Chicago Cubs Projections for Twenty-Ten: The Starting Staff

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The second of the CCO's three-part series on the Chicago Cubs Projections for Twenty-Ten will center on Lou Piniella's starting staff ... Part one focused on Lou Piniella's starting eight.

With Ted Lilly beginning the season on the DL, the starting rotation has as many question marks as the rest of the roster. The Cubs are rumored to be interested in Ben Sheets to fill one of the voids in the rotation. With Lilly and a healthy Ben Sheets, the Cubs could end up with one of the best rotations in the National League.

Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster will anchor the staff out of Spring Training with Randy Wells penciled in as the Cubs' third starter. Wells is projected as a better fit at the back of a rotation, not in the middle of a rotation for a team with aspirations of winning a division title.

Jim Hendry recently said he was comfortable going into camp with Jeff Samardzija, Sean Marshall, Mike Parisi, Tom Gorzelanny and Carlos Silva competing for the final two spots. Another name to keep an eye on is Thomas Diamond ... the former first round pick of the Texas Rangers received a non-roster invitation to Spring Training on Wednesday.

The CHONE projections for the upcoming season were recently released and provide a little more insight of what type of year may be in store for Piniella's starters.

Here's a look at the pitchers Lou Piniella will have to chose from for his starting rotation ... as the roster is currently constructed.

Part Two: The Starting Staff

No one is certain when Ted Lilly will return. The optimistic timetable is mid to late April. Without any setbacks Lilly should return to the rotation, realistically, by May 1. Any setback of more than a couple of days can turn May 1 quickly into June 1 ... that is the problem with shoulder surgery. No matter how hard the player works to get back on the mound, delays can happen.

The Cubs will need Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster to step up ... plus Randy Wells to pick up where he left off last season, something easier said than done.

Here is how the Cubs projected starters performed a year ago:

CubsStartingStaff-2009stats.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings
  • BB/9 - Walks per 9 Innings
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • WHIP - Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitches
  • FIP - Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

For comparison, here are the projected numbers for the starting staff from Bill James and CHONE.

CubsStartingStaff-ChoneBJ10.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings
  • BB/9 - Walks per 9 Innings
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • WHIP - Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitches
  • FIP - Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

Bill James projected Carlos Zambrano to post three more wins next season ... but CHONE is projecting a .500 season for Big Z and a majority of the Cubs staff. The Cubs are expecting a lot out of Carlos Zambrano ... but neither Bill James nor CHONE is projecting big seasons out Zambrano, Dempster and the rest of projected starters.

Note from the CCO: Please keep in mind these are only projections. There is a reason they play the games ... not too many teams perform the way they do on paper.

Coming Soon:


  • Part Three: The Bench and The Bullpen

Chicago Cubs Projections for Twenty-Ten

  • diehardcubfan

    If the Cubs really do bring in Contreras then I am wondering how seriously the Cubs will consider pursuing Sheets. I am thinking they will not even consider it.



    As for Eric Byrnes, the Cubs seriously considered him a couple years back and so if he is released I think it is possible he will be back on the Cubs radar. It will likely be between him and Nady.

  • matt

    who would the cubs trade that would free up some money for sheets?

  • Drew

    Why does it seem like everyone is so down on Wells? I mean the guy was arguably our best pitcher last year and should have easily won 15 games. I mean sure sophomore slump, league catching up to him, etc. but it's like we're classifying him as only a back end of the rotation guy before we even give him a shot. When I think of Wells I think of a gamer. So he may not have "ace" stuff but I feel like he's always gonna give you a chance to win. Sure I would love it if he were our fifth starter and I think we need another starter but when I read that Wells is our 3rd starter I don't instantly panic. Now I panic when I realize that Silva is our fifth and maybe they're correlated. I think our biggest problem is we have 3 number 3 starters and then whatever you classify Zambrano as. We need Sheets to take a page out of the Andre Dawson playbook, sign with us for nothing, instantly revert back to being an ace and magically turn our rotation into our strength.



    Question where is Mark Prior? Is he working out, in surgery as we speak, retired? For all I care he could be attempting a comeback in Antarctica, just curious.

  • cubs1967

    mlbtraderumors states eric byrnes could be released to make room for adam laroche.......so he'd get paid vet;s min of about 400K......

    let's say 4M for tejeda/lopez/hudson/o cabrera....whoever blinks first

    4M for garland

    1M for calero



    there ya go.........9M completes the team.



    that should satisfy the penny pinching ricketts version of let's up tix prices to get better johns!

  • SuzyS

    Josh Johnson just signed a 4 year, 39 million extension with the Marlins...although he was on my wish list for acquisiton later this season...

    I guess we can scratch that idea.

  • agustin rexach

    i wish i was a mlb good pitcher...

  • Tony_Hall

    Not sure if we want to beat the Cardinals on this one. Isn't he 50 years old!!!



    On ESPN -



    The source expects Contreras to sign a one-year, incentive-laden contract with either the Cubs or the St. Louis Cardinals.



    With Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly likely to miss the first couple weeks of the season rehabbing from shoulder surgery, and recently acquired Carlos Silva pitching poorly in the Venezuelan Winter League, Contreras could be a good fit as a fourth or fifth starter in April, before transitioning to a Cubs bullpen stocked with young arms.





