The incredibly long off-season that began on October 5 is almost over. Pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park in Mesa, AZ in seven days ... and the first Spring Training game is on March 4 against the Oakland A's, just 22 days to go.
Jim Hendry spoke with the media on Tuesday as the truck carrying the Cubs gear departed for Arizona. The Cubs' GM provided updates on Ryan Theriot's arbitration case, Ted Lilly and Starlin Castro.
Here's more with a week to go ... including the latest from the mill. Plus, two new iPhone apps for the Faithful that feature the CCO.
Chatting with Bruce Levine
The always-informative Bruce Levine held his weekly chat (for the last time in the off-season) Tuesday afternoon on ESPN Chicago. Here are the highlights:
- Bruce Levine thinks Starlin Castro could "cover an awful lot more ground" at short than Ryan Theriot ... while Ryan Theriot would give the Cubs an upgrade at second base.
- The Cubs are pursuing trades to add a primary right-handed setup man to the bullpen ... to take pressure off pitchers such as Jeff Gray, Esmailin Caridad and Angel Guzman.
- The Cubs never had (or have) interest in Kris Benson. According to Levine, that was a member of the media doing a favor for an agent.
- The only way the Cubs will add a pitcher before (or during) Spring Training is via a trade.
- No one seems to know what to expect out of Carlos Silva.
- Jeff Gray and John Gaub are two relievers to keep an eye on this spring. The Cubs like Gray's arm (he is a right handed pitcher) and Gaub offers a power arm from the left side.
- The Cubs are not looking at Jeff Samardzija as a reliever, but solely as a starter. Many in the organization, including Samardzija, feel his progress has been hurt from going from the pen to the rotation.
- The Cubs feel Jeff Baker is a part-time player and a viable one at second and third.
- Bruce Levine would offer Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly short extensions ... and he feels they would accept extensions to remain in Chicago.
- Levine labeled Ted Lilly an "important clubhouse contributor" and agreed that a two-year, $20 million contract sounded about right for 'The Bulldog.'
- Chad Tracy will compete with Micah Hoffpauir for a spot on the Cubs' bench. Tracy is looking to serve as the Cubs' backup at first and third base.
- Jermaine Dye balked at the Cubs offer, one Levine labeled as a "solid offer." The Cubs also did not like Dye saying if he could not get the contract he was looking for then he would retire.
During his chat, Bruce Levine threw out his Opening Day lineup for the Cubs:
- Kosuke Fukudome - RF
- Ryan Theriot - 2B
- Derrek Lee - 1B
- Aramis Ramirez - 3B
- Marlon Byrd - CF
- Alfonso Soriano - LF
- Geovany Soto - C
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Carlos Zambrano - P
More from Bruce Levine
Bruce Levine spoke with Jim Hendry after the truck carrying the Cubs gear departed for Mesa on Tuesday. Here are a few of the highlights ... click here for the full report:
- Cubs are always on the lookout to add depth to their roster.
- Hendry likes his club.
- The Cubs have more players coming into camp from within their organization than ever before.
- There will be opportunities for the Cubs "young players to make the club."
- The Cubs have "some ideas" of players they would like to scout in camp.
- Would look at adding players before camp begins if "something got going."
- Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano should be able to go "full throttle" when position players report.
- Hendry said Rudy Jaramillo would be "a major positive influence" on Alfonso Soriano.
Starlin Castro
Jim Hendry discussed Starlin Castro during his time with the media on Tuesday. Hendry said, "Ideally, Castro should be given an opportunity (in Spring Training), but he'll probably will need more time."
The Cubs are not looking to put pressure on the soon-to-be 20-year old.
Starlin Castro has been compared to Elvis Andrus in recent days. Andrus succeeded in Texas after being given the starting job at short at a very young age. According to Levine, the Cubs should be better defensively with Castro at short ... and a better team overall, even if he hits .250.
Adding an Arm
The Cubs continue to look for an arm to add to the backend of the bullpen. According to Bruce Levine, the Cubs have been talking with the Blue Jays about Jason Frasor (the Cubs feel Frasor is more of a proven commodity than a few of their internal options) as well as Scott Downs ... and the Padres about Luke Gregerson and possibly Heath Bell.
Levine also reported "according to league sources, the Cubs have had contact with any number of teams in pursuit of solidifying their middle relief situation."
The Cubs could trade for an arm or go to camp with the pitchers they already have on the roster.
Ted Lilly
The return of Ted Lilly was another topic discussed on Tuesday with the media. According to a report from ESPN Chicago, the Cubs do not have a "clear-cut date" for Ted Lilly's return ... but they are not going to rush him.
Reports have suggested that Lilly would not return from off-season shoulder surgery to late April or early May. Hendry spoke with Mark O'Neal (Cubs trainer) and he indicated Lilly "is coming along just fine.
Hendry threw out a date of April 15 but indicated the Cubs would not rush him back to the mound. Hendry pointed out that Lilly's surgery was a "real minor procedure."
Ryan Theriot
The Cubs and Ryan Theriot appear headed for arbitration. According to multiple reports on Tuesday, the Cubs and Theriot have not spoken "in a while." Jim Hendry discussed the situation with the media and is not optimistic about avoiding an arbitration hearing with his starting shortstop.
Hendry said he was O.K. going to a hearing with Theriot if something is not worked out before hand.
According to Bruce Levine's sources, Theriot's hearing is scheduled for sometime during the weekend of February 20 in St. Petersburg, Fla.
iPhone Apps featuring ChicagoCubsOnline
With the baseball season approaching, two new apps for the iPhone or iPod Touch are available through iTunes for the Faithful ... featuring the RSS feed of ChicagoCubsOnline.
