Hey all long time no chat due to a freaky illness. Guess being a Cub fan has finally affected my heart :) All better now.

So much to talk about but I won't take up too much time. I cannot say that I am optimistic, pessimistic, or indifferent about this team this year. I can say I am excited again. Having the likes of Bradley, Heillman, Gregg, Miles gone are cause for happiness. The fact that specific needs were not addressed this offseason makes me nervous (Especially at 2B).

I think the bullpen will be our strength this year and I do not think it is neccesary to add another, especially at the cost of Guzman! 1 more chance for Angel!

RE: Castro, I really want to subscribe to the "It's too early" camp. BUT, I also want to see a young kid come up and inject some energy to the team. I guess we will see at ST.

On a final note: I have never been more excited to see the non-roster guys at ST.

Castro, Snyder, Jackson, Lahair, Diamond, Cashner, Coleman and Gaub.

Oh the joys of winter fading, warm breezes, bright sun, the crack of the bat, smell of the grass, popping of leather and 7 magic words! Maybe it's our year, maybe yet again it is not, but the team appears "Hungry" and at least we can root for em again (Not like I didn't last year but it was tough)

GO CUBS GO!!!!

Cloy, I am glad you are feeling better. Good to have you back.

As Suzy pointed out, not much of a break ... but now the fun starts.

And to echo everyone's sentiment...WOW NEIL Nice vacation ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Thanks for all that you do! Thanks to Brian for your funny and informative reads, and to all of the CCO contributors, Thank YOU! We have nearly made it through the winter...Buckle up cause 2010 is gonna be fun!

I feel optimistic again. Pundits picked us for 1st last year in the NL Central and the Cards were to be third or fourth with a losing season. That alone inspires confidence (not the Cards, but the accuracy of pundits) about 2010.

I agree with Jim C, I'd rather be like the 2007 team catching an overconfident team napping than constantly falling short of unrealistic expectations. Predictions do not win games, divisions, or series. Lou has always been right about one thing - the goal is to win series - week after week. I hope he will be more driven to play the hot hands and spread the work with this team.

I am glad that expectations are low. Under the radar.

We as a team, have had rotten luck re health issues to our brightest arms.

It would be a real treat to see Guzman finally put it together.

Last year Steve Stone answered one of my email questions and said when he first saw Angel in the minors (before injuries)

He thought Guzman was special and could be Cy Young material....but since the surgeries etc...didn't know what he had left in his arm.

Last season, Angel proved he still had electric stuff...but then had to hit the DL again.

2007 seems like eons ago...but yes I recall that about Dempster. I don't recall the exact blog talk show you are talking about...but then I probably heard it because I miss very few.

And I agree with your take.

Dorasaga...:)))...the Royals are a question mark all over the place. But we should watch them....They got Scotty Pods ...and a few days later signed Ankiel....Off that team for the Cubs...I'd look at Getz and maybe Fields.

Snyder is supposed tobe an excellent defender at all 3 spots.

Our local media pundit, David Kaplan

just picked the Cubs to win 85 games...with major concerns for the pitching staff.

...not enough for the playoffs he says.

---nothing new.

For us to win this year...we have to be

a true meritocracy...(earn it, and you play) and ignore...as best as possible...

contract status.

Suzy, I heard the same from Kaplan ... 85 games.

Thought Sullivan sounded a little tired. Interesting about other teams asking why Guzman was not the closer last year ... while Gregg still had the job.

Neil...to be honest, if not for health issues...I think Guzman has closer stuff without the walk issue Marmol has....and thought so last year as well.

Sullivan did sound strange....I'm sure that's why JH has not pulled the trigger

on Gregerson....the price IS Guzman...with the Padres anyhow.

This is going to be a little different season for baseball...with the financial

frugality teams are already exhibiting.

There will be lots of talent up for trade this season...and any midseason moves could be the difference between playoffs or not.

So preseason picks are suspect other than the obvious NY/Boston teams.

Suzy, I know you are always honest ...

On Guzman, I remember last year toward the beginning of the season Brian and I discussing on the radio show the possibility of Guzman being the closer.

I heard it through the 'grapevine' and caught Brian a little off guard.

Guzman has great stuff and if you think back to 2007, Lou wanted him to be the closer then ... and talked to Dempster about going back into the rotation.

If Guzman is healthy (seems like I've said that about the kid for years), he would be a great setup to Marmol ... better than any option they could bring in.

Suzy,

Maybe we can trade him to the Royals. They are collecting all sorts of veterans right now.

Aaron,

Taking Suzy and PaulS' info. to account, Hoffpauir might be why Snyder is not a preference, yet. Fuld is a proven defensive-replacement. I doubt if Snyder can fill that role.

