440.

Then Nady plays everyday in RF (if/when healthy) and you have just 4 OF, a couple of which can switch positions.

I know that is stoopid/crazy talk, but tell me, is it crazier than carrying 5 flipping outfielders?

I've been thinking . . . if the Cubs are so set on adding a gallon can of gasoline to the back end of their bullpen, why not consider Scott Linebrink of the Sox? He blew another save yesterday and took the loss. That guy is awful! He could take right up where Kevin Gregg, A. Heilman and Neil Cotts left off. I'm thinking Kenny Williams is just going to dump his hide in the trash at the end of ST. Kenny way overpaid for that guy: 4 year $35 million dollar deal.

Look at Caridad. That guy gets the job done. Let him work in the 8th. And I'm with Suzy: Coleman and Russell ought to be given a chance, too. We're not going to pick up anyone of real value with the budget we have: we couldn't pay them anyway. Soriano (sic) got all the money.

Aaron: Soriano (sic) will have to hit below .200 in order to get benched. I think if he hit in the .189 level or so, the Cubs' would DL him, but he is not going to ride the bench if he can hit .220.

Rip, funny you mention Linebrink...yesterday on AM 670 the SCORE...

a White Sox fan suggested they dump

Linebrink on us "since the Cub's are so desperate for pen help."...I laughed....

the idea was so bad.

Rip,you're not really a Sox fan in disguise are you?

A Sox hater? Yes.

A Sox lover? No way, Jose. I root for them to lose. In Christian love, of course.

And here's the Sporting News' view concerning the Cubs' chances for 2010: http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20100309?sub_id=CYmp0bX8JP9VK&folio=CGI#pg28

It makes sense that the Cubs look inside the organization for bullpen help...the talent is there...it's just young.

All reports I've read says Coleman has shown pinpoint control...(Good for our hearts)...and Russell, as a starter has great stuff to begin with...but falls

apart in later innings...so the bullpen might be his eventual landing point anyway.

Before I comment further on these guys,

Neil, as one who has seen them in person

recently, it would be good to hear your

actual thoughts on possible young internal options for the pen.

I know you like to stick with the facts...but in this case, your thoughts

would be appreciated.

Welcome back...I'm glad you got a little recognition for all your hard work on Tim Sheridan's blog...(about time).

Levine did a nice writeup on Shark:

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs

Suzy, I think I kinda answered your questions in reponse to a comment from Aaron.

But let's see if I missed anything.

Of the young arms I saw, the only ones that made a positive impression were Casey Coleman, John Gaub and James Russell.

I really liked the way each of them threw the ball.

In spring training, the results do not matter to me, but throwing strikes and hitting spots are what I pay attention to.

Coleman, Gaub and Russell did that. I really liked Coleman's changeup. In the bullpen I saw, the catching barely moved and he hit the mitt. I do not think he can be a reliever, he just doesn't have over-powering stuff you would like coming into a game. He should be left as a closer.

James Russell and John Gaub did the same and Gaub has a very good fastball with nice movement. Both of those guys could be sleepers ... too bad they are southpaws.