Provides stats, opinions and news links to everything Cubs Baseball. This app is well designed and user friendly. The stat link should be extremely useful during the season for those on the go.
The news section is well organized with previews to articles on the net ... including the latest from the CCO.
The cost of the app is $2.99 and well worth it.
FanMisery.com Index Project - Chicago Cubs
FanPulse is a free app and allows you to discuss games with friends before, during and after (unless you are on the CCO, of course).
If you can't watch a game, FanPulse will deliver scores and news sent straight to your phone ... including the latest from the CCO.
Former ESPN, Yardbarker and Digg.com employees founded FanPulse.
ChicagoCubsOnline recommends and endorses both apps for the iPhone ...
Well, that's the latest ... and I am sticking to it!
Follow the CCO on Twitter ...
Make sure to check the CCO's twitter feed during the day. With the pitchers and catchers reporting soon, news and notes will start popping up that are worthy of a mention but not front page news. The CCO will tweet what we hear, of course from reliable sources.
If you don't have an account on the CCO ... sign-up for one to share your thoughts and interact with the rest of the Faithful.
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Looking at Bruce Levine's opening day lineup, makes me believe more and more that Theriot is our starting 2B, that is why JH hasn't gone after any 2B. But if Castro is not ready, then Blanco is the man to keep Theriot at 2B (where is better suited). Blanco will give the Cubs the better range, similar to Castro, Bruce is talking about, and yes Blanco and Castro will make more errors, as they will get to a lot more balls and try to make plays on balls that would normally be singles. If and when Castro is ready to take over SS, then Blanco goes to the bench. Late in a game can you imagine Castro/Blanco up the middle. I can guarantee you Marmol can imagine that.
If Jeff Baker is the super sub on the bench, with Theriot and Blanco and maybe Castro, there is no need or room for Fontenot. If they can't trade him, he will be released saving his $1 million (actually $600,000, as the replacement player will be at league minimum).
Tracy and Hoffpauir is simple if Tracy is healthy as he is more versatile playing 1B/3B.
The bench still looks to me like this if Castro is on the team.
Xavier Nady
Chad Tracy
Jeff Baker
Koyie Hill
Andres Blanco
If Castro goes to AAA, then there is spot open for a super utility player, that can play both SS and 2B and that can play OF or Sam Fuld to be a defensive replacement in the OF. Blanco will get some time in the OF in ST to see if he can also fill in the OF.
Interesting on the bullpen front as the following are locks
Marmol
Guzman
Grabow
Marshall (if not traded)
Add in Gray and Caridad
That leaves one spot. That tells me that Silva will start the year on the DL or they will try to get him to accept the assignment to AAA (Neil, can they do this? Obviously if he has to pass through waivers with his contract attached, no one will claim him, but if he has the option to take the money and run, he will run, well actually more like a stroll.) This also make me feel like Parisi will have to earn a spot on the team, unlike Patton last year, who was given a spot.
If Gaub proves ready and able to pitch in the majors that makes Marshall tradeable. If not I like Gorzellany and Marshall on the team. Gorzellany in the rotation and Marshall in the pen.
News on Lilly makes me think that we may not need the extra starter that much. My first dates for a 5th starter, starts on April 19th for 3 straight turns through the rotation. Even in May there is only a need for 4 starts from the #5 and 3 are in the 2nd half of the month.
Did anyone feel the earthquake?
I live in Rockton, IL and a 4.3 earthquake centered outside of Dekalb, IL hit a little after 4. People up to Beloit, Wi and Lake Summerset, IL have been reporting feeling the Quake. I think I slept right through it. Western burbs might have felt it.
Silva is out of options. I think you could be right, he might start the year on the DL.
He would have to be put on waivers to be sent down.
Wouldn't the Cubs love it if someone
pulled a "Kenny Williams" (Rios claim)
on Silva?....I know...unlikely.
Maybe he'll surprise us.
-Just read that @ 20 players from the major's roster already working out there.
-a good omen.
No matter what,Castro should start at AAA
at least until the weather warms up. The
kid shouldn't have to deal with inclement
weather...while adjusting to majors for the first time.
Tony...no quakes felt here in the SW burbs.
Tony, here is a great reference ...
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2003/01/transactions-glossary.html
Of course, from Cot's
Neil - If I read it right, they could designate for assignment Silva to AAA, he would have to pass through waivers, which he would fly right on by. He could then refuse the assignment and then become a free agent or accept the assignment and go to AAA. Either way he gets paid, obviously. There is one spot where a team can send the player to the minors without the players permission one time in their career. It would be interesting to know if this is an option. Otherwise I see Silva being on the DL to start the year and then accepting a rehab assignment to AAA.
Tony, I think you and I are on a the same page ... and I did a poor job of explaning myself.
The Cubs have the options you described with Silva. They be designating him for assignment, once he cleared waivers and was removed from the 40-man roster he could re-sign a minor league deal and pitch in Triple-A.
Tony, I just remembered what Jose Contreras did last year. He agreed to go down to Triple-A ... so that is a possibility.
http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=cws&year=2009&month=5#month=5&year=2009&team_id=145
I hope they really do not push Lilly and Castro. If Levine is correct and they offer a 2 yr extension, they better not screw up Lilly now. Also, I would like to se Castro srat in AAA with Sandberg and let the 2 of them work together a bit and then let Sandberg make the call as to when Castro is ready.
Neil, How about a Droid App??
I know this sounds like a broken record, but I am working on a mobile version of the CCO.
