According to a report from Bruce Levine, the Cubs and Ryan Theriot have cut off negotiations ... and appear to be headed for an arbitration hearing.
The hearing will likely be held in St. Petersburg, between February 8 and February 20.
Ryan Theriot made $500,000 in 2009. He submitted a $3.4 million figure in his first year of arbitration eligibility. The Cubs offered $2.6 million.
Major League Baseball and the players union usually refuse to give out dates to the media in advance of arbitration hearings. The reason is both sides want the independent arbitrator to not have any knowledge or be able to research the cases they will hear. Arbitrators are given cases randomly on the day the case is heard.
Theriot's agents are asking for $3.4 million. The Cubs' offer was $2.6 million. Only the two sides can settle for a different salary amount.
Once the case begins, the arbitrator must pick either figure, with no exception.
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I think the teams offer is fair and I hope they win.
I agree Jim, Theriot is one of the worst defensive SS in all of baseball. He gives away outs nearly every game due to his minus arm and mediocre-at-best range. If he had a better power bat, then I'd side w/ Theriot. I love the effort he gives, but effort doesn't always translate into performance.
One thing, we need to understand that the club didn't offer 2.6M before Theriot and his agent said: Alright, no more screwing around; enough is enough. JHendry probably offered 2M, or even less on the table.
The Cubs is "presenting" 2.6 to the arbitrator because, after careful calculation, they believe this is the number close enough for the arbitrator to see: market value.
If the Cubs win arbitration, will Theriot be disgruntled and not play to his full potential? I hope the team didn't really cut off negotiations and gives him the pay he wants, and in my opinion, deserves. I mean how does Aaron Miles make , what was it, 2.5 Mil, but the Riot is only worth 2.6?
Theriot will be playing for anothe big raise in 2011. Don't see how it would help his case if he doesn't play up to his potential.
Theriot and his agent cut off negotiations, not the Cubs. The Cubs have a 17 year history of settling. Theriot won't budge so he will go to arbitration and lose, settling for 2.6 MILLION DOLLARS. Don't think there are any losers there.
Also, this is business, not personal. I agree the Cubs have overpaid in the past. But it needs to stop. Their offer is very fair, and the Cubs have always met in the middle.
Because even though Aaron Miles was paid 2.5 million, that was based off of number he should of had not the .190 avaerage that he had.
You cant look at it that way. Aaron Miles "should" of had number that mirrored Theriot's numbers. Maybe less SB and a little off the average. With that said I believe that Theriot is worth 3 Million.
But dont compare Miles numbers to Theriot and figure out how much he is worth.
Andrew Jones had a terrible year last year but was paid 10 million for that year. Does that mean that Ichiro is worth 40 million a year, no!!!!!
Aaron Miles was never worth 2.5mm. He got himself in position for that because of his tenure in baseball. He went through arbitration twice and received the obligatory can't loose raise.
Miles made 400 thousand more than he did with Saint Louis. Hendry's mistake was giving him 2 years instead of 1. If Theriot is basing his raise on Aaron Miles's salary he might want to compare himself to shortstops who have similar tenure.
mlbtraderumors...reported some not surprising news...that the Padres feel they will be unable to afford an Agon extension....and Agons agent expects a trade this off season.
With the Cubs core almost at an end,
not counting our friend Soriano, I feel
the Cubs have to make a play here...even
if the Red Sox is the favored destination...(with better prospects to
offer...as David F has pointed out).
Agon is set to make 10.5 million over the next 2 years. Some combination of ALL
prospects should be in play...along with
some combination off the 25 man roster.
It will be interesting to see what the final price the Pads can exact for Agon...and who wins him.
Amen, sister Suzy! EVERYONE should be in play for Gonzales. There is not a player on the team or prospect in the system that is untouchable for a play at AGon's caliber.
I just looked at his stats again, first, he's just 27, he's played over 160 games each of the past 3 years, and most impressive, last year his walks total jumped to 119 while his K total dropped to 109, he slugged .550 and his OBP rose to .407. He is still getting better. He hasn't peaked yet.
