Trucks loaded with the Cubs equipment depart on Tuesday from Wrigley Field for Fitch Park in Mesa ... pitchers and catchers report in eight days.
According to a report in the Tribune, Jim Hendry feels "the club significantly improved" from a disappointing season a year ago. Hendry admitted, "We knew a couple of years ago this would be a year a lot of the contracts we did would restrict us."
Hendry explained he "feels good" about the players he brought in and conceded the fact the Cubs need players to perform better than they did a year ago.
The Cubs GM took responsibility, once again, for the decisions he made last winter.
"It's not like we had a lot of room for new bodies. We just needed to get a couple of pieces, and we really think Byrd and Nady are going to help us in a lot of areas, especially offensively. And I'm optimistic some of the people that didn't hit last year will. Rudy is going to help us. I think we're quite a bit better."
Here are the moves the Cubs have made this off-season:
October
21 - Hired Hitting Coach Rudy Jaramillo
23 - Outrighted Bobby Scales to Triple-A Iowa
27 - The Ricketts family took over control of the Chicago Cubs
28 - The Ricketts family first day as the owners of the Chicago Cubs
30 - The Ricketts family introduced as the owners of the Chicago Cubs
November
5 - Reed Johnson and Rich Harden filed for free agency
9 - Kevin Gregg filed for free agency
16 - John Grabow filed for free agency
19 - Traded Aaron Heilman to Arizona Diamondbacks for minor leaguers Ryne White (1B) and Scott Maine (LHP)
20 - Added Blake Parker, James Adduci, Welington Castillo, John Gaub and Rafael Dolis to 40-man roster
20 - Re-signed John Grabow
December
3 - Signed Bobby Scales to a minor league contract
3 - Traded Jake Fox, Aaron Miles and cash to the Oakland A's for Jeff Gray (RHP), Matt Spencer (LF) and Ronny Morla (RHP)
10 - Selected Mike Parisi (RHP) in the Rule 5 Draft
12 - Non-Tendered Neal Cotts (LHP)
18 - Traded Milton Bradley to the Seattle Mariners for Carlos Silva and cash
31 - Agreed to Terms with Marlon Byrd
January
1 - Signed Marlon Byrd
19 - Signed Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot, Angel Guzman, Tom Gorzelanny and Koyie Hill to one-year contracts - avoided arbitration with all five players
27 - Signed Chad Tracy to a minor league contract (includes invite to spring training)
27 - Signed Sean Marshall to one-year contract - avoided arbitration
29 - Signed Xavier Nady
February
4 - Signed Kevin Millar to a minor league contract (includes invite to spring training)
4 - Signed Carlos Marmol to one-year contract - avoided arbitration
From the Rumor Mill
Does Hendry have one more trick up his sleeve?
With eight days before pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park, Jim Hendry told the Tribune he might "do one more thing before camp or during." Hendry is rumored to be interested in adding a right-handed arm to the backend of the bullpen.
The Cubs are said to have serious interest in Jason Frasor (Toronto Blue Jays) and Luke Gregerson (San Diego Padres). If Hendry makes a deal it could cost the Cubs one of a trio of pitchers ... Sean Marshall, Tom Gorzelanny or Angel Guzman.
Well, that's the latest ... and I am sticking to it!
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How JHendry made the Cubs better:
mostly he got rid of players he put on the team last year. Scales. Bradley. Fox. Heilman. Gregg. Miles. [I know that Fox, Scales came up through the system, but both were added to the team in 2009. Furthermore Fox and Scales were not part of the problem for the 2009 Cubs].
As for his acquistions:
We got nothing for Aaron Heilman. It appears to me that neither White or Mayne figures in the Cubs plans for 2010. It also seems unlikely that Parisi will make the club.
So Hendry improved the simply simply by FA acquistions. He got Byrd, Nady, CARLOS SILVA and possibly Tracy for 2010. And Silva probably shouldn't even make the team in 2010.
I do like Nady's bat. It remains to be seen if he can even play the field. I am hopeful Tracy can stick and produce. Byrd is, imo, going to fall off from 2009 to more a predestrian 2010 level: perhaps 12 HR, .270. Not a killer signing, imo. We shall see.
So the team is not significantly improved at all. JHendry "improved the team" simply by undoing his 2008-2009 moves.
Well, as for Byrd, he's been consistently improving with Jaramillo, and we have Jaramillo so he should be nice and comfortable. Additionally, there are a lot of weak 3,4 and 5 starters in the NL central. Why shouldn't he hit better in 2010?
Because there is usually a fall off when one or both of these conditions apply:
1. When a person signs a nice, big, fat FA contract, the next year the player's stats usually fall off.
2. When a hitter leaves Texas stadium, his HR totals usually fall off.
Byrd has both of those conditions.
