Can anyone remember when one of Phil Roger's rumors actually ended up becoming true? I think the only two I give any credibility to in the Cub rumor department are the two Bruce's(Levine & Miles).

Not worth the price of prosepcts it will cost.

Btw...If we got Reed Johnson back...if his back is ok...I'd rather see him than

any of the other "names" we've seen for the bench.

I so much agree with you here. RJ plays with heart and passion and can go get the ball out in the outfield. The Cubs need a guy like that and unfortunately there are not enough around.

I wouild be in full support of Brad Snyder or Sam Fuld and RJ as our reserve OFs. I agree with you I am not liking much of the other names being thrown around.

Bell is a elite closer right now and would supplant Marmol in the 9th if we acquired him. That said, the price in prospects will be likely be too high (he'll cost at least one blue chip prospect) so I don't see a deal happening. Dealing combinations of Fontenot, Marshall, Gorz, and mid-tier prospects is not even close to being a fair deal from the Pads standpoint.

The more I think about our bullpen, however, the more concerned I am. I'm a big fan of both Marmol and Guzman, but I just started going through Ron Shandler's 2010 Baseball Forecaster (which I think is one of the best advanced statistical analysis books for baseball out there) and was surprised to see the numbers on Guzman. His 2009 hit percentage (which is the percentage of hits per balls put in play) of 21% and strand rate of 79% (which is the percentage of runners that are stranded on base) indicate that luck had a lot do with his 2009 success. Unless his skills improve, Guzman is due for a negative correction. Marmol was not as lucky as Guzman, but his peripherals also indicate some luck as well and his 2010 season is likely to be worse than 2009. The peripheral stats on Kiko Calero (who has been rumored to be a target of the Cubs) also indicate a significant amount of luck in 2009 ... his '06 stat of 3.41 ERA is much more indicative of his skill set than his unlucky '07 season (5.75 ERA) or lucky '09 season (1.95 ERA).

On the flip side, the stats indicate that Soto and Samardzija were very unlucky and both of them should improve on their 2009 campaigns.

Sometimes, baseball amazes me. Chapman signing for $30 million with Walt Jockitty and the Reds is just such a time.

The guy hasn't pitched in any level of US ball...has a burner fastball and little else at this stage.

Maybe he'll amaze, maybe not...but just

like Shark or Fukodome...it's a lot of money to gamble on.

Our bullpen is in pretty good shape, we don't need Bell. You can argue the quality of any player, but the make-up of a NL bullpen to start the year should be no more than 4-5 vets. The remaining spots should be young guys. If you have to many vets, you have no flexibilty as the year progresses. You want to be able to rotate at least 2 spots from AA and AAA, to bring up fresh arms and the ones that are throwing good.

Marmol, Guzman, Grabow and Marshall will anchor the pen, with our obligated spot to Gray (unless they give him back, which they won't do) that is 5 guys you that won't be going to the minors, leaving only 2 spots to rotate the young guns.

Soto is our catcher, I don't see him be moved, his value is to low to another team after last year.

Mauer is not coming to Chicago in a trade (wow would that empty the farm) and would cost more money they we have available to spend. Plus, if he leaves Minnesota (I think he will sign an extension) he will be going to NY or Boston, where they can overpay a catcher. Not that he's not great, but not many teams can afford to wrap those kind of dollars in the catching position.

Tony,

At the midseason trade deadline, if Mauer is not resigned by then in Minnesota - look for Minnesota to be trading him. The Cubs have huge money coming off the books at the end of the year. If the Cubs are out of it at the deadline - and Minnesota is in it - but don't want to risk getting nothing in return for Mauer - the Cubs could trade some serviceable pieces to obtain Mauer(Soto, etc). If Hendry plays it right, and the Cubs are indeed out of it at the break and moves every piece he can to relieve the payroll the Cubs could have as much as 75 million come off the books at the end of 2010. Are you telling me that the Cubs could not afford to sign Mauer long term???

Woody 34, I'm curious...where do you come up wit the $ 75 million figure?

Only DLee ( 13 million) and Lilly (12 million) are due to come off the books at this time.