  • SuzyS

    I could see JH signing him. Watching him on the southside...we could get a few good months out of him...he's proud...knows a lot about pitching and could teach the young uns' a few things about pitching....going to the National

    league should help him...at age whatever he is...500 K - to 1 millin max...and we'd probably get more out of him then Silva.



    That being said...it's a very unexciting

    low level move...but possibly could pay dividends.



    If Silva is pitching poorly...I hope the Cubs don't put him on the field because

    of salary.

  • SuzyS

    Re Sheets...I see he's pitching Tuesday

    for 10-12 teams...."and is feeling great.



    If he does well...with that type of interest...his discount will not be

    that much.



    I see him signing for a Harden-like contract (7.5 mill...plus incentives.)

    ...and the Brewers to be right there

    to resign him.



    Ricketts has to be concerned re attendence...this may be where Ricketts

    stretches the budget a little to make a splash...and yes...there will be some trades attempted to try to afford him.



    I believe the Cubs have to try...given the projected rotation questions.

  • joel

    Ya i dunno about these projections... I mean they basically just assumed every pitcher on our staff will get worse.



    For some reason, Zambrano's era is expected to go up over half a point to 4.30 when hes never gone above 4 for his career...not likely.



    Dempster is also projected to go above 4 when his era since being moved to a starter for the Cubs is mid-low 3's and he got much better as the year went on and that may or may not have had anything to do with the improved health of his daughter.



    Lilly is also projected to go above 4 which is almost a full run worse than last season and his career era with the Cubs is around the mid 3's, again other than his injury concern theres no reason to assume that.

  • daverj

    Here come the bargains earlier than I expected ... rotoworld.com is reporting that Adam LaRoche has agreed to a 1 year deal with the DBacks for possible $4-5 million. LaRoche turned down a 2 year $17.5 million deal from the Giants earlier in the offseason because he thought he'd get a 3 year $30 million deal. If LaRoche goes for $4-5 million for one year, then Tejada and Damon shouldn't get much more and the other free agent hitters should get less.

  • ripsnorter

    Pretty pessimistic projections from CHONE. No one projected to win as many as 11 games. No division crown if such projections hold true. Lookyhere.



    Z: 10-10 with a 4.28. OK, they believe he's lied about his age--he actually 33 or 34--and further erosion of his skills.



    Dumpster: 10-10 4.12--another 2009 year for him according to CHONE. Reasonable if you think 2008 was a career year for Ricky Eugene.



    Wells: 8-9 4.53 Sophomore jinx ala Soto.



    Lilly: 10-10 4.21 Will not fully recover from his injury.



    Silva: (here's where CHONE overdosed on drugs) 5-7 5.05. If Silva does THAT good, I'd be shocked. And the Cubs may win the division after all!



    Gorzelanny: 8-9 4.41 Yeah.



    Samardzija 3-4 4.57

    I don't have Samardzija ranked that high. How about a 7.63 ERA instead? I have no confidence in him.





  • Tony_Hall

    We do need to have a SP have an above average year, or come up and produce like Wells did last year.



    Zambrano - I know everyone likes to throw out trade options, but until that miracle happens he we will continue to hope for the "Good Zambrano" to be on the mound. We need Zambrano to pitch like he has shown he is capable!!



    Dempster - His contract was a "discount", but was still way to much for the market that followed. I like Dempster, he had a lot of distractions last year, and I feel he will rebound this year.



    Lilly - Let's hope for a speedy recovery. May 1st - would not have to many starts have to be taken by someone else. June 1st will hurt. Lilly will be a big part of the Cubs competitiveness this year and if he is out to long, we will need one of the options to have a very good start to the season.



    Wells - He outpitched the 3 guys above for long stretches last year. His record doesn't even come close to show how well he pitched. Sophmore slump, league catching up to him. Not sure his stuff has overpowered hitters to where these will come into play. I look for a solid season from Wells.



    Gorzellany - Teams #5 starters look like this. If he can eat up innings and give the team a chance to win half of the games he pitches, he will have had a good year.



    Marshall - 2nd lefty in pen, unless Gaub makes the team, then he will be traded. Never really given a chance to stay in the rotation. All teams need a Marshall type pitcher, who will unselfishly go back and forth for the better of the team.



    Silva - I believe will get the few #5 starts in April, unless he looks, well like Silva. I keep crossing my fingers for a few good outing, that a team that needs a SP will take a few million off the books and give us a bag of balls. Even if they cut him, they saved some $$$'s from Bradley, spread the spend over 3 seasons (Silva's 2012 buyout can go on the 2012 season)



    Samardzija - I hope spends the year starting in the minors. But, he or someone else from the minors will be called upon at some point to start. Hopefully they do like Wells did last year, and make it where you can't send them down.



    Lots of Hopes, Prayers, and Miracles. But this is the hand we are dealt. We need to be able to have a couple young guns, show that they are ready soon.

  • SuzyS

    Tony, point by point by point you mirror my own thoughts on the pitching rotation.