The apps I mentioned today, we did not develop.
Sorry, I did not know this :(
I wouldn't extend Lilly at this time. I would wait until the offseason. This is a big year for the Cubs minor league system, to see if it can produce some players to replace high priced vets. I like Lilly and if he is healthy and has another solid year, a 2 year under $10 million per year would be good. But, if we can replace him with one of our younger guys we can reallocate the dollars to another area. Even if it isn't in the next offseason. 2011/12 offseason is loaded with first baseman. Since we don't seem to have a future replacement for Lee in our system, we will need to spend dollars to bring one to Chicago. It would be nice to have the dollars to go after one of the best.
are we really going to go with 1 LH bat this year?
If we dont have at least 1 Middle of the order LH bat in the lineup, this team will not be that good.
Lets hope for middle of the season acquisition or a brad snyder pushing Fukudome out.
I'm with you on that...either Fukudome or Byrd (if, in the likely event he fails) out in favor of Snyder. The lineup could go one of two ways (with Fukudome at CF or RF):
Fukudome-CF/RF
Theriot-2B
Lee-1B
ARAM-3B
Snyder-CF/RF
Soriano-LF
Soto-C
Castro-SS
bench: Hill, Nady, Tracy, Baker, Byrd
Right now, the only lefties on the team are Fukudome and Fontenot, and Fontenot might not be on the team come opening day. If Tracy makes the team, then Fontenot goes, in my opinion, so the net result is 2 lefty bats...3 if you consider Hill being a switch hitter.
That is NOT a recipe for success. Consider that in 2008, we had Edmonds and Fukudome in the starting lineup, and on the bench, we had Fontenot, Ward, and Pie, plus at varying times, we also had Hoffpauir and Eric Patterson. So, in general, we had 4 lefty bats on our roster at any time, and as many as 5 at once if I recall.
That's why I thought Ankiel would've been the better bet than Byrd, and it's why I think we still ought to go after Blalock in the event that Tracy isn't healthy. If Tracy isn't healthy, then we're REALLY screwed.
I know we also have Bryan LaHair invited to camp, and perhaps he impresses, making everything a moot point, but it doesn't appear that LaHair and Snyder will be given a true shot to make the team. I still hope and pray that we can find a way to get rid of Soriano or Fukudome. I know it's the longest of shots to do that....and I dare say that a last resort might be hoping for injury, which I am sure to draw the ire of some Cubs fans with that comment...but it's true. We were a better team without Soriano in the lineup at times, because it gave Hoffpauir and Fox more AB's, and I believe the same would hold true for LaHair and Snyder.
Think about it for a second...LaHair will be 27 next year and Snyder will be 28. Fukudome will be 33, and Soriano will be 34 (though it's presumed he's older than that). Players like LaHair and Snyder that are in their prime age years are far more valuable than aging veterans like Soriano and Fukudome. I'd much rather open up the season with a lineup like this:
Castro-SS
Theriot-2B
Lee-1B
ARAM-3B
Snyder-RF
Byrd-CF
LaHair-RF
Soto-C
bench: Hill, Nady, Blalock, Baker, Blanco
DL: Soriano, Fukudome...or released...or traded to some sucker...LOL
Yes, we could hope Synder even makes the team, but he won't. Why? Because Funko makes the $48 million, that's why. So, FORGETABOUTIT. He won't even be on the team, even if he hits .400 in ST in 100 AB. FORGETABOUTIT.
Blanco: folks, his OBS last year was .644. That's less than Soto's .702 and Fontenot's .677. That's right, people. He's worse than Fonenot. Bobby Scales was better, too: .723. The only infielder whose OBS was lower was . . . Aaron Miles.
Hoffpauir didn't make the team out of St in 2008 even though he hit .400 and rocketed balls over and off of the fence every-single-day. It's the Eugene Contract, baby; it's the contract. JHendry cannot keep his job for 10 seconds after admitting that a $400k Synder is a better player than a $138 million dollar baby stone hands in LF. Or that Synder is better than a $48 million dollar bust in RF. Or later this year, that Synder is better than the $15 million dollar, 250 LF Bird (sic) in CF.
Indeed, its the Eugene Contract, baby. It's the contract that determines the roster.
Don't believe me? Just watch were Carlos Silva lands on Opening Day. He'll be on the team.
Rip - Nobody is saying Blanco is the next All-Star. But you are also using a small sample size from last year to state your point. Blanco has shown improvement from year to year. He is also another LH bat in the lineup as he switch hits. I've always said, he needs to earn it in ST, that I wouldn't hand it to him and at best case I would start him 4-5 games a week, if he shows capable.
"Sweet Lou" is optimistic:
http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20100210?sub_id=CYmp0bX8JP9VK&folio=CGI#pg13
"Sweet Lou" says Castro is AAA bound. Position players are almost all set. But we have a spot for a few young pitchers to make the team. Smardzija gets the inside track to start in Lilly's place. That's what L-O-U said.
http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20100210?sub_id=CYmp0bX8JP9VK&folio=CGI#pg13
Sometimes I wonder if some people on this site even read the stats for these prospects they hype up to come in and play over our veterans...
You people are clamoring for Brad Snyder over Fukudome?? I agree that Fukudome hasn't nearly lived up to the hype or the money but compared to the average major league outfielder he is more productive as far as getting on base and producing the opportunity to score runs... Nor has he been a better decision than simply keeping Felix Pie around would have been. BUT- Brad Snyder?
Read the guys minor league stats- what are you talking about?
