Cubs Off-Season Strategies are Off Base

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Baseball teams cannot win the pennant during the winter, but they sure can lose it. The Hot Stove is followed closely by those in as well as interested in the game. Signing and trades are analyzed and broken down by hundreds of pundits, and fans are sent into a tizzy, either positive or negative, based on the action or inaction of their favorite club.

In recent years, the off-season strategies of the Chicago Cubs are questionable, at best. Let's take a look at the past 6 winters, beginning with the end of the 2004 season.

2004/2005: Not only did the Cubs spend 95% of the winter trying to unload Sammy Sosa ... but they fired the best color analyst in the game because he was critical on the players and manager.

2005/2006: In reaction to losing out on Rafael Furcal, the Cubs over-paid to acquire a proven leadoff man: Traded three pitching prospects for Juan Pierre ... and signed Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre to inflated salaries

2006/2007: Spent $136 million on Alfonso Soriano to quiet the masses and move on from a disastrous season

2007/2008: Spent $44 million on an unproven Japanese right fielder to teach the team plate discipline.

2008/2009: The Cubs overreacted to being swept out of the playoffs and set out on becoming more left-handed ... gosh darnit! And to do it at any cost, even if it meant trading the team's most versatile player and clubhouse leader. Not to mention letting the face of the franchise leave via free agency. The solution: go out and sign the most controversial, unstable and combustible player in all of baseball.

2009/2010: Sign washed-up players to minor-league contracts in hopes of finding a new clubhouse leader, and do anything to dump the headache you signed the previous off season.

In all fairness, many minor moves were omitted because the major moves are the ones that are supposed to buoy a club and help lead the way to October. The 2008/2009 off-season stands out the most to me. The absence of Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood in the clubhouse combined with the addition of the outspoken, controversial player proved costly for the Cubs.

Many pro athletes claim winning creates chemistry and not necessarily the other way around. There is probably some truth to this, but when an organization devastates a locker room by removing a key player (or players), bad things can be seen on the horizon ... and bad things were a'comin'.

Hindsight is 20-20, and I was ecstatic about the signing of Alfonso Soriano. He has never been the player I, and many others, thought we signed in November of 2006. Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre had a decent 2006, but again, that was 2006. No pressure when you are on a horrendous team.

Obviously, the removal of Steve Stone has no impact on the players, but it had a catastrophic impact on the fans. I, for one, learned about 75% of what I know about baseball strategy from Stone. His knowledge is superior and his delivery unparalleled.

Kosuke Fukudome has been a bust. There are no two ways about it. His production halfway through a four-year contract leaves a lot be desired. However, if plate discipline is contagious then Fukudome should be thanked for improving the team's overall OBP. Again, though, this is what hitting coaches are for, and not $44 million outfielders.

It is easy to look back and criticize, especially when many people liked these moves when they happened. Many cheered the Soriano and Fukudome signings and Juan Pierre gave us hope of a stolen base or two. However, all three have been failures thus far, and only two have a chance to redeem themselves in blue pinstripes.

The post-2009 strategy cannot be judged until October, hopefully. The headache is gone and that is a good thing, but will the next former-Ranger outfielder be a success or will he also just be waiting until the end of the ninth inning so he can get the heck out of the greatest Ballpark in the country?

Will Jim Hendry be a genius come October? I know many of you already think you know the answer, but then again, that is why they play the game. Maybe this strategy will hit home ... time after time after time.

Until next time ...

Stay Classy Cubs Fans!

  • Joel

    Some decent points here...some not so good Brian....

    Firstly, way too much of an emphasis on Steve Stone, ya he was really good at what he did but if you ever listened to a sox game he has simply turned into a hater and a I think Brenly is better with much more of a personality as well as a great knowledge for the game.

    Also, your comments about Fukudome are unfair as Im sure you know that other teams (including the sox) were offering even more for the guy who was an MVP in the same league that Ichiro, Hideki, etc. came out of everyone knew he wouldnt hit .330 with 40 HRs but it was not a stretch to expect .285-.300, 20-30 HRs and great Defense and fundamentals with a lefty middle of the order bat.