If your not excited about the future of the Cubs, I might question whether or not you are a true Cubs Fan.
New Ownership - Did you really want Ricketts to come in and make the "big splash" and overpay for another FA. Hasn't everyone complained about the bad contracts. Just say no, works here as well. Develop your own players is the way to go and fill in with FA as needed. But no big FA contracts. Almost everyone turns out bad.
Coaching - Ryno is on the horizon and that is great. Rudy is already here and if you blame coaching for failures, than you should also give credit for bringing in the best hitting coach in the league. If you still don't hit with Rudy, you will be shown the door. Bringing in Greg Maddux is awesome. It has been said that having a short conversation with Maddux about pitching, can change a pitchers career. I am looking forward to seeing what he can do being around in ST. If he gets into the coaching and enjoys it, he could be huge for our pitchers moving forward.
Minor Leauges - I am not going to get into names, but there should be a yearly influx of youthful, athletic players to the major league team.
This is an exciting time in Wrigleyville. Spring Training should be very interesting.
Please don't question the level of "true Cubs Fan" status. Everyone here is a diehard fan...whether we agree in approach, results, maneuvers, etc....and however we voice that.
The future may indeed look more promising, but IMO only if Hendry, Pinella and Rothschild aren't associated with it. Their time is over!
I did say "might".
Everyone is a diehard, but I always thought being a diehard also meant having hope that this could be the year. Some people are so negative on every topic.
By the way - This could be the year!
I totally agree. Most cub fans don't realize that Rothschild is over-rated- Lou won't look at the young ones because he is in love with the vets, & Hendry created a mess he can't fix. Lets pray
Jaramillo lives up to his billing. Soriano, Fukodome & Soto are the ones that can ave Hendry's butt.
Tony,
I do not know if I am excited about Ryno or not. I haven't seen him coach anything just yet. So I am unable to judge whether he is any good or not. Dusty Baker was a horrible manager if one judges him by his ability to match personnel and situations up to the Cubs' advantage. Dusty is well-liked by the players (probably because he doesn't demand anything out of them). When he came here his theme song for the team was "I'll get you the money." Okay, so he is devoted to getting his players richer contracts. Compare him with Tony LaRussa. Tony is not well liked by all of his players. But Tony LaRussa GETS THE JOB DONE. He had the most successful NL team of 2000-2009. More wins. More championships. More WS appearances.
So I cannot say just yet whether Ryno is a great manager. I haven't seen how he puts players in position to succeed.
Rudy: I hope he is all that he is billed to be. I hope he isn't simply a product of Texas stadium. I do know that most of his players have better stats at home than away. Byrd is an example. We shall see how he pans out.
ST: I doubt we have many new minor league players on our Opening Day Roster. Most infield, outfield and catching positions are already locked up--even by your count. Perhaps there's one OF spot that hopefully can play 2B--that's IF we dump Fontenot. Check your own post from the other day. Only in the bullpen is there a possibility of one or perhaps two players making the team. And JHendry wants to trade for another RH bullpen arm.
Starters:
Z, Lilly, Gorz, Wells, Dumpster
Marmol, Guzman, Grabow, Marshall, Silva are virtually locks to make the team.
That leaves two spots: Caridad,Gray? Smardziza is unlikely imo.
Tony, I'm a Cubs' fan. But I am trying to be realistic, too. After 101 yrs of losig, 42 of which I personally have closely followed them, I have become a realist and I am not filled with blind optimism anymore.
I like Ryno. What I have seen and heard, he will be a good Manager, I don't think the media will be any problem for Sandberg.
Youth that could hit Wrigley this Year.
Infielders
Blanco, Castro, Barney
Outfielders
Snyder, Colvin, B Jackson, Burke
Pitchers
Caridad, Atkins, Berg, Stevens, Gaub, Dolis, Parker, Cashner, Diamond, Jackson
I am sure I have missed some names, and performance should be why anyone of them gets the chance to fill in the inevitable open spots from injuries, not hype.
I did not list Samardzija as I think he needs to be told he is spending 2010 in AAA. That he is pitching for a rotation spot in 2011 or a bullpen spot.
We have to have optimism. The past is gone and can't be changed, but the future is in new hands.
My pitching staff
Starters
1) Zambrano
2) Dempster
3) Lilly (when ready)
4) Wells
5) Gorzellany
Bullpen
Marmol
Guzman
Grabow
Marshall
Caridad
Gray
Silva (unless they release him or DL him)
Parisi (unless they give him back)
Marshall would get the starts on April 19, 24, 29 and May 8, 18, 23, 29 until Lilly is ready. If for some reason Marshall is not able to start, I would call up one the young guns to fill in each game. I hope Lilly is ready for the May 8 or 18th start.
