Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein released his list of the top 11 prospects in the Cubs' system. For the first time in several years the best of Cubs system did not receive a ranking below a three-star prospect.
Goldstein pointed out that despite a disappointing 2009 at the big league level, the Cubs farm system had unmitigated success last year. The Cubs organization is looking up and will be ranked higher in Baseball Prospectus' organizational rankings.
Josh Vitters and Starlin Castro topped Goldstein's list as the two five-star prospects in the system. Of the 11 top prospects, six are position players ...
Cubs Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Josh Vitters - 3B (1)
2. Starlin Castro - SS (NR)
Four-Star Prospects
3. Hak-Ju Lee - SS (4)
4. Brett Jackson - OF (Drafted in 2009)
Three-Star Prospects
5. Andrew Cashner - RHP (5)
6. Jay Jackson - RHP (NR)
7. Chris Carpenter - RHP (NR)
8. Chris Archer - RHP (NR)
9. Kyler Burke - OF (NR)
10. Ryan Flaherty - INF (8)
11. John Gaub - LHP (NR)
Four More
12. Chris Huseby - RHP
13. Logan Watkins - INF
14. Dae-Eun Rhee - LHP
15. Darwin Barney - SS
The Sleeper
- Rafael Dolis
Note - Last Year's Ranking by Baseball Prospectus in Parenthesis - NR = Not Ranked
Due to the restrictions of publishing subscription only content, here are a few notes from Kevin Goldstein on the Cubs top prospects.
Josh Vitters - One of the sweetest swings in the minors. Was having a breakout year in 2009 before an injured hand slowed his progress. Perfect World Projection: a bigger, stronger version of Howie Kendrick. Could begin 2010 in Double-A.
Starlin Castro - Castro can hit, contact hitter. Rocket balls from line to line. Defense fundamentals are outstanding for his level and age ... good range and plus arm. Scouts think he could move to second base down the road. Perfect World Projection: An above average shortstop that can hit second in a lineup. Likely to start the year in Double-A, the Cubs are trying not to rush him.
Hak-Ju Lee - Lee's pure upside is higher than any infielder in the system, including Starlin Castro. Line-drive bat with gap power could hit double-digit homers on an annual basis. Plus defender with an above average arm and a flair for dramatic plays. Perfect World Projection: An occasional All-Star shortstop that can hit leadoff. The Cubs organization is envisioning a middle infield of Lee at short and Castro at second with the duo at the top of the lineup. Likely to start the year in Peoria.
Darwin Barney - One of the best defenders in the minors. Has enough offense to be a nice utility player.
Top 10 Cubs Prospects 25 and Under
- Josh Vitters
- Starlin Castro
- Hak-Ju Lee
- Brett Jackson
- Andrew Cashner
- Jay Jackson
- Jeff Samardzija
- Chris Archer
- Kyler Burke
- Ryan Flaherty
Cubs Top 11 Prospects - Future Shock
For comparison, here are the rankings of the Cubs' top prospects from John Sickels of Minor League Ball.com, Fangraphs and Baseball America.
Minor League Ball's Top 20 Cubs Prospects
(Grades are preliminary and subject to change)
- Starlin Castro - SS (B+)
- Josh Vitters - 3B (B+)
- Brett Jackson - OF (B)
- Jay Jackson - RHP (B)
- Andrew Cashner - RHP (B)
- Hak-Ju Lee - SS (B)
- Chris Carpenter - RHP (B-)
- Kyler Burke - OF (B-)
- Ryan Flaherty - INF (B-)
- D.J. LaMahieu - INF (C+)
- Brooks Raley - LHP (C+)
- Logan Watkins - 2B (C+)
- Esmailin Caridad - RHP (C+)
- Blake Parker - RHP (C+)
- John Gaub - LHP (C+)
- Matt Spencer - OF-1B (C+)
- Dae-Eun Rhee - RHP (C+)
- Casey Coleman - RHP (C+)
- Tyler Colvin - OF (C)
- Jeff Beliveau - LHP (C)
Honorable Mentions - Each with a C Grade
- James Adduci - OF
- Jeff Antigua - LHP
- Chris Archer - RHP
- Darwin Barney - SS
- Justin Bristow - RHP
- David Cales - RHP
- Welington Castillo - C
- Rafael Dolis - RHP
- Brandon Guyer - OF
- Chris Huseby - RHP
- Austin Kirk - LHP
- Junior Lake - SS
- Trey McNutt - RHP
- Mike Parisi - RHP
- Chris Rusin - LHP
- James Russell - LHP
- Ryan Searle - RHP
- Tony Thomas - 2B
Click here to read John Sickels full report on the Cubs' farm system.
