For every idea, some will disagree, some will agree, some will be indifferent. Sometimes we all need to just agree to disagree on what is best for the Cubs.

We gather here to discuss OUR ideas and passion for the Cubs. Let understand that no one can know what would of happened under different cirmcumstances, therefore, you can't say if so and so would of signed he would of produced the same stats as he did for another team.

Let's enjoy the banter and Stay Classy!!

IF Hendry trades Guzman for Gregerson, can you tell me what we are "gaining" by his services? If it's just the upside of a healthy player, NO thank you. Give the Gooz more opportunities! If they get Gregerson for someone else, different story.

Chuck D, Nathan's contract goes though 2011 with an option for 2012...

Kevin Gregg still on the loose? You know that even Dave Duncan can't fix that. Maybe he'll play in Mexico this year.

According to Mark Gonzales of the Trib...

FA reliever Joe Nelson would like to pitch for the Cubs in a back of the rotation role.

He's 35 and posted a 2.86 era...averaging just over a KO per inning last year with the Marlins and Rays. He was DFA'd late last season when

"flyballs and loss of control became an issue"...according to Gonzales.

Has anybody seen this guy pitch and should we have any interest in him?

He's seeking a back of the pen spot.

I've seen Nelson pitch for the Marlins a few times. He's got good stuff, but has control issue from time to time. Not sure if he's any better than what we already have.

Don't know anything about him, but I would take him in a heartbeat over the Chan Ho Park rumors.

All at once...Just say no to Chan HO!

OH NO HO? :)

So Rich Hill is a cardinal. I predict he will be a 17 game winner next season. Dave Duncan will fix what Rothchild did to him.

17 wins for Rich Hill? That's a lot--more than Z, for example--but I do agree that Dave Duncan can fix what's wrong. He's the best of the best. And LaRussa can take junk and win with it. I am not happy that Hill signed with the Cards. He'll beat the Cubs 3 times next year.

We need a closer like Joe Nathan. When does he become a free agent? The Twins can't aford Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Nathan.

Trading Guzman would be the stupidest mistake since choosing Gregg over Marmol.

Caridad is fine in the pen & if the organization is bragging on the minor league system then we shouldn't have a bullpen problem or if not we will have more backup problems like when Ramy went down & nobody ready to cover the injury with any solid numbers. why trade or add anyone.

I hate to say it, but if we don't get another starter it's over. Let Maddux work with Big Z & Marmol & tell Rothschild to stay out of his way.

I dont think they are bragging about their farm system. I think they said that ther will be new Emphasis on the minor league system. I could be wrong.

They know its bad and that it needs improvement. Thats why they are going to make a better emphasis on it.

As far as Gregerson for Guzman, I would think the Cubs would try to trade someone other that Guzman, but if they did it wouldn't be my favorite trade but your trading Guzman's injury prone for Gregerson's inconsistancy.

The thing about Gregerson, if you look deeper then the numbers. Home and away split difference like he has is more then him pitching in San Deigo. A big park helps out, but not that much.

I dont have time to look them up but its like a difference of 3.0 in ERA and .150 points in batting average. That has to be mental. Maybe a new team might cure that. Would count on it. But maybe.

Why would dealing Guzman for Gregerson be a stupid mistake?

I really like Guzman and i hope they find another way i think he's got great stuff of course when he can stay healthy...

I'm with you...jay_mann23

I'm much rather deal a mid level prospect for Gregorson (maybe a Flaherty or Colvin type), but if I had to I'd deal Guzman for Gregorson because of the injury risk with Guzman. Guzman has better stuff and more upside, but if he gets hurt this season, the bullpen looks really weak.

Aaron,

While I apologize for the "moronic" comment, I do disagree with many of your comments. While I admit, I usually do not read your posts becuase they are way too long and repetitive. (If I had a dime for every time you called Hendry an "idiot" I would be retiring tomorrow) :-) How many times can we read that ? And please, I agree that Hendry has made mistakes, but all GM's make mistakes. Just look at any of them.

But yesterday's comments I did read, and to me so many of your thoughts are out of left field, I could write forever.