Since 2005 in the MINORS he hasn't hit over .278, had over 18 homeruns (over 14 since 2006), and his career on base percentage is horrible due to his incredibly high amount of strikeouts and very low amount of walks. Why in the world would we want to replace Fuku (who bats left handed also) for this non-proven verteran minor leaguer.
People need to understand on this site that just because minor leaguers are called prospects doesn't mean they are all All-Stars...
Poor Castro is so hyped that unless he walks in and hits like A-Rod and fields like Jeter people will be disappointed. Lay off the poor kid. Hopefully we leave Hak-Ju Lee alone before we scare him back to Korea because he looks like a player...
Sorry for the long post and I am just as frustrated about watching Soriano (who is absolutely horrible) lolly gagging around left field and not listening to the coaching staff as you guys are. It doesn't take extensive baseball knowledge to see that the reason he can't hit the slider from a right or protect the fastball on the outer half is because the idiot stands four feet too far from the plate in the box. Does he not see the other guys footprints when he steps in there are 2 feet closer to the plate than his. At least he doesn't have to battle the loose dirt from the other guys cleats.
It is also sad that Ricketts is more concerned about bathrooms than spending 1.5million to sign Lopez to play second a lead off... With our budget what is another 1.5 mill? Really? Get rid of Fontenot who we don't need and save that 1mill and he costs almost nothing...
I agree with almost everything that you say.
* Why is there so much love for Snyder? It seems like some of the guys on this site want to procreate with him.
* It is great to see the possibility of a young guy with some game get a chance to start (Castro), but I sense another let down is on the horizon.
* Soriano, needs to switch to a lighter bat and step closer in the box.
* As for Fontenot, we really have no other choice in house.
I preferred Hudson, but Lopez might be the better option at this time.
I don't know Jim..Is he cute?
lol
Jim, watch the locker room talk re Snyder....I'm blushing. :)
I want to point out one thing about Soriano's stance at the plate.
He never changed where he stands; i.e. whether he stands four feet away from the plate or not is a non-issue.
Last week, I wondered what went wrong with old Fonzi last year, and played scout. Used whatever remained of my mlb.tv subscription (due-to-end before our guys report to camp):
- picked one starting pitcher that Sori bats well on average, career-wise; watch all their duels
- and picked another starting pitcher whom Sori hits bad on average, watch
- Compare what he did against them 2008 and 2009
I picked Joel Pineiro (49atbats, .327/.365/.592) and Derek Lowe (.250/.263/.446, 56 AB). This is good because both throw sinkers.
Initially, I found out when Fonzi hits, he has a straight back. And he can hit however low the ball was, and whatever the kind of pitch it is.
When he swings and misses, he bends his back; his front shoulder is also slightly low compared to when he makes good contact.
I also noticed Soriano could stretch quite far in 2008 and still stayed with a straight back and his shoulder on top during contact, however weak the ball flew. He couldn't stay straight more in 2009.
My guess is bat speed. He couldn't follow the ball more in 2009 because Fonzi relies A LOT on his waist to carry his whole body rotation. When he's slow at following the ball, he'll stretch too much and bent, thus lost the balance.
2 cents. Quality not assured.
Excellent analysis!
Rudy has talked about getting Soriano more balanced this spring. He has indicated Soriano was out in front and has not been recognizing pitches in time.
Interesting. Is Rudy's observation on print (link?), or was he on a show and told you (and every other fan whom concerned)?
The closest I could find online is this:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1031701/index.htm
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2010/01/cubsconvention2_2.php
Here are a few of the notes I took from the convention. As for another source, sorry I do not have that.
I have heard him several times discuss Soriano's problems.
Hmm. This looks like what Rudy described in 2004 (in that SI article I found). But again, fans don't usually hear the details. Like, if the problem is the waist, then what could he do? It could be a sign of aging.
I don't really know where Sori's slowing of batspeed comes from. It could be way before he fully transfers the load through his waist. But like Suzy mentioned below, those problems like his repeating leg injury (that can take away his power at bat) and bat speed (i.e. through waist) are not small "fix."
Can Rudy spell some magic? Polish the ware a bit, so it's sharp and shining again? Or would he need to turn ash to gold? If so, it's always risky to change a major part of Fonzi's swing. Afterall, he had much success in the past with that way...
Dorasaga, I finally read the link you posted.
The comments Rudy made then about Soriano are alomst identical to the ones he's made this winter ... just six years later. Jaramillo has talked about his knee injury having a big impact on his poor season as well.
One of the big stories as Spring Training nears is Soriano and how he will respond to being back with Jaramillo.
Again, great spot-on scouting report yesterday. Thank you for posting.
Great points about prospects.
Soriano, though has alwasy been known for standing on top of the plate, daring the pitcher to throw inside.
Applause
Umm Derek Jeter has the worst fielding rating for any shortstop in the league. So if Castro doesn't field like Jeter all the better.
Please somebody explain to me how getting rid of Fontenot saves us 1 million. I thought if we released him we would only save the minimum salary and that was if another team grabed him...
On the hype thing of our prospects...I believe that if they get ruined because they can't deal with too much high expectations...they were meant to be mediocre anyway. Could you guys picture Ryan Braun or Hanley or Prince or Lincecum not do well because of the high expectations? Would Smardija be ready to blossom if he had more AAA time? I don't believe so, in fact his only good time came in his first year with the MLB club. Miguel Cabrera and many others pan out since the beggining because they were good all along. Do you see the over hyped Alex Gordon getting better with another year of AAA? NOPE...This kids die for a shot at the bigs and they have to be mentally ready when they get that shot, I don't care if they are 20 or 30 years old. This is baseball, you need to be good and you need to get lucky. Castro and other hyped prospects might be young and additional time in AAA would not hurt for sure, but nothing prepares a prospect for Mayor league better than playing MLB PERIOD.
