Aaron,

First I'd like to say I would have preferred Ankiel/Lopez/Back-up Gomes

over Byrd. ((If we are talking retreads).

That being said, Byrd with less talent is an upgrade over Milton and his attitude. I think Rudy will help keep him

productive...at least in the first year.

To me, it's a no brainer to resign Brad

Snyder...especially if the Cubs are

convinced Colvin and Adduci need another year in the minors.

I'm convinced Snyder (a lefty) would give us at least 20 HR and play solid defense...Since our starters are suspect defensively (except for Fuko in right)

It just makes sense.

Silva concerns me...because the Cubs really didn't save any money overall

and we don't know if he can contribute

or not...He's still a dfa candidate and his salary is 6 million more than Bradley's.

Where we DO get better is by subtraction.

Eliminating Miles/Gregg/Bradley/Cotts/

Heilman is huge.

Our trading chips are still an over load

of lefty arms...usually they are at a premium...I don't see us starting the

season with both Marshall AND Gorzelanny...basically they do the same thing.

The thing that puzzles me...is Levine keeps on saying the Cubs want another

righty at the back of the rotation...

and to strengthen the bench...but nothing about 2nd base.

I can't imagine them thinking Fontenot/

Baker again...unless they really feel Castro is almost ready and they are banking on it...and planning to move

Theriot to 2nd early on.

Aaron, your points are well taken...and while overall your assessment of Hendry

is correct...I still disagree with several things.

I would never put Dunn and Soriano in the same outfield together for example.

Mauer's going nowhere...Pujols will be getting old and cost big bucks with another long term/no trade contract.

Nope to that...yup to letting DLee go

and acing out Boston on AGON to replace Lee....(whatever the cost in prospects are.) Yup to going after Josh Johnson...

another young, proven star.

I think Ricketts would allow prospects to go for players like that...you have to be judicious here...unlike Hendry has been in the past.

Our division will still stink...with the exception of the Cards...so we'll be competitive...even if we're not that good....Still...I'm looking forward to it.

I know this is a little off topic and better suited for the previous post...but the problem I have with the Byrd signing is this...

Byrd averages about 9 hr, 48 RBI, and a .279 avg and .340 OBP. He's significantly overweight for his position of CF, and all UZR ratings have him below average in CF, which is the position he was signed for.

Felipe Lopez averages about 9 hr, 46 RBI and a .269 avg, .338 OBP. You might say that they are very similar, but if you look at Bradley and Byrd's stats, they are eerily similar, except for the OBP. They both played sporadically throughout their careers, and both had widely varying stats season to season, while Lopez has remained relatively consistent. Lately, his average and OBP has been stronger around the .300 range with around a .350+ OBP...but that's beside the point on the major benefit of having Lopez over Byrd. Lopez has played virtually every position in the field, and is athletic, and has stolen 44 bases as recently as 2006. He's also a switch hitter to boot, and he's 2 years younger than Byrd. Wouldn't you rather have that type of player that could play CF in a pinch if your own guy, like Colvin, Fuld, Adduci, etc. doesn't pan out, or your other FA acquisition like Ankiel doesn't work out?!?

The Byrd signing is the most puzzling of all, because we still have Fukudome signed for the next 2 years at a ridiculous $12 million/yr, and Soriano for the next 5 years at an even more ridiculous $18 million/yr. So, we have our entire OF locked up for another 2 years at least as it currently is, with Soriano averaging about 20-30 hr, 50-70 RBI

Byrd, sitting at around 9 hr, 48 RBI.

Fukudome sitting at about 10-11 hr, 55 RBI

Not only is that the worst offensive outfield in perhaps the entire league, it also is potentially the worst defensive outfield in the entire league, with only Fukudome in RF playing above average defense. It makes you wonder what in the hell Hendry and other Cubs brass were concerned about with going after someone like Dunn last year instead of the ill-fated Bradley signing. It's absolutely laughable, and Jim Hendry has made the Cubs into the laughingstock yet again in the league (as if we haven't had enough of that in the 50's through the 90's.)