I will try to net it out:

1.) The cubs signed Nady for $3.3M. They are spending $140M in total. In the grand scheme of things, $3.3M for 1 year is a VERY small risk. We have guys making $13 to $19M a year, THOSE are huge risks, not Nady's contract.

2.) Nady - Injury risk - yes, there's a risk, BUT first off, he's not a pitcher, so elbow surgery to an OF is not as damaging. Secondly, if he wasn't an injury risk, we would NOT have been able to sign him for $3.3M, he would have cost WAY more. Thirdly, just in case you didn't know, but any player is a risk !! Anyone can get hurt.

3.) Gomes - Please. I could write forever. First off, his strikeouts per AB's are a lot higher than Nady. So to say they both "strikeout alot" is misleading, because Gomes is much worse. It's not even close. Just look at the numbers.

4.) You said you can take Gomes year of 20 HR / 51 RBI and double it to project a full year, since he only had approx 350 AB's. Are you kidding me ? As we have learned with guys like Fontenot, some guys are only part-time players and when pressed into full-time duty they struggle. And I ask this, if Gomes is so good with "40 HR potential" why haven't the Reds given him the opportunity yet to play every day ? He has been up for over 6 years now. And why aren't there teams lining up to sign this guy ? Are you telling no one can use a "40 HR guy" for $1 or $2M ? hmmmm. I guess there are 30 GM's out there that don't really agree with your premise, do they ?

5.) Was I a Bradley supporter ? Please. I guess you don't read other posts either. I hated the guy from day 1.

6.) You said Byrd is is "not projected to last through the year in CF". Huh ?

Who said that ?

7.) Blalock - Yes, I agree with you he's a good player that I would love to have. But what makes you think he will come cheap ? He certainly will command more than Nady.

8.) Ankiel - Athleticism is nice, but does not equal a good player. Joey Gathright was athletic too, how'd he work for us ? Ankiel has not accomplished a thing is his career, except throw pitches to the backstop. LOL. He had 1 good half, and was suspected of juicing. Why is he a safer bet ?

I'll hang up now and wait for my response.

:-)

LOL...Okay, I guess I'll respond, and I accept your apology. As always, let's try to keep it classy with other posters

Here's my response:

1.) "The cubs signed Nady for $3.3M. They are spending $140M in total....THOSE are huge risks, not Nady's contract."

*indeed, $3.3 million seems quite low compared to others like Soriano, but when we only had approximately (I'm including Byrd) $10 million to spend altogether, it becomes even more necessary to be cautious about who you sign, which is why I wasn't in favor of signing injured players like Nady and Tracy...although, WHEN healthy they are good options...unfortunately, neither have been particularly healthy (especially Tracy) over the past few years.

2.) "Nady - Injury risk - yes, there's a risk, BUT first off, he's not a pitcher, so elbow surgery to an OF is not as damaging..."

*I went over this above, but I'll add to my response...He's not a pitcher, BUT, he will have to throw 200+ feet occasionally, and his limit right now is 150 feet. Even Larry Rothschild commented on Nady's injury, questioning whether he'd be ready for the season, considering he's only 5 friggin' months removed from surgery, and you can go to this website to see how effective players have been coming off of surgery..it even shows players that have had multiple surgeries, and the outlook is NOT good:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_John_surgery

3.) "Gomes - Please. I could write forever..."

*yes, you could write forever, but I produced statistical analysis of his home runs per AB each year of his career. Fact is, he has not been given regular at bats, because his defense isn't that great, and he K's a lot. It doesn't take away from the fact that he still produced good hr/AB ratios, which you can actually project over a full season. Unlike Fontenot, Gomes has NOT been given a full-time job, and I strongly suspect it is from a combination of his K's and defense, but like I said, if Jaramillo can get his hands on him, and if he's healthy (which he's proved he is...unlike Nady), then he'd be a better option...and cheaper...which, as I mentioned, when you're on a limited budget it becomes INFINITELY more important to secure players that can actually help you on the field. We subtracted Fox's 11 hr, 44 RBI. Gomes has already proven he can beat those numbers in similar at bats. Why wouldn't you take that?