Fangraphs Top 10 Cubs Prospects of 2010
- Andrew Cashner - RHP
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Josh Vitters - 3B
- Hak-Ju Lee - SS
- Jay Jackson - RHP
- Chris Carpenter - RHP
- Ryan Flaherty - INF
- Dae-Eun Rhee - RHP
- Logan Watkins - 2B
- John Gaub - LHP
Click here for the full Fangraphs article on the Cubs Top Prospects ... with reports on each of the players.
Baseball America's Top 10 Cubs Prospects of 2010
- Starlin Castro - SS
- Brett Jackson - OF
- Josh Vitters - 3B
- Andrew Cashner - RHP
- Jay Jackson - RHP
- Hak-Ju Lee - SS
- Logan Watkins - 2B
- Chris Carpenter - RHP
- Ryan Flaherty - IF
- D.J. LeMahieu - SS-2B
Click here for more from Baseball America on the Cubs' top prospects.
Here is in depth look at The Best in Cubs System from the VineLine.
Baseball America's Prospect Handbook should hit the stands soon. The CCO will post their list of the top 30 prospects in the Cubs' system.
Can Vitters play anywhere other than third? Or is he just going to get blocked by Aramis?
The rumor is Vitters could be moved to first base.
As for Aramis, he has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2010 season. It will interesting to see if he exercises it.
In an ideal situation, Aramis would move to 1B next year with Vitters being the 3B for the future. I'd really like to see Vitters/Castro on the left side (for hopefully years to come).
With the reality aside that prospects rarely make the "perfect world" leap to the majors, it is hard to not be encouraged by the Cub farm finally looking up. You have to love all the infield position players on the list.
There has been a lot of comments lately about Aramis moving to 1B, is there really anything to this idea besides fans posting their idea? And I'm not belittling the posters here, just wondering if there has been any talk in the system toward this idea?
I have not heard ARam to 1B, other than people speculating, that they are interchangeable positions (not always the case). One thing for people to remember is ARam can opt out of his contract after this year, (2011 - 14.6 million, 2012 - $16.0 million). Now I know most people might say that the market is down, why would he not take 2 years at 30.6 million guaranteed. If ARam and his agent believe they can get 4 or even 5 years at this range they will opt out. Most likely depends on how he produces this year (that's a good thing for us in 2010). No matter what he will want an extension to not opt out. This is where Vitters comes in. If Vitters will be able to play 1B or 3B, this will give the Cubs the flexibility to let Lee to go to FA or ARam to opt out. For that to happen Vitters needs to have a good year as well.
If the Cubs let Lee, Lilly go to FA and ARam opts out, and the Cubs can fill Lilly rotation spot, in house and Vitters can fill Lee or ARam, the Cubs would get back some payroll flexibility they would need to make trades for big names and/or to sign players in FA after 2010 and 2011 (big 1B group after 2011.
Middle IF should not cost us big $$ for quite a few years, with the depth in the minors coming up. Catcher as well should be a deal.
Break it down all you want, but having a better farm system, is like a snowball rolling down a hill gaining size and momentum.
Baseball Prospectus' "Perfect World" projection for Castro isn't anywhere near what most Cubs fans are expecting from him. Other than a great AFL (with a very small sample size) where do all the superstar projections for Castro come from? It's possible of course, but I just don't see it from the stats yet. My view is that Castro has become highly overrated.