Adrian Gonzalez is a starting first basemen, and as long as the Cubs have Lee we wont get him. Lee is going to be here all season, he has a no trade clause, and he wants to be in Chicago. Aside from that, Gonzalez is owed 10.5 mill these next two years and that does not fit into the Cubs budget regardless of what prospects they give up. He'll sign with a big spending team like Boston, or play this season.
The way he plays next season has nothing to do with this, he will soon be a free agent and teams are paying attention. At any rate; I too believe it is a fair offer by the Cubs but The Riot has the right to double check with an arbitrator... He is a great player and I believe the Cubs are an even better boss. So if the situation needs to be resolved by a third party...its cool with me.
Note; I think JH is terrified of the hearings because he is afraid the arbitrator lowers his salary :p
Besides the process itself, the $$$'s (regardless of outcome) are insignificant.
If the Cubs win, they will save an insignificant amount of $800,000.00
If the Cubs wave goodbye to Fontenot, who I feel has no role on this team, since, Theriot, Baker, Blanco all can play 2B and are better. That will save $1,000,000.00 minus $400,000.00 for a replacement for a savings of $600,000.00, another insignificant amount.
Combined that will be $1,400,000.00 starting to sound like real money, but yes insignificant compared to the millions in wasted payroll already on a $140,000,000.00 payroll.
But, this could turn into real money that could come in handy later this spring or season when trying to make a trade or sign another player. If they use the spot vacated by Fontenot, that would give them $1,800,000.00 to sign a player. Maybe that is enough insignificant dollars to sign a player, who was holding out for a 2 or 3 year deal, for $4-$5 million dollars per year.
I bet we could come up with a good list of players that would fill this need and would take $1,800,000.00 later this month. If only we still had the $$$$$.
Ryan Theriot has been a constant for the team. He actually gets on base and hits for high averages. And the entire time he's played for a low sum of money. He deserves the raise. After years of overpaying players, they finally have one who deserves more money. If Ricketts and Hendry want to get cheap, they deserve this. I think Theriot is totally in the right here and arbitration will get this settled one way or another.
Actually Boseph et. al. Theriot has not been the model of consistency I keep hearing people say. In 2007 he hit .266/.326/.346 - that is a terrible line. He steal 28 bases and was thrown out just 4 times. 2008 was by far his best year with a .300+ BA and really nice OBP of .387, but his base stealing ability has fallen way off. In '08 he was 22 for 35, that's bad. Last year his OBP dipped down to .340, he was SB total declined again (and he was thrown out 10 times) and he struck out 90+ times. Not a good trend.
Now - I like Theriot, and I like the way he plays the game. But he is pretty average and 2.6M$ (actually I've read that Hendry's offer went up but Theriot declined, so you have to believe Hendry tried to meet in the middle - right around 3M$) is a good offer. The whole thing sucks, one side (player/agent) are being greedy, while the organization is trying to prove a point.
I agree Theriot is not worth that much necessarily but I think you were selling him short.
In 2007 it is true that he hit only .266 but if you remember he really tailed off hitting juts .202 in the final month (his BA was much higher before that month) and that could easily be attributed to getting used to the much heavier workload of a first year every day player at the major league level.
He had the 6th highest BA in the national league 2 seasons ago and led the NL in singles for the past two seasons and it is great watching him slap the ball oppo all day at will. He is a great 8 hitter and still a solid top of the order hitter. Yes he has to work on his stealing but he still has good speed and is a definite grinder that will more than likely hit around .285-.300 with 20+ SBs and alotta runs given the offense stepping up from last year. Those are decent numbers for a SS and definitely fits the bill for a stud 2B.
If you want to use 2007, then his angle gets stronger if anything, because from there he's gone up in his production every year. And I don't buy Hendry upping his offer. If they finish at $3 million, that's deserved, but I also have think if they hit $3 million, they wouldn't be here.
