Oh man, could you imagine what Ellsbury could do for the Cubs? Why does Rogers torture us so with these insane rumors?

Perez has great speed and gets on base so he would be a nice addition for us in CF and leading off, but dealing a top 5 prospect for him would be too much. Perez doesn't have a ton of upside and was never regarded as a top 5 prospect himself in the rays system. If we could acquire him for couple prospects in the 8-15 range (like a Gaub and a Flaherty), then I think it would be a good gamble.

lets hope something happens soon, as this winter is getting longer and longer with the bears and bulls not good at all.

just looking down the road at this roster, we are going to be very right handed. with Soriano, Ram, Castro, Soto, and Maybe Lee if he is resigned. So, maybe Vitters is expendable, given his lack of Defensive prowess at 3B and the fact that he is RH, he is also 2 years away from the majors, plus whatever time it takes for him to adjust to the ML level. You have to think that 2B, CF, RF need to project as LH spots. And 1B if Lee is not brought back.

Neil, It's funny...I was looking at the 40 man roster yesterday...and you post it today.

What are your thoughts on Mitch Atkins and Marcus Mateo? Do you see either contributing to the Cubs?
If not, roster spots are valuable.

I for one like the Perez idea better than I do Byrd, Ankiel or Podsednik. The latter three are pretty typical Hendry moves.

Who would command more in trade - Pie or Perez?

Brandon, Thanks for looking.

Without seeing the article...I still
have to believe the overriding cause
was the Cubs screwing around with the
$$$ offer until it was too late.

As I remember it...the Cubs offered slightly more than the Braves...but not until the last minute...and after some acrimonious negotions.

Anyway, it's spilled milk...but I would love to see that article.

Thanks again, Brandon

Neil,
Adduci is on the 40 man roster - what are the chances he is given a shot in spring training to win the CF job? He had pretty impressive numbers in AA ball last year. 377 OBP, 300 BA, plus 35 stolen bases.

I've been thinking, Rickett's should come out and say if funds would be available for the right player. Then the Cubs should throw a 5yr 18m deal out there for Holliday. I think this would force the Cardinals to up there offer to retain him and hopefully put them in the position the Cubs are today with budget contraints. Worse case we end up with Matt in RF and worse budget problems!

Why not do both -get Perez and wait out the Red Sox. If they want Gonzalez - they'll get him. For Ellsbury - I would trade any combination of prospects, except Castro.

If you compare Ellsbury, Perez, Pie and Adduci based on their minor league stats, they arent drastically different. Ellsbury stands out a bit overall. Pie is clearly more of a power player than they other three. Perez has very good SB numbers but not as good as Ellsbury. Adduci is pretty clearly a step down in power.

ELLSBURRYYYYYYYYYY WOULD BE AMAZING...And better yet, I wouldnt have to be salty about Granderson anymore.

Ellsbury is almost TOO perfect for the Cubs,
-Great Defense
-Leadoff man
-Amazing speed (70 SBs)
-Lefty bat
-Under conract for 4 years (cheap)
-26 years old

The Red Sox will likely want a SS back, I say we keep Theriot for the meantime and trade them Jay Jackson in the deal (good prospect but we have Castro anyways)

Bleacherreport.com has the a 3way deal looking like this:

Red Sox Get: Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Theriot

Cubs Get: Jacoby Ellsbury

Padres Get: Clay Bucholz, Ryan Westmoreland, and 1-2 midlevel prospects

It states the RedSox may be the ones to hold this deal up cuz of Westmoreland (I think it would be amazing for them)

But like I said I would rather include Jay Jackson and keep Theriot.

This seems like a longshot and we all know how easy it was to work out a certain 3 way deal with the Padres for a certain pitcher that is now on a certain Chicago team...

Neil; You think it could happen!?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/314995-blockbuster-trade-brewing-between-the-red-sox-cubs-and-padres

Sorry, heres the link

Hendry I think will wait til after the first of the year before contemplating any moves or signings.

I think he is still contemplating what contribution the young players can make, along with options in the trade and free agent markets.

In regards to the centerfield situation I think he is playing it smart by not trying to commit to one individual and keeping the options open. Hopefully something will be decided soon in regards to keeping to inhouse options such as Fuld, a trade or a free agent signing.

The Cubs best long term interest remains to develop the farm system and I think they have gradually done that over the last few years but there is still a lot of work to do given that many baseball experts only think the Cubs system is in the middle of the pack.

