The Chicago Cubs and Ryan Theriot appear headed for arbitration. The two sides have not budged on the numbers submitted last month. Theriot submitted a $3.4 million figure and the Cubs offered $2.6 million. Ryan Theriot is not backing down.
According to Bruce Levine, the Cubs "are not thrilled about the direction this arbitration has taken." The Cubs feel Theriot and his agent could have avoided arbitration weeks ago. As reported, the Cubs have not been to an arbitration hearing with a player since Mark Grace in 1993 ... for the record, the Cubs won.
An arbitration hearing is a lose-lose proposition for both sides.
From the Sun-Times, "Ryan Theriot will sit across the table from Jim Hendry as a team representative tries to convince a three-member panel Theriot's not as valuable as he thinks he is."
Here is the latest from Bruce Levine and the rumor mill, notes from interviews on XM Radio with Ron Santo and Gary Hughes and an explanation of the arbitration process ...
With not posting an update on Tuesday, there is a lot to catch-up on ...
Chatting with Bruce Levine
The always-informative Bruce Levine held his weekly chat Tuesday on ESPN Chicago. Here are the highlights:
- Adam Kennedy has been on the Cubs' radar for a while ... money is the issue.
- The Cubs do not have the money to trade for Heath Bell.
- Luke Gregerson is still an option.
- Chad Tracy, Micah Hoffpauir and Kevin Millar will compete for one of two possible spots on the Cubs' bench.
- "The Cubs are tapped-out moneywise. Trades are the only thing they can do at this point."
- Starlin Castro is going to get a shot to make the big league club in Spring Training.
- Oneri Fleita told Bruce Levine, "They don't believe in trying to protect young players from advancing. It's going to be up to Piniella and his staff to find out if Castro is ready."
- Ryan Theriot will move to second base if Castro is ready for the majors.
- Ryan Theriot is the Cubs' second baseman of the future. The Cubs have a lot of good middle-infield talent coming through the system.
- Theriot told Levine at the convention, if Castro is ready he would move to second base.
- Keep an eye on Starlin Castro, Jeff Samardzija and Andrew Cashner this spring.
- Cashner could be a late-season addition to the Cubs ... possibly in the pen.
- Andrew Cashner could switch to the backend of the pen if Carlos Marmol struggles and Angel Guzman is traded. Levine said for now the Cubs are leaving Cashner as a starter.
- The Cubs will be cautious with Ted Lilly.
- It will be impossible for the Cubs to trade Alfonso Soriano and his contract before the trading deadline in July.
- Sam Fuld is projected to make the team out of Spring Training.
- Chad Tracy and Kevin Millar could make the team but the Cubs need speed and if both make the team Fuld could be the odd man out.
- Scouts in the Padres organization really like Angel Guzman and feel he could (if not now) be a closer ... which could allow them to trade Heath Bell.
- A deal for Luke Gregerson could end up costing Angel Guzman.
Ron Santo on XM Radio
Ron Santo joined Kevin Kennedy and Casey Stern Monday afternoon on XM Radio. Santo sounded a little tired but pretty good after missing the Cubs Convention in January. Santo, as always, is ready for Spring Training to begin.
Santo feels the Cubs' biggest problem in 2009 was all of the injuries, especially to key players. Santo pointed out Aramis Ramirez and every starter in the rotation missed at least a month.
Carlos Zambrano, Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano had terrible years ... and then there was Milton Bradley. Santo chalked up 2009 as not a good year all the way around, mostly due to injuries.
The Cubs needed a centerfielder according to Santo. He likes the addition of Marlon Byrd. Santo explained that Kosuke Fukudome is not a centerfielder; he is a right fielder. The Cubs will be better defensively with Byrd in center and Fukudome in right.
"Jim Hendry is not done yet," according to Santo. He feels Hendry still has additions to make to the roster. Santo said he has a feeling the Cubs fifth starter could come from the minor league system.
Milton Bradley was brought up again ... Santo explained that Bradley's biggest problem was the big market that is Chicago. Then he got on the wrong side of the fans with his comments (Santo mentioned the nine-inning comment Bradley made about the length of the games at Wrigley).
Gary Hughes on XM Radio
Gary Hughes (Special Assistant to Jim Hendry) joined Seth Everett and Jim Duquette during Power Alley (XM Radio) on Tuesday morning.
Hughes was asked about Milton Bradley at the top of the interview. Hughes moved on rather quickly by saying team chemistry should be better this season.