    Also as far as the Soriano signing, I and all of you were exstatic, the guy was a 40/40 player that had NEVER been on the DL... for that kind of talent you must overpay (especially when he is the top guy on FA) The Tribune specifically used that offseason to make a statement about being serious as the sale came near.

    What about him signing Lilly that season while on a hospital bed... and DeRosa (another move that many of us groaned about at the time)

    As far as 2009, who are all of the washed up old players...ya we signed Kevin Millar for a whopping zero dollars, teams do that every season. Chad Tracy is not even 30 and is a great low risk insurance move. He is basically the same age as Hoffpauir but a seasoned veteran with multiple 20+ HR seasons and can play better defense.

    As far as your comments about the 08/09 offseason... Most of our concerns about Bradley were not about his personality as we had been assured by ex-managers and teammates that he was a good guy at heart but they were about his health...

    Letting Wood go obviously sucked as a fan but it really was a smarter baseball move considering his ERA went up a full run and he saved about half the games while seeking a contract that was worthy of an elite allstar closer (which he was not)

    Listen...you are clearly frustrated but its not really fair to cherry pick one or two moves each offseason and make broad comments (like saying the Soriano signing was all that happened in 07 because that was a great offseason).

  • John_CC

    I agree with Brian on Stoney, it was a big deal. Not just because Cubs fans lost a brilliant baseball guy calling their games, because it was the manifestation of the loss of control of a terribly disappointing and mismanaged team.

    As for Fukudome, I think you are wrong, Joel. Defending the signing because the White Sox wanted him doesn't mean anything. So what, since when is Kenny Williams infallable? That is not an argument at all. And as far as expecting 20-30 HR out of him, that is ridiculous too. I remember reading a lot of critics saying 20 would be the highest hope one could expect. It is known that power doesn't translate from Japan to MLB. Matsui was the ONLY player to do, and he was superior to Fukudome and most all scouts saw that.

  • Mark

    Joel, I think, no....I know you are in the minority here. I think you are the ONLY person who thinks your way after reading your comment. Yes, you are entitled to your opinion, but come on!!! Brian hit it ALL right on the nose.

  • Joel

    ya ya you guys may be right but hey... someones gotta be the optimist of the group and I really do think that this team has the capability to surprise some of you, and for all of our sake, lets hope Im right about that much.

  • daverj

    I'm in your corner Joel. I think Brian made some very good points, but overall my views align more with yours.

    As an aside, from reading all these comments, I'm surprised people expected so much from Soriano when we signed him. While his 2009 was very disappointing, his 2007 and 2008 season were pretty much in line with what could expect from a player with his underlying skill set. The 40/40 season in 2006 was not something one could reasonably expect him to repeat ... particularly the steals as he had a ton of caught stealings that year ... a contending team would not let him run that much. .280, 35 Hr, 20 steals would be a much better projection based on his skills ... he didn't quite reach those numbers, but he came close.

  • SuzyS

    David, you're right about expectations for Soriano...But the point is (I think)

    Hendry DID have those expectations.

    Joel...I thought the Soriano signing was a mistake from the very start...I couldn't get past the eight year commitment to a 31 yo player whose game was built on speed...or a free-swinger

    with a high ko rate.

    For me, it's not hindsight...so watch the broad statements that "everyone was

    excited".

    It's kind of like having a presidential

    candidate you don't support...WIN.

    Once he/she is in...no matter what,I hope they do well. Same for Soriano...

    I'm rooting for him...because we're stuck with him.

    btw, his personality and work ethic

    impress me.

  • Bryan

    Joel...you'll always have some comment with anyone who attempts to critique Hendry's performance.

    So be it.

    Eveyone's entitled to the opinion...as are you.

  • SuzyS

    I was curious how Toronto fans were reacting to the Gregg signing...and like everyone else...they're scratching their heads. Toronto bears watching because they truly are trying to get a ss prospect...and as we know...we have several beyond Castro and Hak Lee.

