There is a little too much debate here on Blanco vs Theriot....

This is like comparing a Kia to a Hyundai..

Baron, nice levity...YuGo?

Suzy, do you mean "Toy-ota?" I mean, if we're talkin' junk . . . .

ALLRIGHT YA'LL. SAINTS...THEN CUBS. WORD!!! NOLA REPRESENT!!!! CUBBIES NEXT!!!

Suzy,

Let's take Blanco's Cubs' line from 2009 and extrapolate it over 500 ABs.

.252 avg

4 HR

48 RBI

0 SB with 8 CS

32 BB

64 K

.341 slugging

.644 OBS

Now let's comparo to Fontenot (since that is who he would effectively replace):

.266 BA

10 HR

52 RBI

5 SB 2 CS

43 BB

83 K

.422 slugging

.762 OBS

I'd rather have Fontenot. And that ain't a saying too much. I'd play Nady there until his arm heals . . . .

Rip. Extrapolation in this case is not really valid.

My premise is that Blanco has finally come to a comfort level with his bat...late season and off season. (kind of like Aardsma finding his control last season)....so extrapolations don't really apply...with the exception that we can agree he IS NOT going to generate power.

Fontenot's defense is suspect also.

And in reality, Blanco would not replace

Fontenot...Baker would.

Lou has already said he envisions Blanco on the team. Assume Theriot as the starter whereever he plays...(unless traded)and it comes down to Baker/Fontenot. That's what we are really talking about.

Yes, extrapolation doesn't work. Just look at the extrapolation last year with Fontenot. They were sure he'd hit 20+ HRs. He just hit 9 like he did the year before in half the ABs.

Aardsma: I screamed when JHendry traded him off. I knew that stunk.

Wuertz: I screamed when JHendry traded him off. I knew that stunk. ANd then we released one of the two guys we trade for. ANd the other is a career, 28 yr old utility infielder that won't see ML service time.

Since Lou says he envisions Blanco on the team, I take it as a fact already that he's made the team. Now who does that cut off the team?

I suspect that JHendry most likely will trade Fontenot away for 3 minor leaguers who will never play 1 inning of ML baseball.

13 Position Players

OF - Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Nady

3B - Ramirez, Tracy

2B/SS - Theriot, Blanco, Baker

1B - Lee

C - Soto, Hill

That's 12 - I can't say the last spot needs to be an OF as Baker, Tracy, and Blanco could all play OF. Tracy and Nady will cover 1B. 3B is covered, with Tracy as well. So I see the last spot as a 2B/SS option that could preferably also be athletic enough to play all 3 OF spots. Fontenot is just not needed as he can only play 2B that we already have 3 guys who can cover. The last spot could also be slugging bat as well. By getting rid of Fontenot, they would have $1 million to fill the spot. If they win the arb case with Theriot, they will have $1.8 million to fill this spot. But will they use the $$$'s or wait until later in the year to see where there hole is really, versus, where they think there hole is at on this team.

Looks to be a good 2nd half at the Super Bowl.

Tony,

Well, according to your speculative roster (I think you are right), Fuld makes the team to cover all three OF spots. I know he cannot play 2B, but Blanco/Theriot/Baker can, so it probably isn't a problem. Besides we need a spare CF. And that means Hoffpauir is out. Too bad.

I would go with Fuld or Snyder, IF they can't find the guy I want. Someone who can play SS (which means he should be able to play 2B) and all 3 OF. A young athletic player.

This could be someone like Barney from our own system (I don't know if he can play OF). It could be a player that is out of options, that another team has to let go. If not the choice would be Fuld or Snyder. Hoffpauir and Fontenot just don't cut it for me. If we find the guy I want, Fuld and Snyder go to AAA and they will both get chances when one of our OF gets hurt. With Soriano's past and Nady just coming back from Tommy John Surgery, I would think one or both will get spend some time on the Chicago/Iowa shuttle.