The manager, however, does need to be patient and if you are good enough it will show.
I don't have time to find it right now, but players under x amount of years contracts are not guaranteed. I believe it is anyone that is 0-3 years and 4-6 year arbitration eligibles those contracts are not guaranteed. But if the Cubs were to offer Theriot a 3 year deal, that would be guaranteed.
Neil - do you know more of the specifics. I know it is probably on Cot's, though.
As for Fontenot, it would save actually $600,000 as the replacement would be at least $400,000.
Tony, you are right. Those contracts are not guaranteed. The player can still be cut with the club paying a portion of the contract (pro-rated).
Here ya go ...
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/important_dates.jsp
Thanks for the info. to both.
Hey, the Cubs could save all kinds of money. Just cut Theriot (after he wins arby) and Fontenot, and play Blanco and Scales.
I know your taking it a step further, but -
Theriot is tradeable, Fontenot is probably not.
Theriot has a role to play. Fontenot does not.
If Fontenot comes back and starts being Little Babe Ruth again, he has a spot, but I don't think that is going to happen.
By the way, if Theriot and Fontenot were both gone, they could sign Aaron's favorite Felipe Lopez and not raise the total payroll level. Then you would have Lopez, Blanco, Castro, Baker to play up the middle.
I'm actually excited about moving Theriot to second base. Give Castro some time in AA/AAA, and let Blanco start. He may not hit a ton, but I will absolutely take his defense. Don't forget that moving Theriot to second also takes a bat out of Fontenot's hands...I will take great defense and average hitting up the middle any day.
As for the bullpen, I like the idea of a lot of young arms fighting it out in ST. We have good young power arms for the pen. Obviously they are not proven, but I think we could have a good (enough) pen with these arms.
If Castro starts in AAA (Which would probably be the best for him)
I'd like to see Theriot starting at SS and Baker at 2nd base.
Baker may or maynot be a full time player but he deserves a shot based on last year.
He also could be our next Derosa,
Any guesses as to next year's roster? Me thinks it will consist of something like this:
Z
Dempster
Lilly
Wells
Samardzija
C-Soto
1B-LaHair (even though I know the Ricketts love Lee, and this is assuming LaHair has another solid year at AAA)
2B-Castro
SS-Hak Ju Lee (assuming he continues success)
3B-ARAM
LF-Soriano
CF-Brett Jackson
RF-Brad Snyder
bench: W. Castillo, Baker, Fukudome, Byrd, Flaherty/LeMahieu
*Cubs will most likely attempt to trade Byrd, Fukudome, Theriot, among others. Snyder is RF, keeping the seat warm for Burke, who, if he continues success from this year, will be at AA or AAA.
The lineup would be:
Lee-left
Castro-right
Jackson-left
ARAM-right
LaHair-left
Soriano-right
Snyder-left
Soto-right
That lineup would be VERY tough to face, based on the balance of it, and power from Jackson, ARAM, LaHair, Soriano, Snyder, and Soto, all of whom have 20+hr track records and/or potential.
The fact is, with the Cubs, they never think outside the box like this, and it frustrates me to no end. Why in the world would you extend an aging guy like Lee for yet another season? Why sign a marginal (and 30+yr old) guy like Byrd to a 3 year deal, blocking young guys even more? I'm actually more okay with the Fukudome signing than I am the Byrd signing. The reason is simple. The Cubs, at that time, had absolutely no OF talent close to the MLB level. I never would've given Soriano a freaking 8 year deal with his prior stats, but that's really all in the past....and we have to live with it.
But if you have the choice of Brett Jackson (assuming he hits 15-20 hr, 60+RBI, .290-.300+avg, and above a .340 OBP this year in the minors) at $425k vs Byrd at $5.5 million next year, who would you take? Likewise, if you had a guy like LaHair, hitting 20+hr, 80-90+RBI, .300+avg, etc., would you rather take him over Lee at $10+million, which he'll likely demand? I guess if Lee is willing to go all the way down to $5-6 million, which is the price players his age seem to be going for nowadays, then I'd probably re-sign him, but the likelihood of him taking over a 50% salary cut is HIGHLY unlikely.
I'm also iffy on re-signing Lilly, even if it's only to the rumored 2 year extension being thrown about. Lilly will be 34 years old next year, and he's coming off shoulder surgery, plus a knee clean-up from last year. I think it's time to see what the kids can do in our system, like Samardzija, Cashner, Jackson, Coleman, Carpenter, and even Antigua, if he continues his success next year.
So, after this year, we will have, potentially, Lee ($13 million), Lilly ($13 million), Fontenot ($1 million), Theriot (likely $3.4 million), Nady ($3.3 million), and Tracy (about $1 million, provided he makes the team), coming off the books. That's potentially almost $35 million off the books for 6 players, or an average of approximately $6 million/player.
Mauer, Dunn, possibly Berkman, and possibly Pujols, possibly Jose Reyes, Crawford, Werth, possibly Hawpe, Beckett, Vazquez, are all potential free agents on the market next year. Berkman has more 30+hr, 100+RBI, .400+OBP seasons than Lee could ever dream of. Mauer is better than Soto could ever dream of. Reyes is far better than Theriot. Basically everyone on that list represents an upgrade over what we currently have. IT's time we drop all the players I mentioned for next year, and either go young, or go in another direction. If we don't make the playoffs this year, I don't see how anyone on the team could make a case for coming back. They're one of the most overpaid teams out there (next to the Mets), and we just aren't seeing the ideal results.