    Here's a good read trying to make sense of the Gregg signing...the author suspects another trade coming...and acknowledges that a "spare part"reliever

    would not net them the desired ss prospect. He suggests the deal could be expanded with a young starting pitcher involved.

    http://taoofstieb.blogspot.com/2010/02/making-sense-of-signing.html

    Are there any starting pitchers Toronto has that might interest JH?

  • Tony_Hall

    Not really. Shawn Marcum and Ricky Romero are their best 2. The only one I would want is Kyle Drabek and I would bet he is not available.

  • woody34

    Neil,

    I remember hearing the Sandberg comment about Coleman awhile back (comparison to Maddux). Maddux didn't have ace power pitcher stuff, he was a control stuff ace. In reality a pitcher like that is like a number two or three starter. Do you think Coleman has the stuff to be an ace? Or a good two or three starter? I am anxious to see Coleman, Cashner, Diamond, Castro, and Brett Jackson this spring.

  • Tony_Hall

    Aramis by far has been the best contract out of all of these. None of the 100+ million dollar contracts are worth it.

    Here is how you rebuild a team.

    Draft and trade for young athletic talent. Tim Wilken's drafts have been much better.

    Let them be brought through the system with good disciplined, old school coaching (Ryne Sandberg).

    Have old school coach become Big league team's manager (2011).

    Keep having a steady stream of young talent coming up to mix with veterans (2010-2014). Keep the elite (sign them to long term deals early) trade off the average players as they start to cost $$ and fill in with younger players. Repeat. Fill-in mid-level to lower level FA if necessary

    Have new owners that are Cubs fans and have no intention of taking money out of the team (Ricketts)

    If anyone wants to look at the past go ahead (but you can't change the past only the future). I would much rather look to the future years. The future is looking good.

  • ripsnorter

    Good deals:

    Well, with so much money involved, none of them are good deals. But looking at it like "which players actually produced at a high level," I'd say:

    CLee

    Aram

    ARod

    Hunter.

    Which players would I want on the Cubs with the time and money left on their contracts?

    Aram

    CLee

    That's it.

  • Tony_Hall

    Here are the biggest deals going back to the 2006/07 offseason

    06/07

    Alfonso Soriano - 136 million

    Carlos Lee - 100 million

    Aramis Ramirez - 75 million

    Barry Zito - 126 million

    07/08

    Alex Rodriquez - 275 million

    Tori Hunter - 90 million

    Carlos Silva - 48 million

    08/09

    Mark Teixeira - 180 million

    CC Sabathia - 161 million

    AJ Burnett - 82 million

    09/10

    Matt Holiday - 120 million

    Jason Bay - 66 million

    John Lackey - 82 million

    My question is, which of these deals ended up being good deals or look like good deals and you would want on your team?

  • agustin rexach

    Barry Zito turned out to be a steal right?

    lol

  • SuzyS

    Augustin...Last night I went back to the beginning of CCO archives...August 05.

    There were actually people clammering for Zito at that time!!!!

    Rip...CLee is really only suited at DH

    at this time...his defense is terrible.

    An outfield can survive with one questionable defender...not more.

    We're at our limit with Soriano under contract for the next five years....

    until the Cubs figure something out

    for him.

    It's the ONLY reason I was so opposed to Dunn last season.

  • Tony_Hall

    Yeah but that was one very large contract, that looked bad before the ink was dry.

  • Tony_Hall

    Also, which contracts would you take with even just the remainder of the contract left.



    Carlos Lee 3 years 56.5 million

    ARoid - 8 years 206 million + $6 million in signing bonus and $30 million HR

    Marketing fund

    Teixeira - 7 years 155 million

    CC Sabathia - 6 years 138 million

    AJ Burnett - 4 years 66 million

    Jason Bay - 4 years 66 million

    John Lackey - 5 years 82.5 million

    And these were the better deals.

    This just shows you that you need to build through your own farm system. Free Agency should be used for mid and lower level free agents. But unless you have the Yankees payroll you can't buy a good team.

  • John_CC

    Sliva!

  • John_CC

    doh!

    Silva, of course - he's ours.

    (but i kinda like Sliva, like is there a sliva of hope in this guy?)

