I always liked Millar in the past...but I

wouldn't read too much into the Millar signing....System wide we are weak at 1rst...from Cubs perspective...we probably just need a first baseman for split squad games...from Millar's viewpoint...he can showcase himself and maybe earn a job somewhere...it is interesting though with Hoffpauir/LaHair

Tracy already on board.

It will be real interesting across all major league camps, watching veterans who have started most of their careers, fight for a job and in many cases go to AAA to play.

I like Kevin Millar, I wanted the Cubs to grab him for the past few years. Sure he is old but is one of the best clubhouse guys in the league (remember the Boston Idiots) Cant see a negative in this move...

Keep up the solid under the radar moves Jim

Hit submit too fast. I've heard he is a great clubhouse guy, but not sure how much he would be able to contibute to the team as far as offense goes.

Hopefully Sandberg asked for a drinking buddy down at AAA and he comes no where near the ML roster. I'm afraid with these older guy signings some of the young guys will get squeezed out and will have ourselves some MaGahee and Wuertz questions when they do well when given an opportunity with another club. I know its a minor league contract, but I also believe Lou leans towards veterans when presented a choice. How about some pitching, instead of another backup 1b????

XM Radio is reporting the Cubs are close on a minor league deal with Kevin Millar

Just saw that Suzy, kind of interesting.

Cubs just signed Kevin Millar to a minor league deal...no details yet(mlbtraderumors.com

Two things...

First...Watch Aaron Miles go back to hitting like .320 and coming up clutch all year just like he did with the cards two years ago...so lame.

Second... Athletics just designated Wily Taveras for assignment... Any thoughts on signing him for the league minimum to be the fifth outfielder????

Given the odds that Soriano will likely get hurt at some point and Nady's health is still a concern and I just dont have faith in Sam Fuld in general if he has to start for an extended amount of time (see Fontenot, Hoff,...) He has 50+ Stolen base capability and would be a great asset off the bench and for late game defense in LF or CF.

Those are not pretty numbers. Man has Soriano declined or what?

Levine is reporting that the Dodgers are on the verge of signing Reed Johnson....

1 year/800K.

Two things...

First...Watch Aaron Miles go back to hitting like .320 and coming up clutch all year just like he did with the cards two years ago...so lame.

Second... Athletics just designated Wily Taveras for assignment... Any thoughts on signing him for the league minimum to be the fifth outfielder????

Given the odds that Soriano will likely get hurt at some point and Nady's health is still a concern and I just dont have faith in Sam Fuld in general if he has to start for an extended amount of time (see Fontenot, Hoff,...) He has 50+ Stolen base capability and would be a great asset off the bench and for late game defense in LF or CF.

What's Beane doing? I don't understand that whole trade with Cincy if he were going to dfa Taveras.

Beane was targeting Rosales and he had to take on Tavares' salary to get Rosales. Just like Beane didn't want Miles but had to take him to get Fox. Beane will now try to get whatever he can for Taveres.

The A's just DFA'd Willy Taveras

According to a tweet from Jon Heyman

Hopefully Hendry doesn't find out he is available. The Red's fans are excited to be getting Miles in place of Taveras, so that is pretty scary if you ask me. I think they thought he was lazy. If I recall correctly, I think Hendry had interest in him when he was with the Astros.

I'd rather give the young guys a shot than waste time on Taveras...he'd just muddy the waters more...even Hendry should realize that.

And it appears the A's have tired of Aaron Miles and shipped him to Cincy!

Woohoooo the up and coming Reds just got weaker :)

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/02/reds-as-swap-taveras-rosales-for-miles-ptbnl.html

I feel sorry for the Red's fans if Baker falls in love with him like he did with Lenny Harris and Neifi Perez in Chicago. Need that veteran presence in the lineup you know!

you beat me to it cloy! But I wouldn't be too sure about them getting weaker just yet. From what I've read and heard, Miles's horrid season last year was quite the fluke...he may be primed for a comeback.

Good point.... but liners over his head to the gap in right center is always fun to watch, especially on a division rival.

I'm always amused at how much weight people will place on these projections, as if the people, like Bill James, have some sort of magical insight to what might actually happen. LOL.

I will bet you my right arm that if I took the last 3 years and averaged all the numbers for each guy, I would be within 5-10% of all these projections made by these "experts". BFD.

Point is, it ain't rocket science, but many people treat it as such. Cracks me up.

And Neil, please do not take this the wrong way. You do an unbelievable job, and it's amazing to me that you can write something new everyday in the dead of winter when there really isn't anything happening on most days. The projections are fun to look at, but I just get kick out of how many people will take this stuff as gospel.

just my .02 cents

Looking at these projections and past stats, you can see why Nady will be starting before long. If healthy, he is our 1st or 2nd best OF. Byrd's numbers look good next to Soriano and Fukudome's and the addition of Byrd and Nady, could put some pressure on Soriano and Fukudome to produce more or sit more. And yes, I think Lou will sit both of these guys more this year, once Nady is ready to play everyday. He will have 4 options to match-up that day.

I don't think they will need a 5th OF on the team all the time. Fuld will be needed this year, but I believe will start the year at AAA (barring injury). Baker and Tracy can play OF, then we will not need to carry 5 OF's.