So, I hope like crazy that the Cubs can put it all together and win next year. I hope Byrd continues his career year from last year. I hope Soriano, ARAM, Lee, and Lilly can be healthy and up to their respective career averages. I hope Fukudome, in his 3rd full season over here, finally figures out MLB pitching. I hope Jaramillo can fix Soriano, Fontenot, Soto, and Fukudome, and continues good work with Byrd. I hope Maddux has an outstanding impact on our pitching staff.
Man, that's a lot of "hope", isn't it?....Kind of sounds like a Barack Obama campaign speech, doesn't it?!? LOL...look how that one turned out...LOL
I don't think Cubs fans notice all the things that need to go right in order for the stars to align for a championship to come to fruition.
Health, career years from some folks, bouncing back from awful seasons to career averages, and outstanding performances from inexperienced young players are all things that need to happen, and I just don't think everyone realizes that.
In other words, I think there is completely unwarranted optimism surrounding this team. Nobody seems to realize we essentially replaced Bradley with Byrd, and we lost
Harden and Lilly (possibly for as much as 2 months if his rehab doesn't go well).
How is that making our team better? Great, we have Nady and Tracy, two players coming off significant injuries. But are they starters? NOPE! Where does Tracy play? 3B/1B. Does that help us with ARAM and Lee as incumbents? NOPE! Maybe if they're hurt...but that's a negative for us, even if we had my preference of Blalock in there. You simply cannot replace ARAM's bat, unless you have an AROD or Longoria, etc. Where does Nady play? OF/1B. We have significant money invested in Soriano and Fukudome, so unless they're injured or extremely ineffective (notice "extremely", as that's what it seemed to take last year to get anyone out of the lineup), there doesn't seem to be anyway Nady will start.
And keep in mind that our rotation nearly carried us to the playoffs last year, despite our woeful offense. We lose 2/5 of our rotation...two of our most shutdown pitchers from the last 2 years. You simply cannot replace that production.
Am I the only one that notices this? I know people don't want me to harp on stuff like this...I'm just wondering if anyone else notices...that's all
Is it bad that I'm more excited for the real changes that will happen in 2011 than I am for 2010? Don't get me wrong...I'm always excited for the season to get underway, but I'm not happy with the way this organization handled the past 2 offseasons.
Last year, it was Dunn, Abreu, and Ibanez as CLEARLY better options to Bradley, and the whole baseball community knew this fact. This year, it was Ankiel vs Byrd, Blalock vs Tracy, and Lopez vs Nady. Just as I was adamantly opposed to the Bradley signing, noting his health AND his average to below average stats as an everyday outfielder, I remain adamantly opposed to the Byrd, Tracy, and Nady signings for health, and the fact Byrd, like Bradley, is coming off a career year.
Ankiel is more athletically gifted, and more powerful than Byrd. Blalock is far more productive than Tracy, and Lopez is more versatile than Nady...AND healthier.
But I digress....
Aaron, I do think Byrd might be ok...AS a fourth outfielder...Let's give him a chance...
Can you imagine if we signed Prince Fielder next year? With Byrd and Fielder stepping off the plane first...people would think it was the Bears. :)
I looked at the 2011 FA class though and didn't see Fielder, otherwise I'd DEFINITELY go all out after him, but he wasn't in the list
Here is the list of Potential FA for 2011
First Basemen
Lance Berkman HOU *
Wes Helms FLA
Jason Giambi COL
Ross Gload FLA
Paul Konerko CWS
Derrek Lee CHC
David Ortiz BOS *
Lyle Overbay TOR
Carlos Pena TB
Albert Pujols STL *
Fielder is part of the 2011/12 offseason class that will be huge at 1B (barring trades, or extensions)
Fielder signed a 2 year extension June 09. Service time started June 05. So the Brewers would have one more year of Arb
control after the 2010 season....If they can't get an extension...thyey w9ill trqade him...Time frames are from Cots.
Aaron,
Wouldnt't you want the Cubs to go get a true ace with the money that is saved on Lee and Lilly contracts?? Webb, Lee, or Beckett? If Webb reverts back to his old form after last years surgery, I would love to see him in blue pinstripes.
From MLB Trade Rumors - Sounds like someone will be buying low, when they sign Blalock.
Blalock, 29, is represented by Scott Boras. He hit .234/.277/.459 in 495 plate appearances for the Rangers last year. It was his first healthy season since '06, but he posted the lowest batting average and on-base percentage of his career.
Blalock came up as a third baseman, but played only nine innings there in '09. He logged 567.6 innings at first base, spending the rest of his time as a designated hitter. In recent years Blalock had a rib removed due to thoracic outlet syndrome and also had shoulder and wrist surgeries. The Indians are the only known Blalock suitor, as the Orioles, Braves, and Pirates have gone in different directions.
OK...it's time to weigh in...
Dorasaga- nice scouting work...bat speed and Bad Knees combined combined for Soriano's bad season last year IMO...and unfortunately...bad knees don't really get batter...and bat speed decline is a killer....Maybe Rudy can do something with Soriano...at least it is someone he might listen to this year.
To answer the Brad Snyder critics. I became a fan of Brad Snyder last season...in the vacuum of reasonable production from Sori/Fuko/PsychoBradley.
Yep...it's true he's never finished above .278 in the minors...but last season he was recovering from a broken hand and was on a .300 plus pace until
Colvin was brought up over him and he inexplicably tailed off.
In winter ball this off season...he hit
over .350/ 48 rbis/ in close to 52 games.