  • SuzyS

    Think you're hot ---- on a Silva platter? lol

  • Tony_Hall

    Here is info on Kevin Gregg's contract. Proof that all GM's overspend.

    The Blue Jays officially signed Kevin Gregg to a one-year $2.75MM deal that includes a pair of club options. The Blue Jays will have ten days after the 2010 World Series to choose between three options:



    Allow Gregg to become a free agent

    Pick up a $4.5MM option for 2011

    Pick up an $8.75MM option for 2011-12



    Of course if this was JH 2011 would vest with 25 appearances, and 2011+12 would vest after 30 appearances.

  • SuzyS

    Tony,

    Consider it a 2.75 mil deal...unless

    Gregg gets extremely lucky in the power

    laden AL East.

    Remember,JH paid Gregg 4.2 million last year...if he didn't have the blown saves

    and 13 HRs...his salary slot would have begun at te 4.2 level....so we can quantify his level of ineptitude.

    4.2- 2.75 equals 1.45 million. He's still lucky for another opportunity.

  • cc002600

    A couple comments:

    I liked Stoney but he's old news now, and to be honest I like Brenley better.

    And I like Len, but frankly, I find him to pretty boring. He's very plain vanilla and is never going to say anything that will upset the apple cart. When he's interviewed on the radio or TV, you can anticipate every answer... very, very dull. I loved Harry, he was soooo entertaining and made every game seem so exciting. And Pat is awesome too.

    Last winter was so incredibly bad, and we all knew it as Jimbo made one horrible move after another. But this winter I think he's done some good things given the box he put himslef into. I really like Nady and he purged many of last winter's mistakes. Adding Maddux and Rudy are positive moves too.

  • ripsnorter

    Nats just signed Adam Kennedy for $1.25 mil to play 2B for them. Frankly he'd be an upgrade over Theriot. .289 11hr 63 rbi and 20 SB last year (with a better sb percentage).

  • ripsnorter

    How the Cubs got Juan Pierre:

    "On December 7, 2005, the Marlins traded Pierre to the Chicago Cubs, receiving pitchers Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, and Renyel Pinto in exchange. The deal was motivated by the Marlins' need to cut payroll after finding itself unable to secure a new stadium deal in South Florida."

  • SuzyS

    Aaron, Mariners just signed Bedard...$1.5 mil base plus incentives.

    (possibly up to $7.5 mil).

    All year I had great doubts about his

    return to effectiveness. I guess we'll

    get to see now...(I still don't know...but I hope he can recover).

  • Aaron F

    OK, I know this is all in the past, but I need to step in and defend Juan Pierre. I can't remember who we gave up to get him, but I know that the priority going into 2006 was to get a lead-off man. 2006 was an absolutely AWFUL season for the Cubs, but Juan Pierre was one of the few bright spots on a terrible team. He did exactly what he was expected to do: .292 BA, over 200 hits, almost 60 SBs, 13 3Bs. Great lead-off numbers....he only scored 87 runs because no one could drive him in! He had a weak arm in the outfield, but that's not what we got him for. No one seems to give Pierre much credit for what he did, probably because there were so many problems with our offense and pitching in 2006. Painful season for the Cubs, but not because of Pierre.

  • Chuck

    Maybe the Cubs should take a page from the Minnesota Twins on minor league talent Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau both came up through the sytem as most of their starting pitchers) and signings. Should be fun at spring training watching JJ Hardy at ss and Orlando Hudson at 2nd base. Look at the Twins budget compared with the Cubs and what the Twins get for the $.

  • patpieper

    The '08-09 off season moves to become more lefthanded, angers me the most. They won 97 games and lost 3 or more consecutive games 5 or 6 times that year. Then they lose 3 games against one of the 4 best teams in the league and they panic.

    Stone, to me, is a classless mope who has taken to bashing and ridiculing the Cubs every chance he gets. Did you ever wonder why he never got a chance to work in a front office despite his many attempts? His act doesn't play well in front offices around MLB.

  • ripsnorter

    Stone is probably bitter against the Cubs for getting rid of him and keeping Dusty & SLeepy Baker. After all, Stone knew what he was doing and saying, and Dusty & Sleepy didn't. But which one did the Cubs' fire? They fired the competent one and kept the incompetent one. Typical Cubs' front office move for the past 65 years.