If we were to fall apart...Aramis (16.5 million, 2010) has an opt out clause.

Fuko/Silva are locked into overpaid

contracts through 2011.

Z/Soriano/Dempster have no trade clauses and go beyond 2011.

Then it is possible that DLee/Lilly might be extended.

So where's the 75 million?

In addition, I do believe Mauer will resign with Minnesota...even if he doesn't...the game is harder on catcher's

and he will be over 30...wanting a mulyi-year contract.

If we made a big acquisition this season or next...I'd target Josh Johnson (Marlins), if they don't extend him...

or AGON to replace DLEE.

Suzy,

I am saying if Hendry did it right - yes you have Lee and Lilly scheduled to come off the payroll that is $25 million.

Zambrano could see that the team is changing in front of him and the culture of the team will be changing now that Ricketts will have control - hopefully letting Sandberg take over - definitely won't be Zambrano's cup of tea. He will waive his no trade clause. His $18 million per year would be a nice loss, but we will need to get Josh Johnson in trade and extend him to replace Z.

Ramirez could be off the books at near 16 million.

Right now Fukudome is our lead off hitter, right? If he bats leadoff, and at the break has about 20 SB's and around a .280 avg, with only a year and a half left on his contract, that should make him attractive enough for a contender looking for an outfielder, i.e. Yankees. But 13 million is what he is owed. You take that plus 25 plus 16 plus 18 thats 72 million off the books, minus the difference we have to toss in to make the trades doable.

Add in trading Soto, Fontenot, Theriot, Marshall, etc of the arbitration guys to make the deals to acquire a Josh Johnson/Joe Mauer and that's how I come up with a figure of $75 million. All of those guys could net us a boatload of prospects to do what should be done to revamp this team starting at the midseason trade deadline leading into the next offseason.

There could be a great influx of youth come up with the likes of Cashner, Vitters, Castro etc and build the team around a nucleus of Marmol, Mauer, Johnson and someone like Crawford.

Woody 34...while all that is possible I don't see it as probable.

It assumes the Cubs will really tank...and if that does happen...and it IS possible...does Hendry survive the tanking?...If not, how long does it take to get a new gm up and running to make all those moves?

I agree those are moves I'd like to see.

Heck, I'd like to see Soriano move on...but I don't see it right now.

Fukodome is way over paid at 13 mill per season...the Cubs would HAVE to eat at least 1/4 to half his salary...OR...accept another teams problem in return...ala Bradley....if traded by the trade deadline...it's more probable the Cubs will focus on unloading him next offseason.

In any case, the remaking of the Cubs

will be riveting in the next 2 seasons...and I do hopre they do it right.

I don't see Mauer with us at all...But who knows?

How can you possibly hope to have the trade pieces for Mauer and Johnson while still retaining Cashner, Vitters and Castro??? Fontenot, Soto, Marshall, Theirot, etc are not the types of players you can package for superstars. If you want to get an idea of what it would take to land Mauer and/or Johnson, take a look at the types of prospects that have been dealt the last few years for superstars like Sabathia, Halladay, Holliday (twice), and Tex. Johnson (with a year and a half of team control left) would cost at least Castro, one of Vitters or Cashner, and a couple additional prospects ranked in the top in our system. Mauer (with only a half season of control) would be a bit cheaper ... Maybe Castro plus two prospects ranked 5-10 in our system or Vitters, Cashhner plus one other solid prospect.

This team can acquire most of the pieces needed to make those trades BY trading Lee, Lilly, Zambrano, Ramirez etc. How is it that the thinking is the talent is not there to acquire Mauer etc. In order to go after Mauer if available, Johnson, if available, is by trading away our key talent about to depart before they do. Actually getting something in return for our key players for once than watching them leave and we get nothing in return.

With what we receive in return for Zambrano and couple of little other pieces should net us Johnson. Soto and others should net us Mauer. Minnesota will be looking for talent behind the plate to replace Mauer. Who makes more sense than Soto?

Woody 34, While I'm questioning you...understand I like your thinking...

I just don't see it coming down that way.