(that line is not exact...he actually did a little better.)...but the fact is
he plays excellent defense,is left handed, has some pop in his bat...and would be an excellent option for a 4th 5th or 6th outfielder.
The way he has played the last year...
I would expect 15 - 20 homers and @.280
average...(LH)bat/and excellent legs and defense at the ,ajorleague level.
He's ready to contribute...I'm convinced.
Is he a star or THE star starter?..NO.
But he's fairly consistant...so if Fuko goes into one of his tailspins/Soriano has extended struggles...Nady can't throw etc...Snyder can offer us pop that Fuld can't, a left handed bat and excellent defense at All 3 outfield positions. That's it.
He's got an invite spring training becaused he turned some heads this
off-season...BUT...since he's not on the 40 man roster at this point...He's a long shot. As a player...I happen to like him....that's all.
Aaron...We are in trouble if both Hak Lee AND Castro are our starters next season...it would mean we rushed 2 prized prospects.
It's far too early to project 2011 right now. But I'm in agreement that there should be NO extensions at this point.
Lee and Lilly represent the only guaranteed payroll "wiggle room" for next season.
I'm sure the Cibs will try to trade Fuko
next off-season but 13 million left at that point there would be little return
and we would have toeat a substantial
part of his contract...and we don't knowthe outcome of the Bradley/Silva
contract yet.
This post is long enough...more later.
Aaron
I disagree, The whole baseball community did not agree about Dunn, Abreu & Ibanez.
Most of the thinking about those 3 was that they were over rated or well past their prime.
But back to your main point about the Cubs not being a better team
They won 83 games last year & improving it by 10 game shouldnt be that hard.
Soriano, just small improvement he doesnt have to hit 40hr with 100rbi.
Soto, should bounce back.
Ramirez, doesnt heve to be healthy all year, lets say 500ab's instead of 300.
Byrd, Yes he's better than Bradley's stats from last year, (I know you dont agree) I expect 20hr & 80rbi from him.
2nd base, production should improve.
Z, Goes from 9 to 15 wins (conservative)
Dempster, 11 to 14 wins.
Harden only had 9 wins shouldnt be hard to duplicate
Wells 12 wins, hopefully no sophmore jinx?
Gregg Addition by subtraction!! blown saves!!
Soriano - +2
Soto - +2
Ramirez - +2
Byrd - +2
Z - +6
Dempster- +3
No Gregg- +6
Total - +23 games
I believe all of these are conservative estimates, Some could be better or worse. And a few players like Lee may not have as good a year as 2009.
But thats plus 23 games & I think we only need to improve 10 to 12 games.
Aaron you do always seem very knowledgeable, but I guess we can agree to disagree.
I would love to hear Neil's & others thoughts.
I have my Cubs goggles firmly in place most of the time, but even I can't go +23 games in 2010. I think this team high end will be 88-91 Wins, if their If's all work out. (If Soriano, If soto, if etc.) If they get career years out of 2-3 players their win total could get into the mid 90's. I just don't see who is in position to have a career year on this team. Their low end I'd rather not say as, that is just not happening this year.
Tony
I was just replying to Aaron's question about the teams lack of pontential, I dont think they will improve by 23 games. My GUESS is 10 to 12 games. And it looks like yours is 6 to 8 games.
Also if Rudy is going to help our hitters like almost everyone agrees he will. We should be able to score an average of 1 more run per game as we did in 2008?
Agreed. I have the Cubs winning the division and faultering in the playoffs, unless some young players get a chance and make a difference. Of course, if that happens, then this will be the year.
I like Harden. But last year he was not at his best, even though he had his 2nd highest GS in his career at 26.
141 Innings - 5.4/game
122 Hits
67 BB
6 HBP
23 HR
171 K's
His other full year 2004
189.2 IP
171 Hits
81 BB
3 HBP
16 HR
167 K's
When on, he is one of the best. He just wasn't on much last year. He is a 5 to 6 inning max pitcher, who has pitched over 150 innings only once in his 6/7 year career. Wasn't worth the contract he signed. Seems like his best years, numbers wise, are all with less innings.
Tony, the problem is the Harden's likely
replacements...Gorzo won't likely go more than 5 or 6 innings
...Shark/Silva...we don't know if they can go 3 innings...and not one of those guys has the type of stuff Harden had.
My true hope lies in Lou's statement that the young pitcher's will have a real
opportunity...and either Diamond/Cashner/
Coleman stand out.
Also...it will be very interesting to see what Dolis does in spring training.
The Cubs put him on the 40 man roster...
to protect him from rule 5....If he shows better control of that blazing heater...we might have a wonder boy in the pen....but it's more likely he'll end up at AA....Stll it's something to watch.
btw Moises Alou was the GM of one of the Caribbean Teams...and says he's be interested in a front office job...Should we notify the Cubs?
Just be careful if you shake hands.
The link to the article was too convuluted for my aging eyes...but if yougo to Cubs .com....minor league affiliate section and look under the Carribean section...you'll find a nice
article on Moises.
Way to funny. Not sure which is one is funnier, the GM job for Alou or the shaking hands part.
I have no use for Moises Alou.
Could you please be a little more explicit? :) :) :)
Sure, Suzy. Greedy, no-hussle ballplayers with bad attitudes should never be promoted to be a GM anywhere, much less where they were a cancer in the clubhouse.
I don't see Funko getting traded anywhere because I don't see Funko suddenly becoming a more productive player. And should he become more productive, then he would have to be packaged off with almost all of his salary. In short, "we're sunk, and we're going to have to pay through the nose, and you know it."