That said, the overall report is good news for the system ... two 5 star guys and two 4 star guy ... much improved from last year.
How many times have we seen individuals in baseball take-off which defy the "projections or prior stats"?
Thank goodness we never wrote Sandberg off for his 1-32 start in the majors.
It happens of course, but how many more times have we seen prospects fail.
Also, Sandberg's 1-32 start is exactly my point about sample sizes. Sandberg was a top prospect because of what he did in his age 20 and 21 seasons (the 1 for 32 was meaningless) ... hopefully Castro will also show great strides in his age 20 and 21 seasons as well. Sandberg's 1 for 32 start, however, is exactly why a players success or failure (or a team's success or failure) in the post season is meaningless. A great player can easily go 1 for 32 in the playoffs and a great team can easily lose three in a row ... it says nothing about the team or the player. That's why teams and management should be judged on division titles and aggregate wins and not on World Series titles or play-off runs.
Neil, is the top ten prospects 25 and under your list?
Steve, no it is not. That list is from Baseball Prospectus.
No way is this list correct. What about Atkins,Berg and Parker? These guys are way better than some of the guys listed. No way Vitters is no. 1, I've seen him play enough to know. Berg and Parker have proven they can play at a high level. Samardzija is up for a starting position in the rotation. This list is just wrong. Goldstein knows nothing about the cubs.
I don't know about you guys, but based on last year's stats in the minors, I would really look forward to a starting lineup in 1-2 years of:
Hak Ju Lee-SS
Castro-2B
Burke-RF
Vitters-3B
Jackson-CF
Ridling/LaHair-1B
Snyder-LF
W. Castillo-C
bench: Chirinos-C, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Spencer, Guyer
and a rotation of:
Z
Cashner
Antigua
Jackson
Rhee/Carpenter/Coleman/Samardzija/etc.
It'll never happen, but one could hope that the Ricketts family has the foresight to make it happen, because this is becoming a league-wide phenomenon now, with even big market teams like the Red Sox and Phillies getting in on the act of building from within. Just look at the Brewers projected lineup that includes:
1B-Fielder
2B-Weeks
SS-Escobar
3B-Gamel
LF-Braun
RF-Hart
Only their CF and catcher are projected to be from outside the organization, and both of those might be filled from within. Even the Cards have a largely system-built team with the likes of:
C-Molina
1B-Pujols
2B-Shumaker
SS-Ryan
3B-Freese (projected starter)
CF-Rasmus
Only LF (Holliday) and RF (Ludwick) are from outside their organization
How about the Reds?
C-Hanigan
1B-Votto
SS-Janish
LF-Stubbs
CF-Dickerson
RF-Bruce
Only 2B (Phillips) and 3B (Rolen...whom they got in exchange for their own homegrown 3B, Encarnacion) are from outside the organization.
My point is that we need to start thinking of the future. This team, due to injury/age, will almost surely not amount to anything next year. Know how I know? The average age of the Mets lineup at the start of last year was 32 years old, nearly identical to what ours will start at this year. You saw the injuries they had, didn't you? And the funny thing is, theirs kind of came out of nowhere. Most of their players didn't have much injury history prior to last year, and yet they all missed huge chunks of the season. We're going into next season with MAJOR injury/age risks in Lee, ARAM, Soriano, Lilly, and even Z and Dempster had injuries last year.
Baseball management historically over the advent of free agency for the nearly 30 years, has favored veterans, but that thinking has changed. In fact, prior to free agency, teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. were so good for so long, because they had excellent player development from within. The Cubs did too, they just had idiots in management that traded away their good young talent for crap veterans.
But in recent years, we've seen how veteran leadership is largely overrated, when teams like the Rays, Rockies, Phillies, Angels, and Marlins have made World Series with a majority of homegrown talent. Then, you have other teams like the D'Backs, Twins, and Dodgers that have made the playoffs with a majority of homegrown players as well.
Consider that only Theriot and Soto are homegrown, and projected starters, and you'll get my point. Also, consider that only Zambrano and Wells are projected homegrown players in the rotation, and you begin to see just how far behind we really are.