That is one reason I think they are very unwilling to trade any prospects.

As noted by someone else the key to the Cubs long term success is building a core of young talent and then added key pieces via trade of free agency.

Hendry cannot win here. If he doesn't sign anyone he's sitting on his hands...if he runs out and signs a Byrd, Cameron whoever at multi years he is being the jittering fool of years past.

But I with you diehard, I like that he is being patient right now. The fact that he hasn't given Byrd - a guy he's coveted for a couple years - the 3 and 18M$ is telling. The upper management definitely has his ear, or at the least has the fear of god in him (for his job). And it aint Crane, he has been just as complicit.

Ellsbury will not happen as the Padres said they are going to hold onto Adrian Gonzalez until July. As for Johnny Damon (if it would even happen)I'm split 50-50 he's a winner and a great offensive player, but he's getting old, not a very good defender and had help at the launching pad... I still want to see us throw a cheap 1 year deal with incentives at Rocco Baldelli and sign Reed as a 4th outfielder other than that I'm not fond of any free agents on the market.

Is Rocco really capable of playing? If so, I like that idea....But he's a huge risk re the DL.

Another low cost option would be to go back to Edmunds...I heard he still would like to play...but the Cubs would have to make that move soon...to give him time to get back in shape...maybe a minor league deal with a time limit to
hit the majors.

Have to just chime in quickly on this Sandberg/Maddux deal. In "Second to home" Ryno states very clearly that he was opposed to the way that the Maddux deal was handled. Along with many other bungled Himes moves (Eck).

It is unfair to say that Sandberg had anything negatively to do with Maddux. By my understanding, he appreciated his talent and head for the game. If need be I will go and dig up the book, it has been a while since I read it, but that one section regarding the horrid mismanagement of players stands out in my head. It was one of the reasons Ryno retired prematurely.

I think we are all in agreement about CF and the veteran bullpen pitcher. Since the options are so bad, I'd rather not spend much money on them. Instead, I'd rather put that money on getting Orlando Hudson. Not because I think 2B is more important then CF or a good bullpen, but simply because that's the only place we could get the best value for our free-agent dollar. I wish we could re-sign Reed Johnson, but the Yanks are going to price him out of our market.
As for Rocco, I looked him up earlier. He only played in 62 games for the Red Sox last season, and hit .253.
J Edmonds retired because he refused to accept a minor league contract... I doubt that has changed.

Sometimes I wish I wouldn't look at the rumors and get my hopes set on anything. I think we all need to understand that any trade that JH has the ability of completing from here on out is picking up some player who has recently been through a surgery of some kind but had an outstanding career two years before injury and one year before a "solid season". Then this player will rehab with us all season and be rotated up and down like a Farris wheel while we wait for him to "catch on to his old self". Its the only logical thing to consider if we look at JH history...especially since he is hands are going to be tied on his only other specialty, which is giving ridiculous long term high paying contracts. Hope everyone on the site has a great New Year and I hope our team has one too.

With the retirement of the best pitcher of my lifetime Greg Maddux, one cannot help but look back at the scenario that led to Maddux leaving the Cubs to sign with the Atlanta Braves. Believe it or not, one of the best accounts of what happened according to both Maddux and Himes is in Carrie Muscat’s 2001 book Banks to Sandberg to Grace.

Just to relive what had happened after the 1991 season. That offseason the Cubs signed Maddux’ good friend Mike Morgan to a three year deal. At the same time the Cubs made a 5 year/$25 million offer to Maddux. Maddux and Boras did not accept the offer on the spot. The Cubs left the offer out there. Three days later Maddux and Boras accepted, only to be informed by the Cubs that the offer was no longer on the table. At the All Star Game, the Cubs made the same offer to Maddux and Boras, by this time Boras said Maddux intended to test the free agent market. Himes upped the offer by $500,000 a year but Boras and Maddux were still intent on testing the free agent market. Well, Maddux went on to win the 1991 Cy Young Award. After the season, Himes, Ned Colletti, Dennis Homerin and Tribune big wig Stanton Cook flew to Orange County to meet with Boras. They offered Maddux 5 years/$27.5 million (the same offer Himes had made). Himes was pissed that Boras had him bidding against himself. Boras’ answer was to have Maddux test the free agent market to find out what the market was. We pickup at the end of that meeting with Himes’ account from Muscat’s book:

They said, “We’re going to test the market and take the tour.”