4.) "You said you can take Gomes year of 20 HR / 51 RBI and double it to project a full year..."

*I answered this above for the most part, but I'll add this...Yes, 29 other GM's haven't thrown money at him. But that was the case with Abreu and Hudson, and Pedro, among others. There are a LOT of factors involved, such as guaranteed MLB contracts vs minor league invites to playing time to position openings. Fact is, only really the Cubs and Yankees were actively looking for an outfielder at this juncture in the offseason. Does that mean that Nady (who also signed late with us), Winn (who just signed today with the Yankees), Gomes,Damon, Reed Johnson, and Baldelli are crappy players?!? Nope...it just means that teams don't have a need for an extra outfielder and/or aren't willing to meet crazy salary demands. Point is, Gomes isn't the only decent outfielder looking for work...are you going to say that Damon is a bad player?!?

5.) "Was I a Bradley supporter ?..."

*this was my bad, and I apologize for mistaking you. I honestly thought you were one of the ardent supporters of the Bradley signing. Sorry about that.

6.) You said Byrd is is "not projected to last through the year in CF". Huh ?

Who said that ?

*I believe this was one of the Bruce's that stated that...either Miles or Levine, and I will post it as soon as I can find the link...but it was almost immediately after his signing

7.) "Blalock - Yes, I agree with you he's a good player that I would love to have...."

*at this juncture...more than Nady? Highly doubtful

8.) "Ankiel - Athleticism is nice, but does not equal a good player. Joey Gathright was athletic too, how'd he work for us ?..."

*drawing a comparison from Ankiel to Gathright is completely laughable. First of all, Gathright NEVER could hit, while Ankiel produced a 25 hr, 71 RBI line in 2008. Yes, last year he stumbled, and obviously, his first year as full-time hitter he also stumbled, but he also injured himself while making a spectacular catch at the fence last year, something Byrd could only dream of doing. LaRussa and Hal MacRae both stated that was a MAJOR reason he didn't do well. He had neck and shoulder issues from that fateful catch all season and still played through pain. yes, I know it contradicts my, "don't sign injury risks", but this was his first known injury, and athleticism almost always projects better long-term than an immobile player like Byrd. You criticize Gomes in the OF, but just wait for Byrd. At 250 lbs already, he will NOT look good there in 2 years, much less 1 year.

I also need to disclaim the fact that I had a man crush on Ankiel for a LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time...not nearly as much as Adam Dunn, but still...Maybe Neil can back me up on this...but a few years ago, Ankiel was non-tendered by the Cardinals, and they re-signed him to a minor league invite. Back then, I was practically begging Hendry to pick him up, just as I was for Josh Hamilton.

Both of them would've been better CF options than we had, and they're both younger than Byrd, and far more athletic.

My final statement is this...Would Ankiel have been better than Byrd this season? Probably not...but he almost certainly will be better than him through the life of the contract, and I base that solely on body type. Players with Byrd's body type do NOT age well (and that includes Jonny Gomes...although Gomes is 3 years younger). Additionally, will Gomes produce more than Nady this year if he signs somewhere and gets about 300 AB's. I would say the likelihood of him outproducing Nady is nearly 99%. Would he outproduce Nady in 2011 though? Probably not. The problem with signing Nady to a one year deal coming off a second (and less successful type of surgery) TJ surgery, is you almost certainly will not get the best of that player...just as we didn't get the best of Dempster when we signed him off the scrap heap initially following his TJ surgery. The team that signs him next year will probably reap the rewards, and that is PRECISELY the problem I had with this signing. Nady is probably a better player than Gomes. He has a better body type, is better defensively, and hits for a higher average. Both K a ton and don't walk much...but short-term, Gomes was the better solution...Nady would've been a good Ankiel-type signing, where we get him for a year, plus a team option (which obviously...and unfortunately for us...didn't happen)

AMEN!!

great post........everyone is entitled to their opinion, but several bloggers on here (aaron) for one never uses stats; just mindless complaining that JH sucks so thank you.