I think Hendry was banking on a player taking a paycut because they loved the Cubs. And that only works for so long. Keep in mind, that $.8 figure difference is taxable, so it isn't like he's a multi-millionaire out of all of this: after taxes he might hit about a million or $1.75 million when it is all said and done.
Ryan Theriot made $500,000 in 2009 when playing in 154 games... Backup players like Koyie Hill ($475,000) and Micah Hoffpauir ($407,000) nearly made that much... Even the unproven and pretty bad David Patton (27 innings, 31 hits, 22 runs, ERA of 6.83 and 19 walks), yeah, that David Patton, he made $400,000. Angel Guzman, who hadnt played well or for a whole season in forever until last year was still guaranteed $420,000. The fact that a 3 year starter at SS makes around as much as a backup, or injury prone player isnt right. Theriot deserves a significant raise. You say his OBP is down, but that happens to every player. Jimmy Rollins OBP dropped from .349 in 2008 to .296 last season. Stats wise Theriot has been rated at the 15th best SS in the league last year. He played in as many games as both Jeter and Rollins last season, and despite less at bats he still scored 81 runs and had 171 hits (about 40 shy of a good SS like Jeter), Theriot had 20 doubles, 5 triples, and knocked in 7 homers this season and for a small guy thats not bad. Injury wise, he has been healthy, he hasnt committed that many errors when compared to other SS, and he is the teams only speed. He isnt a big guy so yeah he doesnt hit for the power that Rollins or Jeter do, but he has been a solid average SS. If you want to say his OBP and AVG dropped this season then blame Lou and Larry, after Theriots first homer they told time to try opening his grip and swinging earlier to pull the ball for more power, he showed it with the 7 homers, but thats why his strike out numbers were up. Theriot at least deserves $3 mil, which Hendry didnt offer. Both sides have stayed at their respected spots in this battle. If he offered $3 mil then Theriot probably would accept, but both sides are at a stand still. The Cubs dont think Theriot is worth the money, and thats how Theriot sees it. Fontenot sucks, and Baker is only okay at 2nd base (Theriots natural position), and when Castro moves up to the majors Theriot is getting moved to 2nd where they already have two players so someone is the odd man out and Theriot is better at second so it wont be him. The Cubs are far from having minor league guys move up to the majors at 2nd, so its up to Theriot. Does he deserve $3.4 mil? Is he worth it? Maybe not, but signing guys like Millar isnt worth it either
Liam,
You can't compare what players make in their 0-3 years (prior to arbitration), with what they make during their arbitration years 4-6, with what they make during their free agency period 7-retirement.
0-3 year players make $400,000. The team dictates the salary. The fact Theriot was paid $500,000, shows the Cubs valued him.
4-6 year players have the arbitratio process. This compares like players in the same timeframe (4 years match 4 years, etc). This is where a team has to pay for their past production based on history (most recent is most relevant).
7+year players - Free Agents. Whatever the market will pay or overpay, which is the norm.
If the Cubs thought that Theriot was a cornerstone player they would have offered him a 4-5 year contract, that would guarantee him a lot of money, but would build in guaranteed costs for future years. This is usually done after 2 years, so that you can pay a little more in years 2, 3,maybe 4, but have cost savings in years 5 and 6 and then bypass the first Free Agent year. He is not a cornerstone, nor will he be around in 3 years when he becomes a Free Agent.
Include him in the trade Aaron proposes for AGon.
Try this one on for size ladies and gents...
Arbitration cases almost never turn out well for either parties involved. If the player wins, then management is pissed. If the team wins, the player and his agent are usually pissed, which then could lead to mistrust of management, looking over your shoulder (due to what happens in arby cases when teams submit examples of why you're not worth what you say you are)...
Theriot, Marshall, Guzman, and Jay Jackson
to Padres
for Adrian Gonzalez, and a low-A prospect
What do you think?
We all know the Padres love Guzman. Why in the hell would you waste such a talent (even if he's injury prone) on someone like Gregorson? Why not expand the deal to get what you really need...which is Adrian Gonzalez.