My other bullpen arms if they get rid of Silva or Parisi, based on who is throwing best at the time, would be (in no order)
Atkins, Berg, Gaub, Dolis, Parker, Cashner, Diamond (of course there could be others)
I agree with Tony. We are not the Jim Hendry. We do not have budgetary constraints. His signings may not have worked out in the past and may have loop-holed us to sign people now. But the guy works his ass off and wants the Cubs to be better. He works from hospital beds for Christ sakes. He was hamstrung by the budget this year and had no money... Be optimists. This could be the year! Every Cub we have is trying their best out there. And I will damn sure root for them even if they tank and disappoint me, oh well. Free entertainment. It will only be sweeter when they do bring home that trophy!
Tony,
Byrd's stats for 2009:
HOME: 277 ab, .282 avg, 14 HR.
AWAY: 270 ab, .285 avg, 6 HR.
My thinking is that his HR power was a product of Texas stadium. His BB and K's and HBP were virtually equal at home or away. But his power was way off.
I love reed johnson but if Byrd gets 15 dingers its still probably more than Reed would hit, and I don't even really care about the homers. I'd rather he hit for average, but that also remains to be seen.
This shouldn't shock anyone that players play better at home than on the road, but especially when your home park is Texas. Byrd shouldn't be counted on to hit 20 HR's, but 12-14 is in line, with a 280 avg.
Maddux proved his value when he was still pitching. It was true that he coached as a player and when he was on a staff, the entire pitching staff improved from his insight. I would like him to replace Rothschild myself. Maddux has proved his value already.
Byrd: 25 2B at home, 18 2B away.
Slugging: .538 home, .414 away. That's huge! Forgot to mention these facts.
Tony,
Don't forget that the player with stats most like Marlon Byrd in all of MLB (and its history!) is REED JOHNSON.
Read it here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml
Coulda resigned Reed and saved $12 million . . . .
I liked Reed as much as anyone here, but the fact was he could not stay healthy in a part time role, even with his great off season workouts.
What in the past couple years gives you the confidence he could stay healthy enough to be an everyday player?
I think Hendry overpaid for Byrd, as most FA signing that are for more than 1 or 2 years end up. That being said, I don't think Byrd will be with the Cubs for all 3 years and that he will be traded before that 3rd year comes. The only question will be, does he perform enough to make his contract acceptable in trade or will the Cubs have to send cash or better value back to get rid of him. The OF is going to get crowded over the next couple of years.
so far, my prediction is coming true. We now need 4 more comments from Hendry this spring about how we've improved for my prediction to be accurate.
Hendry is a joke, and the Cubs' PR machine has been selling us on a load of crap for a long time now with things like this. Something needs to change. Hendry could say that in 2007 when he essentially made over the rotation and added Soriano and DeRosa to the everyday lineup, but swapping Byrd of Bradley is NOT improvement productivity-wise unless you count it as "addition by subtraction", and losing out on Harden, who, despite his injuries, could absolutely shut down the opposing team, and act as the defacto ace of the team at times is NOT improvement (even though I didn't want to resign him at his asking price anyhow).
I just don't see much improvement. I do, however, believe our bench is better, provided Tracy and Nady are healthy, and assuming that ARAM is healthy, and Fukudome and Byrd resemble everyday player production. If that doesn't occur, then Nady and Tracy are thrust into full-time duty, which would be a downgrade on the bench with Fukudome and Byrd there.
Also, for those that say that we got DeRosa at a similar age from Texas as we got Byrd, you'd be correct. HOWEVER, DeRosa is a fitness machine. He is in tremendous shape, and Byrd keeps ballooning into a 250 lb CF (as of last season). So, if you're looking for a similar success story, I think you're mistaken.
Aaron,
I have a question out of my serious curiosity. I remember you posting a list of players available through trades. How many of them were traded this offseason?
You'll have to jog my memory, but I believe you're referring to:
Hermida-traded to BoSox
Teahen-traded to White Sox
Fields-traded to Royals
Iwamura-traded to Pirates
JJ Hardy-traded to Twins
Granderson (though I mentioned later, was not in my initial list, because I didn't think he was worth a lot of prospects)-traded to Yankees
Kouzmanoff (mentioned during the season)-traded to A's
I can't remember others, but I know for sure those guys were on it and ended up being traded, just as I suspected. Ones that weren't dealt, included:
Rangers: Chris Davis and Mitchell Moreland (though Moreland was a stretch, and I admitted so awhile back, as he is one of their top prospects)
Rays: BJ Upton
Marlins: Uggla. I thought his spat with their franchise player---Hanley Ramirez--was a sure ticket out of town, but I was wrong
Mets: Carlos Beltran. I heard rumors at the outset of the offseason that the Mets were looking to deal him, but never did, and I thought the Ricketts might look to absorb his contract in exchange for the Mets taking on Bradley's deal.