Here's why this move pisses me off even more.

A decent lineup would've been:

Theriot-SS

Lopez-2B

Lee-1B

ARAM-3B

Ankiel-CF

Soriano-LF

Fukudome-RF

Soto-C

It would've given Piniella absolutely nothing to bitch about with a balanced lineup.

Instead, our likely lineup will be:

Theriot-SS

Fukudome-RF

Lee-1B

ARAM-3B

Byrd-CF

Soriano-LF

Fontenot-2B

Soto-C

The only way Hendry can salvage this offseason is by signing Lopez. I don't foresee the Ricketts approving any trades involving prospects as they've stated a commitment moving toward youth, so that would appear to rule out any trades that'd improve the team, wouldn't it?

I wholeheartedly expect Hendry will sign Calero and Loretta, and call it an offseason, all the while touting Calero's veteran presence in the pen, and Loretta's experience on the bench, and "versatility" (at least according to him)

I say it again...this offseason might even be worse than last offseason. So far, we've "added" Grabow $3.75 million, Silva $6 million (I believe, after Mariners contribution), Byrd $3 million, and Parisi $50,000 so far with Rule 5 fee. If he makes the team, then it'll be $400k, or whatever the new minimum will be.

We've lost:

Bradley .257 avg, .378 OBP, 12 hr, 40 RBI, in 393 AB's

Fox .259 avg, .311 OBP, 11 hr, 44 RBI, in 216 AB's

Miles .185 avg, .224 OBP, 0 hr, 5 RBI, in 157 AB's

Heilman 4-4, 70 games, 72 1/3 IP, 4.11 ERA, 1.410 WHIP, 1 save, 6 blown saves

Gregg 5-6, 72 games, 68 2/3 IP, 4.72 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 23 saves, 7 blown saves

Reed Johnson (likely won't be retained) .255 avg, .330 OBP, 4 hr, 22 RBI in 165 AB's

So, let's see what we've replaced them with...

Gregg and Heilman=It looks like internal candidates at this point, which appears to be a win for us with addition by subtraction

Miles=likely Blanco, and based on his showing last year in 123 AB's with 1 hr, 12 RBI, I'd say we win this move

Fox, Bradley, and Johnson=combined 27 hr, 106 RBI

We've essentially replaced all 3 with Byrd, who had a career high of 20 hr, 89 RBI. Eerily similar to Bradley's career year of 22 hr, 77 RBI before we signed him, right? That's a loss of 7 hr, and about 20 RBI. I guess with a resurgent season, Soto could equal the difference, but the likelihood of that happening is slim to none. That means the Cubs need to find that production from somewhere. You also have to factor in Fox only playing what amounted to half a season, and might've had 20+hr, 80+RBI alone.

I just don't see how we're a better team. Unless we re-sign Brad Snyder, and bring him to Spring Training with a LEGITIMATE opportunity to supplant Fukudome as the starting RF, we're NOT going to be a good team. Snyder plays plus defense as well, and it's reasonable to assume that he might hit 20 hr on an everyday basis. Will the Cubs do the right thing and sign him? Hell no!!! Are you kidding? Hendry couldn't sign the right guy if he showed up on his doorstep with a ribbon attached to his head and the stats to prove himself worthy of consideration. How many players have stated their desire to play for the Cubs? We all know Ibanez,Carlos Lee, Abreu, AND Dunn all wanted to play for us, and there's a lot more than that. Pathetic isn't it? Yet, he still feels the need to sign guys like Soriano, Bradley, Byrd, etc.

I hate Jim Hendry for all he's done to this team. We could've been great, and now it'll be at least 5 years before we make the playoffs even....unless injuries overwhelm the NL Central, and nobody improves their teams. The Cubs have too much salary locked up long-term that there's almost no way they can improve, and the guys that do have value all have no-trade clauses, and ones that would have marginal value have back-loaded contracts that render them untradeable.