Then, you tell Lee that he either needs to accept a trade, because we're getting younger, or he'll be benched.
All the players I just mentioned basically equal Gonzalez's salary ($4.875 million).
Why the trade works...
1)After trading Peavy, and attempting to trade Chris Young, the Padres are clearly in rebuild mode with their team, and especially their rotation. Marshall and Jackson represent EXCELLENT options for them
2)The Padres are also trying to offload more pricey relievers like Bell and Gregorson, and Guzman is the type of reliever they salivate over (young, hard-throwing, potential closer)
3)The Padres have no decent options at shortstop. The Best they have is Everth Cabrera and a far reach would be Eckstein, who can't play SS anymore. Theriot gives them what they need at shorstop and is inexpensive. Instead of Jackson or Marshall, we might try to include a PTBNL that is a first baseman, among LaHair, Ridling, Hoffpauir, etc., and they get their choice based on who does well in Spring Training. Or, the best case scenario for us would be Lee going back home to the west coast, and playing for the Padres, a team he started with, while we pay half his salary.
To me, that's by far the best scenario, because it does this to our lineup:
Fukudome-RF
Castro-SS
AGON-1B
ARAM-3B
Fontenot-2B (I admit, it's not ideal, but Baker is far more valuable off the bench)
Soriano-LF
Byrd-CF
Soto-C
bench: Hill, Tracy, Nady, Baker, Blanco/Snyder
We have a balanced lineup, and FINALLY a true left-handed slugger that can drive in 100+runs
I just cannot see a way that Theriot lasts through the end of the season with us. With so many second baseman on the market that can hit for power, drive in runs, and play decent defense, PLUS, several in house options coming up like Castro (who can also play SS), Tony Thomas, LeMahieu, Flaherty, etc., why in the hell should the Cubs not capitalize on Theriot's current value?
I admit my trade might be a little far-fetched at first glance, based solely on Lee's previous reluctance last offseason to waive his no-trade, but on so many levels, it makes sense for us. The Padres, clearly in rebuilding mode will NOT pay for Gonzalez's likely salary increase of $10 million+ after this season. The Padres need a shortstop and pitching...it's almost too good to be true.
PLUS, the benefit of eating half (or more) of Lee's salary, not only saves us money, but could save the Padres money to help improve their team, AND we'd then have the money to not only upgrade our pen, but also maybe signing a Hudson or Lopez (depending on their ever-dropping demands as the season draws closer)
I think this could actually work. But Aaron, why would you put Fontenot, average at best glove, below average bat, when you could use Blanco, above average defense (Wow, Castro/Blanco up the middle!! There is not pitcher on the team that wouldn't love that idea.) Blanco has a better bat, (no power).
Include Lee, we pay his Salary minus AGon's so that it costs us the same $$$ for AGon as Lee would of cost us, and the same $$$ for the Padres.
AGon is a difference maker!!!
Theriot is not.
forgot to add, here's the teams almost definitely out of the running for Gonzalez:
Cardinals-Pujols
Brewers-Fielder
Phillies-Howard
Reds-Votto
Yankees-Teixeira
Twins-Morneau
Rays-Pena/payroll limitations
Tigers-Cabrera
Angels-Morales
Red Sox-Youkilis (though he also plays 3B)
Astros-Berkman/payroll limitations/ownership issues
Rangers-Chris Davis, Justin Smoak, and Mitchell Moreland (though with new ownership and not a ton of payroll obligations, it might be possible to trade one of those in a deal)
Pirates-payroll limitations
Marlins-Cantu, plus Morrison and Sanchez on the way
Braves-Glaus, plus Freddie Freeman coming up
Rockies-Helton/payroll limitations
Dodgers-Loney
White Sox-Konerko/payroll limitations (especially after this offseason and signing Peavy as well), but like the Cubs, they'll be shedding Konerko's salary after this season too, so anything could happen
Royals-Butler/payroll limitations
I just listed 19 of the 30 teams that are essentially out of the running due to incumbents at the position and high payrolls.
