One Cubs Rumor After the Other

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Seth Everett recently put baseball's off-season into perspective. During his show on XM Radio with Jim Bowden, the vocal Mr. Everett said, "Pennants are not won in December but there is pressure to win in December."

The Cubs still have holes to fill this winter. From the bullpen to a centerfielder to possibly a fourth outfielder and a middle infielder, Jim Hendry reportedly has several moves he would still like to make before pitchers and catchers report on February 15.

Here's the latest from the mill ... including updates on Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Contreras plus notes from an interview with Fernando Perez.

Chatting with Bruce Levine

Mr. Talkin' Baseball held his weekly chat on ESPN Chicago.com on Tuesday ... here are a few of the highlights from Bruce Levine:

  • Marlon Byrd, Scott Podsednik or Rick Ankiel will be playing centerfield for the Cubs in 2010. Levine pointed out each of the candidates have flaws but Rick Ankiel probably has the most upside. Ankiel is the youngest of the three, better defensively and could supply 25 home runs from the left side of the plate.
  • Levine thinks the Cubs have listened to offers for Carlos Zambrano. The problems with trading Zambrano include: a no trade clause, a lot of money still owed and he is coming off a down year.
  • The Cubs are concerned about the future health of Kiko Calero. They are interested in the reliever "but they also think he's a possible time bomb as far as re-injuring himself."
  • Jim Hendry has a limited budget to make improvements to the team. Hendry is negotiating two or three contracts and looking to make trades.
  • Hendry has only $6 or $7 million left in the budget for 2010.
  • Carlos Silva "can be a bullpen guy, he can be a starter, he can spend all year on the DL, but if he's not productive he won't be active. That you can count on."
  • Geovany Soto was embarrassed by his play last season.
  • Orlando Hudson is not on the Cubs' list.
  • The Cubs have continued their dialog with the Mets over Luis Castillo.
  • Jose Contreras could be the Cubs' fifth starter until Ted Lilly returns. The Cubs have spoken with Contreras' agent and he "may be a part-time substitute" for Lilly to begin the year. The Cubs also consider Contreras "a part-time bullpen pitcher."
  • Hendry has spoken to two or three teams about a trade for a reliever.
  • The Cubs are not interested in Octavio Dotel.
  • Levine hopes the Cubs will have someone other than Mike Fontenot as their starting second baseman in 2010.
  • Jeff Baker will receive playing time at second. Baker's primary job in 2010 will be as a backup at second and third ... as well as getting time in the outfield.
  • Reed Johnson's back is the reason the Cubs have not re-signed the fan favorite.
  • The Cubs are looking at Ryan Spilborghs as a replacement ... but Levine questioned if there is room in the Cubs' outfield.
  • Levine is expecting an announcement on Florida or Arizona by January. Levine has heard rumblings that the Cubs could remain in Arizona.
  • Josh Vitters will not be with the Cubs next year unless he is a September call-up. Levine mentioned the Cubs might move Vitters across the diamond to first base.
  • Brett Gardner is off the market.
  • Levine is concerned about the Cubs' rotation.

Jacoby Ellsbury

Bruce Levine shot down the rumor started by Phil Rogers over the weekend about Jacoby Ellsbury ... and how he thinks the Cubs should go about acquiring him.

Bruce Levine reported the rumored three-way trade that would net the Cubs Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholtz was shot down by his sources.

The Cubs and Red Sox have discussed players and other possible match-ups but not one that would send Andrew Cashner, Josh Vitters and a third minor leaguer to the Padres, Ellsbury and Buchholtz to the Cubs and Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox.

Beside the fact that the Padres are not looking to move Gonzalez, the three teams have not discussed the six player deal.

Jacoby Ellsbury would be a more than a welcome addition to the Cubs. With that said, why would the Red Sox want to trade one of the few legitimate leadoff hitters in the game that can steal bases and plays a stellar centerfield?