I don't either see it happening as long as Jim Hendry is the GM of the Chicago Cubs. The possibility is there however, that these types of moves could happen. Nobody knows what kind of leash Ricketts has Hendry on right now. But if Soriano goes down and either Lee or Ramirez for an extended period of time - the Cubs falling out of it quick could be highly likely.

Ricketts has made a few things pretty clear since taking control of the reins.

1. Accountability

2. Top 5 MLB payroll

3. Getting younger and building a foundation

Maybe, just maybe he knows a thing or two about what would make this franchise succeed in the future and these sort of moves would be the way to do it.

Scotty Pods--$1.75 million is "humbling", he says. Bah-humbug! He's making $1.75 million dollar bills for very poor defense, insane baserunning, and an oft-injured resume. Better make that $1.75, Mr. Pods. It says right here he won't even make 400 AB for the Royals this year. DL time.

I am not adverse to the idea of trading Soto, but I wouldn't do it for Heath Bell. That seems crazy to me.

Woody34,

I'm not sure I'm following you on the Reed Johnson/Marlon Byrd platoon suggestion - they are both RH hitters. Are you suggesting Byrd only starts against RH pitchers and Johnson against LH pitchers?

I misworded that statement, I meant between Reed could spell Byrd in center thus moving Byrd to play some RF against left handers.

Sorry if you have already seen this, I just got it, and it is very much worth 3 minutes.

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/david-kaplan-chicago-sports/2010/01/mike-ditka-gets-angry-in-his-underwear.html

That is really funny.

I've had a helluva busy week and not paid attention to anything...supposedly an anonymous NL team has made a 30$M offer to Chapman...hmmm...the Marlins are looking to lock up Johnson (man, I covet that kid), Vladdy to Texas?...Damon admits he's going to have to take a pay-cut!

I love the Pods contract. Welcome back to planet Earth, gentleman.

I don't like Bell if it cost anything more than Fontenot + low prospect. He just reminds me so much of Gregg. Yeah, he was way more effective closing, but his laser fastball (as in pitching machine straight, not blinding) is a bad bad thing for a closer...as we all know all too well.

And n a Bobby Howry role, I'm afraid he will be too much like, well, Bobby Howry.

I agree we cannot afford to have another Howry or Heilmann. We need someone who can consistently get someone out. Bell would be another gamble. Right now we will just have to wait and see. Like everything else it is just a rumor.

I just noticed on MLB.com that the Padres are taking a look at Noah Lowry. This obviously suggest the Padres maybe interested in a starter/long relief lefty of which the Cubs have a couple. In the event that the Padres may not sign Lowry or the Padres want to look at other options JH could instead dangle Marshall or Gorzelanny since neither one figures prominently in Cubs plans and both basically have the same role.

This would be a fair trade and should be pretty beneficial for both teams with Bell anchoring the 8th inning for the Cubs. Like Woody 34 pointed out, probably Bell will want an extension and also we then have the problem of who will close. This could actually push Marmol to work on his control to cut down on his walks and also give the Cubs insurance should Marmol stumble.

I am also concerned with Bell's age and would instead still prefer JH look for someone between 26-30 with more upside. The only reason that JH would probably consider Bell is that he thinks that some of the young guns will be fully ready in 2011 and the Cubs again do have a solid core in Stevens, Berg, and Caridad and I think I forgot one or two.

I agree with you that if Sotos name comes up again in trade talks for Bell is not in the best interest of the Cubs. Soto has a lot more upside and hopefully after struggling last year he will rebound.

The only reason that the Cubs might be considering this trade is they are possibly contemplating signing a free agent catcher because we sure do not have anyone in the farm system ready to make the step to the ML level. Hopefully though that is not the case as that option will probably cost too much. The biggest problem is that the most attractive options such as Barajas and the Molina brothers are getting old (34 and up) and so are not a very attractive option.

Soto in the trade should not be an option and that is probably why it did not happen sooner.

Keep your eye on Castillo in the minors this season...that combined with Soto's own play will tell us if Soto is expendable....

I know they like Wellington Castillo a lot.