Numbers are fun to play with and manipulate. We could take his 2009 AAA stats and improvements from 08 and translate that to 2010 Major league stats and say he will bat 280, etc. over 500 AB's. He will have to hit in ST for him to get 4 starts a week, I would be looking to give him.

Why I wouldn't take Fontenot?

- The league has figured out how to get him out. He can only play 2B.

- We have 3 other guys that can play 2B (Theriot, Baker, Blanco).

- The 25th guy I want needs to be able to play 2B/SS and OF preferred.

If Blanco hits .275 in 200+ ABs, I'll apologize right here on ChiCubOnline.

Me, I see him doing a Fontenot, the "Little Babe Ruth" thing of being overexposed to ML pitching if he gets too many ABs. Of course I could be wrong.

Time will tell. But until then, FORGETABOUTIT.

Rip...I don't know where you get .218 from. Blanco's career average over 4 seasons is .252...However, I believe a light came on for him at the plate...late last season and this off season. He hit .291 in the winter leagues.

Blanco will never be an all-star...but I think we could expect .265 - .275 with a decent walk/ko ratio....maybe more under Rudy's tutelidge.

If we can't add Lopez/Castillo or somesuch...that's not too bad with his excellent defense.

Remember, we only have one ko pitcher to start out with...all the rest are contact pitchers...defense is more important with contact pitchers.

Time will tell.

Who is the KO pitcher?

Not Z, as his strike out totals have been diminishing for 4 years straight.

Not Wells.

Not Gorz.

Not Dumpster.

Lilly?

Z is the closest we have to a KO pitcher...and as you say...his #'s have declined.

btw Castro to back up what Tony said...

re better defensive guys get to more balls and hence have more errors...

Castro had 19 errors in the minors last year...and yet is considered (mlb ready,

defensively).

Castro is NOT ready. There is zero advantage to rushing him.

Darwin Barney is much, much closer to being MLB ready. He doesn't have Castro's upside, but he's a much better option for '10.

Is he better for the lineup than Bakenot? Eh.

Blanco is already major league ready and would be a good way to move Theriot to 2B, without bringing up Castro to early. This allows Baker to play our Dero position of Mr. Everything.

Barney could be the 25th guy.

How is he major league ready? He hasn't taken on any major league pitcher or a large amount of major league-ready talent. He needs to prove himself at the Triple A level first before he can be considered MLB ready. And by "MLB Ready", that just means ready to get in and start until he starts to consistently suck.

Until Starlin Castro starts at least a half of a month's worth of games hitting .275 or above, he doesn't exist to me. And when he can finish a season hitting .285 on up, then he's proven to me he's good.

Also, I noticed some talk of Dave Duncan and the pitchers he's turned around, just thought I would mention that this season he's going to be working with Rich Hill. Anyone want to take a guess at how big of a nightmare THAT will be?

Forgot to add in his KC AB - He has a total 349 career AB's against Major League Pitching. With 2 years of AAA after coming to the Cubs to help him improve.

I'm not saying he's a future All-Star, but a rotation of Blanco and Theriot at SS and Theriot and Baker at 2B would be better than, Theriot and SS and Baker or Fontenot at 2B. We need better D up the middle and Blanco can provide this until Castro forces Theriot back to 2B where he belongs.

And who says Blanco's glove is superior to Theriot's? Sure, he has more range and perhaps his arm is stronger. But does he actually catch the ball better? I don't think his minor league stats prove that, do they? I think he makes a lot of errors. Let's look at the stats.

Theriot made 15 Errors last year. He was #12 of top 22 SS in MLB for fielding percentage: middling, eh? IN ZR Theriot was #8 in all of MLB. #7 of 22 in Double Plays. #6 in assists. #9 in range factor.

Blanco vs. Theriot: Blanco .939 fielding is far worse than Theriot's .976. Blanco had 3 errors in only 49 chances. That's 3 errors in 90 innings (1 error every 30 innings). Theriot had 15 in 1,311 innings, or 1 error every 87.4 innings.

Like I said, Blanco hasn't got enough bat for me, and he hasn't proved he has enough glove at the ML level, either.