The Mets, Indians, Giants, Blue Jays, A's, Orioles, D'Backs, Nationals, and Mariners seem like teams in need of a first baseman, though the Indians, D'Backs, Blue Jays, A's, Mariners, and Nationals (who have Dunn right now) are teams that historically haven't spent much money, and even though they spent this offseason, the Mariners appear to have future payroll limitations, especially if they don't fare well this year in the standings.
And so, while I realize that other teams can trade away their current first basemen and/or prospects coming up through their systems for Adrian Gonzalez, it's highly unlikely the Padres could take on huge salary (if their incumbents are highly paid), and teams with young, moderately paid incumbents like the Reds, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, and Royals, will be less inclined to trade their lower paid incumbents for a higher paid Gonzalez, who has similar stats to what their incumbents can offer.
Our chief competition at this moment for Gonzalez would appear to be the Mets and Red Sox (who could simply move Youkilis to 3B), and the Mets have almost nothing to offer in the minor league system.
There are only a few untouchables in our system I'd never trade away, and that'd be Vitters, Burke, Brett Jackson (if he can continue his hot hitting from last year), Hak Ju Lee, and at least one of our higher ranking starters like Cashner. Vitters, by all accounts has one of the sweetest swings in the minors, and while he doesn't walk much...he also doesn't K much either, and he's only 19 years old. Burke and Jackson are keepers, because we need all the young outfield talent we can get.
wont happen bro...sounds sick, but just wont happen.
I agree...sick...I'd take it in a heartbeat but a combo of Theriot, Marshall, Guzman, and Jay Jackson is nowhere near the neighborhood of A-Gon.
A year of Theriot will cost 3. something million alone at the end of the day and Gonzalez is 4. something? Plus marshall's salary and others would mean a higher cost for them...imo it Does not make sense for the Padres.
I guess the Starting price would be Vitters-Castro-Guzman-Hoffy and a pitcher like Papelbon or Cashner...
Believe me A-Gon is a Red Sox by the trade deadline even though I dig Aarons proposal.
Aaron...you bring a smile to my face...the first major trade proposal for 2010!!!
My time is limited just now for reply...but I love the deal with a few reservations...notably Lee's no trade/
Ricketts fondness of Lee...and weakening 2nd base....no way can I open the season with Fontenot...Would I do this deal?...yes, in a heartbeat...but I'm not sure JH would.
The Red Sox have already targeted Agon...
and had talks last fall trying to acquire him I believe he is actually in their gameplan to acquire this season when the Pads are ready.
Our other strong competition would likely come from Texas...where Davis underwhelmed last season and the talk is
he'll be in a dogfight with Smoak this season for 1rst base. The new owners might want to make a splash with the proven Agon...and their farm system is
loaded.
So...yes...this is exactly the type of bold move we'd have to do to acquire
Agon...I'll reply in more depth later.
The problem with this is D Lee... he is the Cubs first basemen now, the organization likes him (including the owners), and the fans like him. Lee loves the city of Chicago, and the Cubs organization. He has a no trade clause, so like Zambrano, he wont agree to a trade. This is also Lee's last year under contract, so why would he ask to be traded? He'll be the Cubs starting 1st basemen next season and the Cubs will either resign him for a few years, or he'll sign elsewhere as a free agent. But we have as much a chance of trading D Lee as we do trading Alfanso Soriano.
Liam, I acknowledge and agree with most of what you said...but disagree with you
in principle.
Unless the Cubs do in fact offer an extension...(without considerable pay cut) it does not make sense for DLee
to remain in Chicago if they ask permission to trade him....But the Cubs won't ask unless it is for a considerable upgrade....AGON is one of the few upgrades worth approaching Lee
about...
The other scenario would be if Cubs
fall hopelessly out of it...(hope not)
and the Cubs send Lee to a contender
so he can finish off his contract
with a chance at a World Series.