Didn't Chad Fox never make it to spring camp? But he got a call up. Maybe Snyder and his lefty bat will come to value if Hoffpauir is down.

*Jake Fox

btw...don't forget to check the Community Blog....there's some really well written stories there.

JimC/Diehard/PaulS...Thanks for your responses.

The item that puts doubt in my mind...is the "24 million reasons" statement by Kenney over the winter referring to Milton...meaning he just would not release him or give him away.

Silva's salary (according to Cots)

2010........11.5 mill (5.5 mil from M's)

2011........11.5 mill (3.5 mil from M's)

2012........12 mill (mutualoption)

( 2 mil buyout)

Tatal possible contract value 35 mil.

Minimum Cubs liability 25 mil - 9 mil (M's) = 16 million.

Given Kenney's statement re Milton...I don't think the Cubs will just eat 16 million for Silva...it's too large.

Best case scenario is we salvage some value out of him...and work some sort of a trade this season...so he doesn't block

our upcoming arms later on.

The good news is...all we have to do

is watch for a little while longer...

and the answers will be in the wind.

Thanks for your imput.

Don't count Hoffy out yet, I read on the Sun Times site that he has been working with Rudy on some weekends down in Texas. It will be interesting to see how he responds.

In my opinion, whomever makes the team on the bench, Lou needs to get these guys more playing time so they don't get rusty and the regulars stay rested.

He will go by the wayside like Luis Vizciano if ineffective in my opinion, especially after Lilly comes back.

If the Cubs have one thing in the farm system it is several quality arms and I would hate to see the Cubs hold them up if Silva struggles.

I am a Silva supporter and hope he regains his form to give the younger arms another year to develop but if Silva struggles then I would rather see a young gun get a chance.

Just my two cents Susy.

Neil, you list Silva as a lock to be on the opening day roster if healthy.

My question is,(open to all)....

What if Silva is healthy...but still ineffective? How do you think the Cubs would actually handle it?

Suzy ... sorry for the delay. I agree with Jim, the Cubs will give him every opportunity to stick with the big league club.

As you mentioned, I don't see them 'eating' that contract.

If ineffective he will be DL'd or sent to AAA. No one will claim in on waivers and he would accept the assignment, as any team would expect him to go to the minors first anyway.

Of course he gets paid anyway you look at it.

If I may put my 2 cents in.....

I'm willing to bet Silva will get every chance to make the team as a starter or long man, that is, until he reaches the status of being awful, then they will release him.

Jim C, I think you are on target with their plans. I think if he does struggle early he may end up on the DL to get himself and arm back in shape. If they find something wrong with his arm, then he may have surgery. I have read where he had arm troubles last year, but I guess all they tried was rest. Maybe no structural damage was found. Hopefully he'll be a complete surprise, as this is the type of stuff that needs to happen for the Cubs.

great breakdown as usual! Should be an exciting spring. I would love to see Snyder make the cut but his chances aren't very good, since he doesn't play first or third. I'm wondering if like Millar has been practicing at third base, if any of the other guys, like Snyder, Hoffpauir, LaHair, have done any work at third this offseason? Also did you know Fukodome used to play 3b and some SS in Japan. That is where he started out. I wonder if the cubs had ever considered him as an option to back up thirdbase? I read that about him on Wikipedia. Again Great stuff neil thanks for keeping us informed!

Patrick, you are welcome.

Thank you for bringing that back up about Fukudome. I did know that, here is the article I did about him in October of 2007 ...

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2007/10/cubs_fukudome.php

Aaron, I posted Snyder's winter numbers a few weeks ago...and really like him.

However, forwhatever reason...the Cubs did not put him on the forty man roster...where Colvin/Fuld/Adduci reside.

The key is if Lou has an open mind here...and really gives him a shot.

But it will still be a longshot.

I also like Fuld...but he's a totally different player...and has a different

value set.

One thing for sure...the Cubs management

will have a few difficult decisions to

make amongst some talented youngsters.

Carmen is now on the Schaumburg Flyers of the Northern League by the way...

Also, I think Sam Fuld could play a key role with this club. They lack speed and defense and that's what he can bring as the 24th or 25 guy on the roster. I'd rather seem him get a spot before Hoffpauir.

while I understand it was winter leagues, Brad Snyder, with a .379 avg, .463 OBP, .602 SLG, 16 doubles, 2 triples, 9 hr, and 48 RBI in just 211 AB's and a whopping 18 SB with just 5 CS, should be given every opportunity to make this team.

In light of that, I just cannot see the value of Fuld on this team. I understand he has speed, and in limited time, he had a high OBP in leadoff, but I think people need to put that into perspective. In 5 seasons, he's never had higher than a .378 OBP, (an overall OBP of .370) or 23 stolen bases in a season. Yet, in 28 AB's, he had .286 avg, and .444 OBP in leadoff at the MLB level, so everyone just seems to expect that's the norm, and it's not.

