Baseball Prospectus recently updated their projections for the Twenty-Ten season ... and the Cubs have gone from a 77-win team to an 80-win team in less than a month. PECOTA projected the Cubs to finish second in the National League Central Division with an 80-82 record, nine games behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
During an interview early last week, Lou Piniella pointed out that he feels the Cubs can win 90 games this season ... if the team stays healthy and several players rebound from sub-par seasons.
Baseball Prospectus updated their depth charts based on information John Perrotto received from beat writers and what each team's lineups could look like in April. Baseball Prospectus pointed out that PECOTA "is a system geared for the projection of individual players. It is not run for teams."
The early projections from PECOTA had the Cubs winning only 77 games, then a week later BP updated the Cubs record to 79-83. The latest has the Cubs posting an 80-82 record good enough for second place in the NL Central ... but under .500 and out of the playoffs.
Here is how PECOTA sees the 2010 MLB Season playing out ...
National League
East
- Philadelphia Phillies - 90-72
- Atlanta Braves - 84-78
- Florida Marlins - 82-80
- New York Mets - 77-85
- Washington Nationals - 76-86
Central
- St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73
- Chicago Cubs - 80-82
- Cincinnati Reds - 77-85
- Houston Astros - 76-86
- Milwaukee Brewers - 76-86
- Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90
West
- Colorado Rockies - 87-75
- Arizona Diamondbacks - 86-76
- San Francisco Giants - 82-80
- Los Angeles Dodgers - 81-81
- San Diego Padres - 73-89
American League
East
- Boston Red Sox - 95-67
- Tampa Bay Rays - 93-69
- New York Yankees - 90-72
- Baltimore Orioles - 79-83
- Toronto Blue Jays - 69-93
Central
- Minnesota Twins - 81-81
- Chicago White Sox - 80-82
- Cleveland Indians - 79-83
- Detroit Tigers - 79-83
- Kansas City Royals - 74-88
West
- Texas Rangers - 85-77
- Seattle Mariners - 83-79
- Oakland A's - 82-80
- Los Angeles Angels - 75-87
The Cubs' 2010 Cactus League opener is Thursday against the Oakland A's at HoHoKam Park ... Randy Wells will face Trevor Cahill to start the first game of the spring.
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The new projections must have been done before the Cards added Lopez. I see Lou got his 90 win prediction from an astrologist.
Take a look at this paragraph on Lopez via the Sporting News. It is on the left hand side of the page. Sounds scary for the Cubs.
http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20100301/?pg=32&pm=1&u1=friend
How about that? We're gaining ground already...and havn't even played a game!!!
Any of these preseason projections are purely for winter weary fan's entertainment.
If you give them all a 10 game variable,
(plus/minus)...we now fall into Lou's projection...at the high end.
In any case, I don't put much stock in them...purely entertainment.
Yes, it's way too early. I'll need to see how the team shapes up in ST before I make my projections. But I will say that the Reds Chapman looks tough so far, and that the Cubs will have plenty of competition from everyone in the division since I think they are all improved.
Rip, I really like the Red's as a sleeper
team if their pitching holds up...if they get a new manager...look out ...they could be last season's Rockies.
Felipe Lopez was definitely a great acquisition for the Cards...he plugs
a lot of holes for them.
Our contractual inflexibility really hurts in an area like this...this year.
I agree with you 100%. I really am starting to believe that the Z might actually win 16-20 games this year. That weight loss has me starting to believe he might have enough determination to do it.
I don't expect Lilly to pitch the first two months.
If the Cubs are to make a run at it, we really need Lou to have his head on this year, too.
I agree on both Z and Lou.
IF Z is going to finally reach his potential...this IS the year...he's never going to have a better shot at putting everything together.
Lou wants to be remembered well...in a
contract/retirement year...I'm confident
we'll get the best of Lou...what that currently is...I don't know....I hoping for a much better year out of him....
he won't have the negative distraction of dealing with Milton on a daily basis...sohe should be able to channel
his energy into more positive things.