So, let's break this down further with just our OF:

2010

Soriano-$19 million (forgot it was back-loaded)

Byrd-$3 million

Fukudome-$14 million (forgot it was back-loaded too)

=$36 million

2011

Soriano-$19 million

Byrd-$5.5 million

Fukudome-$14.5 million

=$39 million

2012

Soriano-$19 million

Byrd-$6.5 million

?

=$25.5 million

Other notable commitments the next 3 years:

Zambrano: $18.875 mm, $18.875 mm, $19 mm

ARAM: $16.75 mm, $14.60 mm, $12 mm (I believe that's the option anyway)

Dempster: $13.5 mm, $14.5 mm, $14 mm

Silva: $12.75 mm, $12.75 mm, $12.75 mm (I believe this one is an opt out/buy out though, plus the first 2 years, we're given $9 million to offset, so it really averages $8.25 mm)

That's an awful lot of money committed to average to above average (but aside from ARAM, not outstanding) players, all of which (aside from Z) are in their 30's.

Players like Castro, Vitters,, Hak Ju Lee, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Burke, Brett Jackson, Ridling, Rhee, Jay Jackson, Coleman, Cashner, Carpenter, Watkins, W. Castillo, Jose Valdez, Nelson Perez, Guyer, Spencer, Kirk, Archer, Antigua, and Searle, are all probably 2-3 years or more away from contributing as starters (if that), and even at the 2-3 year mark, it usually takes players about 2-3 years to acclimate to the pace of MLB, so overall, you're looking at a 5 year wait just for internal options. Does that make sense?

That's why I think this team will be horrible for the next 5 years, and I hope I'm wrong about this.

THink help is on the way with FA in 2011? Think again. Here's the only names I'd consider (with ages at FA):

C-Mauer (28)

1B-Pujols (31..but he has a club option they'll likely exercise)

SS-Reyes (28..but has club option they'll likely exercise)

LF-Crawford (29), Kubel (29..but has affordable club option they'll likely exercise)

RF-Hawpe and Werth (both 32...Hawpe has $10 mm club option they'll likely decline)

P-Beckett (31), Cain (26..but has vesting option),Cliff Lee (32), Webb (32)

These are the only guys I'd even remotely consider, and really, due to age and durability issues, most of these guys even give me pause.

Mauer, Pujols, Cain, Reyes, and Crawford are the only ones I'd offer 4 years or more...which is in stark contrast to what Hendry has done in the past.

Mauer will likely command a $100 mm + contract for 7 years or more, making him a highly paid catcher at age 35, which is a dangerous thing

Pujols will likely command a $250 mm + deal over 7-10 years

That's a lot of cash to dole out, and I just showed how limited our payroll flexibility is over the next 3 seasons.

Here's a team I'd love to see:

Mauer-C

Pujols-1B

Castro-2B

Lee-SS

Vitters-3B

Crawford-LF

B Jackson-CF

Burke-RF

bench: W. Castillo, LeMahieu, Flaherty, Spencer, Valdez

That'd be my 2012 position players. I'd easily eat the remaining $57 million due Soriano just to gain a roster spot.

My lineup would probably be:

Lee-SS ($400+k)

Crawford-LF ($13-14 mm)

Mauer-C ($16-20 mm)

Pujols-1B ($25-30 mm)

Burke-RF ($400+k)

Vitters-3B ($400+k)

Jackson-CF ($400+k)

Castro-2B ($400+K)

=$67 mm on the high end for that lineup. Isn't that something you'd do? The problem is, I don't think Hendry has that type of vision, nor do any of his associates. Even with a fairly expensive lineup like that (though not anywhere close to what the Yankees owe their lineup), you can still sign starting pitchers, a pen, and a bench to contracts worth a combined $83 million, and equal what we're paying now.

What that means is you could have at least 4 starting pitchers earning $10 mm, a closer getting $10 mm, and have about $10 mm to plug other holes, and save the rest for arbitration raises, etc. it subsequent seasons.

