Cubs Almost a .500 Team According to Baseball Prospectus

Baseball Prospectus recently updated their projections for the Twenty-Ten season … and the Cubs have gone from a 77-win team to an 80-win team in less than a month. PECOTA projected the Cubs to finish second in the National League Central Division with an 80-82 record, nine games behind the St. Louis Cardinals.

During an interview early last week, Lou Piniella pointed out that he feels the Cubs can win 90 games this season … if the team stays healthy and several players rebound from sub-par seasons.

Baseball Prospectus updated their depth charts based on information John Perrotto received from beat writers and what each team’s lineups could look like in April. Baseball Prospectus pointed out that PECOTA “is a system geared for the projection of individual players. It is not run for teams.”

The Depth Charts are playing time-weighted projections for each player, which builds up a team projection.

The early projections from PECOTA had the Cubs winning only 77 games, then a week later BP updated the Cubs record to 79-83. The latest has the Cubs posting an 80-82 record good enough for second place in the NL Central … but under .500 and out of the playoffs.

Here is how PECOTA sees the 2010 MLB Season playing out …

National League

East

  1. Philadelphia Phillies – 90-72
  2. Atlanta Braves – 84-78
  3. Florida Marlins – 82-80
  4. New York Mets – 77-85
  5. Washington Nationals – 76-86

Central

  1. St. Louis Cardinals – 89-73
  2. Chicago Cubs – 80-82
  3. Cincinnati Reds – 77-85
  4. Houston Astros – 76-86
  5. Milwaukee Brewers – 76-86
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates – 72-90

West

  1. Colorado Rockies – 87-75
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks – 86-76
  3. San Francisco Giants – 82-80
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers – 81-81
  5. San Diego Padres – 73-89

American League

East

  1. Boston Red Sox – 95-67
  2. Tampa Bay Rays – 93-69
  3. New York Yankees – 90-72
  4. Baltimore Orioles – 79-83
  5. Toronto Blue Jays – 69-93

Central

  1. Minnesota Twins – 81-81
  2. Chicago White Sox – 80-82
  3. Cleveland Indians – 79-83
  4. Detroit Tigers – 79-83
  5. Kansas City Royals – 74-88

West

  1. Texas Rangers – 85-77
  2. Seattle Mariners – 83-79
  3. Oakland A’s – 82-80
  4. Los Angeles Angels – 75-87

The Cubs’ 2010 Cactus League opener is Thursday against the Oakland A’s at HoHoKam Park … Randy Wells will face Trevor Cahill to start the first game of the spring.

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