I was visiting the Cub's official web site when the auto play video came on, and the commentator said that Zambrano only lost 15 pounds. I guess that's OK if he replaced fat with muscle, but the spring training pictures I saw, still showed him with a double chin. Now, if he had dropped 40 pounds like Soto did, then I would be more convinced of his new dedication.
Gary...He spent his first winter here in Chicago working out...to brave a Chicago winter here convinced me....of his dedication...but his problem has been more about focus and control ofhis emotions than anything else.
As Far as Lilly goes...I agree...and then it will take him some time to pitch into form...It's also positive that it's a contract year for him.
We have a lot SP talent on the farm...the key tothe Cubs is utilizing the BEST starting 5...not the contractually expedient starting five...
I do expect one, maybe 2 new starters to emerge in the latter part of the season.
It will be important...not just for this year...but for upcoming seasons....
This will probably come from the group of
Diamond/Coleman/Cashner/Russell/Jackson.
To be honest, I already like this season better than last...even if we don't project that high.
Last year's projections were just Cubs' fans looking through rose colored glasses at the team. A friend of mine who loves the Brewers told me often last winter (before the season started), "If I were a Cubs' fan, I'd be angry at the GM. He's dismantled a winning team and filled the roster with junk." Of course being a Brewer's fan he rejoiced at JHendry's moves.
Let's hope Diamond returns to health. He has Woody and Prior potential, but also has their injury problems as well. Coleman has for the most part flown under the radar. We have not heard much about him other than a few mentions, the one standing out is by Ryno - comparing him to Maddux. Let's hope Maddux spends some time with him this spring.
I believe Jackson is still a couple years away. I would love to see Cashner take over Marmol's old role in the back end of the pen.
As for teams in the division that could make a run, I only see the Cards being as the true challenger to the Cubs this year. Yes the Reds have some young talent ready for breakouts, but they have one big key element that will destroy them - Dusty Baker at the helm. He will ruin the arms of Volquez and Cueto.
The Pirates rotation is a joke, and in years past they have always had that one hitter who is a pain for the Cubs, but they don't have that this year. Yes they have some youngsters in McCutcheon and Milledge but they could easily lose a 100 games this year.
The Brewers have a few issues of their own. They have a mediocre rotation. They are innings eaters that will toss up some 4 era's, but no #1 or #2 starter to match up against some of the league's bests. I also believe Gomez will be a detriment to that clubhouse like Mr. Yahtzee was for us last season. The Brewers have shown in the past that they fall apart when the going gets tough. Think Johnny Estrada in 2007's blowout with the manager, when the Cubs were hot on their tail for the division.
I believe the Cardinals season rides squarely on the shoulders of Carpenter. If he goes down with injury which happens more often than not, the Cards sink with him. I also, think having Holliday in that clubhouse along with Pujols might be a problem also. It's been Pujols team for years since McGwire left, now they brought in a talent who was also the centerpiece of the Rockies for years. Those two egos will have to coexist all year long for the Cards to stay loose.
Woody, re Cashner...most scouting reports I've read seem to agree that Cashner is ultimately destined for the pen...but the Cubs seem to still wish to
keep in a starters role.
The other day...Arizona Phil said James Russell...was far above the other pitchers. It's extremely early...but the thought occured to me that Russell's mo
as a starter...was great stuff for a few innings and then we wears down....just a thought...but we have to include him as a pen candidate as well...he's likely a year or 2 away...but that potential is also there....especially if he continues to have a good spring.
As reigning "co-record guess guy", I'll point out that the Cubs record depends on how that first game goes. If they win it, then I think they go 81-81. But if the lose that first, which I hope to God they learned their lesson on that, they'll go 90-72 and win the division. Remember: don't be fooled how they look in the first game of the season! Starting off 0-1 works a lot better for them than starting 1-0! The co-record guess guy has spoken.
The "experts" are just guessing; allow me to join them. I don't know a hell of a lot about it, but neither do they. By year's end, let's see how they compare with a retired English teacher.
NL only, Neil--maybe next week I'll get Ronnie Woo Woo's picks for the other league.