Nationals: Dunn
Rockies: EY Jr., Seth Smith (pretty much everyone on here was in agreement that it'd take a lot to pry EY from the Rockies, and that appears to be the case, and I don't believe they'd even want to move him anyhow)
I called all of those trades (though not specific teams they were dealt to), because I examined rosters, budgets, potential arbitrations, etc. It's not that hard to predict it. You also look at incumbents in player's respective positions, and you can make extremely educated guesses on where they'll end up. Some of it is unpredictable in nature, like, you probably never would've thought Kenny Williams would go after Teahen or even Juan Pierre based on what the team already had, and yet he did. Same for Billy Beane, where he takes on contracts, which you almost never see from him, or the Pirates taking on Iwamura's deal. But if you look at team needs, payroll, options, etc., you can guesstimate where players will end up.
I'm not happy about any of it, because we didn't solve any of our own problems through trade (unless you count the Bradley "addition by subtraction" deal). We had a need for a young CF. We ended up getting an older free agent. We had a need for a solid second baseman. We ended up standing pat, instead of pursuing a trade for someone like Uggla, or even Getz, the guy the White Sox traded along with Fields to get Teahen...or pursuing Fields as a young, power-hitting back-up to ARAM we so desperately needed. Instead, we sign a fairly young (29 yr old) free agent, coming off multiple injuries and horrible stats in the last 3 years. We needed a solid back-up outfielder, and rather than trade for a young guy that was available in trade/free agency, we instead signed Nady, who was coming off a second, and more serious TJ surgery, which almost never works out. Is he solid? Sure! But will he be healthy to last the full season? Almost definitely not.
The players I believe Hendry missed out on, include:
Blalock-back-up 1B/3B, powerful enough so that if ARAM or Lee goes down again next season, there won't be a significant drop-off in production. Sites now are predicting he'll sign for a minor league deal, which is precisely what we just gave Chad Tracy. (estimate would be in the $1 million range for that...I previously estimated he'd get around $3 million or so)
Lopez-back-up at all infield and outfield positions with above average speed, switch-hitting, and above average bat for a utility guy. He will probably sign a 1 year deal in the range of Hudson (estimated around $3 million and under)
Uggla-power bat we so desperately needed on our roster. He would have cost a few prospects, and also $7 million.
Gaub/Russell/Papelbon/Maine-instead of Grabow. All would cost roughly $425k apiece.
The sum of all their likely salaries is $11.425 million.
Grabow-$3.75 million
Nady-$3.3 million
Byrd-$3 million
Tracy-$900k
=$10.9 million
Which group would you rather have?
Gaub, Lopez, Blalock, Uggla...for about $400-500k more
or...
what we have now?
That's precisely my point. You spend your money wisely, and you'll be in a good position. Hendry indicted himself by saying that they knew in advance this year would basically be a lost year improvement-wise due to poor contracts.
We can still sign Blalock to that minor league contract, but I am guessing he is going to sign a minor league contract where it looks like a starting job will open up for him.
Lopez is still out there and will have to come down on his demands for anyone to sign him.
In all honesty, if those were my two options, I would rather have what they have now. I don’t see a significant upgrade and the Cubs keep their prospects and $500k . In your scenario, they would not have a CF.
Have you ever heard a GM come out and say - We haven't improved this team, not sure what I was looking at, but these guys aren't very good at Baseball. Everyone will give you their optimistic view.
He is banking on some comeback years from Soriano and Soto and a healthy Ramirez to bring back the offense. He cornered himself on payroll and it finally caught up with him.
Aaron, No GM is going to say "We suck".
They are always going to make positive statements about whatever they are doing...so I will not fault Hendry for that...and any ensuing statements.
Given the limited payroll flexibility...
Hendry did JUST OK....which is the about the best we could expect out of him...
he could have done better...he could have done much worse.
We ARE improved this season by subtraction and other moves:
1)No wasted time with Soriano in the lead-off spot.
2)(BBB) (Better Baseball Boys?) Blanco/Barnes/Baker are a vast improvement over Miles...and we have them from the getgo.
(Lopez would represent another quantum
improvement...no argument...but if there is no $$$...there is no $$$.)
3)We're improved because I expect Lou and JH to be less patient on the bounceback front...especially in Lou's last season.