I know what you mean. I keep hearing about Wellington Castillo as an up and coming catcher. The question remains is JH convinced that if he trades Soto will Castillo be ready in 2011 or are there some affordable free agents options out there beside Joe Mauer (I haven't had a chance to do that much digging yet). Also, can JH sign and has enough money and can convince either Barajas or one of the Molina brothers to accept a one year deal which will likely include an option year.

Of the three only Barajas and Bengie Molina are starters and Barajas would likely cost (1 mil) at minimum as he made 2.5 mil last year and Bengie will probably cost in the range of 3-5 mil for a one year deal. Bengie made 6.5 mil last year.

Heath Bell did make 1.25 mil last year and given that he is no longer projected as a top flight CL could help the Cubs to keep his price down along with limiting his negotiating position.

If the Cubs traded Soto then it is possible they could get Barajas at an affordable price within budget and then Barajas could be a solid backup next season if the Castillo becomes the Cubs starter in 2011 or they sign another free agent.

Another interesting point is that Bell on baseball reference.com rates him comparable to Jason Frasor so stayed tuned.

Actually, the whole thing with another

back of the bullpen arm bespeaks a lack of confidence in Guzman/Marmol.

The Cubs have to be careful here...the whole thing for a closer is confidence...

and the Cubs have shown a marked reluctance to just let Marmol fly.

Given his walks last year...it's understandable...but they can also destroy his effectiveness by not standing behind him.

In Guzman's case...it's health...if healthy...there's no one I'd rather

have.

We have a lot of young arms in the system

almost ready to contribute...notably

Cashner has been projected to arrive by mid season...Caridad looked good last season...etc.

So it is surprising to me that JH is focusing in on this area.(From the outside looking in)

I guess he is being prudent...but at

what cosr?

Also, another way I would look at it is the Cubs seem to lack confidence in the options at the back end of the pen such as Caridad, Stevens, Berg, etc. That to me is more of the issue here then the front end of the bullpen in Guzman and Marmol.

I would have to partially disagree with you. The Cubs have made it known since the end of the season that they have been looking for additional bullpen help and that included before and after the Cubs announced that Marmol would be the CL. As I am sure you are well aware of and would agree with the Cubs relief corps in the 6th and 7th innings for the last couple years has been a wreck with Howry and Heilmann.

Bell to me will be more of a replacement for Howry/Heilmann and serve as a backup to Guzman in the event he does get injured or his arm seems weak in ST. I think on the contrary that the Cubs have committed to Marmol and unless he has a complete breakdown the job is his. Bell is probably best now from the 6th to the 8th inning and allows Lou to go with the hot hand. We all know Lou will go with the player that is playing the best and not in his doghouse.

I look at the possible trade for Bell as more of a matter of prudence and establishing depth in the bullpen. We all know many games can be won and loss in the 6th and 7th innings and that is the bridge the Cubs need to fix the most. Getting Bell then would give Lou a lot of options to establish favorable matches between the 6th through the 8th inning that will give the Cubs the best opportunity to win.

If it takes a million for a one year contract to bring Reed Johnson back, I am all for that. We are lacking right handed hitting outfielders throughout the system, a platoon role with Dome or Byrd would be ideal.

The last time Heath Bell's name came into the rumors, Soto's name popped up along with him. Would I want a Soto for Bell swap? Then, I would of said in a heartbeat. But now with the lack of power added, if Soto bounces back a bit, not quite to the 2008 numbers but a medium between 2008 and 2009, we could expect a .260 average 17 HR, 70 Rbi. I will take that out of our catcher spot, but we will not get that production out of Hill/Castillo/Robinson.

I view Heath Bell in the same light as Bob Howry. Howry hit his career skid at the age of 34. He was very good up until 32 and even 33. Heath Bell will be 32 this year. If we get Bell, look for him wanting an extension of at least three years. Giving us another player who will hit their career skid with the Cubs.

Soto actually has decent value at this point for the Cubs lineup. If a deal for Heath Bell is going to require Soto, I say no. If it involved Castillo and Fontenot and another, do it. If Soto starts off on fire, and the possibility to use him later in a midseason trade for Mauer, would be the ideal scenario. The franchise needs another star to fall into its lap (ala Lee/Ramirez).

FALSE...this will not happen. He will require a Kings ransom