Baseball Prospectus released their projections for the Twenty-Ten season on Thursday ... and on paper, it does not look good for the Cubs.
PECOTA projects a 77-85 campaign for Lou Piniella's crew ... third place in the National League Central Division.
Again, these are projections based playing time-weighted projections for each player, which builds up to a team projection.
The same system projected the Cubs to win the central in 2009 with 92 wins.
Here is how PECOTA sees the 2010 MLB Season playing out:
National League
East
- Philadelphia Phillies - 88-74
- Atlanta Braves - 85-77
- Washington Nationals - 82-80
- New York Mets - 77-85
- Florida Marlins - 76-86
Central
- St. Louis Cardinals - 89-73
- Cincinnati Reds - 82-80
- Chicago Cubs - 77-85
- Houston Astros - 75-87
- Milwaukee Brewers - 75-87
- Pittsburgh Pirates - 70-92
West
- Los Angeles Dodgers - 87-75
- Arizona Diamondbacks - 85-77
- San Francisco Giants - 81-81
- Colorado Rockies - 80-82
- San Diego Padres - 74-88
American League
East
- Tampa Bay Rays - 96-66
- Boston Red Sox - 95-67
- New York Yankees - 93-69
- Baltimore Orioles - 79-83
- Toronto Blue Jays - 71-91
Central
- Minnesota Twins - 82-80
- Chicago White Sox - 79-83
- Detroit Tigers - 79-83
- Cleveland Indians - 77-85
- Kansas City Royals - 66-96
West
- Oakland A's - 87-75
- Seattle Mariners - 86-76
- Texas Rangers - 85-77
- Los Angeles Angels - 76-86
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Has anyone ever compared these projections to actual, to see what percentage of playoffs teams they even get right. I bet this system gets about as much right as one that pulls them out of a hat.
Stats are great for seeing why something happened, what might happen, but this is still a game played on the field, with the outcomes TBD. That's why they play the games.
Yeah. A projection is not a crystal ball that sees the future. It's a combination of tools that help us assess what's strong or wrong at present.
If a team understands what significance of the projection brings them, a team can react quickly and overwrite the problems, and improve--either through trade or a call-up of a strong arm from its farm.
This is more like a business proposal for a new investment in Cambodia, for example. We don't know how far this plan can carry us, and where exactly the profit lies, but we can use what we see now and give it an estimate. Hopefully, if we do our best, we'll be seizing the chance at the right time.
Yah really Pirates 7 games less wins than Cubs. Com on they are a Triple A team. I highy doubt they get that high. The a's winning diviaion, I cant see that happwning. Really dont agree with projections besides Al Central.
They apparently don't look at managers either.
No way that Dusty takes that Reds team to second place.
That being said, barring major changes, this team will struggle to win 85.
However, I suspect the Cubs will be players in the trading deadline. So we can throw all of this out the window.
These projections obviously can't take into consideration future roster changes.
A solid rotation of Weaver, Piniero, Santana, and others is good for last place in the AL West, and not behind the vastly improved Seattle Mariners or Texas Rangers - but the Oakland A's. Haha, yes Sheets might net them third tops in the division - but these projections are just ridiculous.
Not a single division is correct in how they will finish next year, IMO.
The quiet additions of Gonzalez, Edmonds, and Doug Davis will prove to be nice pickups for the Brewers this year. Davis is an innings eater, not sure of the exact numbers - maybe Neil can help me out there - but I happen to recall Davis being one of those crafty lefties that the Cubs seem to have a lot of trouble against. 2nd place will be a battle between the Cubs and Brewers. Cincy in 4th, Stros in 5th and the Pirates bringing up the rear.
Woody, Davis dominates the Cubs ... you are right.
9-6 in 16 career starts with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.
Davis has beaten the Padres ten times, only team he has more wins against than the Cubs.
As for ERA and WHIP, second behind the Padres in ERA (2.91) and Davis' 1.16 WHIP is his best aganist any other team with at least 10 starts.
With the Brewers signing Davis and Wolf it will help them head-to-head with the Cubs. Davis is Cy Young when he faces the Cubs and Randy Wolf is not far behind.
Ty Neil and I completely forgot about Wolf addition. They are a team that has quietly gotten better than last year, even with the losses of Cameron and Hardy.