Last season, Lou stayed with Soriano forever even though he proved to be an automatic out.
I don't expect them to let that linger
nearly as long...both with the mlb roster options (Fuld/Nady etc) AND
minor options...(Snyder/Adduci/Colvin)
Same deal with Soto...either he produces
or Castillo/Chirinos...possibly even Robinson can pick up the slack with Hill.
Starting pitching IS a major concern...
Will they stay with Silva if he's not
really productive?
(Remember Kenney's "21 million reasons"
comment in the hall at the winter meetings)? Do they have the will to do the right thing?
But even here...we have Diamond/Cashner/Coleman that possibly could make an impact later this season.
At first glance, I agree, there appears to be little improvement. But if you look
a little deeper...I think we are improved.
Not to mention a "hunger factor" I sense
on this team...
The Cubs left a bad taste in everyone's mouth last season...I don't think it'll
play out that way this season...and if it does...like I said yesterday...you
still win because Hendry will be moved
out of the GM's chair.
btw...the correct comparison to DeRo
is Baker...not Byrd.
you're right, no GM is going to say "we suck" or "we didn't improve much", etc.
But you're missing out on the point of it...The point is, GM's don't just come out and constantly say they've improved when they haven't. That's called marketing a crappy product, which the Cubs have done....and done VERY well at that, for many many years now. It's sort of a right of passage now for whomever comes into power with the Cubs organization. It's like they tell them, "every season, you need to say that we improved greatly, and we'll sprinkle in a 'name' player like a Soriano, etc. here and there just to keep fans interested." That's what the Cubs have been like for years, and yet not many fans have questioned it, because of what one of my business professors in college termed the "chink theory", which essentially states that over time, if you keep acting a certain way, or taking away certain things (the example he gave was about the government taking away freedoms slowly, and bleeding you slowly, until one day you wake up, wondering what happened to all of it). Similarly, with Cubs fans, we've been conditioned not to accept winning, but be okay with losing, because they're simply the Cubs, and that's what they do.
My point is that we don't have to, and that Hendry is merely conditioning Cubs fans to think he did a good job by repeatedly stating so. That's the part I disagree with. I do NOT disagree with being positive, but with over doing it
Aaron, I really don't feel Hendry overstated his case here...here is the exact article that ran yesterday...(I should have posted it earlier...but basically the whole article revolves
around his direct quote either 4th or 5th
paragraph.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-100206-chicago-cubs-jim-hendry,0,3343777.story
Understand, I agree Hendry should be replaced with someone that is proactive and visionary rather than reactive and defensive in his moves.
I also believe that he wants to win...believes he's done well with what he has...and really has no clue on how to
get us to the next step.
Suzy ... with all due respect, the link you posted I linked to throughout this article.
Just a fyi ...
If the text is in red on the CCO, that is a hyperlink to a source on the web.
Sorry about that, Neil :)
No worries ...
Aaron...there's a part 2 tomy response as well :).
The Cubs have always had an excellent marketing machine since the Tribune took over.
Ricketts is walking a tight rope this season...he HAS to keep the income flowing while realizing Hendry's prior obligations don't allow him to alter the team much...How do you do that???
It's called marketing....and while I
might agree with your marketing professors in the past...I don't thinkthat's the case just now.
Afterall...Ricketts DID say...any improvements in the team will come from the farm system...in the near term future.
I expect Hendry be replaced in 2010...unless we happen to win the world series THIS Year...and no, in my assessment...we won't quite make it this year...unless the baseball God's are really smiling on us.
:)
sort of off topic. Joe Girardi's contract is up after 2010. Taking the Yankees out of the equation (they'll most likely resign him for big bucks), assuming Joe might still rather manage in Chicago, who do you prefer taking the reigns? Girardi or Sandberg? I think I'd pick Girardi because he's done some really good work at the MLB level with young players, both in Miami and NY. And as Ripsnorter has commented, we just don't know so much about Sandberg. and we DO know Girardi can handle the media. Maybe Ryno could be the bench coach?
Joe...it's like fantasizing about winning
162 games in a season...you can't take the Yankee's out of the equation.
While Diehard is right about Sandberg's
inexperience...we have a body of work to
look at in the minors...and that is pretty favorable thus far.
I don't worry about Sandberg handling
the media...he got some pretty good training at that during his HOF career.
The main reason I ask is that the Yankees have a policy against signing anybody in the middle of a contract. So the Cubs could conceivably talk to Girardi about it at the end of the season before any decisions are made. The Yanks aren't going to extend Girardi's contract mid-season.
Without knowing Sandberg's FULL capabilities...I'd pick Girardi
...In a fantasy sort of way.