So let's look at Blanco's minor league fielding. 2009. 7 errors in 221 chances. .968 fielding (worse than Theriot's). 2008=22 errors & .942 in 377 chances. Hey, this guy hasn't proved he can field better than Theriot on the minor or major league level. 2007=.957 2006=.956 and 21 errors.

Now let's look at his minor league bat.

2009 6 HR--career year for him. He hit 4 in 2005, and 2 in 2006; 1 in 2008; 0 in 2007. Not a power house by any measure.

BA: 2007=.192 2008=.285 2009=.304 Hey, maybe Von Joshua isn't so bad after all . . . .

SB=2006=8 2007=0 2008=9 2009=6 All of these is appox. 360 plate appearances.

What do you see here, gentlemen and dear gentle ladies, that makes you clamor for Blanco?

If you have watched both Theriot and Blanco play you will know that Blanco is way better defensively. Guys that get to more balls make more errors. But if you don't get to it, it's a hit. Guys with better arms, make more throws and get more outs than sticking it in your pocket.

Theriot is much more suited for 2B. Blanco is a SS.

I think it is worth exploring. I think of it has who would you rather start, Fontenot at 2B or Blanco at SS. Fontenot wouldn't even break camp with me.

Spring Training should be real interesting.

Tony, I agree with your statements, except I am not sure I'd fail to take Fontenot with me. ST will tell the tale for sure.

We'll see how it all pans out in ST, but right now I'm not a Blanco fan. I want bats in the lineup, and a Punch and Judy .218 hitter--as I figure Blanco to be--doesn't fit my style or win many games. I don't think the D up the middle with Theriot/Baker/Fontenot is losing too many games for us out of 162. I'd think the Theriot/Fontenot/Baker D doesn't cost us more than 2-3 games a year (as comparo to Blanco/Theriot) and I'd also think that Blanco's bat might cost us 8-10 games per year (or even more) with his failing to hit with men on base.

ST is going to be interesting.

ok

Boseph,

He needs to prove himself at AAA level first before he can be considered MLB ready you say.

AT AAA

2008 - 102 games - 298 AB - .285 avg - .327 OBP

2009 - 64 games - 230 AB - .304 avg - .353 OBP

The improvement from one year to the next is what you want to see. Last year in a utility role with the Cubs he got 123 AB against Major League pitching and batted .252. If he can improve on that just a little, I will take his defense.

Not sure if 166 games and 528 AB is enough, but he also has had a good winter and will be playing a position that we need defense more than offense. Our defense will be much better with Blanco at SS and Theriot at 2B.

One of the most glaring faults with our pitching staff, is where we have gotten our starts from (Home grown, versus FA)

Over the last 10 years # of starts

Over 100 Games

1 Zambrano - 238

2 Wood - 129

3 Prior - 106

Over 90 (in addition to above)

4 Lilly - 95

5 Clement - 94

6 Maddux - 90

Over 60 (in addition to above)

7 Dempster - 70

8 Marquis - 61

Rounding out the Top 10

9 Marshall - 59

10 Hill - 57

When you look at this list, it is not good when only 8 pitchers have over 60 starts (not even 2 full seasons).

Our Top 3 on this list were homegrown (2 were Home ruined).

The next 5 were FA or trades. I counted Maddux as a FA as his last stint was from FA.

The next 2 were homegrown. This is the bad part. Home grown arms that weren't able to start 60 games.

Bottom line, for an organization, that has always been said to have lots of arms in the organization and no real bats, has not produced the arms needed to start at the major league level. This has required us to overpay for FA arms or overpay in talent for arms in trades.

Here is the whole list.

40 different starters.

