Baseball Prospectus updated their projections for the upcoming season on Tuesday. After projecting a 77-85 record for the Cubs less than a week ago, PECOTA still projects the Cubs to finish third (tied with the Milwaukee Brewers) in the National League Central but with a 79-83 record.
Baseball Prospectus admitted they made errors in the initial release of their PECOTA projections last week.
As mentioned last week, PECOTA projected the Cubs to win 92 games and their third straight Central Division crown a year ago.
Here is how PECOTA sees the 2010 MLB Season playing out ... after a few adjustments.
National League
East
- Philadelphia Phillies - 88-74
- Atlanta Braves - 83-79
- Florida Marlins - 81-81
- New York Mets - 79-83
- Washington Nationals - 76-86
Central
- St. Louis Cardinals - 84-78
- Cincinnati Reds - 82-80
- Chicago Cubs - 79-83
- Milwaukee Brewers - 79-83
- Houston Astros - 76-86
- Pittsburgh Pirates - 70-92
West
- Arizona Diamondbacks - 87-75
- Colorado Rockies - 86-76
- Los Angeles Dodgers - 83-79
- San Francisco Giants - 82-80
- San Diego Padres - 71-91
American League
East
- New York Yankees - 94-68
- Boston Red Sox - 92-70
- Tampa Bay Rays - 90-72
- Baltimore Orioles - 80-82
- Toronto Blue Jays - 72-90
Central
- Minnesota Twins - 83-79
- Chicago White Sox - 80-82
- Detroit Tigers - 78-84
- Cleveland Indians - 76-86
- Kansas City Royals - 75-87
West
- Texas Rangers - 87-75
- Los Angeles Angels - 80-82
- Oakland A's - 80-82
- Seattle Mariners - 77-85
The CCO will post other projections/predictions for the 2010 season as they surface.
13 days until pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park ... One month from Thursday is the Cubs 2010 Cactus League Opener against the A's at HoHoKam Park.
For all the discussion points yesterday on the $800,000 arbitration gap with Theriot, try being the Giants currently. Cy Young winner Lincecum wants $13m while the team has countered at $8m. Not that's a gap in worth perception.
Does anyone think that if the Giants go to arbitration, that it will hut Lincecum's season? I don't think so. They will use the same anaylsis of the past history to determine the appropriate amount.
Lincecum's agent has no one to compare to - with 2 Cy Young's in 3 years
2008 Pay - $405,000
2009 Pay - $650,000
2009 was after winning the Cy Young and they still only paid him $650,000. He was only making $250,000 more than the bench players. That is the pay system of baseball. The teams have all the leverage early, as the years pass the leverage shifts its way to the player.
This would be a great problem for the Cubs to have, if one of our young guys could come up and win the Cy 2 out his first 3 years.
I don't envy the arbitrators in this one. And I don't believe Lincecum and his agent are willing to negotiate and are not interested in signing a long term contract at this time.
From the "Where ARE They Now?" files.
"We Should Be GMs" is reporting that
"a mulletted, slap hitting second baseman
fromthe fabled year of 1993"... will be a guest instructor at Clearwater.
(Phillies)
Remember Mickey Morandini?
Marmol just signed a 1-year deal. Will post details soon.
Gotta love St.Louis Cardinals - despite recent news:-)