Also I said Gonzalez earlier and meant Gomez. I believe their season will actually depend greatly on this addition. I have read that he is a clubhouse cancer. Maybe not quite to the extent of our own last year that needn't be mentioned. But if indeed he killed this club last year, adding a version of our own into the Brewers clubhouse could make a huge difference in there succeeding and failing next year. We have seen in the past that the Brewers have had their own clubhouse problems, adding a log on that fire in Gomez could be disastrous.
I agree that the projections are a little ridiculous and like Tony says it depends on what actually happens on the field.
Now it could actually be a good thing if many people do not project the Cubs to do that well. That could actually help to take off some of the pressure of having to win because you were expected too so when the CUBS WIN THE DIVISION and the NL CHAMPIONSHIP and then the WS!!! everyone will be surprised instead of expecting it.
Much like 2003.
That team was destined to suck too, I recall.
Diehard...you bring a smile to my face
on an extremely cold winter's night.
We should all print and save this projection.
The prospectus has the Mets finishing with 77 wins...same as us?
I'll give them credit for putting this out at an early stage...other than that
it's just a fun exercise...and an acknowledgement that our beloved Cubs have some flaws.
Neil...did you see the link I put up re the Blue Jays in the last thread?
It'd what prompted my question for Ricketts at the convention.
I don't have much faith in Baseball Prospectus' projections this year. NO 90 games winning teams in the NL; Reds #2 in the Central with Dusty leading them; everyone in the AL central right at .500; Yanks not #1 in AL East. FORGETABOUTIT.
Let's talk Doug Davis. I don't like him, but he does beat the Cubs. A sub-.500 pitcher (90-98) with a career WHIP above 1.50--not much to brag about here. A fifth starter on most teams. So how much help does he give the Brewers if he goes 11-11?
Could the Cubs not take a Davis? I would take Doug Davis on this roster. At least you know what you get for 200 innings of consistency. He's not a great pitcher, but he is a solid #4 or 5 starter. Even the World Series winning Yankees had to rotate many guys in those spots last year.
Milwaukee is much improved with their pitching additions this year. Gallardo could break out this year. He is going to get at least 15 wins and 200+ strikeouts. Wolf is good for about 12-13 wins. Suppan and Davis.
The Cubs could match up in a 3 game series against Davis, Gallardo and Wolf.
I would take a competitive club vs. our high risk/high reward filled roster any day.
Rip... The Brewers are an interesting team.
ROTATION
Gallardo
Wolf
Davis
Suppan
Parra?
Bush?
No aces...but solid .500 type pitchers...
with the Brewers offense...they might
make some noise.
They get Weeks back this season...and just added Edmunds to go with Gomez.
Their bullpen is really suspect and one wonders if Hoffman will hold up as closer.
Another question is how heavy will Prince Fielder be?
Brewers games with the Cubs should be a lot of fun this year.
Sometimes I wonder if some people are just relentlessly optimistic, or suffering from Stockholm syndrome
Team of 2009 - Rich Harden + Marlon Byrd - Jake Fox + Carlos Silva + Post-reconstructive arm surgery Xavier Nady --- Suddenly, "No Way PECOTA"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA
PECOTA's average vs actual game win predictions have differed by an average of 5 games over the course of the past 6-7 years..
that being said, I also expect 90 wins!! What to do :-)
Baron, They are weighted projections...a guideline.
According to Neil's article...last year's Cubs were minus 9 from the PECOTA projections.
I could see this years team going plus ten or minus ten...depending on how the pitching and injuries go.
Theres a few other negatives you forgot
to subtract...Miles/Bradley/Gregg etc.
How does PECOTA mesasure Bradley's personality and his effects on the team
psyche...or Jaramillo's addition.
How much better or worse would we be with another pitching coach?
I don't really see how that can be measured by statistics....It's also a
human game.
I'm not one of those predicting the WS
this year...but I'd sure love to be wrong.
According to these projections the Nationals are better than the Cubs. That tells me not to take PECOTA seriously at all.
yes tony, but i believe that you are just disappointed that the cubs are terrible and always will be terrible and i also believe that any baseball fan knows to never pick the cubs to win.