thankfully all the stupid posts on ankiel when the cubs needed a RH OF to platoon w/ fukunuts will now end thanks to nady signing.

now it appears the blalock non-signing is soooooo wrong..........here's a clue blalock lovers..........there is not enough payroll for blalock for 2M(my guess) plus nady at 3.3M and a reliever....and if dlee and aram are healthy how many at-bats would blalock get.....he can't play the OF.(FYI-tracy has in the past)

stop the synder lovin' people.....he has been an absolute zero in the majors.......anyone remember brooks kiesniciek.....?.....

and i love angel guzman..........but please if he gets traded for gregerson(i would prefer an AA prospect....not flaherty or an A prospect plus stevens for example) it's not the end of the world.......guzman has yet to have a full year in the majors and last year he broke down in sept missing the whole month which if the cubs had been in contention would of been huge......he's been a top prospect for years and is always hurt......could it be he'll never be healthy and the cubs know his medical records.........that he would pass a physical now........and has somewhat high value now based on his 5/6 of a season last year.......so move him now to avoid another injury where he becomes rich hill...........worthless.

(i still would like him and a gregerson type.....never can have too much pitching and a strong bullpen will offset lilly's absence).

JH has 5 winning seasons in 7 yrs.......3 division titles........

sometimes i wonder about the bloggers on this site.......it states for cubs faithful.........more like complainers for some that JH can never do it right.

p.s. thanks tommy ricketts for doing the right thing and picking mesa.......!

you clearly don't read my posts, so I'll just leave it at that. Cubs1967...are you really Paul k just posting as a different person....LOL...get a life man...you can look it up...I put time into the statistical analysis. You just disagree with my opinion...like paul k...but don't lie about me not including stats

Brad Snyders winter league statistics for Cubs 1967 and everyone else.

Games/ABS / Ave / Runs / Hits / SB / 3b /

55 211 .379 46 80 16 2

/HR / RBI/ TB / BB / SO / OBP /SLG / OPS

9 48 127 31 42 463 .602 1.065

Now admittedly, this is in the weaker winter leagues...but it still shows a

pretty good player.

Last year at AAA, recovering from a broken hand in 89 games:

237 ABS/39 R/66H/16 2nd/3 3B/ 14 HR/

44 RBI/130 B/ 20 BB/68 SO/ 10 SB/4 CS

.335 OBP/ .549 SLG/ 883 OPS.

Not eye popping numbers...but put that

together with a plus/plus arm...consider the broken hand and how he has taken off in winter leagues...he can play all 3 outfield positions.

I think he is a viable option in the outfield.

Chances we see him this year are questionable with our recent additions...

But I still like the player.

i've looked at all my baseball cards dating back to 1975............the damnest thing...........none of them have winter ball stats on them.......how can that be...........

synder is a AAAA player.........stop dreamin'.

and when it comes to guzman..........name the last full healhty year since we signed him?....ya can't..........has not happened.

JH gave wood every opportunity and could not stay healthy and had to become a reliever......and the same for prior.........what did the cubs get for them......nothing.(rich hill also) let's not wait on guzman till he becomes worthless.........he's nowhere near a woody or prior in talent.

and gregerson sucky stats outside of petco are a concern..........but i doubt 1 year of statistical analysis is enough of a sample.

and i won't apologize for all the silly postings on rick .230 ankiel or hank blalock........both bat LH and every cubs fans reading this site should of known JH wanted a RH platoon for fukunuts......

and yes aaron i'm not paul k.........there just happens to be 2 people that look at your blogs and leave speechless.........

Cubs1967...I just reread your post.

Aaron proposed Ankiel prior to Byrd being signed for the centerfield position NOT for the platoon job with Fukodome.

So your statement about "every Cub fan

knows..." was also a misnomer.

Cubs 1967...If you read my post...I did not disagree with you re Guzman and his health...I just said Gregerson is the wrong guy...we can do better.

The one year of statistical analysis is all we have...based on that I would think it is a bad deal.

Please remember, you're the one that asked for statistics.

I also like Guzman...but if he's on the DL...I agree he does us no good. And if we can sell high on him ...fine...sell high...but I don't want to sell low.