Fernando Perez on XM Radio

Fernando Perez joined Jeff Joyce and Jim Duquette on Tuesday during Baseball This Morning (XM Radio). Perez was very impressive and informative during his time on the all-baseball channel.

Fernando Perez grew up in New Jersey and attended Columbia University. Perez tries to spend his time in New York during the off-season.

Perez said he has not begun hitting yet this winter due to the shoulder surgery he had in October. He indicated that he is feeling great and his shoulder is doing better than his wrist. Perez described the injury to his wrist (he broke it diving for a ball during spring training last year) much more traumatic than the surgery on his shoulder. Perez explained the shoulder surgery was more of a clean out than anything ... and he stressed it is feeling fine.

Jim Duquette asked Perez about the moves the Rays have made this winter ... especially the addition of Rafael Soriano. Perez admitted he is very excited about Soriano possibly being the team's closer.

The interview switched back to Perez's wrist injury at that point.

Perez went into a little more detail about the rehab on his wrist. He said it usually takes about a year to get all of the range of motion back in a wrist. Perez mentioned the Rays have been worried about his wrist more than his shoulder. He is doing as much rehab on his wrist as his shoulder right now.

Jim Duquette asked Perez about the rumors that surfaced recently about him (Fernando Perez entered the Cubs rumor mill courtesy of Phil Rogers last weekend). Perez said he doesn't follow all of the rumors ... but his friends and family do. That's how he finds out what may or may not be going on.

Perez said he loves where he is at right now and doesn't want to go anywhere. He admitted that typically when a trade happens it is usually for the better.

Jeff Joyce mentioned all of the outfield depth in the Rays organization. Perez said he would like to play everyday but realizes that would be a luxury. He said it is important for him to be in a position to win day in and day out ... and no one wants to be traded to an organization that might be out of the race by August.

Perez realizes that his talents make him a pretty attractive role/bench player because of what he can offer late in a game. He said the most important thing for any player is when they receive the opportunity to play to make the most of it.

After discussing the Rays outstanding pitching prospects, the interview ended with a discussion on Perez's Jersey background and the "Jersey Shore".

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Well, that's the latest ... and I am sticking to it!

  • D

    Yesterday (or the day before I'm not sure) I said I would never trade Vitters (or Castro) and that I highly dobut the Ellsbury thing would happen. However, if that three way trade was to work out I would be ecstatic, giving two guys who can be good in the future, for two guys who have had proven success and are still young. The Red Sox and Padres would benefit as well too I believe. Also with the fact that Vitters is going to "most likely" be a first baseman, I don't see the point of holding on to him as a prized prospect with how they just stick great hitters there now a days... Anyways one last thought is I'm not sure which Lopez everyone keeps refering too but if it's Jose of the Mariners I would love to see that happen as well!



    Later Cubs fans.

  • Nate Braxton-Coley

    I think they are referring to Felipe Lopez.

  • ripsnorter

    Speaking of bad baseball GM's:

    The Mets Minaya just signed Jason Bay for $66.5 million dollar bills. But Minaya had previously dealt Bay away for Lou Collier. And previous to that, the Mets had dealt him away for Steve Reed (Reed pitched 22 innings for the Mets in 2002).



    That guy must be related to Ed Lynch. I think the best thing that happened to the Cubs 2009 Off Season thus far is Ed Lynch FINALLY left the Cubs. I thought he'd never leave.



    Now JHendry, don't sign Minaya when he gets fired for incompetence.

  • daverj

    Though the "best" Minaya deal of all time is the one where he dealt Bartolo Colon for Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore.

  • Cubsklm

    All 2009 free agent acquisition sent packing. And 2010 additions of Carlos Silva and possibly Jose Contreras, I don't see how Cubfans everywhere aren't overflowing with excitement. I heard Mesa has had a change of heart and demand the Cubs move to Naples because JH is stinking up the valley.