Aaron this upcoming offseason's free agency pool could potentially be one of the best in recent history. This is why I am a big advocate of trading them all at the deadline. Lee, Lilly, Soto (while he has value), ARam, Zambrano, Fontenot, Theriot, and if we can find any takers Fukudome and Byrd - which will eating a chunk of their salaries. This will cut the payroll by over half!!

With 70 - 85 million gone from the books, we could make a serious run at Crawford, Mauer, and Lee/Webb. At the deadline or next offseason we then do what it takes to get Josh Johnson - I am thinking a package built around Soto. Those four plus Marmol is the core to build around. Bringing up the kids to get experience THIS year and be ready for action when Sandberg takes over.

We have a corner infielder hole in the system. Whether Vitters pans out at first or third, who will be the future at the other corner? This player will have to be acquired in a trade, or the Cubs will have to make a serious run at Albert Pujols. I know the Red Sox really need a corner infielder, and if they use a fill in until the trade deadline, A possible three team deal involving Ramirez to the Red Sox and Gonzalez to the Cubs could be an option.

This all is needed for the future success of this franchise. The big problem is none of it will as long as Mr. Hendry is in charge of these moves.

And I totally agree that Ankiel, Lopez, Gomes, and Sheets made the most sense for the 2010 Chicago Cubs. Now the signing of Byrd has forced the hand for the rest of the acquisitions needed to be made. Adding a right handed "no speed or power" center fielder, has created the 2b Acquisition to be a left handed hitter, who could hit 1 or 2 in the lineup. This limits the options available, and basically leaves the Cubs taking on more age in Castillo. Thats it!!! Uggla has no spot in the lineup now. Where would Lou put him in the lineup, second? Not with his strikeout ratio. He would of fit in nicely in the five hole, but his defense would be a hinderance.

If the Marlins can bring up their prospects and let them take their lumps while getting experience - and those players turn into the Hanley Ramirez's of the league - then the Cubs should do the same with some of their prospects. This season is a Ramirez/Lee/ or Lilly injury setback from being a complete disaster once again.

Wishing no harm on other players, but the only chance the Cubs will have to win the division this year is either every Cubs off year player from last year comes back to have career years, or Carpenter and Pujols going down for the year.

The 28 yr old Brad Synder doesn't even have so much as 1 major league at bat. Currently he's an unsigned minor league free agent. It appears to me that:

1. The Cubs ain't going to resign him.

2. Even if they did, He wouldn't play for the Cubs at the ML level in 2010.

3. He's 28 and already begun to regress physically, just like all players do.

4. Do you realistically expect the Cubs to bench a $48 million dollar bust like Funko for a $400,000 career minor leaguer? Synder could hit .500 in ST and not make the team because contract dollars count--in reverse! JHendry is not about to be shown up for what he really is: an incompetent GM.

Conclusion: forgetaboutit!

Rip...Fuko has to platoon with someone. You're right about Snyder in mlb ab's...but as a one or 2 year cheap alternative...I'm confident he would produce.

JH isn't going to sign any all-stars

and we need more power. Snyder is an excellent fielder and was raking in the minor leagues last year until they selected Colvin over him is the fall.

Right now, he's a much better player than Colvin.

Suzy,

Your points are well taken--by me. My point was that with our current GM, and the fact that he isn't going to let himself be shown up by a major league minimum guy, youcanforgetaboutit.

Bobby Scales already did that by outplaying Miles last year...but you're probably right. Rip

Ran inot Kerry Wood again today at the Lincoln Park Whole Foods. Has to be one of the nicest guys. We were both waiting for some food at talked about baseball. He said was really hoping to be traded to the Cubs. Also said that he finally feels comfortable throwing the curve again.

Neil I mentioned this site to him. He asked me were I get some of the info I was telling him and said MLBtraderumors and more importantly Chicagocubsonline.com. Said he would check them out.

Jim...very cool. Thank you.

I have heard/read rumblings about the Cubs and Indians about Kerry ... but that appears all they were.

Jim...if you see Kerry again, please tell him no matter what happens, theres always a place in Cub fans heart for him.