Anyway, I hope Snyder and LaHair are given true shots, because they're far more valuable than Hoffpauir or Fuld in my opinion.

Neil, At catcher, besides Castillo on the 40 man roster...we have Robinson and Clevenger at C.

Robinson hit .310 at AAA last season.

What are the prospects for guys like that?...since they are not invited to

spring training...nor on the 40 man roster.???

Chris Robinson and Steve Clevenger received non-roster invites to big league camp.

This will be Robinson's first with the Cubs. Clevenger's second, he was in camp last year.

I have heard good things about both. I have not seen Robinson play and the only time I've seen Clevenger has been in bullpen sessions.

I think they like both, Clevenger has a good upside but obviously they are higher on Castillo.

I have read that Robinson's defense is behind Clevenger and Castillo. I know Castillo's offensive numbers took a step back but they had him working on his defense.

Clevenger should still be in Baseball America's Top 30 Cubs Prospects when the book comes out next week.

Looking at the position players that will be on the team I get to 11 players.

OF - Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Nady

3B - Ramirez

SS/2B - Theriot, Blanco, Baker

1B - Lee

C - Soto, Hill

That leaves 2 spots open with the following options and minor league options.

Outfielders - Sam Fuld, Brad Snyder, Tyler Colvin

3B - Chad Tracy (1B as well)

SS - Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney

2B - Mike Fontenot

1B - Micah Hoffpauir, Bryan LaHair (OF as well)

C - Castillo

So what isn't covered by the 11 already.

Outfield - Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Nady, Baker, Blanco

3B - Ramirez, Baker

SS - Theriot, Blanco

2B - Theriot, Blanco, Baker

1B - Lee, Nady, Baker

C - Soto, Hill

You can argue that the backup option, you wouldn't want for an extended period, but if a player is out an extended period, you make a roster move with the AAA team.

Which of these players, fit the need of the major league team out of ST.

Outfield - Fuld, Snyder, Colvin

3B - Chad Tracy

SS - Darwin Barney

2B - Darwin Barney

1B - Micah Hoffpaur, Bryan LaHair

C - Castillo

Unless they can trade Fontenot or need the $$ to sign a player, Fontenot will be the 12th player and the last spot needs to be a bat.

Making the roster

Soriano, Byrd, Fukudome, Nady

Ramirez, Theriot, Blanco, Baker, Fontenot, Lee

Soto, Hill

and a bat between Tracy, Hoffpauir, LaHair

I hope they can trade Fontenot and turn that roster spot into a more versatile player that can play SS/2B and OF.

I agree with you that the Cubs need another bat on the bench and in the end I think that will still be Tracy. Tracy is more versatile than Hoff, LaHair, Millar and many of the other young players and he has a lot of experience and brings a potent bat. He would also make a better backup at 3B than Baker if ARAM got hurt again. He should give us good power numbers in Wrigley.

As for Fotenot I agree with you that he will be on the opening day roster unless traded. The only way I see that changing is if Castro makes the team (unlikely) then Fotenot would probably get released.

I still think the Cubs are trying to trade both Hoff and Fotenot for that bullpen arm but we will just have to wait and see.

I think about halfway into ST the Cubs will either pull the trigger on the trade or nothing will happen at all. Only time can tell on that one.

Please note that I left out Kevin Millar, because I don't think he has a chance to make the team and the bat on the bench should bat LH, since we have so many RH bats already.

Castro I believe will play at AAA for around 1/2 season to the whole season, depending on his season goes. If Castro is ready, I trade Fontenot and Castro takes his spot.

Well, Neil...I seem to recall last fall

you said you needed a rest and would only post sporatically for a while...that lasted less then a week...before you started a daily story line.

Somehow, even on the slowest of news days...you managed a storyline...that evoked our hotstove discussions.

Thanks for keeping the Cuns alive...

all winter long.

As usual, good job.

agreed. long time reader but i just registered to post. I read cco in between class and in my slow times. this is the only really quality cubs site around. You have valuable info every freakin day and the responses are awesome. Nowhere on the web are there more knowledgeable cubs fans.

Welcome aboard!! Hope you get a chance to be an active contributor now that you have a account. You are so right. There are a load of knowledgeable Cubs fans who have a lot of passion for the team and Neil really knows how to come up with articles that start the creative juices flowing.

That really creates a lot of lively debates.

Neil's site is AWESOME!!! I wonder if Phil Rogers is still checking in once in a while?

Thank you ... and Welcome to the CCO!

Thanks guys ...

Great Recap of where the team is at going into Spring Training. Thanks for the options info.

I would add Sam Fuld as a lock. Without a doubt, our best defender in the outfield and probably our #1 pinch runner.