Pitchers and catchers report to Fitch Park on February 17. That is just 37 days for those scoring at home. The 2010 baseball season is quickly approaching and the first sign spring is around the corner begins on Friday ... Harry Caray referred to the Cubs Convention as the "Unofficial Opening Day."
Jim Hendry recently said he's not done tinkering with his roster. But how will the players currently on the Cubs 40-man roster perform next season? That is the big question.
The CHONE projections for the upcoming season were recently released and provide a little more insight of what type of year is in store for the Chicago Cubs.
In the coming days the CCO will look at the 2010 projections for the players on the 40-man roster. In the first of a three-part series here's a look at Lou Piniella's starting eight ...
Part One: The Starting Eight
Since the Cubs signed Marlon Byrd, there has been speculation on Lou Piniella's Opening Day lineup. As the roster is currently constructed, the starting eight is all but set with the exception of second base.
Many feel Piniella will begin the year with Mike Fontenot at second base against right- handers. Fontenot and Kosuke Fukudome would be the only lefties in the lineup.
Jeff Baker would be Fontenot's platoon partner while serving as the backup to Aramis Ramirez ... as well as picking up a little time in the outfield.
Here is how the Cubs' starting eight performed a year ago:
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- wOBA - Weighted On Base Average
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
Here are the projected numbers for the starting eight from Bill James and CHONE ... for comparison.
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- wOBA - Weighted On Base Average
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
The Cubs' offense is projected to perform better in 2010, even with Derrek Lee taking a step back. There are several factors, namely keeping Aramis Ramirez healthy and in the lineup for the full season.
Both Bill James and CHONE projects better years for Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot ... with Kosuke Fukudome and Marlon Byrd putting up similar numbers as last season.
The Cubs scored 855 runs in 2008 and dropped to 707 in 2009 ... 12th in the National League.
The Cubs starting eight scored 456 runs in 2009 (with Milton Bradley). CHONE is projecting the Cubs starting eight to score 534 runs and Bill James is projecting the Cubs' regulars to score 587 times.
The projections show improvement by an offense that more than struggled with consistency in 2009. Somewhere in between CHONE and Bill James is what the Cubs starting eight should actually produce.
Coming Soon:
- Part Two: The Starting Staff
- Part Three: The Bench and The Bullpen
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I like the projections. With Soto, Soriano, and Fontenot having better seasons, we'd be in pretty good shape. I'm looking forward to seeing the bench projections because right now that appears to be a weak point of the team.
This is kind of off topic, but today on my Cubs blog I will be hosting a Q&A with Nick Gandy of the Grapefruit League to talk about the possible Cubs Spring Training move to Florida if anyone here has any questions you would like me to ask him, post it here or on my site. The chat starts at 3:30.
My site:
www.everythingcubs.blogspot.com.
"Both Bill James and CHONE projects better years for Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot".
Gee, what a reach there. Could those guys 2009 been much worse?
I will have to agree with you there. It could not have been much worse and lets hope that there will only be improvement. We do not need Soriano, Soto and Fontenot to be superstars just to put up credible numbers and be a tough out in the clutch.
I just noticed on FoxSports that the Pirates are closing in on a deal with free agent outfielder Ryan Church, according to multiple major league sources. We can now take his name off the Cubs wish list.
THERIOT
FUKUDOME
LEE
RAMIREZ
BYRD
SORIANO
FONTENOT/BAKER
SOTO
Z
here's to hoping the projections are somewhere in the neighborhood.
Just noted in a little blurb at mlbtrade rumors that Brandon Webb expects to hit the FA market after this season....He would like to get closer to his home in Kentucky.
He could be a future Cub...Hope he comes back from his injury plagued 09.
fyi.church bats LH..........need a RH to platoon w/ fukunuts...........besides church or hoffpauir.....really no difference.
here's hoping....that one of the ricketts family answers Q's about the price tix.....or 14.48M in increase revenue which apparantly none is going to the payroll, but to the bathrooms.....
the team is built to win now; after 75 plus years of the same johns......why NOW to update them.......
wait till 2012.......when payroll flex will be much greater...
101 yrs and couting....NO grace period, ricketts family........someone should wear a t-shirt to the convention w/ that saying.!
NO,No keep those troughs, they're one of a kind. Nowhere else has them, and you're in and out when you have to go. Plus their's a hygeine code, if you renovate them or remove them, they have to put in urinals. The lines would be horrible like the women!
Yes, I know Ryan Church bats LH and there is a big difference between him and Hoff. Church can play all the OF positions and Hoff can't. The Cubs need a LH off the bench with some pop that can play multiple positions and that is what Church could do. Hoff does not give Lou enough options.
The Cubs can resign RJ and the days that Fukudome goes against a tough lefty then Byrd can play RF.