And you can quote it from here...so you don't have to get mushy.

that's awesome...I've met him once too, and I can't say enough good things about how great he is, and one of my friends played with him on the 2003 team, and said both he and Farnsworth were hilarious.

A little known fact most people seem to forget...Heilman, Gregg, and Chad Fox, almost equaled Kerry's salary. Wouldn't you much rather have Kerry than any of them?!? I know I would, for the same reason I would've rather had Grace than Fred McGriff, or Maddux instead of Marquis, etc. When given the choice to do the right thing, the Cubs almost always choose the wrong path, trying to get cute, and make people think they're smarter than they really are when things pan out once in a great while (DeRosa and Lilly). Also lost in last offseason's chaos was the fact Hendry and the rest of the brass were bitching about payroll flexibility, and the need to offload payroll. The problem is, the combination of Gregg, Heilman, Gathright, Miles, Bako (the $200 k owed after cutting him), ended up costing us about $10 million, plus useful prospects like Pie, Cedeno, (Olson via Pie), and Ceda, and that's even before signing Bradley. So...riddle me this...

Kerry stated he would've given us a discount. Isn't it reasonable to assume that discount would be in the $8 mm/yr range? and maybe less years with more incentives? We all know Dunn accepted less years than Bradley.

So, the Cubs would've added just $4 million in payroll if they kept the status quo, and signed an Abreu (even more flexibility) or Dunn, because they'd still have DeRosa's $6 mm. Am I making sense?

Technically, they added about $20 mm in salary, yet only subtracted DeRosa's $6 mm.

I just can't say enough how much of an idiot Hendry is, and I would be shocked if Kerry still sees him in the same light as before, because it's quite clear that they pulled a Grace and/or Maddux type of move on him, and disguised it as a payroll issue instead of what it really was---they thought they'd be better off without him, and guess what...without Wood and DeRosa's leadership, we tanked...and we still haven't added any type of leadership to the team. Byrd isn't even close to being a leader.

I hope the Cubs bring Kerry back, but it won't happen under Hendry, and thankfully, if it happens, we'll all be better off, because Hendry will be gone

Aaron:

I also meet Kerry Wood, he is a great guy. Marlon Byrd will be platooning with Fukudome by July and we will still be in need of a CF. What do you think. Oh, did you see Fergie last night on "Rockin New Years Eve"?

I envision Byrdno longer being a part of the lineup by June, either due to injury or ineffectiveness...it's inevitable. Keep in mind that the last effective hitter Hendry signed was Edmonds, and before that---DeRosa. Both weren't signed to big contracts,which says a lot about how bad Hendry really is at identifying talent.

A lineup below might be what you'll see in July:

Fuld-CF

Theriot-SS

Lee-1B

ARAM-3B

Fukudome-RF

Soriano-LF

Soto-C

Baker-2B

Platooning by July? I'd put it this way: his performance will be such that he OUGHT to be platooning with Funko by July, but since Lou/JHendry is committed to playing the big contracts, more deserving, lower paid guys will ride the pine while Byrd/Funko/Sorry-oh-no continue to play. That's how I see it panning out.

Like Aaron says: the Cubs have the highest paid, weakest offensive and most porous defensive starting outfield in all of baseball (move over Pirates!). And we are committed to this for the next 2, 3 and 5 years!

I look for Soriano to hit the DL (knees)

if he isn't going well again...you can almost bank on it.

Good luck and health to the entire CCO staff and participants and readers in 2010. Thanks once again for the news commentary and entertaining and informed discussion. Its a new year and new owners so here's hoping for a good start for the organization and a serious baseball operation on the Northside in the not too distant future.

Happy New Year Everyone!!!

GO CUBS GO!!!!

Like Cubs1967 said, Ricketts family and JH don't hold back. This is enough. Go out and get what the team needs to win!!! This includes the July trade deadline.

Topping my wish list is a leadoff hitter/2B, frontline starter, middle inning relief and a switch hitting 4th OF with some pop (would take a LH with some pop and solid defense).

