Chicago Cubs Projections for Twenty-Ten: The Bench and The Bullpen

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The conclusion of the CCO's three-part series on the Chicago Cubs Projections for Twenty-Ten will look at Lou Piniella's bench and bullpen ... Part one focused on Lou Piniella's starting eight and part two centered on Piniella's starting staff.

Part Three: The Bench and The Bullpen

The bench and the bullpen are the two areas the Cubs have a little bit of flexibility ... and reportedly are still looking to make additions. As the roster is currently constructed, Lou Piniella's bench will consist of Koyie Hill, Andres Blanco, Jeff Baker, Micah Hoffpauir and Sam Fuld. Fuld and Hoffpauir have options remaining while Hill, Blanco and Baker are out of options. Tyler Colvin and James Adduci should begin the year with Ryne Sandberg in Iowa.

The Cubs are reportedly looking for a right-handed bat for the outfield to platoon with Kosuke Fukudome ... Jermaine Dye and Xavier Nady are on the Cubs' radar. Bryan LaHair and Brad Snyder are expected to compete with Micah Hoffpauir for a spot on the bench this spring.

Here is how the Cubs projected bench performed a year ago:

CubsBench-2009stats.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • wOBA - Weighted On Base Average

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

For comparison, here are the projected numbers for the bench from Bill James and CHONE.

CubsBench-ChoneBJ10.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • wOBA - Weighted On Base Average

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

Lou Piniella's pen should have two spots open for competition once camp begins ... again, if a veteran right-hander is not added to the mix.

Carlos Marmol, John Grabow and Angel Guzman appear to be locks if healthy (and in Guzman's case, not traded).

Jim Hendry could deal Sean Marshall or Tom Gorzelanny before the season begins. With Ted Lilly on the shelf for at least the first month, one of the two should be in the rotation with the other serving as the second lefty behind John Grabow.

If Carlos Silva is healthy, he figures to be the longman with Jeff Samardzija either making the Cubs' rotation out of Mesa or beginning the year as one of Ryne Sandberg's starters ... Samardzija has one minor league option left.

Esmailin Caridad turned heads last year and figures to be ahead of Jeff Stevens, David Patton and Justin Berg on the depth chart ... all four relievers have minor league options. The Cubs are very high on Jeff Gray as well but he has one option left and figures to begin the year in Triple-A.

After a starting five of Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Samardzija, the Cubs seven-man pen to begin the season figures to be Carlos Marmol, John Grabow, Angel Guzman, Carlos Silva, Esmailin Caridad, Sean Marshall and Justin Berg.

Here is how the Cubs projected bullpen performed a year ago:

CubsBullpen-2009stats.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings
  • BB/9 - Walks per 9 Innings
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • WHIP - Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitches
  • FIP - Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

For comparison, here are the projected numbers for the pen from Bill James and CHONE.

CubsBullpen-ChoneBJ10.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings
  • BB/9 - Walks per 9 Innings
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • WHIP - Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitches
  • FIP - Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

The Cubs' bench and bullpen, as currently constructed, have a lot of holes. Jim Hendry has quite a bit of work to do before the games actually count.

Note from the CCO: Please keep in mind these are only projections. There is a reason they play the games ... not too many teams perform the way they do on paper.

Chicago Cubs Projections for Twenty-Ten

The CCO will post Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA cards when they are released.

  • John G.

    The Detroit Tigers have signed Jose Valverde. Ron Santo will be so disappointed to see him go to the AL.

  • Joel

    Lou says were gonna be getting some QUALITY players soon:



    “We’re going to add a couple more players before spring training starts,” Piniella said Saturday between sessions at the Cubs convention. “And I would think - how can I say this - there will be significant, nice players. We’re going to add some nice players here. We’re not talking just adding players.





    That is exciting stuff to know that Lou has gone outta his way to tell us that quality not just quantity coming that leads me to believe that either Dye or Nady will be here for sure which instantly makes us much better. I personally like seeing Hendry remain patient and making the right deals for the right cost (think Abreu/Angels, Hudson/Dodgers, Reed/Cubs).

  • ripsnorter

    Joel,

    When Lou said the Cubs were going to sign "some nice players," what he meant was that the Cubs are going to sign some players that have a nice personality, as opposed to Milton Bradley.

  • waldo7239117

    I have quick question: When do the arb elgible players have to be signed before they go to arbitration hearing. I know the arb hearing starts in Feb 1st. Because i see every team signing players that are elgible besides the Cubs.