Gary Hughes thinks Kevin Millar will help with chemistry in the Cubs' clubhouse. Hughes got Millar his first job in pro-ball in the Independent League with St. Paul.
The addition of Marlon Byrd should help the Cubs, especially defensively. Hughes pointed out that the addition of Byrd allows Kosuke Fukudome to move back to right field. Hughes added that Fukudome has the tools to play center but like Ichiro he prefers right field.
Xavier Nady will be competition for all three outfielders. Lou Piniella will play the three outfielders that are producing the most according to Hughes.
Jeff Samardzija, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall and Carlos Silva will compete for the final two spots in the rotation. With Ted Lilly out, the Cubs have two spots to fill. Hughes stated that no one has the inside track on the two available spots.
The Cubs are expecting Ted Lilly back as soon as possible. They are not going to push him. Hughes said, "If you know Lilly he will be back sooner rather than later."
Hughes was asked about the Cubs' struggles last season. He said, "It is unfair to blame it all on Milton Bradley." Guys are getting paid to do a job ... they have to their job. The Cubs are hoping (banking) on certain players producing better in 2010.
Gary Hughes said the Cubs might be adding a right-handed reliever to the mix in the pen. Carlos Marmol wants to be the closer and the Cubs believe he is ready. Hughes pointed out, it is up to Carlos Marmol to show he is ready to be a big league closer. Marmol is one of the keys to the Cubs having a successful season.
Other News, Rumors and Tidbits
- Jon Paul Morosi brought up his concern about the absence of Ted Lilly at the beginning of the season once again. Morosi feels the Cubs not having Lilly in the rotation at the beginning of the year is one of the biggest stories of the winter ... that no one is discussing.
- Former Cubs farmhand Doug Deeds signed a minor league contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Deeds hit .281/.328/.470/.798 in 113 games between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. Doug Deeds' page on Baseball Reference.com
- Ryan Theriot's filing number is higher that the 2009 salaries of all but 11 of baseball's regular shortstops.
- According to the Sun-Times, the Cubs plan to carry five outfielders and two backup infielders in 2010. Andres Blanco is expected to one of the players on the Cubs bench.
- According to Bruce Miles, the Cubs might look at Noah Lowry but there does not appear to be much interest.
- The Cubs are one of "a number of National League teams" keeping track of Kris Benson according to FoxSports.com. Kris Benson's page on Baseball Reference.com
The Arbitration Process
Here are a few paragraphs from an article on Baseball Prospectus (January 2005) that explains the arbitration process.
"The process is what is known as "Final Offer Arbitration" (though in the world of alternative dispute resolution it is now becoming known simply as "Baseball Arbitration"). In mid-January, each side to the dispute submits a salary figure to a panel of independent arbitrators. After a few hours of hearings, held in early February, the arbitrators pick one figure or the other. The arbitrator cannot "split the baby" and settle on a salary in the middle of the spread between the club's figure and the player's. One side leaves the arbitration a winner and the other a loser, heightening risk and encouraging negotiation and settlement.This is the critical element of baseball arbitration: it is designed to produce a settlement, not a verdict."
"The hearings take place during the first three weeks of February. Once the 16 arbitrators have been selected, the next important task is for the Players Association and the Labor Relations Department of MLB, Inc. to schedule arbitrators for specific hearings on specific days. Ninety percent of this scheduling is done according to logistical concerns, but occasionally there is a bit of gamesmanship involved. Neither the Players Association nor the Labor Relations Department want market-setting cases to be scheduled early in the three-week hearing period. For example, if a young pitcher receives a huge victory early in February, the award could impact the hearings of other young pitchers later in the month. For this reason, MLB and the Players Association are careful to plan out the hearing schedule so that the other side has no potential advantage. Often this means that very similar players have their hearings scheduled for the same day."
"The club and player submit their "last best offer" for a salary ahead of time to the Labor Relations Department and the Players Association respectively. On "exchange day," representatives from both sides meet in New York and exchange figures one by one. Hearings are arranged in neutral cities by mutual assent (the CBA directs Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tampa/Orlando to be preferred sites). Typically the hearing takes place in a hotel conference room.