Happy New Year to all! Let's get these next 3 months over in a hurry so we can all be talking baseball -- not contracts and players. GO CUBS!

Brrrrr...6 degrees and an icy white artic landscape...as far as one can get from a July day in the bleachers.

Happy New Year to all.

Did some checking on the past...

100 years ago, the Cubs did indeed play in the World Series under manager Frank

Chance.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the 1910

World Series against us 4 games to 1.

The Cubs did manage to go 104-50.

The rotatation was anchored by

Mordecai "3 Finger" Brown...

At age 33 he started 31 games...had 14 complete games and went

25-14 with a 1.86 era.

Do the math...it means he also relieved.

(I wonder what Boras would have done

with him as a client?)

King Cole was the other ace...going

20-5.

The 1910 team had pretty cool short billed caps.

I nominate Orval Overall as the random Cub of the year...but I'll give you something to do...and let you look him up.

I wonder if someone will nominate Rebel Riding 100 years from now? :)

He's the only untouchable Cub just now...

his name is too cool....

"Rebel Riding to the Rescue?"

Neil, you think you can mix in

players from the 1910 team for random Cub

of the day...it would be fun.

Anyway, as Byrd arrives and pigs fly, it should be another year of fun filled/

hair wrenching debate hear on the CCO.

As Ernie says: "The Cubs Can in 2010."

And those are my opening thoughts for the

New Year. Happy New Year to all.

Suzy...I will mix that in. I stopped doing the history posts due to the fact the articles were not well received.

I am big into baseball history. And something you may not know, I contributed info to a book on the history of the Cubs and received a credit in the book. The CCO actually received a source credit as well.

The Random Cub of the Day is actually a box of baseball cards that I collected in my younger days. The scans are my cards and I literally open the box and pick one.

During the 2007 World Series I posted recaps of each game of the 1908 World Series. Here is one of the posts:

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2007/10/cubs_1908_5.php

I like your idea ... thanks.

Neil, that's pretty cool getting the book credit. What's the name of the book?

Thanks for the link...there's old Orval

Overall (How could his parents do that to him?)!!!

Actually, my whole family are history buffs. My blind brother in the nursing home dealt in antiques and historical

books/photo's/paper etc.

I've spent quite a bit of time reading to him...one of the books he enjoyed the most was..."A Chronological History of the Cubs"...eash visit...I'd read him 2 or 3 years worth of stories and stats...

starting back in the mid/late 1800's.

Anyway, it's great fun to look back at the teams and characters.

The name of the book is "Chicago Cubs Yesterday and Today".

I'll pick it up...thanks

Neil:

I never knew that about the book credit.

That is a cool thing to be a part of.

let's add 1 more number to the list:101

everyone knows what that is.........No grace period ricketts family; don't stop hendry from getting a 2b, RP, and maybe backup OF..........it's WS or bust.

cubs fans deserve it!

Happy New Year CCO! Thank you to everyone that makes this such a wonderful site...especially Neil! Thanks for all your hard work to keep us up to date with the latest news and opinions! Here's to a great 2010!

A few thoughts.....

* I Think Fergie is HOT!

* Jim Hendry has not learned his lesson.

* I Miss baseball.

Happy New Years CCO.

Walked outside and it still feels like winter. So going back into hibernation for a bit longer.

Can't wait til spring.

Happy new year to all at the CCO!

Neil, Abby, Shaun and Brian! Thanks for

making the fan experience a lot better!!! A

Small fighting Crew with a lot of heart and

serious commitment is what the CCO is...and

getting big. Looking fwd to 2010!!!

I also want to say my thanks. I have been a visitor of CCO for a few years and just recently joined this amazing group of hardworking people. This is an amazing site created by incredible fans with a lot of heart. Thank You

Sorry I missed your comment on New Year's Day.

Welcome to the CCO!

Also, very cool avatar/user pic

Thank You,very much appreciated. This is a great site and always the first I visit when I get to my computer

Freezing here at Blowing Rock in NC with

family and friends but with the beer on hand!!!

Have a great year!