So no, you cannot bank on DLee being here all season...and if the Cubs decide he will not be their 1rst baseman in 2011 due to (a) price or (b)age/health
decline in skills etc. Then it does make sense to trade him for value before the trade deadline.
Aaron:
I love the trade. One problem, Derek Lee. Where would you put lee? I would love to see Lee traded which in turn would entice Hendry to trade for Gonzalez.
the padre's will never trade agon. yeah they've dangled him but thats just a tease. AGON is young and powerful and as they are rebuilding the padre's will most certainly make room for adrian in the salary department. He is a player you can build a franchise around. He's basically there Mauer. Homegrown bad ass
sorry...but you're incorrect, here's why:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/feb/03/1s3sullivan/
Padres won't keep him due to price
One other quick thought...with that public statement...all teams will be thinking about it...I'm sure Kenny Williams is wracking his brains about
Agon...but I don't thinkthe White Soz
have the talent to match up.
I understand the rush and love of A Gonz, but there is absolutley no way we would ever end up with him. I don't see us pulling off a 3 teamer to get him, which is essentially what would need to happen, and what is all of the sudden wrong with D Lee? Great clubhouse guy, with a super glove and a offensive threat at anytime, just look at his Cub numbers. I know we want to get young but we also have to look at the facts that we just won't be able to afford Gonz without dumping major salary, that meaning Lee leaving and taking the chance of not signing Gonz as a free agent even if we bail out on other contracts, who could we even ship away or not resign? I personally really like Lee and what he's done for us...give him an extension and worry about a first baseman later on...
Here's why (ages next year):
Lee-34 yrs old; .284, .369 OBP, 28 hr, 90 RBI averages/season
AGON-28 yrs old; .281, .362 OBP, 32 hr, 98 RBI averages/season. In just 4 full MLB seasons, here's his numbers: 24 hr, 82 RBI; 30 hr, 100 RBI; 36 hr, 119 RBI; 40 hr, 99 RBI
Lee, in 13 seasons has just 2 seasons with 30+hr, 100+RBI, while AGON, in just 4 full seasons already has 2 (and narrowly missed 3, by just 1 lousy RBI).
Lee has never reached 100 walks either, while AGON had 119 walks to 109 K's, which is unbelievable.
Oh, Lee also has an injured neck.
Now Aaron...all we need is to get you a direct pipeline to Cubs management toput a bug in their ear.
At least it would get them thinking!!! :)
If we could do that...we might even end up with the EY's of the world!!!
If JH made a trade proposal like the one Aaron suggested, there would be a dialtone as a response. Any talk for AGon would have to start with either (i) Castro plus other prospects or (ii) Vitters and Cashner plus other prospects.
David F. ...in my initial post saying the Cubs must make a play here...considering Dlee is nearing the end...I did say ALL prospects/mlb talent
is in play for a talent like Agon. That was the starting point.
It's a long shot either way...as you pointed out...Boston...and probably Texas
could offer more in terms of minor
league talent....and the Cubs first have to decide whether they will extend DLee
or go in another direction in 2011...If not...AGON should be considered...and yes, our top prospects will be in play...
no exceptions...but then...not all of them either. If you mix in some mlb
talent like Marshall and some relievers...it will reduce the cost
(a little) in terms of top prospects.
I've always thought Theriot @ 2B is a GREAT fit...@ SS...just not what we need. I, for one, can't see how we're complaining about the lack of top of the order 2B w/ a decent bat when...that's exactly what he would be (provided he can make a seamless transition). I say, give him 2 more years of whatever salary he deserves/wants...and when the class of 2012 makes its way to Wrigley, let him go to the Yankees/BoSox for one last big contract.
Liam, sorry to post this alittle late for this post, but could you tell me how you know Hendry didnt offer 3 Mil for Theriot? Ive read what reporters have stated, but I give them about the same credibility as us fans...I would believe the ONLY one who knows who offered who what is one Mr. Jim Hendry...