As far as Snyder goes...well I just agree to disagree with you...I like him

and you don't...I'm ok with that.

Ankiel/Blalock you have to address to Aaron...he was the major proponent there.

Can we do without the sarcasm and inuendo now?

Cubs 1967...so you're willing to trade Guzman for Gregerson...that had a .65 era

in spacious Petco park and a 6.48 era everywhere else?

How do you think that will play in Wrigley?

I agree with you re Guzman...but I don't think Gregerson is the right guy.

Re Snyder...I'll answer you later...

Sorry you're irritated if someone happens to like another player...

I'll make sure to include any statistics

in any further posts.

I do not apologize for my viewpoints...

sorry you are so int0olerant of other's views.

looks like Cubs 1967 can't include his own stats...something he accused me of...LOL

How about some statistical proof to this arguement?

Nady for his career:

2257AB 87HR 144BB 449K (1K every 5.02AB)

Gomes:

1545AB 86HR 177BB 498K (1k every 3.10AB)

That settles it! Gomes strikes out more! And he has more power, and walks more, but he K's a lot more!

Them's the facts, jacks!

cc002600,

I agree with almost all of your points (with the exception of Blalock who I expect to get a salary similar to Nady). Well said.

David F,

Thanks.

We will see on Blalock. You might be right. But he's had some real nice years in the past, I would think there are a lot of teams after him, driving up his price tag. But maybe not.

TBD

I quit reading his comments when I realized he doesn't back up his "statistical" conclusions with actual analysis.

Paul k,

I think we've been down this road before, so give it a rest...I think it's a bit misleading that you say that, considering you stopped reading when you realized my opinion didn't align with yours, and you repeatedly tried the same comments before, "never backs up anything with statistical analysis", and we went over how I did...and that is mostly why the posts are so long, because I go at length explaining the reasoning.

The only thing you seem to add on here is just plain disagreement with me...Great...you disagree...and I'm fine with that, but don't lie about me not backing up what I say

I put "statistical" in quotations because that is what you call it. I call what you do 5th grade math and guessing.

I point this out because there are people that hear someone use fancy words and assume they know what they are talking about.

Paul K...I read this site for enjoyment...not to read personal attacks on anyone.

If you must persist in your attitude...

please post in the "rants and raves"

section of craigslist....It might be a better place for you to get your aggression out.

If you must post...look up the definition of "Stay classy"...because you have no clue...what it means.

well said

Suzy and Aaron,

my posts never get to name calling and I never call someone's opinion wrong. I will not hesitate to point out when people confuse opinion with fact.

In fact, the only disagreement I ever had on this site was about the use of analysis, or lack thereof. I never tell people to get a life, or call people retarded. I have more respect for people than that.

I figured this was an open forum that welcomed debate. I guess if you disagree with the people who post the most or have the longest posts, you are sent to craigslist.

Paul K...

I hate this type of thing.

Healthy debate is fine...and I welcome all diverse opinions...but don't plead innocent either...when you tell someone "what you call statistical analysis, I call 5th grade math...

That's just insulting to anyone and begging for a fight...It's not healthy discourse designed to be helpful or insightful.

There are tons of different viewpoints

here...speaking for myself only...I welcome them all...and until today...never attacked anyone.

Keep the personal attacks and inuendos out and I love to see your views.

We really need another end of the bullpen guy. Grabow, Guzman and Marmol could be solid in the 8th and 9th, but adding another quality arm as insurance for Guzman's injury risk, Marmol's possible wild streaks, and Grabow 's potential ineffectiveness would be nice.

The rotation could use another arm as well, but I think we can get by with the current rotation if the bullpen is improved. Improving the pen will be cheaper than improving the rotation.

I'd love love to us sign Smoltz if he'd take $1-2 million ... maybe that's not enough though.

Reportedly, Smoltz wants to start. I wouldn't mind having him either...but think the Cubs are done adding, except by trade.

David, Levine seems to think a Guzman for Gregerson trade might be the way the Cubs are leaning.

How do you, (or anyone else) feel about that type of trade?

Let's get started with ST!