I said, OK, but from this point on, when I leave here, my objective is to find pitchers. I’ve got to go out and find pitchers. I can’t wait, and all of a sudden you go out and sign with somebody else. Where does that leave me?”
Well he went out and got pitching. Himes went out and signed Randy Myers, Dan Plesac and Jose Guzman.

Himes picks the story back up:
I copied this enjoy from another blog called waxpaperbeercup. By the sounds of it I was wrong.

It got down to where, at the winter meetings at Louisville, Boras was still out there hustling and shopping Greg and he found out there weren’t any teams. There were only a couple teams who could afford him, and they did not want to match our offer.

I had just signed Randy Myers, Dan Plesac, Jose Guzman. That money was for him. That was his money. I had to spend it somewhere else to make sure we had some pitching. All Greg had to do was say yes. I wish that had happened.

I get off the plane in Chicago after returning from the winter meetings. I get an emergency telephone message from Scott Boras. He told me Greg really wanted to sign with the Cubs. I said, “I don’t have any money.” Looking back, maybe I should’ve gotten on the phone and asked the Tribune Company for more money. Maybe they would’ve said yes. I didn’t think that was my position to go begging for money once I’d agreed on a budget. I just didn’t do things that way.

Two hours before they announced him signing with Atlanta, Greg wanted to know if we could sign him. Greg had Stan Cook earlier. I don’t know what Stan said to Greg. I told Boras, “We don’t have any money.”
Here’s how Maddux recalled the situation in the same book:

…The only way to find out what my market value was was to go through free agency. And once I talked to the Yankees and Braves, then they no longer had interest in signing me.

As soon as they signed Guzman, they said, “The offer we made you was yours until we signed another pitcher.” I think they signed another pitcher the next morning like at 9:00.

I really think it was all a bunch of hogwash. I think what they wanted to do was they wanted to get three pitchers instead of one and they didn’t say it. That’s why it got ugley. That’s where all the accusations came from on both sides, on my side and their side. Looking back on it, as much as I enjoyed playing in Chicago and as much as I enjoyed living there and being a Cub, the grass was greener on the other side. I never thought playing for another organization would be better than it was playing for Chicago. It was a blessing in disguise.

I’m glad I had an opportunity to come over here and not only play for the braves, but play for Bobby Cox, and play for an organization that is run the way the players would run it if they were running it. I think we do everything we need to do to be the best players we can be on the field and no more. And I think the work habits are better on the important things. Looking back, I’m glad it happened. At the time I was crushed. I’m glad it happened

I know I've already made comments like this already this offseason, but I get this distinct feeling that Hendry will do the wrong thing yet again, and it'll be 2009 all over again.

1)Trades Heilman for White and Maine of the D'Backs, 2 "prospects" that weren't even close to the amount it took to get Heilman in the first place, which was essentially Pie (to get Olson), Olson himself, and Cedeno.

2)Signs John Grabow to ridiculous 2 yr $7.5 million deal. Almost unanimously, the baseball community criticized this deal, proving yet again that Hendry almost always overpays for marginal talent. Grabow had 5 BB/9 last year, and throughout his career has proven to be an average talent to begin with. Grabow ranks the 4th worst signing of this offseason. Just think about this deal, he'll average $3.75 million/yr. PLUS, he's got bone chips in his elbow already. Smart Jimbo....real smart. Consider this: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/best-and-worst-signings-so-far.html
For less money, the Cubs could've signed Putz, Capps, Igarashi, and Escobar, guys I'd definitely take a chance on over Grabow anyday.

3)Trades Miles (no big deal) and Fox (huge deal) for 3 marginal talents in Gray, Spencer, and Morla. Fox alone was worth a top prospect. The reason I say that, is if Fernando Perez is worth a top prospect, then what does a career minor league average of 20+ hr, 80+ RBI, and 11 hr, 44 RBI in just 216 AB's in MLB get you? Exactly...Yes, he had trouble with breaking pitches, but Fox could absolutely obliterate the ball, and there's reason to believe under the tutelage of Jaramillo, he'd become a dominant offensive force.