The technical procedure is simple. The player and club supply the arbitrator with a Uniform Player Contract (in duplicate) that has been properly completed except for the salary figure. Each side gets one hour to present its case. There is a short recess and then each side gets 30 minutes to rebut the other side's case and 30 minutes to present their summation. By tradition, the order of presentations is Player-Club-Player-Club-Player-Club, which gives the club the last word in each phase. Occasionally the player's representative will successfully move to have the order reversed. Some agents feel that even if this motion is unsuccessful it may stand as a helpful symbol to the arbitrators that the club has a unfair advantage in the hearing.Within 24 hours of the end of the hearing the panel chief informs the Players Association and the Labor Relations Department of MLB of the final decision, providing additional time for a settlement. The panel does not submit an opinion explaining their decision; it does not explain why they chose one salary figure over the other. The panel chair is also directed not to inform either party of the actual vote of panel members (3-0, 2-1, who voted for whom?). That information is communicated to the Players Association and the Labor Relations Department on March 15th following the hearings and is used by the two sides to help them craft arbitrator slates for the next year. Baseball arbitration is considered a pretty good gig for professional arbitrators. Some observers cynically note that to keep the job you can't side consistently with one side or the other, lest the other group nix you from the job in future seasons."
The following evidence is admissable:
1. The quality of the player's contribution to his club during the past season (including but not limited to his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal).2. The length and consistency of his career contribution.
3. The record of the player's past compensation.
4. Comparative baseball salaries (the arbitration panel is provided with a table of confidential baseball salaries for all players broken down by years of service).
5. The existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the player.
6. The recent performance of the club, including but not limited to his league standing and attendance.
- Click here for the entire article from Baseball Prospectus
- Explanation of the arbitration process on Cot's Baseball Contracts
Well, that's the latest ... and I am sticking to it!
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Everyone knows how biased I am but I just want to present this fact:
In 2009 the Cubs gave a 2-year, 4.9 million contract to a no-power, .280 career hitting middle infielder named Aaron Miles. That comes to 2.5 million a year.
Theriot has been THE most consistant Cub over the past 3 seasons compiling a near .290 average with little pop. Most would say he HAS outproduced Miles and his 2.5 million a year deal.
Theriot wants 3.4 million.
So the real question is that, if Aaron Miles is considered worth 2.5 by the Cubs, is 3.5 not fair for the superior Theriot?
Not to mention the leadership he has developed amongst his peers as well. Something else Miles did not bring to the table.
You are right. Leadership and consistent performance should be a +quality for Theriot.
The big difference between this year and last year is the economics of the game.
You are right. Pay the man.
Let's get out of the Dark Age, with Ryan Theriot:
http://chicagocubsonline.com/community_blog/2010/02/more-on-arbitration.php
How does Bruce Levine reconcile saying free agent Adam Kennedy is on the Cubs' radar, but the Cubs are "tapped out" and cannot sign any free agents? Of course, the problem is money, but wouldn't "being tapped out" make Kennedy off the Cubs' radar? Or could a salary-dumping trade be in the works?
IF Theriot wins arby, and the Cubs then release him so they don't have to pay him, they could sign Adam Kennedy for pocket change and make the team worse. See?
Here's Adam Kennedy's stats for 2009:
529 AB 11HR .289 BA 20 SB
Hey, I like the man. He's an upgrade offensively. But he played 3B for A's last year. . . .
Free agent signings are not comparables to arbitration cases. Arbitration compares like service time, like production, with the salaries earned. Theriot's case will end up at the Cubs figure. Past days have had the info and links.
Theriot has been a good player, but I've said all along - go to arbitration with him. I don't feel he is a long term player you build a team around. His pay will soon enough be more than he is worth, and we have a farm system filled with middle infielders.
2010 or 2011 will be his last year with the Cubs.
When the Cubs brass starts complaining (and holding accountable) the likes of Soriano and Fukodome (and their outrageous contracts), then they can comment on Theriot.
The kid works hard and gives 100% to the team...just the guy to cite before ST begins.
Agree 100%
From the Sun-Times - Gordon Wittenmeyer
Why the Cubs will win their arbitration case with Theriot.
I like Theriot. I just don't feel you shoud EVER overpay, just because they are nice guy, or because you already have overpaid players.
The Cubs need to stop overpaying the market!
Arbitration cases are built primarily on comparisons to like players, and some analysts consider Theriot's closest historical career match one of his peers: Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett.
Bartlett avoided arbitration in his first year of eligibility last year with an agreement for $1.98 million, and with the additional year of service time he agreed to a $4 million deal this year. The Cubs' offer represents more than a 30-percent increase for their first-year eligible player than Bartlett got a year ago - even though the salary market has not gone up that much.
Before struggling last year, Seattle's Yuniesky Betancourt (since traded to Kansas City), was another comparable shortstop in terms of hitting - not stealing as many bases but considered better in the field. He signed a multi-year deal a year before becoming arbitration eligible and made $2.3 million last year at Theriot's comparable service-time year ($3 million this year).