Just FYI, the Phillies recent teams have:
C-Ruiz
1B-Howard
2B-Utley
SS-Rollins
CF-Victorino (Via Rule 5)
I mean, just look around the league, and you'll see homegrown talent everywhere:
Yankees:
C-Posada
2B-Cano
SS-Jeter
OF-Gardner, Cabrera (recently traded)
Pettitte, Chamberlain, Hughes, and most importantly, Rivera
Red Sox:
1B-Youkilis
2B-Pedroia
SS-Lowrie
CF-Ellsbury
Dodgers:
C-Martin
1B-Loney
3B-DeWitt
CF-Kemp
RF-Eithier (though he had just one season upon trade from A's in their minors)
I can honestly say that even if Lee hits like 25-30 hr and 80-95 RBI (which isn't even likely given his neck injury and age), I wouldn't extend his contract. Here's just a preliminary list of potential FA 1B next season (all of whom will be several years younger than Lee): Dunn, Cantu, LaRoche, Carlos Pena, and Pujols (has team option though that will certainly be picked up). We also recently acquired Bryan LaHair and Matt Spencer, both of whom have displayed power in the minors and can play 1B...and don't forget Ridling in the low minors, and the ability to have Vitters play 1B if necessary and a guy like Flaherty move to 3B.
You might question: "but what if XYZ player doesn't hit for power in the majors?" And to that, I would say, yes, it's a possibility, but wasn't it also a possibility with guys like Votto, Bruce, Pujols, Dunn, Howard, and Teixeira when they first came up?!?
That's why you try to hedge against that by signing a low cost veteran like a Nady, etc. just in case they struggle initially, but the point is, none of those players could prove themselves without first having a shot. Funny things is, some of them struggled initially, but their teams stuck with them.
Until Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella are no longer with this team, there is almost no way a young position player will be given a chance. Know how I know this?
Exhibit A: Corey Patterson. Up, down, up, down, up, down. That was his life early on with the Cubs, then he has a good season, and blows out his knee, then struggles a little the next season, and a lot the following season, and never gets out of the doghouse. Yes, he hasn't done anything with teams since then, but the fact is, with good coaching, he probably could have been a good player for us.
Exhibit B: Matt Murton. Murton comes up, lights it up in his brief call-up, earns a starting spot the following season and does above average for us in LF, then loses a spot altogether on the team when they sign Soriano. The Cubs were trying to make him into something he wasn't...a 25+hr, 90+RBI player. He was more like a .300+ hitter, 15-20 hr, 60-80 RBI everyday player, which isn't bad at all.
Exhibit C: Felix Pie. This should technically be the only evidence you need of how a position player can't succeed with us as it currently stands with Piniella and Hendry. Pie was much like Patterson...up, down, up, down, etc., only unlike Patterson, he never truly got consistent AB's in a row. Pie finished last season with 253 AB's, more than he received in 2 years with the Cubs , and had a .266 avg, with a .326 OBP, and 10 doubles, 3 triples, 9 hr, and 29 RBI. Guess what Curtis Granderson did at 24 years old in 162 AB's? .272 avg, .314 OBP, 6 doubles, 3 triples, 8 hr, 20 RBI. The following year, he gets 596 AB's, .260 avg, .335 OBP and 31 doubles, 9 triples, 19 hr, 68 RBI.
I would be willing to bet a large sum of money that if Pie gets Granderson-like AB's next year, he will equal and/or best Granderson's stats in his first full season.
I still will never forgive Hendry for that trade, just like I won't forgive him for the DeRosa trade, or not getting Josh Hamilton when he had a chance in the Rule 5, especially when he openly needed an OF as they were dissatisfied with Jacque Jones, and needed a 4th OF anyhow.
About the only other teams I can think of that are in a similar position that we're in, is the Astros and Mets, though at least the Mets have David Wright and Jose Reyes already in their lineup. Theriot doesn't inspire much confidence, and neither does Soto.