I think these projections also show that Baker played above his norm last year with us. I hope he has created a new baseline for himself and will make it hard to keep him out of the lineup. But I believe his value is at the super-sub role that Dero played.

OF - Soriano, Byrd, Nady, Fukudome

IF - ARAM, DLEE, Blanco, Theriot, Tracy

Supersub - Baker

C - Soto, Hill

That goes back to what I was saying yesterday of who do we need for our 13th bench player. Power bat, defensive wiz (IF or OF), etc. Also we will use 15-20 different position players this year as the year moves on, depending on injuries.

I think a young defenvsive IF player would be the way to go. Fontenot is not the guys, save the million bucks.

2 guys I don't know a lot about coming to camp are Barney and Lalli. Also, this could come from outside the organization with a late pick-up or trade.

I know this posting is about outfielders, but just want to talk about Castro for a second. I know he is coming up as a shortstop, but all the talk is him becoming the second baseman when Lee arrives. It almost seems like the Cubs are not signing a second baseman because they believe Castro will be making the team out of spring training.

Well if the eventual plan is to move Castro to second, why don't they just do it right away rather than have him move to second in a lets say a year and a half when Lee arrives? Theriot does a pretty consistent steady glove there, right?

Castro is way better defensively than Theriot. Blanco in my opinion is our stopgap SS. That is why I say move Theriot to 2B now and use Blanco at SS until Castro is ready.

I dont read much into stat projections....I think looking at each players history you know what you are in for. You can only hope it is a career year on the plus side...as opposed to the negative side.

I am hoping that Soriano bounces back and that having one of the best hitting coaches will assist in that. I think now that we actually will go to spring training without the whole issue of whether he leads off or not will make a bit of a difference. We can finally just omit his stolen bases and concede that his legs are gone. Now hopefully he can concentrate on staying healthy and driving in some runs. If we get 25-30 HR and 80-90 RBI I will be very happy.

Byrd is the one I am most interested in. Will he stay consistent as his numbers were in Texas? I would be happy if he stayed in the .280 to .300 range along with 25-30 doubles and 15-20 homeruns. I'd be satisfied with that.

I like the X signing so long as the Cubs intend to at least platoon him with Fukudome so we dont have to watch that ridiculous wail and bail swing against the southpaws. One thing I note about Fukudome is that in his first two seasons his stat lines were near identical in most categories. However he did increase his doubles last season by 13 to a decent 38. Perhaps he was driving the ball a bit more? Hopefully that trend grows this season and the homeruns increase a bit. Maybe Rudy can work with him to help with that. Combined with the X-Man...we look do be in decent shape in the OF. Unfortunately I do not see X-Man pushing Soriano with the crazy contract that Soriano has left. It would take a complete collapse by Soriano for that to happen.

I think Fuld becomes our 5th OF for late inning defense and a nice spark plug and pinch runner on the bench.

Joe...nice pick-up on Fuko's doubles stat. Even though his stats were roughly the same...he seemed more consistant last year...maybe a function of his Japanese hitting coach and 2nd year acclimation.

Hey Joe, good to see (read) you again.

As for Byrd's .280-.300, 25-30 2B, 15-20 HR...and you'd be SATISFIED??

I'll take the low end of each of those "projections" and be very happy. Take the high end - .300BA and 20 HR - and I'd would THRILLED!

I agree that hopefully with Soriano parked low in the order and not even thinking about running, we have to get at least 30HRs out of him. .265/32/85 would be great.

And I think Soriano can and will do that. What I keep coming back to is how perennially bad the Cubs' OF is. 45HR out of an OF in Wrigley? Unacceptable. Not since Sammy and Moises have the Cubs had a "real" OF of hitters. It has to change. When I think about it this way, what a light hitting bunch they consistently field along the ivy; the Fukudome move dumbfounds me even more. The highest "projection" or, more aptly - Hope on Dome was 18-20 HR. Realistically 14-18 should have been "hoped" for. I just can't get over paying a corner OF 14M$ for 4 years to hit a dozen HRs.

Projections are nothing more than opinions, and everybody has one, like another universal human commodity.

I saw Ernie Banks play his first game as a Cub, and "projected" him to be a duskier-hued Roy Smalley. I saw Wilt Chamberlain play on TV in college, and "projected" that he would make the NBA but never be very good. I said the same thing about Jerry West, "projecting" him to be too slow for guard and too small for forward.

Neil, what projections did these self-styled prophets have for the 2009 Cubs?

Ron, I did not post the PECOTA projections for 2009 because the way the 2008 projections were received.

Here is what I posted a couple of years ago:

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/03/cubspredictions.php

As I mentioned, Larry Bowa once said there are not many games won in December and January. Bowa was responding to projections when he made the statement.

Take them for what they are worth. Sometimes accurate, sometimes ... well, not so much.

2009 is a great example.

And Corey Patterson was projected to be the next Cub superstar.

These projections that give a baseline for a player based on their past stats. Nobody will hit their projections. Some will exceed, and some will fall short. That's what makes the games fun to watch.

These aren't scouting projections.