4)drafts Mike Parisi in the Rule 5, who was coming off an injury shortened season, and has below average MLB results thus far, when the true need was offense, and given internal candidates for pitching, this pick would've been better served on offense than pitching

5)Trades Bradley for Silva. At face value, you'd say this was a win just based on ridding the team of the cancer that is Bradley. But we soon learned that there was a 4 team deal on the table that would've sent Castillo and Burrell to the Cubs, who'd then flip Burrell to another team after the trade was completed, and it fell through. You almost have to think that given the slow movement by Hendry on trade fronts throughout his career that he over-played his hand, and caused the deal to flop. The Mets want out from under Castillo so they can sign Hudson, the Rays want to rid themselves of Burrell, and the Angels wanted to rid themselves of Matthews Jr. at all costs, so you have to almost assume that Hendry was the reason the deal fell through. Instead we get a fat ass, overpaid waste of a roster space in Silva, and save a grand total of $5.5 million this year, which, we might not even be able to find a CF, 2B, or starting pitcher for that amount, whereas Castillo would at least solve 2B, and Burrell could probably be flipped for a useful piece, because he wasn't a turd like Bradley was.

So you see...just look at this offseason compared to last, and you'll notice they're eerily similar.

DeRosa trade=Fox trade. Yes, Fox was average defensively at every position he played, and he could've play 2B like DeRosa, but he has more power than DeRosa, and he could also catch in a pinch. He could play 3B, 1B, LF, and RF, which is still pretty valuable to have

Gregg trade (and subsequent contract offer)=Grabow signing

you can't really compare the others, because we have pitching instead of Gathright and Bradley, but we have absolutely no useful pieces this offseason. Parisi, Silva, Maine, Gray, Morla, Spencer, White almost certainly will not see the light of day in a Cubs uniform. You can almost guarantee that fact, based on Samardzija, Cashner, Gaub, Berg, Caridad, Flaherty, and Ridling as alternatives on the 40-man or in our system already.

Thus far, we have lost 23 hr, 84 RBI from Fox and Bradley. Yes, it's true that it's "addition by subtraction" with Bradley, but you have to play statistics here, and it's just like I was screaming about last offseason when we essentially replaced DeRosa's production with Aaron Miles, and Edmond's production with Bradley. When you start putting things into that perspective, you'll understand just how predictions work, and how most betting odds are made in Vegas.

So, let's go over our options thus far at key positions:

2B:
Baker-career high was 2008 with 12 hr, 48 RBI (albeit in the launching pad of Colorado)
Fontenot-career high in 2009 with 9 hr, 43 RBI ('08 was 9 hr, 40 RBI)
Blanco-career high was 2009 with 1 hr, 12 RBI
Lopez-career high was 2005 with 23 hr, 85 RBI ('09 was 9 hr, 57 RBI)
Hudson-career high was 2006 with 15 hr, 67 RBI ('09 was 9 hr, 62 RBI)

CF:
Fuld-1 hr, 2 RBI (PA-THE-TIC); best in minors was 2008 6 hr, 52 RBI (but a .264 avg, .358 OBP)
Adduci-best season in minors was 2009 with 4 hr, 51 RBI..and 35 SB
Ankiel-best season was 2008, 25 hr, 71 RBI (2009 was 11 hr, 38 RBI in an injury plagued season)
Byrd-best season was 2009 with 20 hr, 89 RBI
Podsednik-best season was 2004 with 12 hr, 39 RBI and 70 SB (best overall was probably 2003 with a .314 avg, .379 OBP, 9 hr, 58 RBI and 43 SB while 2009 was .304 avg, .353 OBP, 7 hr, 48 RBI, 30 SB)

Pods will be 34, Byrd will be 32, and Ankiel will be 30. Byrd also is hovering close to 250 lbs, which means he will NOT be a CF maybe as soon as next season. Ankiel is the youngest of the 3, is more powerful and more athletic...even more so than Podsednik.

If I had a say, I'd vote for signing Ankiel and Felipe Lopez, as both would cost less than the other options. Even worst case scenario, if you average his worst and best full seasons together, you get 18 hr, 55 RBI. With Lopez, it's 15 hr, 66 RBI. 15 might be a little too ambitious for Lopez considering his recent decline in power, but the RBI is very reasonable.

So just by getting Ankiel 18 hr, 55 RBI and Lopez...let's downgrade it to 9 hr, 60 RBI, you have 27 hr, 115 RBI, which is 4 hr, 31 RBI more than what we had with Fox and Bradley. Essentially what you have is 3 players in just 2 bats, essentially equaling an entire bench bat with 4 hr, 31 RBI. Let's just say that Ankiel gets his 25 hr, 71 RBI or more with Jaramillo, then it'd be 11 hr, 47 RBI. Am I starting to make sense here?