Agreed...re Fuko...but the Cubs will try in the off season...and they should put him on the block....but not waste a lot of time with it either.
-Rios was a shock last season...you just never know...
I never expected the Cubs to win 97 games in 2008. I loved every Harden/DeRosa minute of it. I never expected the Cubs to only win 83 games in 2009. I hated every Gregg/Bradley minute of it.
But let's be honest - no journalist or fantasy analyst or fan that I know of really expected either of those results, much less both. It's why they play the games.
I think the 2010 Cubs are good for a +5 improvement over 2009. They do not have the mark of lovable losers about them. I agree with SuzyS in that there seems to be a "hunger" to prove themselves as an elite team. I have no Cubs goggles on right now. They are not elite at present. But nobody in the NL Central is (sorry, Cards, but the savvy deadline deals are the only thing that saved you from our fate last year. Hurts being swept in the playoffs, doesn't it?). So, I'm willing to cheer on my team and hope that we over perform like 2008 rather than underperform like 2009.
Aaron, I guess I'm a moderate on the kids coming up, because I would consider one or two year extensions to Lee and Lilly. I've been so disappointed by the whole Patterson, Pie, Patterson, Hoffpauir, Shark hype that I am jaded about any scouting reports on our prospects and even more leery of their actual production in the majors. That said, if Lee and Castro and LaHair and Jackson and Snyder tear it up in ST, then you have to stare at Fontenot and Soriano and Fukudome and say "what've you done for me lately?"
Based on simple splits, I think you have to go with the combination of Fuld, Byrd, and Nady against left-handers. And given Byrd's numbers, maybe we should consider Baker instead on those days. But Fukudome and Soriano are on the bench. Lou should quit giving away outs if he wants the plus 10 wins he thinks are there.
I still think Soriano can be a power in the 5 or 6 hole if he can make his mid-life adjustments. If not, I say he becomes our very expensive 4th outfielder. Fukudome needs to bat near the top of the order against right-handers and play right field. I think he will be slightly more productive this year, although I have always hoped for much more. I'm good with Byrd and I think we will get similar numbers this year from him in Chicago as he produced last year in Texas (even Jacques Jones was good for us for one year). After that, we'll see. I actually have similar expectations for Nady as I have for Byrd. That would mean I would expect about 75 HRs and 290 RBIs from those four OFs for 2010, as opposed to 61 HRs and 225 RBIs we received from nine OFs in 2009. I could live with that improvement and the better clubhouse atmosphere.
I would also predict that Soto and Zambrano will be much better in 2010. ARAM will be less than 100%. DLee will be less than last year, but more than 2008. If Theriot is at 2B, his offensive numbers will rise a bit. If Theriot is at SS, they will stay the same.
Who knows what Silva will do, but I expect nothing and will therefore be pleasantly surprised by almost anything. Our starters are fine but not overwhelming, our bullpen is young and I see that as an advantage right now.
And Rip - I agree that we should stay away from Alou. He just doesn't handle foul things very well (must be the hands) : ).
Not much new here, but a good read for those that have missed a few of the updates on the CCO ...
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/david-kaplan-chicago-sports/2010/02/the-changes-that-are-coming-to-wrigley-field-and-the-cubs.html
Neil...thanks for the heads up...I really do think the Ricketts are going tobe great owners...It is exciting.
Cubs.com has a story about prospects playing in the Domincan...eating beans & rice....It reminded me of a pretty funny story I'd like to share with you guys.
I used to scuba dive quite a bit in my earlier years...
In the mid 80's, I flew alone from Chicago to meet some friends on St. Thomas for a sailing/diving trip.
The flight was in 2 parts...Chicago
to Miami...and Miami to St Thomas.
I stayed on the plane while Miami bound passengers got off and a new bunch of
passengers got on...but the flight was pretty packed.
It was Midway airlines...3 seats across
on both sides of the plane. The people sitting next to me got off in Miami...
so I had 2 empty seats...and across from me were 2 girls with an empty middle seat.
This really huge guy getting on in Miami
was assigned tothe middle seat across
from me...noway couldhe fit...so he asked if he could sit with me...and I
agreed.
He looked vaguely familiar.
But I was really excited about diving
and we talked about diving for 25 minutes or so...(He owned a dive shop in Key West...and knew Mel Fischer (discoverer of the Senora de Atocha...richest treasure ship ever.)
Anyway, after 25 minutes of jabbering on
I noticed he had a huge ring on his hand.
It was a World Series Ring.
I looked up at him and said, "You look vaguely familiar, I should know you..."
and he said, "Suzy I'm sorry," shook my hand and said..."I'm Boog Powell."
And he regaled me with stories of his baseball experiences...including many stories of playing in the Dominican
Republic for the rest of the 2 1/2 hour
flight.
He was on his way to St. Croix to do a Miller Lite Commercial.
As an avid baseball fan...man was I embarassed when I did not recognize him!!!
I know this was a long winded post...but
one worth sharing.
Brilliant story! Takes me back to my baseball cards of Boog and Brooks. The Orioles were great fun back then.
Yes,the old Orioles had great teams!
Great story Suzy, thank you for sharing.
Btw, thanks for the encouragement. I love playing scout--helps on keeping my eyes rolling.
:)
That is a cool story. This big guy played before I was even born! The closest to professional "cool" whom I ever met on a plane is a guy who shoots for National Geography. And I don't even remember what's his name.
Dorasaga...As you go along...you'll have more "cool stories" of your own...that would be an interesting flight with a National Geographic photographer.
Really nice job on your "scouting report". Soriano's success could be the difference between a good season and a great one....but I'm not holding my breath on him.