National League
East
Atlanta Braves 94-68
Philadelphia Phillies - 80-82
Florida Marlins - 77-85
New York Mets - 77-85
Washington Nationals - 73-89
Central
Chicago Cubs 90-72
St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73
Cincinnati Reds - 77-85
Houston Astros - 66-96
Milwaukee Brewers - 79-83
Pittsburgh Pirates - 72-90
West
Colorado Rockies - 86-76*
Arizona Diamondbacks - 86-76
San Francisco Giants - 81-81
Los Angeles Dodgers - 79-83
San Diego 72-90
*Rockies win one game playoff, go on to best the Cubs 3 straight but lose seven game series to Braves for the pennant.
Ronnie Woo-Woo agrees and says he wants to pick the junior circuit next week.
Come fall, we'll see whose guesses come closest to reality.
Projections? Stats? Whatever!!!
I agree with Suzy on this. They are just winter fodder. Too many things can happen over such a long season. Injuries and weather are just a few of the things that can upset the projection/stats figures. One of the weather statistics was really strange last year in that the wind blew in more than out at Wrigley. That is very unusual for a summer in Chicago. How many of those flyballs would turn into home runs with the wind blowing out? No one knows. And we all know what injuries can do to a team (Ramirez, etc.).
We can see just from last year how much team unity means over a long season. Way, way too many variables in a 162 game season. Just play the games one at a time and try to win each and every game. Sounds simple doesn't it? GO CUBS!
Personally, I see the Cardinals coming back to the pack this year. There were a lot of things went well for them last year. CArpenter, Wainwright, Holliday, Pinero (who is now gone), Franklin all had career years.No way that happens again.
And what if big Albert gets hurt ? or Carpenter, who is now 36 with history of arm problems ? Franklin was terrible at end of year. They are relying on Penny as their 3rd starter, who hasn't been good in years.
I'm not sure why all the experts are picking them as a slam dunk. I don't see it. But hey, go for it. Doesn't mean a thing in March :-)
Cardinals may regress. . . I'm not yet prepared to fully agree with you since I haven't seen the team in ST. But I do agree Franklin, Carpenter, Wainwright are due to regress this year.
Don't forget Holiday. He was out of his mind when he came to cardinals, hitting .353. No way he keeps that up.
Especially if he faces Silva !!! :)
I'm getting sick of new predictions every week. We all know that no one knows how a season is going to turn out until September...
April cannot come soon enough
Amen, calicub
I HATE St. Louis, and I hope to God they blow it. I am sick and tired of hearing about them and how wonderful Larussa is and the oragnization is. Bottom lkine is McGwire is a cheater and I spent lots of money watching that poor excuse as a baseball player let alone a human battle with Sammy with the HR's. The icing on the cake is when those SDt. Louis morons at their convention gave him a standing ovation at their "convention". I would rather have them get dismanteled and do horrible and perhaps choke, than the Cub's winning the division.
Hey Neil,
Do you happen to have Penny's stats against us while he was in the NL? I happen to remember him in the Dodgers series pitching well against us, and times with the Marlins as well.
Woody, like Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, Brad Penny has done a good job against the Cubs, dominant at times .. please don't look at the W-L record.
In 10 starts, Penny is 3-3 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. The Cubs have hit .277 against him, but like Davis the Cubs get their hits, just don't score runs against him.
You could be thinking of Penny's game against the Cubs in Sept of 2006, while he was a Dodger.
Granted the Cubs lineup was horrible, but this is the game that Greg Maddux called from the dugout. Penny tossed 7 innings of shutout ball ... 7 hits, 0 walks and 6 strikeouts.
In a short report to the Cub Reporter...Arizona Phil said Thomas Diamond drilled Soriano in the ribs with a fastball today...Soriano's OK.
-Diamond pitched well other than that.
-Blanco smashed a "HR" off Mitch Atkins.
-Colvin os hitting well.
-Blake Parker/Mitch Atkins were hit hard.
-Parisi looked good
-Patton had control issues woth his curve.