Baseball Prospectus Updated Cubs Win Total for Twenty-Ten

Baseball Prospectus updated their projections for the upcoming season on Tuesday. After projecting a 77-85 record for the Cubs less than a week ago, PECOTA still projects the Cubs to finish third (tied with the Milwaukee Brewers) in the National League Central but with a 79-83 record.

Baseball Prospectus admitted they made errors in the initial release of their PECOTA projections last week.

The Depth Charts are playing time-weighted projections for each player, which builds up to a team projection.

As mentioned last week, PECOTA projected the Cubs to win 92 games and their third straight Central Division crown a year ago.

Here is how PECOTA sees the 2010 MLB Season playing out ... after a few adjustments.

National League

East

Philadelphia Phillies - 88-74
Atlanta Braves - 83-79
Florida Marlins - 81-81
New York Mets - 79-83
Washington Nationals - 76-86

Central

St. Louis Cardinals - 84-78
Cincinnati Reds - 82-80
Chicago Cubs - 79-83
Milwaukee Brewers - 79-83
Houston Astros - 76-86
Pittsburgh Pirates - 70-92

West

Arizona Diamondbacks - 87-75
Colorado Rockies - 86-76
Los Angeles Dodgers - 83-79
San Francisco Giants - 82-80
San Diego Padres - 71-91

American League

East

New York Yankees - 94-68
Boston Red Sox - 92-70
Tampa Bay Rays - 90-72
Baltimore Orioles - 80-82
Toronto Blue Jays - 72-90

Central

Minnesota Twins - 83-79
Chicago White Sox - 80-82
Detroit Tigers - 78-84
Cleveland Indians - 76-86
Kansas City Royals - 75-87

West

Texas Rangers - 87-75
Los Angeles Angels - 80-82
Oakland A's - 80-82
Seattle Mariners - 77-85

The CCO will post other projections/predictions for the 2010 season as they surface.

13 days until pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park ... One month from Thursday is the Cubs 2010 Cactus League Opener against the A's at HoHoKam Park.

Lance Patajo

Gotta love St.Louis Cardinals - despite recent news:-)

Neil

Marmol just signed a 1-year deal. Will post details soon.

SuzyS

From the "Where ARE They Now?" files.

"We Should Be GMs" is reporting that

"a mulletted, slap hitting second baseman

fromthe fabled year of 1993"... will be a guest instructor at Clearwater.

(Phillies)

Remember Mickey Morandini?

Tony_Hall

Does anyone think that if the Giants go to arbitration, that it will hut Lincecum's season? I don't think so. They will use the same anaylsis of the past history to determine the appropriate amount.

Lincecum's agent has no one to compare to - with 2 Cy Young's in 3 years

2008 Pay - $405,000

2009 Pay - $650,000

2009 was after winning the Cy Young and they still only paid him $650,000. He was only making $250,000 more than the bench players. That is the pay system of baseball. The teams have all the leverage early, as the years pass the leverage shifts its way to the player.

This would be a great problem for the Cubs to have, if one of our young guys could come up and win the Cy 2 out his first 3 years.

I don't envy the arbitrators in this one. And I don't believe Lincecum and his agent are willing to negotiate and are not interested in signing a long term contract at this time.

Bryan

For all the discussion points yesterday on the $800,000 arbitration gap with Theriot, try being the Giants currently. Cy Young winner Lincecum wants $13m while the team has countered at $8m. Not that's a gap in worth perception.