The Cubs do not really need a backup for DLee given his durability and the day or two he does need to rest then Baker can play 1B.
Now in the event that Brad Snyder makes the team one thing the Cubs could do is start training Snyder to play 1B to rest DLee once in a while.
Personally I'm rooting for Snyder to be the LH hitter off the bench...we don't need Church.
Let us all hope that will be the case and Snyder does make the team because there are few other options out there. As you may remember from other postings I am in support of Snyder and hope he will solve the problem the Cubs have regarding a LH batter off the bench. Who, knows if he does well enough he might get quite a bit of playing time.
Brandon Webb and his sick sinker would be a very, VERY nice match at Wrigley.
This has to be one of the toughest topics for me to discuss. I hate projections. They really confuse me. Especially in a baseball type setting where as we know anything can happen.
-Soriano's issues could have been injury related...what if they were? What if they were fixed with the surgery and a long offseason to re-evaluate his abilities.
-Soto could come back to form, if he is working as hard as they say he is, if he is as prideful as they say, and if he really did take his massive failure in 2009 to heart.
-Aram could be healthy??? I personally think a surgery for him in the offseason may have been the best route, but keep in mind he could walk after this year. That could be incentive enough to have a special season.
-Zambrano could also be working really hard this offseason to finally live up to the "20 game winning ace" that he should be, not the 9 win self admitted lazy bones he was in '09.
-Thomas Diamond could emerge as a surprise.
-Starlin Castro could live up to the hype.
-Lou might find a magic in his swan song.
-Brad Snyder could round out the bench and be the 4th OF.
-Jim Hendry could provide a late game signing or a trade that really helps (Like Edmonds, Rejo)
-Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman and John Grabow could be formidable in the back end of the pen.
WHO KNOWS!
All I know is my personal Football season ended yesterday with one of the most heartbreaking losses I have ever seen and I am ready for some baseball. Bring on Spring, Bring on Fitch Park, and Bring on some Cubs Baseball!
How about that...a positve post about the 2010 Cubs, and I did not use the term "Bounceback"
Go Cubs Go!
And who knows the impact that Rudy Jaramillo is going to have!
Just a question to throw out there to the CCO with respect to the talk about 2010 free agents.
If Webb proves to be healthy this season, we're probably looking at a deal in the 7 year 130+ million range.
A young superstar at catcher is so rare that if Mauer shows his power from last year is for real, he may be able to command at least $25 million per season on a long term deal ... call it 8 years at $200 million. Jon Heyman at Sports Illustrated has a good article on Mauer's impending free agency and the dollars he could attract.
Would Cub fans be in favor of signing those types of deals? Would we be excited about them now and then blast ownership for making the deals 5 years down the road? It's easy to say we should sign Player X or Player Y. It's a much harder decision when you start to realisticly view the cost.
David...we are now living through the adverse effects of backloaded, untradeable contracts....and have no flexibility to make quality moves.
Just saw Mauer was going to seek $20 mil
per season as a "hometown discount"...and possibly $30 million per season if he hits FA.
While love Mauer right now...for a 2- 4
year deal...NOT at those prices for a guy that already has an injury history...and is getting older...not there yet.
Pitchers are in a different category altogether...they are all one pitch away from a major injury....
True baseball sense...in terms of length of contract...shouldn't be more than 3 years (Reinsdorf's philosophy).
But market conditions are not sensible.
NO to hamstring ourselves until we work out of current difficulties.
BIG NEWS...Bruce Levine just announced over am1000 that Greg Maddux has been hired as special assistant to Jim Hendry.
(Whatever that is)...We habe our future pitching coach!!!.
Why wait? This is a no brainer. Fire Larry now and let Greg have the job. I know Larry has done a good job but Big Z actually listened to Maddux when Greg was back with the Cubs on his second go around. That is probably the first and last time Big Z has really listended to anyone.
By the way if the rumors of animosity between Sandberg and Maddux are true could they coexist in the same dugout?
Maddux might not be ready to commit to full time travel...But that he is on the Cubs payroll is great news.
I have no clue about the Maddux/Sandberg
thing....but I thought Sandberg poo-pood that.
Here's the thing...early indications were that Mad Dog was going to work for Bobby Cox in Atlanta...so getting him here is great...whatever capacity.
The main reason that Mad Dog probably did not go with Bobby is that Cox is scheduled to retire after the 2010 season so make sense he would lean towards the Cubs.
Hopefully if Sandberg does become the manager then Greg will become the pitching coach. I am beginning to think JH wants him to evaluate the farm system pitching and where it needs to go. Given Greg's expertise he would be a real asset in evaluating the talent in the system.
Finally...good decisions with Jamaramillo and Maddux. Hopefully the start of the new regime coming together.
i like baker,i just feel we need 1 more OF ,i know i know i still like Damon!!!!