    This question is open to everybody. Thanks.

  • Neil

    Waldo, arbitration hearings are scheduled from Feb 1 - Feb 21. Players can negotiate and sign anytime before their hearing date.

  • Mike

    Those numbers for our BP do not look promising...as far as the projections, I dont hold alot of stock into what preseason predictions hold, I would just rather wait and see, but how close are the CHONE and Bill James numbers in the past?

  • ripsnorter

    ST is going to be interesting to watch--who makes it, who doesn't make it, and who we might pick up off someone else's trash pile.



    Looking at CHONE vs. Bill James, CHONE is almost always quite a bit more pessimistic than James about Cubs' players production. Of course both are just educated guesses, but their systems do differ by about 10+% it seems.



    Samardzija, unless he changes my mind in ST, probably isn't ready. Steve Stone says the Mexican league is equivalent to Class A ball in the USA.



    I figure that Marmol, Grabow, Guzman, and Marshall are "locks" to make the team. I also figure Silva is a lock to make the team simply due to his contract. That really leaves only two bullpen spots open. If I am right about Samardzija, then there are three spots open on the staff: one starter, two 'pen spots.



    If Parisi pitches well in ST, he sticks because he's a rule V draft pickup. Now we are down to one in the bullpen and one starter. Caridad would seem to have the edge in the pen.



    But a lot can happen in ST. Patton came out of nowhere last year. And what will happen with Mateo? Will he pitch his way on the team this year?



    ST is going to be fun to watch.

  • woody34

    Responding to Aaron from Gregerson post.

    I like that potential lineup with Snyder in right. Now wouldn't that have looked a lot better with Ankiel in place of Byrd. Our lineup is so right handed that inserting Ankiel between Ramirez and Soriano would of been ideal.



    Now by signing Byrd, Hendry has no need for another right handed hitting outfielder. Spend the money on Sheets and call it a day. Give some youth some competition at spring training to fill the last couple spots on the roster, thus giving them the experience for the changing of the guard in 2011.



    I agree Hoffpauir and Fuld would be expendable with the additions of Snyder and LaHair to the 25 man roster. We also should turn somebody, who is close with Samardzija, against him and start having him whisper things like "you know the Bears could really use you on their team". He is getting to be a hinderance with his salary and no trade clause. The Cubs save on his baseball over football bonus - bam there's another 10 million saved. Or just tell him the team is going to put him through waivers if he doesn't waive that trade clause.



    If the Cubs really know about Guzman's arm, and are willing to deal him because of it - then do it for a power hitting utility guy not another right handed pen guy. Give Cashner an opportunity! There is always that one surprise rookie that carries teams into the postseason (ala David Price for the Rays/Dustin Pedroia for the Red Sox). Cashner could be that guy.



    I agree with you Aaron that the lineup should include Vitters if the Cubs are out of it. Lee should be traded as well as Lilly and others at the deadline if that is the case. However, Vitters should be at first base, getting the experience for 2011 season.



    Also, if they are out at the deadline, the Cubs better get a top of the line third base prospect or someone to replace Ramirez, in the trading of Lee, Lilly, etc. - because he will opt of his contract at the end of the year. I sure hope we get something in return for him if that is the case.



    Aaron I am glad someone else can see that giving Brett Jackson a chance to play, like the Sox did Gordon, is a good idea. The only problem is - as soon as he starts to struggle, like Pie and others, Lou will put him in his doghouse - and he will be ruined forever also. So holding Jackson back to stay under Sandberg's tutelage for a year would be beneficial for his career.

  • daverj

    I disagree on Jackson. I don't want him on the field in Wrigley any time in 2009 (other than as a bench guy for September after rosters expand). Beckham is a bad comparison for Jackson. Beckham showed significantly better plate discipline (see his K rates and K/BB ratios) at AA ball than Jackson did at A ball. Beckham's statistical profile was one of a player that might be ready for the majors. Jackson's statistical profile is one of a player with great raw skills that is not nearly ready for the majors. Now all that may change in 2009 if Jackson develops his skills at a rapid pace, but right now, there is nothing to indicate Jackson would succeed in the majors. If the Cubs bring Jackson up too soon and he bombs, Cub fans will turn around and blame the Cubs for rushing him ...

  • matt

    boy are we in trouble

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