1 Carlos Zambrano 238

2 Kerry Wood 129

3 Mark Prior 106

4 Ted Lilly 95

5 Matt Clement 94

6 Greg Maddux 90

7 Ryan Dempster 70

8 Jason Marquis 61

9 Sean Marshall 59

10 Rich Hill 57

11 Jon Lieber 56

12 Jason Bere 48

13 Glendon Rusch 44

14 Rich Harden 38

15 Kevin Tapani 29

16 Shawn Estes 28

17 Julian Tavarez 28

18 Randy Wells 27

19 Juan Cruz 23

20 Jerome Williams 19

21 Sergio Mitre 18

22 Angel Guzman 14

23 Carlos Marmol 13

24 Sean Gallagher 10

25 Juan Mateo 10

26 Wade Miller 8

27 Tom Gorzellany 7

28 Alan Benes 7

29 Steve Smyth 7

30 Steve Trachsel 4

31 Kevin Hart 4

32 Jon Koronka 3

33 Jeff Samarzija 2

34 Les Walrond 2

35 Ryan O'Malley 2

36 Pat Mahomes 2

37 Jae Kuk Ryu 1

38 Jon Leicester 1

39 Manny Aybar 1

40 Joe Borowski 1

Joe Borowski??? :)...that's olike the Dodgers giving Charlie Haeger a shot at the 5th spot in the rotation...I love a good knuckleballer BUT...

Borowski's 1 start

1 2/3 IP

6 ER

6 H

3 BB

1 HR

1 SO

Wasn't hard to see he wasn't a starter.

I still would prefer Blanco as a starting SS until Castro is ready. Move Theriot to 2B now - whether Castro is ready or not. Also consider that the Mets would still like to move Castillo. Why not get creative and trade Gorz and Theriot in a 3-way to get Castillo with the Mets eating much of his contract - with Blanco or Castro at SS and Castillo at 2B hitting at the top of the line-up.

Forget about adding another reliever until after June 1. Search out in-house options and with 1/3 of the season gone, Ricketts may approve taking on a little more salary for the remainder of the season for that reliever.

The Mets aren't going to pay for Castillo and Theriot, just to get rid of Castillo.

I have been calling for Blanco at SS (if Castro isn't ready) and Theriot to 2B. A 3 person platoon of Theriot, Baker, and Blanco would work as well.

Castillo is due 12 million over the next 2 seasons...I don't see it...unless they

want to take on Fukodome's 26 million...and I don't see that either.

I do like Blanco...and can see a so called 3 way platoon...Theriot/Baker

sharing second. Theriot/ Blanco sharing ss.

We're screwed if Theriot gets hurt.

I do seem to recall that the popular opinion was that Wuertz was awful and had to go. I think he had a decent slider and some potential but he was too reliant on the slider and when he couldn't get it over he was in trouble. At the end he got too fine and walked too many stirring Pinella's wrath. Not sure what Oakland did for him, maybe it was a new mental approach or giving him a way to get another pitch over when the slider was not there. I believe it is hard for relievers on the North side because Lou doesn't understand why releivers can't just throw strikes and get outs and Rothchild is not the type of coach that is creative when it comes to changing a pitchers approach and finding better ways for pitchers to leverage their stuff. Duncan in my mind is a master at that.

I don't remember ever thinking Wuertz was "awful". He definitely showed flashes of dominance with the Cubs. Then he have the youngster's inevitable bad game and get sent down. UP / Down. The Cubs do not know how to manage young pitchers. It is so obvious. It is was Hendry is on a perpetual search for a veteran bullpen arm and it is dumb.

Remember David Aardmsa?

Marshall

Guzman

Wuertz

Aardsma

Marmol

not a bad "home grown" pen, eh?

We got Aardsma in the Hawkins trade along with Jerome WIlliams, if not mistaken. But you can make a list of the pitchers that succeeded after they left the Cubs. Some have since soured, but had some productive seasons after the Cubs.

Eyre (World Series ring with Philly)

Gaudin (World Series ring with Yankees)

Mitre same as Gaudin

Dontrelle Willis (became one of the dominant pitchers in the league for couple of seasons)

Downs

Aardsma (38 saves last season)

Wellemeyer has had some success under Duncan

Farnsworth

Ohman

Nolasco

Juan Cruz

Marquis (15 wins last season)

not to mention the older guys who had great careers after the Cubs like

Maddux (would the Cubs have won a World Series by now, if he would of had his Atlanta years here)

Moyer

A few others could be added to that list in the future including:

Heilman

Ceda

Veal

Harden

Can't say there is much on this list that I would want back.