But that would po Sandberg...and we'd
certainly lose him...the ensuing PR would be a nightmare for the Cubs.
Sandberg is the right choice...
especially since he has recent
familiarity with the talent soon to
arrive.
Hmmm...World Series Title in 3rd full year as manager vs. AA Championship...
Giardi, joe d. All the way. You can't let your personal feelings get in the way, which is what Cubs fans do all the time, and what they are doing with the Ryno manager fantasizing.
Look, I would love to see Ryno as a successful manager of the Cubs (key word, successful). But it is going to take a little more than a couple years in low minors to prove he's ready. I do hope he gets there.
Well, one thing is absolutely for certain: after the past few months, Jim Hendry is no longer the worst sports GM in Chicago. Jerry Angelo took that ball and ran with it all the way into the endzone, then took said ball, threw it up into the air, and somehow crushed it from Soldier Field all the way to Waveland. Hendry's past two offseasons haven't nearly come close to matching the suck that was Jerry Angelo.
Angelo = Bill Wirtz.
Skip Shumaker, the OF that Tony LaRussa--the-best-manager-in-the-business turned into a 2B, just got a nice 2 yr $5 million contract to continue to play 2B for St. Louis.
Read about it here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/byrdma01.shtml
That's why I say L-O-U needs to think outside the box with Nady. We need his bat. He could possibly play at 2B for six weeks (six innings per game) and contribute with the bat. Otherwise he cannot start in the OF until late May or early June. He'll be out of shape with his bat and his arm both.
Rip...the link you provided takes us to
Byrds player page.
I glad to hear the news about Shumaker...it means St Louis probably won't sign Lopez.
Only saw Lou really go out of the box
last year when he pulled the triple
switch and had Marshall play in the outfield...and that's really an old school trick.
Suzy,
OOPPPSSS!
Try Dees one: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4898684
Rip, no way this team can handle any more defensive woes than what we've got.
La Russa is a freak of nature and does this things a lot...Three Nights in August come to mind where he explains how he did the same with A.Pujols...but that does not mean that Lou should do the same because theese two guys were extremely athletic and good with their gloves. Nady is a HUGE signing but he is not even healthy to practice his usual position at this time, let alone to try a new one. I view Nady like our After the break addition "before the break". If we are in it, he will be a boost and a primary actor and if we are out, he represents one or two good prospects for our farm in a trade.
BTW; JH jury is still unknown...but I feel we are better than last september.
Aaron, This might not be a fair question...because I myself have no clue.
But if Ricketts WERE to move on Hendry...and replace him, other than Epstein, who do you see as a viable GM to replace him?
I guess the real question is...which GM's
do you really admire?????
While posed to Aaron, I would really consider someone like Bob Brenly for GM. Smart individual, can assess talent, and doesn't have baggage behind him. If you can combine him with either Girardi or Sandberg I think we may be on to something. We need new, fresh thinking in the organization.
I admire:
Kenny Williams-In no way shape or form would he, or Guillen, ever want to be with the Cubs, however. I admire Williams, because he's willing to take risks. Consider this...He traded away top prospects such as Chris Young, Ryan Sweeney, Brandon McCarthy, Gio Gonzalez, etc., and most of baseball thought he was nuts. He turned Vazquez (acquired for Young, among others) into Flowers (very good catching prospect), Lillibridge, Santos Rodriguez, and John Gilmore. He traded McCarthy for Danks, and Gio Gonzalez and Sweeney for Swisher, and while Swisher didn't set the world on fire, he still had 24 hr, 69 RBI
Epstein-as you mentioned
Beane-because he's never afraid to deal veterans he knows he can replace internally and re-stock his system
Dombrowski-he's one of the smarter GM's around, and even though his trade for Willis and Cabrera, essentially only netted Cabrera, he gave up Miller, Maybin, Rabelo, De La Cruz, Trahern, and Badenhop, and none of which have even come close to success at the MLB level, except for maybe Badenhop last year. De La Cruz is now sucking it up with the Padres, Rabelo is on the verge of being out of pro ball with his crappy play, Trahern never should've even been considered a top prospect with his splits, and has looked every bit of not worthy ever since the trade, and Maybin and Miller can't seem to put it together. All the while, Cabrera has been an All-Star, and averaged about .300, and close to a .400 OBP with 35 hr, 100+RBI. Even getting nothing out of Willis, it was still a win for Dombrowski. Let's not forget the job he did with the Marlins either. Think about all the trades we could've made throughout the years with Sosa, Patterson, Pie, etc., and we never pulled the trigger. The best trade Hendry ever made was a fluke, as the Pirates, by most accounts, practically threw a malcontent (ARAM) into the deal for Lofton simply to get rid of him and his likely huge increase in salary. The second best deal Hendry made was Choi for Lee. Have we seen anything of note since? That was 2003 and 2004, folks...There have been 6 seasons since. You could call the Nomar trade a win, but since Nomar did absolutely NOTHING for us, and was gone after not even a full healthy year with us, it's a loss altogether, especially since we including a solid Brendan Harris in the deal. You could call the trade for Harden a win for us, but he's gone after 1 1/2 years with us for nothing, and Donaldson and Eric Patterson look like really solid MLB players with Donaldson hitting over .270+ with .370+OBP, 9 hr, 91 RBI last year in AAA, and Patterson hitting .287 with a .373 OBP 1 hr, 11 RBI, and 6 SB at the MLB level and .307, .376 OBP, 11 triples, 12 hr, 56 RBI, and a whopping 43 SB (to just 6 caught stealing) at AAA...you can begin to see what we lost. True, we have significant depth at middle IF in our system, but I'm just saying that he could've been smarter at things like this, such as with Harden...at least offer arbitration to get a draft pick, or trade him to the Twins when they wanted him for prospects if you were scared of arbitration. GM's like Dombrowski know not only how to get full value for their own prospects, but also their veterans, something Hendry has proven he's particularly inept at doing.