    We really need another solid Ace...but that is not in the budget this year.



    If I were to slot our pitching staff into true slots on a solid team.,,,it would look like this:



    "Z" ...more of a 3 spot...sometimes 2.

    Lilly...solid 3 spot...but has performed better for us. (Coming off shoulder surgery he should be slotted at 4.)

    Dempster 3 or 4 slot.

    Wells 4 or 5 slot.

    Gorzelanny...5th or just spot starter.



    The rest...competing for 5th or spot

    starters.



    SP is definitely a concern to start with.

    But the bright side of things is we have a lot of young arms in the minors that could possibly step up and do the job...

    if our starting rotation falls by the wayside...Cashner, Coleman, Blake Parker,

    Diamond...even Papelbon might put it together and give us a Wells-like season.



    Lou stated yesterday he expects us to win

    the division...I'm not saying this can't happen...we do have a lot of talent...but there are a ton of question marks.



    Last season, the Cards were considered

    second rate and did very little in the off season to improve....They couldn't even get the closer they wanted and converted Franklin.



    The Baseball God's smiled on them...and they made their improvements mid-season.



    We definitely need a smiling Baseball God on our side this season.

  • Bryan

    Agreed...but as we know, the Cardinals had LaRussa and Duncan continuing to get the most from their talent base v. our duo of Lou "I don't know what to do" Pinella and Larry "let me destroy another pitchers career" Rothschild.



    I think Lou will sleepwalk thru another campaign, and may not make it thru the entire season.

  • SuzyS

    Bryan, wile you migt be right re Lou...the opposite may occur...knowing it's his last campaign,



    Another point to ponder is how much energy and distraction was dealing with Milton on a daily basis for Lou.



    Without the constant tiptoe act around Milton...he might focus better on baseball.



    I also think he won't wait as long to make moves...ie if Soriano gets into

    a constant "swing at the dirt" groove...

    He'll be more likely to replace him quicker.



    It all depends on how we start off...it can snowball either way. The fans won't be patient with a poor start this year...and if seats begin to empty early in the season...I see Lou picking up a fishing pole...and the Sandberg era beginning....just to boost ticket sales.

  • woody34

    Those numbers scream mediocre staff which equals mediocre team. Based on those numbers the starting rotation will get around 62 wins. So we need 30+ wins from our bullpen this year to make it in the playoffs. HA! 82 wins is about what this team will win this year as currently constructed. A top tier rotation should look like the following:



    1) 18 - 20 wins (Carpenter, 17/Sabathia,19)

    2 or 1A) 16 - 18 wins (i.e. Wainwright, 19/Feldman, 17)

    3) 14 - 16 wins (Petite 14, Piniero,15)

    4) 10-12 wins (Porcello,14 Blanton, 12)

    5) 10 wins (Wells, 12/Zito, 10)



    A top tier rotation that has World Series aspirations should be getting 75 wins out of their starting 5. It's a good thing we have some bullpen depth in the other levels, because there will be some burnt out arms with the big club this season.



    This team needs a shot from somewhere. A World Series team usually has a high risk/high reward type player, or a young stud come thru for the team come playoff time. Remember David Price with the Rays, or how about Brenly's Dbacks - Batista and Kim. The last two years the Cubs took a chance on a high risk/reward pitcher in Harden. He was not his greatest with us, but when he was on it was lights out.



    The Cubs need Ben Sheets in the 2010 rotation. Hendry should do what is needed for this - tell Ben hey if everything works out, the following offseason you get one last big contract - and a playoff contending team with you on it, sign this one year incentive deal - we pay you 2 million guaranteed and you can earn up to 4 million in incentives. Then we discuss moving forward with each other, or we can give you the chance to go earn that big money deal.



    Besides a major trade, there is not a better pitcher on the market. Yes his win totals, and numbers have not been the greatest, but he is a horse that played for some very bad defensive and offensive teams with the Brewers.

  • Tony_Hall

    In comparison - the Yankees last year. Had a pretty good year.



    Their staff



    Sabathia - 19 Wins - 34 starts

    Pettitte - 14 wins - 32 starts

    Burnett - 13 wins - 33 starts

    Joba - 9 wins - 31 starts

    Wang - 1 win - 9 starts

    Hughes - 3 wins - 7 starts

    Gaudin - 1 wins - 6 starts

    Mitre - 3 wins - 9 starts

    Aceves - 0 wins - 1 starts



    9 different starters

    4 guys for 130 start

    Those 4 guys had 55 wins



    They then used 5 guys for 32 starts

    To get 8 wins



    I only took the wins the guys had when they started games, not in relief



    Total Wins from the 9 starters 63 Wins.



    This is in the AL where teams don't take out pitchers for pinch hitters, allowing SP to stay in games longer. This is also pitching for the Yankees Lineup.



    They used 4 guys and filled in the 5th spot as the season moved forward.



    I would be happy if Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Wells, Gorzellany can give us 150 starts and produce 55 wins.

  • D White

    I'm so excited I finally got to post a first comment! I feel rellivant to this blog now :)! Bring in Sheets because the guys fighting for the final two spots don't cut it! I don't care if it's only for a month.

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