  • Paul

    Howry was actually good for two of his three years. And Kosuke is actually making $48 million, http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-cubs_112114177768677294.html.

    Also, the Cubs didn't fall short in 2009 because they didn't have Kerry Wood (who pitched pretty badly in Cleveland). The DeRosa trade could have been forgiven if someone was on the roster on Opening Day who could actually back up Aramis.

    Soriano's contract is clearly troublesome. But that offseason also yielded DeRo and Lilly -- good signings -- and Marquis, who was overpaid but fine.

    As for this offseason, the Cubs have done a lot more than getting Kevin Millar and Chad Tracy. They signed Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to reasonable deals and got rid of a lot of dead weight (MB, Heilman, Gregg).

  • ripsnorter

    PLease do not forget that the Cubs' acquired some dead weight (a lot of it): Carlos Silva. Other names maybe be added to this list, too: possibly Byrd and/or Nady, depending on Byrd's ability to hit and Nady's ability to get on the field at all.

  • Mark

    Brian, that was AWESOME! I agree with you totally. Nice piece!!!

  • MEHATEHENDRY

    great post and its quite annoying to think back at all the short sighted moves.

    Are we really going to break camp with Fontenot and Baker at 2B???

    And our fifth starters look like a Marshall/Gorzelany/Smardjiza???

    lets hope this is hendry's last stand and we get a GM in here that knows what he's doing other than overpaying, backloading contracts, providing NTC, and signing guys after Tommy John surgery...

    UGH!

  • PaulS

    I'm hoping Boras has Hendry's ear about Felipe Lopez and Jarrod Washburn in regards to offering him a couple good 1yr incentive no brainer deals. Unfortunately, I don't think Big Jim has any budget left.

    I think Washburn wants to stay close to home and Lopez would give us better options at 2b than Fontenot.

    Move Fontenot and Hoffpauer for the RH reliever he is seeking.

  • SuzyS

    Nice piece Brian,

    Puts JH's history in Focus.

    Paul S. - it will take more than Hoffy and Fontenot (now at 1 million), to land

    a QUALITY reliever....especially when teams know they are on the bubble and

    might be released/optioned.

    MEHATEHENDRY...You forgot Silva :)

    Seriously...I'm hoping Diamond/one of the other guys steps up...because I don't

    think Shark can do it...BUT...I'd love to eat crow (as the saying seems to be on

    this site.

    JW...the financial spigot was really turned off last year, not this.

    Final analysis prior ST...

    We went into the offseason concerned

    about the outfield/starting pitching/

    2nd base.

    Outfield addressed...but still question mark....feel a little better.

    Starting pitching...not addressed...huge

    question mark.

    2nd base...not addressed...key middle infielder in arbitration...whole middle infield in debate.

    FINAL ANALYSIS: Impossible to guage at

    this point...Brian's right we won't know

    until October....(that's if things go right) otherwise I would think late August/early September may tell the tale.

  • scott

    Neil

    Have you read the article in the New York Times by Dan McGrath?

    Its a good read for all, especially the Dempster doubters.

    He very likely was distracted last year.

  • Neil

    Scott, I have not read that article ... but I will.

    Before Dempster came out and said what was going on last year, I tried to mention what he was going through on the site.

    Thank you for letting me know about the article, I will post a link to it.

  • SuzyS

    Scott...can you provide us with a link?

  • Aaron

    I know you asked Scott, but here it is:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/sports/baseball/05cncsports.html

    What an incredible story....I still disagree with spending so much on players coming off career years, but Dempster seems like the real deal...like he's motivated to continue doing well, unlike most players out there.

    I am very proud that he is part of the Cubs family, and I wish him nothing but the best going forward, and hope his daughter recovers from the devastating condition.

    God bless Ryan for being such an awesome (and also very funny) and benevolent person.

    His Harry Caray impersonations are hilarious too:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qk7CX1Ne4nQ&feature=PlayList&p=09A49D35DF0B7BD6&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=2

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0dUzTJUI44

  • SuzyS

    Aaron, I couldn't agree more about Dempster....he's just a quality guy...and I wish his family well.