I also am not delusional as I realize bringing up the likes of Lee, Castro, Vitters, Burke, Jackson, etc., will come with growing pains, and we'll probably not be that great for awhile, but think of the struggles the Phillies, Rays, Rockies, etc. went through before they started getting it rolling. Then think of how they used one of their own homegrown guys (Holliday), and turned him into a closer (Street), stand-out outfielder of the future (Gonzalez) and solid starting pitcher (Greg Smith). Fact is, you do NOT need "name" players like Soriano, Lee, Byrd, Fukudome, and even ARAM to win. Gonzalez was a no-name player until he stood out this year, and guys like Utley and Howard were once rookies too that nobody expected much from. Also, think of guys like Ianetta, Stewart, Tulowitzki, Seth Smith, and Fowler. Almost all of them had struggles upon their initial call-ups, and even in their sophomore years, and yet the Rockies still made the playoffs, didn't they? How? Well, it's quite simple, actually. While their individual averages/OBPs/Power numbers might not be ideal, they played with heart, and they played like a team. I can remember going to a game at Coors Field last year against the Cubs, and I sat with a bunch of Cubs fans, and we laughed at how selfish our team was playing. Everyone was playing for themselves...to pad their own stats, while Rockies players were moving runners along, working the count, and playing good fundamental baseball. So was it their rotation that got them to the playoffs then? Absolutely NOT!! Only Jimenez had an ERA below 4.04, and only Street had an sub 4 ERA in their pen. Late season additions like Fogg, Contreras, and Betancourt also had sub 4 ERA's. Get my point though? Do you also realize they only had one player (Tulo) who had 90+RBI? They also only had one player (Helton), who had a .300+avg. So if you think you have to have a bunch of superstars hitting 30+hr, 100+RBI, you are mistaken. Additionally, they had an average age in their lineup of 27 years old.....
just sayin'....
oh...and additionally, the Rays the year before had an average age of 26 years old....
just sayin'....
Aaron...agreed.
All we here about is "adding this aged veteran or that one". Same 'ol crap, but that's what you should expect with an old world manager and a traditional GM.
Last year we had to get that left-handed bat...it was just "so critical" based on the Dodgers series. That genius move with Bradley blew up, so now, a year later, and "oh, the balanced lineup deal isn't such a big deal". This duo of Hendry/Pinella is just so outdated.
I hope some of the youngsters really show in spring training so that Pinella will have some difficult decisions to make with the likes of Soriano and Fukodome....and face the fans wrath if he doesn't.
Think about it....heading into his 3rd year with the team, name a player that Pinella (our all-world manager) has developed into truly a better performer. Perhaps Theriot as a sole possibility.
Who dat say?
Geaux Saints! =)))))
And I don't say that to be obnoxious. Hell froze over. If the Saints can make it then the Cubs will surely fallow.
Geaux Cubs!
:) Saints in heaven...Favre's nightmare...
Great game, Matt.....:) :) :)
I'm thinking about sending sweaters and jackets to some of our politicians here in the NOLA, because god knows that they'll need them in hell...Can't tell ya'll all that went down last night, because I don't remember much of it. But if you get a chance to, listen to the radio broadcast of Garrett Hartley's kick. The guy that does the Saints games on the radio (Jim Henderson), is one of the best in the biz...and you can tell that he's waited his whole life to be able to say what he deliriously said last night.
Meanwhile...back to the Cubbies. I don't know why managers have a "doghouse" to begin with...especially if the player is performing (Fox). And while I suppose it's because of the Win-Now environment that we have, it should become painfully obvious that our young players need to have confidence that they can go into a slump and not be sent down. Playing the hot bat is one thing, but for chrissakes, don't send the guy to AAA if he maybe just needs to be benched for a few days to get his swing back.
Aaron,
Agree with you completely but Cubs fans are part of the problem. They can kill players with their booing and dislike of players. They are humans with feelings and not robots like some people think. It would be cool to see the growth of a group into a great team but not sure the fans would be patient enough.