Hendry is said to be unwilling to move off the team's offer because of how strongly he feels about the number and to consider an arbitration hearing likely. Comparisons like these show why.
Not to mention this number: Theriot's $3.4 million filing is higher than the 2009 salaries of all but 11 of MLB's regular shortstops - all of them All-Stars (including a pair of MVPs), with the exception of 13-year veteran and two-time Gold Glove winner Orlando Cabrera.
Theriot's filing appears to be based at least in part on a comparison to Arizona's Stephen Drew, a similar fielder with almost exactly the same service time and starting experience. Drew, who has a similar batting average but more power compared to fewer stolen bases, signed a one-year, $3.4 million deal this winter.
Can someone explain how trading a reliever to add a reliever is anything other than a lateral move? I understand injury history w Guzman, and I don't know how his salary affects us, but as far as I can tell, 1-1=0
Thank you! Ive been saying the same thing. I cant believe they keep mentioning Guzman as trade bait...It sounds like he is in the doghouse or something. I have NO idea why you trade this guy for another of the same...age is still reasonable, and I believe he still has much upside...the potential of the injury bug can be the ONLY reason to do something with him...KEEP HIM!
While the team is entitled to react as they'd like, in the big scheme of a $140m plus payroll, let's get crappy over a one-player pay differential of less than $1 million.
With all the bonehead contracts (even including Byrd this offseason), this just seems really silly organizationally. Based on all the clamor for a 2B, give Theriot his due (as he's better than most on the available market), provide Castro or Blanco the SS job, and be done already.
The Cubs have a history of not going to arbitration for 17 years!!! They have always met in the middle. Ryan Theriot and his agent know this as well. If they are unwilling to compromise, they will be the ones that force the issue to arbitration.
2009 - That went to Arbitration
Shawn Hill - Won .775 million instead of .5 million
Dan Uggla - Won 5.38 million instead of 4.4 million
Dioner Navarro - Lost 2.1 million instead of 2.5 million
1 case over 400,000 and one over 275,00
14 still open this year - Most will settle
It's not just the Cubs that need to compromise, it's Theriot as well.
I was looking for comps. (method explained in my community blog replies). Because arbs also involve comparisons through ages as well, I realized Theriot has one asset for the player he is: Speed.
There's very very few shortstops throughout ages with 2000+PA and on-base 36%, while stealing 20+, even in their 3rd full year or age 30.
We are talking about Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin. See? We might be surprised how good Theriot really is.
Theriot is not that fast. He was also gunned down 10 times last year, 20SB for 30 attempts isn't that great.
Otherwise, I don't know where to stand on this. Three and half million does seem high for Theriot, but as pointed out previously, the club is getting shitty over 800K. That seems more than petty.
It's a no win.
Whether its $2.6m or $3.4m, who really cares based on the payroll impact? We'll find out when it's all said and done, and move on.
Mario- I am with you on Guzman- why after all the years of developing and nurturing him would we trade him for a similar player with less upside. Guzman should be our closer insurance, in case of a Marmol meltdown.
On the riot- just pay the guy 3 mil and be done with this, he is a stopgap for a few years, a solid consistent stopgap.
Theriot is a steady, but below average defender at shortstop, he is a singles hitter and not a base stealer. His on base % took a big step backward last year. He seems to help team chemistry with being a sparkplug. Let's not get too taken with his media friendly personality on this. Ryan is not a difference maker.
Theriot had 21 sb/11 cs last season.
Unfortunately, that makes him the Cubs best basestealer...until proven otherwise.
Bobby Dernier has his work cut out for him this ST...trying to upgrade sb out of this group.
I hope these guys settle before the hearings. You have to wonder what effect
going through the hearings and listening
to JH going through a list of negatives would have on Theriot's upcoming performance.
Theriot is exponentially more valuable to this year's version of the Cubs than just his numbers suggest...ALMOST like Woody and DeRo last year.
Adam Kennedy would be a mistake at this juncture...if he is viewed as a replacement for Theriot this season.
I personally want to see Guzman stay with the Cubs and have an injury free
season to prove himself...he has great stuff.
But if the doctors and the Cubs are TOTALLY CONVINCED he can't do that.
Then yes, try to sell high.
Give Theriot 3 million and be done with it. Hopefully Starlin Castro will make the jump to the big leagues and Theriot will shift to 2b.
Question...I know we signed BJ Ryan last year to a deal. Is he still with the Cubs organization?