Gillick-this would be an interim sort of thing while he grooms a successor. But I've mentioned this before...He took the Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, and Phillies, and turned them into winners. Know what they all had in common before? They were rudderless. They had no farm system to draw from, or a GM that knew how to maximize it. He's won 3 World Series titles, countless division titles, and I believe if memory serves me correctly, 5 pennants, including a repeat World Series appearance last year with the Phillies. He's old, and doesn't want to be GM long-term. I would think a grooming situation would be appropriate.
Daniels-Look at what Daniels has put together down in Texas. It's clear he has the proper foresight to invest in player development, and you can see what they've done with all the players they've developed. He correctly predicted that they couldn't get anywhere with overpriced veterans, so he traded them for significant young pieces like Andrus and Neftali Perez. Look at his first base situation, and pretty much all GM's would be envious of his "problem" with Saltamaccia, Chris Davis, Blalock (last year) and others splitting time there...all capable of 20+hr, 100+RBI, then he's got Justin Smoak and Moreland coming up too.
Jocketty-he won in St. Louis with low payrolls, and while he mostly relied on Duncan and LaRussa, he correctly identified useful veteran free agents they could turn around, and he was masterful at that.
Anyway, these are guys I'd consider. I would want Steve Stone, but he's already come on record as saying it's a young man's job now, and he wouldn't want it. Additionally, I'd like Brenly, but I think he's better suited for the booth or as manager than anything else. I'm also re-thinking my previous opinion that I'd like him as manager, because the more I thought about it, the more I realized he inherited an extremely talented, and veteran team in Arizona...one that didn't need hardly any coaching at all, and won a championship. With the Cubs, it's quite clear we need the coaching (or we wouldn't have burned through 3 hitting coaches in one year), and I just don't think Brenly has it.
So, you had my picks for GM above...here's my picks for manager (in order):
Girardi
LaRussa (though he's already said he couldn't do that to Reinsdorf...going to the North Side)
Sandberg
Sciosia (though he'd never leave Anaheim)
Francona (doubtful he'd leave Boston)
So, basically it boils down to Girardi vs Sandberg, and with the players coming up, plus the mix of veterans, I'd take Girardi any day, because he's shown in Florida he can mold youth, and in New York, that he can mold both. Plus, he's very cerebral.
I doubt this would ever happen, but I think the best coaching staff of all time, might be:
Girardi-manager
Sandberg-bench coach
Maddux-pitching coach
Jaramillo-hitting coach
Dawson-third base coach (outfielders)
Grace-first base coach (infielders)
Dernier-baserunning/instructor (what he's doing now basically)
I hope the Ricketts at least give that some thought...It'd be the most incredible, cerebral combination of coaches in baseball that you'll ever see in your life. The funny thing about it, is they're all relatively the same age too--late 40's, early 50's.
Aaron...with that dream coaching staff, atleast if the regular roster failed you could inject a hell of a coaching staff onto the field as replacements.
Aaron:
In regards to Kenny Williams... Not all of his deals work.
Bridgeport makes the playoffs last year if they don't trade Javy Vazquez and Nick Swisher. The only player of substance that they received back is Tyler Flowers.Like it or not, Hendry is the best Cub GM since the guy who was the GM back in 1907 and 1908. Hendry does drive me crazy with his affinity of 5'9 inch second basemen and bringing wounded pitchers to spring training in hopes of catching lighting in a bottle. But since his first full season as GM in 2003, He has 3 Central division tittles,and 5 out 7 winning seasons. Only a muffed double play grounder prevented the cubs from going to a world series.