    Thank you for the link.

    One other note...I said it before...and I'll say it again...This team...from

    A to Z (Alphonso to Zambrano) appears to

    be really hungry and dedicated to success.

    It's an intangible feeling...but it bodes well.

  • ripsnorter

    "2004/2005: Not only did the Cubs spend 95% of the winter trying to unload Sammy Sosa ... but they fired the best color analyst in the game because he was critical on the players and manager."

    Truer words were never spoken.

  • jw

    Good exercise notwithstanding some clarifications listed above. Hendry finally ran out of the easy money this year and the spigot was closed by new ownership. Just like the US deficit, this is going to take a while to fix...(well at least this has the decision making power in one person and a chance of being fixed before the entity is broke) ...hopefully part of the fixing will be to ease this flailing reactionary GM out of the decision making position he has held.

  • Dorasaga

    Brian, your 2007/2008 on teaching the team plate discipline made me roar the LOL.

    I, for one, was all for signing an unproven rightfielder who broke his wrist a few (many, depends on your perspective) months ago. Risk shouldn't be overweighed. High risk, high gain.

    But, I didn't expect more than 10M per year. Fuk is 10% off, anti-value.

    The problem is not all about talent evaluation, but overpaid talents. And again, it's Chicago money. We still sell beef to the world. Oh, wait, no, mad cow...

  • MarioC

    I like how you don't actually name he-who-shall-not-be-named

  • ripsnorter

    I'LL NAME HIM: JIM HENDRY.

  • donmcleese

    cubs didn't fire steve stone. he opted not to renew.

  • Mark

    Huh, I heard through a very reliable source who was on the plane at the time, that Kent Merker and Alou had some unkind words to Stone about Stone sitting with the players on a flight way back from a losing series. That pissed Stone off and probably fuel to the fire. There was alot going on too but shit hit the fan after that. Carry too. Thanks Merker! Alou too.

  • ripsnorter

    Yes, Stone did not re-up when the management climbed all over him. You know, the "You can't fire me! I quit!" type of syndrome.

  • daverj

    Brian,

    You raise some very good points and I agree with some of your analysis. However, my understanding of the Pierre deal is a bit different than yours. I thought JH's goal that offseason was to acquire Pierre to hit leadoff and Furcal to hit second. He was targeting both. The Pierre deal (for better or more likely worse) would have been made even if Jh had signed Furcal ... the trade was not a reaction to Furcal spurning the Cubs for the Dodgers. Anyone else recall the events of '05/'06?

  • Neil

    David, yes I remember the Cubs being interested in both players (Furcal and Pierre) ... thanks Matt, for the 'old school' CCO reference, remember the scoreboard?

    But once Furcal signed with the Dodgers, Pierre's price went up because teams knew the Cubs needed (and wanted) a leadoff hitter (kinda that winter's version of getting more left handed).

    The Cubs interest in Pierre was known but their willingness to pay anything (amount of prospects) increased after Furcal signed.

  • daverj

    It's possible that Pierre's price may have gone up at that point, but at the time, it seemed like a pretty fair deal. Mitre and Pinto were very marginal prospects and while Nolasco was a solid prospect, he was not considered one of the Top 100 prospects in baseball and was generally not even considered one of the top 3 pitching prospects in the Cubs organization (Rich Hill, Guzman, and Mark Pawelek were above Nolasco in the pecking order). I'm not sure how we could have expected to obtain Pierre (then considered a top flight lead-off hitter) for less than the package it took to acquire him. Maybe the more appropriate criticism for JH is that he should have been better able to assess which of the pitching prospects in his organization had the brightest future and that he should have dealt Pawelek, Hill or Guzman instead of Nolasco (though at the time of the deal, almost all Cubs fans would have preferred to send Nolasco).

  • Matt Haggard

    That was indeed the case. You can actually read some of the CCO archives to learn about that situation.

    Reading up on Pierre and Furcal was actually how I found the site.

    Ah, old school blue and yellow CCO. =)

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