Besides for the obvious in Maddux.

Willis - but look at what the Tigers are having to pay him for not much in return

Nolasco

Aardsma - but can't say he would of done it under the spotlight of Wrigley.

You can't be serious putting Heilman on a list of future regrets.

Ceda and Veal - are still just prospects

Like I said, can't say I would want many of these guys back.

Aardsma isn't a fair example...he came from Don Cooper's White Sox...couldn't

do anything there or with us...fast forward 3 years after stops out east(Red Sox)....nothing. Becomes a stud in Seattle for one season.

It's the vagaries of the bullpen...what will be interesting to see is if they can

harness Dolis in and make him effective.

Suzy, just a quick FYI.

Aardsma came from the Giants organization. He was traded from the Giants along with Jerome Williams in May of 2005 for LaTroy Hawkins.

The Cubs traded him along with Carlos Vasquez in November of 2006 to the White Sox for Neal Cotts.

Also for what it is worth, I am curious to see how he pitches (closes games) for a team that is expected to win. A lot easier to close out games with no pressure or expectations.

My mind must be going. Sorry about that guys.

Seattle has made a lot of interesting moves...but we'll see how it gels.

The fact still reamains he did nothing with the Cubs/White Sox/ Red Sox...control issues the whole time.

Agreed on his control ... but again, it is easier to pitch in Seattle with no expectations than with the Cubs, White Sox or Red Sox.

One thing is certain, he has a great arm.

If Mr. Hendry had not dumped Michael Wuertz for nothing in ST 2009, the Cubs wouldn't be looking for a RHP out of the bullpen.

Every year teams have to make decisions on players. Most of these decisions are the right ones, but it so easy to pick out ones that didn't work, in hindsight.

Every team has given up on relief pitchers, that have gone on to look good for a year or two somewhere else.

I always liked Wuertz and his slider and hindsight says he had a good year last year. But one can never know the why.

There is nothing about his stats in Oakland that resemble his stats in Chicago.

2009

6-1 2.63 ERA

IP 78.2

WHIP 0.95

Avg .188

That's not the Wuertz that pitched for Chicago.

Someone said something that worked for him much better. Maybe it was the less pressure of pitching in Oakland than Chicago.

Now I know what's next, this means Rothschild is a bad pitching coach. Guys don't make it to the majors as a pitching coach and not be exceptional as a pitching coach, but within the majors there is still a pecking order of coaches. I'm sure that Curt Young, the A's pitching coach, since 2004 season, is in the top half of these rankings, based on his work with Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Harden, Duchscherer, Street. Then again, talent can always make coaches look good.

What about Dave Duncan of the cardinals? Look at all the pitchers that he turned into good pitchers when they are with him. Jeff Weaver, Braden Looper(career RP), Joel Pinero, Kyle Loshe and there are more. Some coaches make players play better and some coaches have the opposite effect. Name me a pitcher that has flourished under Rothchild?

Duncan is by far the best!

Duncan has repeatedly taken underachieving pitchers and taken them to overachieving pitchers. They then let the guys go to FA and do it again.

Rothschild is no Duncan.

Does Rothschild get any credit for?

Zambrano, Dempster, Marmol, Guzman, etc.

Not really, he just gets the blame when a guy goes elsewhere and succeeds.

I want Sandberg as Manager, Maddux as pitching coach. But that doesn't mean Rothschild is bad pitching coach. Just not special, of which there are very few.

Love those commercials! I have to admit, I am worried about 2b. Fontenot, Baker et all aren't exactly what I had in mind.