BD,,,no Ryan's not with the Cubs.
But like you...I've been wondering about
him. There is little news re Ryan.
Now Hendry gets cheap with Theriot? After squandering money like a moron for 2 years, he doesnt want to pay the man 3-somethin million? Seriously...
Hendry is an oaf.
Please just pay Theriot. You can talk all you want about the middle infielders in the system, but until they perform at the big league level, it doesn't help your argument.
You're going to argue over 1 million dollars while Kosuke is collecting 13 mil for arguably less production?
Come on that's so offensive to a guy that has consistently produced for 3 years now when almost every other Cub player has been streaky as hell, with DLee and ARAM being the only exceptions.
Hendry was specifically told to spend like a 'moron' for the past few seasons to raise the value of the team (besides the fact that the economy tanked afterwards)
And the reason that aaron miles was signed for the 2.5/yr last season based on the fact that the prior season with STL he hit .320 and had a solid .290 career BA going into last season while seeing time at 2nd base, 3rd base, SS, and the OF.
Also I have a question. If Millar does not make the team out of ST would he be open to starting the season in the minors or would he ask to be released likely? He would definitely be good insurance in AAA if theres an injury or for September and a real boost to morale I think.
Also I am all for trading Guzman for BELL but absolutely against trading him for GREGERSON... like i said the other day, why give up on him when hes finally blossoming, he looked very good last year and will continue to be good if healthy.
Why would the Cubs put Gregerson above Frasor???
I'm not sure Levine's contention that Zell gave Kenney and Hendry the edict to spend "like a moron" applied to last season as the sale process was well underway by that time.
Miles was on a year to year with the Cards...and Hendry far exceeded Miles
typical salary to "land him"....ditto
Bradley with a 3 year deal instead of 2 years...although Hendry maintains there were other "comparable offers out there".
It's hard to believe...looking at the market.
Hendry is still in an "overpay mode",
evidenced by the Grabow contract.
The only exception seems to be Theriot...
and that might be a function of new
ownership.
As Levine pointed out...Bell his unlikely...due to salary differential (over 4 million) and prospects required...including Guzman.
Re Gregerson vs Frasor...that might comedown to which deal is more
"doable"...not who is better.
Re Millar...I have no clue...but normally
I'd assume he would play wherever he has the opportunity to land an mlb shot.
good news cubbies fans (alhtough sometimes i think this site assumes the cubs are a 5th place team).......the sporting news baseball preview issue has the cubs 2nd and wildcard winner......of course late moves like nady, tracy, millar (felipe lopez if he goes to the cards) are not included; but better to be the hunter this year than the hunted.
i have to disagree w/ neil's comment that arbiration is a lose-lose situation:
theriot ethier gets a 500% at 2.6M salary raise or 700% at 3.4M salary raise.
sorry, but if my employer wants to give me a 500% raise; say a few negative things i'd take it. ( and really how negtaive are they; then cubs are offering a 500% raise to begin w/). and these are adults playing a kid's game making millions; grow the hell up and accept either or. we the fans are the ones getting stuck w/ these asinine salaries that arbitration creates. wouldn't we all like to pick our salary and even if we lose get a 500% raise.
what happens if the judge thinks theriot should only get 2M..........not even an option. WOW!---what a game. (theriot will lose; not even close; his agent is a buffoon if he thinks he can win)
i would not trade guzman for bell; bell has 1 more year till FA; marmol is better and has better stuff; bell is 34 and most likely will do a "matt capps" on us; go the the crappy team where he can close. at least gregerson cannot leave for 5 more years; is only 26 and healthy unlike guzman; not even once. i'd keep guzman, but if he gets traded it's the cubs opinion that he'll never stay healthy or is headed there again soon.......he gets hurt again he becomes mark prior........worthless.
PLEASE remember when knocking theRiot for being caught stealing 10 times, he is a TABLE SETTER. That means many of his CS's were blown hit-n-runs after he did his job by getting on base. You still get dinged for that even when your teammate failed to put the ball in play. On a hit-n-run, you are trained to get a much slower (safer) jump ... the theory being, you are not so much "stealing" as you are getting a head start to go 1st-to-3rd with no chance of getting picked off.
I believe most of the time Theriot gets thrown out, it was straight steals. He is not that good of a base-stealer. For the most part, I think the only times I have seen him steal a base is when the other team doesn't make the play. If they catch, throw and tag, he is out. I honestly hope they bat him 2nd, so that he doesn't attempt to steal as much.