Aaron, Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I love your all-time coaching staff...what a great thought...it probably would never quite happen that way...but wouldn't it be fun?
JimC is right about Williams trades not always working...But I love the bold imaginative strikes he makes...usually with no fan fare until it happens.
Epstein/Jockity/Gillick/Dombrowski all
guys you have to respect...I love to be able to hear Ricketts true thoughts when
he turns his attention to Hendry's successor...whenever that might be.
I thought I just read a couple days ago that Gillick took a position with like the Yankees or something like that.
Does anybody remember seeing that?? That's why I would not include him in a short list. Think about this name for a second, even though he has no affiliation with the Cubs other than Bob Brenly - but what about Curt Schilling? In some capacity, maybe not as GM, but like the position Nolan Ryan has with the Rangers. Ryan has his fingers in most moves they make now.
I have a memory of XM reporting Gillick is back with the Phillies as an advisor.
Woody...That list was more of a "GM I admire list"...then a short list forthe Cubs.
Re Gillick...I second Neil's opinion that he took an advisory role with the Phillies.
Re Schilling I'd have to do careful research on him...he had a strong reputation as an "I" guy at one point.
In any case...If you use Texas and Nolan Ryan as an example...would you want Maddux in that role?
Here's a link to how Texas management works with Ryan in the Presidents chair.
While the video is interesting...the article is moreso.
http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/columns=reeves_jim&id=4891508
I misstyped the link...let'stry it again:
http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/columns/story?columnist=reeves_jim&id=4891508
Steve Stone would be the ideal candidate. Yes he may still be peeved with the Cubs organization, but he is a bigger man. He realizes there is a new direction coming, Ricketts taking control, a minor league system that is making strides in the right direction. If he is holding out to become the new Commish of MLB, more power to him and hope he gets that position.
I believe Maddux was hired through Ricketts doing. To come in this year and learn Hendry's job, so he could be handed the reigns for next year. He was one of the smartest players ever to play the game. Doesn't it make sense to have someone with his mind to run the personnel???
PAT GILLICK enough said.
Looks like Cubs are heading to the hearing with Theriot
http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/02/hendry-ready-to-go-to-arbitration-with-theriotuobhearing.html
Why not go out and sign Willy Taveras to help in CF. He is designated for assignment by the A's. He's averaged .268 avg and 30+ SBs over the past 3 years and can definitely play CF, and provide much needed speed. This would allow Byrd to roam around in LF & RF
pretty simple: the cubs have no money left to spend. factoring an increase in payday for Theriot and we really have no money. Its time to stop suggesting signings a be realistic. It may be a move for a reliever and some trades (dumps) in ST and thats it.
Taveras is horrible offensively. Even Dusty Eugene Baker had to part company with his best buddy. He's that bad. Look at these stats:
2009 stats
404 AB 1 HR 15 RBI (Z did better . . . )
Slugging: .285 Aaron Miles like slugging
OBP: .275 HORRIBLE
Even if you have great speed, it does no good if you cannot get on base. FORGETABOUTIT.
Forgot to mention his OBS, the best indicator of a player's value offensively. His was a miniscule .560. A produtive player's OBS is .800+. Comparo Funko .796
Sorry-oh-no .726
Fuld .821
Bradley .775
Johnson .742
Hoffpauir .727
Fox .779
Scales .723
In short he'd be the worst OF we have (or had) last year.
1 HR and 15 RBI's is horrible for a regular player. But let's not forget Taveras was a leadoff man, so his measure of success isn't in RBI's and homers, but rather OBP (like you said), Steals, and Runs.
That said, while he did have 25 steals and 56 runs, which are about what you'd expect from an MLB-level leadoff guy, and both of which were down from what Taveras usually produced (especially when you compare his 25 steals in 09 to his freakishly-insane 68 steals in 08), like you mentioned, he only had an OBP of .275, which isn't really that great (especially considering the leadoff guy we've all looked down on in Soriano had a .303 OBP).
I'd just as well pass on taking the gamble that Taveras would return to his 07 form, or even come close to replicating his 08 form. Especially when you get older, you don't quite move as fast as you usually do, and when your game is predicated on stealing lots of bases, it kills your value (which is why I can't find myself hating Soriano, since even though his legs are going, he can still hammer the ball pretty well).
A few thoughts....
* I do feel the team has improved some since last September.
* I do believe Hendry will be given the resources to add personnel if the team is in contention come July.
* It is hard to predict if this team is playoff caliber, it is nice to know that the minor league talent is starting to get noticed around the league.