I know what Hendry's thinking by this inactivity...he's thinking, "well, last year there were a lot of bargains later on, so I'll just wait things out instead of pre-emptively striking" The problem with that thinking is that other teams are NOT standing idle as they did last season, and he's running the risk of missing out on good talent if he continues waiting. Plus, there's no better way to stick it to the Cars than by landing Ankiel, just as they traded for DeRosa last year to stick it to us.

Yes, Ankiel will probably run $5 million/yr, and Lopez will be similar as well...but isn't that worth it? Judging by what Polanco, Scutaro, and Cora got already ($6 mm, $6.25 mm, and $2 mm respectively per season), it stands to reason that Lopez would get somewhere between $2mm and $6.25 mm, so that's how I came up with the $5mm figure. Cameron received $7.25 mm/yr and Glaus, while he's not an OF, he was also injured just like Ankiel, and produced in the past like Ankiel, and got $2 mm. So, if you average them together, you come up with an approximate figure of what Ankiel might get. In my estimation, both could sign between $4-5mm/yr each. That'd be reasonable for me.

Adding Sheets would be nice, but his rumored cost is prohibitive. If he'd sign for a $4 mm/yr deal with up to $4 mm in incentives based on wins, ERA, and games started, it'd be worth it, and you'd try to trim salary in other areas like trading Gorzelanny and Theriot, saving about $4-5 mm combined after arbitration. So, best case, you add $12 mm, minus the $5 mm for a total of $7 mm, which is about what we have left to spend anyhow, and worst case is you add $18 mm (if Sheets gets all incentives) and you can't trade Theriot or Gorzelanny, for a net increase of approximately $10 mm over original budget. If Sheets gets all incentives, then you know you're in contention, so wouldn't that be worth it?

I copied that article from waxpaperbeercup.

One little addition:
MLBTR is quoting Bruce Levine as stating the Cubs and Rockies have had talks RE: Spillbourghs.
OK. Take on the former Madison Mallard, he has played pretty well and appears to show the heart and hustle we are all over as Cub fans.

But, package whatever you need and get EY JR in this deal!

Funny thing is... it is a reported Cub rumor, so basically it has 0.00% validity wink wink nod nod.

Levine mentioned the Cubs interest in Contreras again ... and threw out Ryan Spilborghs as Cloy mentioned.

Spilborghs would replace Reed according to Levine.

http://espn.go.com/chicago/columns/blog/_/post/4776210/name/levine

You know, If JH actually signed one of the recommendations from this site...some of us would probably have a heart attack in excitement....he's 0 for however long.

Looks like Dero to the Giants according to mlb trade rumors...unconfirmede reports that he took a physical for the Gianrs today....2 years...6 mil per...
again, unconfirmed.

A few thoughts....

* 2009 will not go out with a bang, but a whimper ---TS Elliot

* Hendry would be a goof if he signs Contrearas. We already have a 5th man/long reliver in Silva.

* Ryan Spilborgs would be a nice pick up as a 4th outfielder.

*We still need a second baseman. Uggla or Orlando Hudson would be an upgrade over the Baker/Fontenot duo.

Aaron, I believe the Marlins are looking for 2 top prospects for Uggla...read that somewhere...combined with Uggla's 7 mil...
That makes Lopez or Hudson more attractive...IF, IF, IF...JH doesn't overpay in both $$$ and years.
(We only need a one year deal and possibly a club option for the second year on any of those guys.)

If they require more...than I;ll suffer with Fontenot and Baker...Thankyou.

I don't understand Hendry's constant
push for someone in the pen...if it's not a special arm...with the exception
of Grabow...we already have a lot of arms to compete...and the back end is ok
if Marmol and Guzman are healthy. Caridad looked great last year as did Gaub in AAA.

I would rather see Hendry resign Snyder and Deeds then Byrd for outfield depth...
or even try to get Pie back then sign Byrd....and if we need a vet CF...keep looking through midseason...

If the Rockies are asking a lot for Spilborgh...we'll never get EY Jr.
But the Rockies owe us big time for Marquis/Vizcaino last year.

It's way overdue time for a new GM.

Red Sox seem to want either Bay or Holliday so what if we took Ellsbury and Lowell they gave us some money and we ship some midlevel with them. They want to get rid of Lowell bad and Ellsbury is cheap enough yet to make up the difference they would have to pay.