I have confidence in Baker, with Rudy Jaramillo's help. He could be the next Mark Derosa. Derosa was a career backup all glove, before Jaramillo got his hands on him. Here's an article I wrote about it awhile back. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/329794-can-jeff-baker-be-the-next-mark-derosa-the-rudy-jaramillo-factor

The Hawk looks like the Soul Glow Comercial Dude in Comming to America!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktl6L3ZwvL4&feature=related

Superb stuf Neil! I used to love the Chicks dig the long ball even though I hated Maddux at the time for being a Brave.

Absolutely fabulous job Neil.

Love the commercials.

You should take a vote on the faves...

"I'm a BudMan" is my #1.

Mark Prior is going to give it a shot

again...here's a pretty good article:

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2009/feb/08/padres-prior-another-shot/?padres

Happy Stupor Sunday All.

I'm curious to find out if Mark Prior has given any thought to becoming a fielder. Ankiel has made a somewhat successful transition. I think he had a decent glove when he pitched. All through college the kid could hit. Is he athletic enough though to play a corner outfield spot, or a second base. What about catcher? He has durable legs, a good arm. He may not be able to stand the rigor on his arm pitching, but an occasional throw to second wouldn't seem detrimental. Aaron or Neil may have a little more insight on what it would take to make that transition. Any thoughts?

there's a reason why I was a pitcher in college....I flat out couldn't hit (until I found out I was supposed to be a lefty all along, being right eye dominant). But the fact remains...very few pitchers like Ankiel, Owings, Hampton, etc. are good with the bat, and that's for good reason. They simply are better at pitching than hitting.

In some cases, like Owings, Ankiel, etc., (and a more recent example coming up...Casey Kelly with the BoSox), the pitcher is an outstanding 2-way player, and it's a toss up whether or not he should pitch. Brooks Kieschnik was a similar case, but it's very rare.

Wood and Prior could swing the bat, but if you gave them 600 AB's, chances are, they'd flop

Aaron,

I would not envision him getting 600 at bats, but 250 to 300? If he worked hard enough at learning a new position, the potential could be there. Have to believe somewhere along the way he played a different position.

Aaron, I think Z could have been the exception to that rule...he might have been a slugger...But then...there's no

reason for that...he has such exceptional stuff...It sure would be nice

if he'd have the type of season we've all been waiting for.

Thoughts?

Suzy,

I posted something awhile back concerning the Rudy effect on Z this year. We don't have much pop coming off the bench, I think that Z could be this year. If Lou gives him enough at bats on days he is not pitching, plus his at bats on days he starts - Z could be in double digit home runs this year. I think he has 15 homer potential if he gets at bats, if not he could still hit 10-12 under Rudy. What do you think?

No way, Woody. Z seems to almost injure himself every year diving into a base, trying to stretch doubles, breaking bats over his knee...this isn't 1940 and Z is not Babe Ruth (though he may think differently).

Z needs to focus on pitching, he can win far more games for the Cubs with consistent pitching than a few big pinch hits.

Woody, I missed your post...somehow.

To be honest...while I love to watch Z

hit...I cringe everytime he comes to the plate in a ph capacity....He's so important to us on the mound...that being said...I think Z is one of those atheletes that could do almost anything

he set his mind to. Z is certainly capable of 15 HRs...but the qualifier...

over how many abs.

I'd be happier if Z got 2 or 3...over the normal course of his pitching appearances...and the bench DID it's job.

There are so many avenues this team could go with in ST....Our bench may or may not have pop.

If they break with Castro for instance,

Do we really need Fuld?

NO/Little power

Fuld/Adduci

Theriot

Blanco/Barney

Castro

????

Adduci/Fuld are almost the same player

similar to Marshall/Gorzelanny.

Blanco/Barney same deal...but I think

Blanco has a better bat. (.291 over the entire winter)

Do we need 2 of the same type of player?

Or do we trade/release one to make room

for say Snyder...Tracy/LaHair...that might have some pop?

Too many variables just now to say.

Woody, I do not want to see Zambrano used as a pinch hitter this year. I would like to see him 'just' pitch and hit on the days he starts.

I know you asked Suzy, just my two cents.