  • Nate Braxton-Coley

    I can't understand why Hudson isn't being considered. Can lead off, plays solid 2B plus a great character guy. When Castro comes up you have three middle infield guys who you can rotate around as so none wear out by the end of the season. With so many day games having three solid guys makes sense. Though I love Fontenot, if there are/were payroll concerns, why was he tendered especially with the glut of 2B guys out there. He could have always been resigned after being non-tendered.



    None of the CF guys excite me. Pods just won't get it done on a day in and day out basis. Byrd is just another guy. Ankiel could bat 5th or 6th with LH pop. But to me he makes sense with Hudson in the fold.



    Extra OF guys. No one has talked much about Randy Winn. He is athletic, switch hitter, can play all three OF positions. Yes he is aging, and wants to play everyday, but with the OF situtation here he will get a lot of playing time.



    Ryan Church and Austin Kearns are guys that JH has always liked. But neither can really play CF, but might make some sense.



    Rotation and bullpen need help as well which has been well documented.

  • SuzyS

    - A lot of good points today



    David F. you're right about prospect success rates...only the best will fully succeed...but the others can make valuable contributions along the way...

    ala Matt Murton (now in Japan).





    I would hope that the Cubs have learned their lesson re overpaid/long-term contracts with no-trade clauses...(with no trade clauses).



    Indeed, With the exception of the Yankees, I believe baseball in general

    is reassessing that practice and getting a little wiser.



    A few years ago...teams would have been all over Jason Bay at 18 million for 6-8 years....Instead he got 4yrs with a club option for the 5th.



    There's too many bad contracts out there.



    I do belive the Cubs business model is changing from the last several years of Tribune stewardship....but it is too early for us to see it yet.

  • daverj

    SuzyS,



    In response to your earlier post, yes, there are good women in my background. There are likely many qualified GM candidates of both genders, but since you asked for a female suggestion, how about Kim Ng? ... a local University of Chicago product and current assistant GM of the Dodgers.





    Woody34,



    I disagree. I don't think it's safe to assume that Cashner, Castro and Vitters will all make contributions to the Cubs in 2010. In fact, while it's possible, I think it's extremely unlikely. Many of our top prospects won't pan out at all ... and even the ones that do pan out, won't help for a couple years. When was the last time, the Cubs had all three of their top prospects going into the season make major league contributions? The closest I can think of is '89 with Walton, Smith and Girardi.

  • SuzyS

    Ng might be worth a shot if Ricketts is

    forward thinking enough...She might have already been a GM by now if she weren't a woman...Hard to tell...there's only so many GM spots available.



    David, the other side of the coin is Lou

    in his final year....He held out against giving Fox a shot for the longest time.



    Right now, I'd say he'd be resistant to

    Rookies unless absolutely necessary.



    With the hype Castro has received...if he is healthy and productive at all...I think we can bank on seeing him sometime this season.



    With Randy Bush as a huge supporter...if Thomas Diamond shows anything...I expect he'll be up at some point.



    I don't see Vitters anywhere close to Wrigley this year...but Cashner has a solid chance to nake his debut...at least by September.

  • MEHATEHENDRY

    Seriously, the Rickets above hendry, may need to consider blowing this thing up in June or July. Rick Ankiel, Jose Contreras, give me a break. We have a lot of holes and no money and would be foolish to trade any top prospects in already thin system.



    Zambrano, Dlee, Lilly, have some value and could return some decent prospects or ML ready players.



    Also, if we save some money this year, maybe we can increase payroll in 2011 or 2012?



    Sometimes you gotta take your lumps for a year or 2 to get back. its been done before.



    I would feel bad for Lou, as he is not interested in rebuilding, but sometimes you gotta start over.

  • diehardcubfan

    Personally, I just wish the Ricketts would just say damn the money and go for broke. It is either all or nothing.



    After following the Cubs for 35 years I have lost the patience to watch them rebuild again.



    Would I like them to have long term success, YES but I would take a WS title first.

  • cubs1967

    AMEN!

    I'M GONNA PUT THIS ALL IN CAPS SO SOMEBODY AT RICKETTS TOWER READS IT:

    101 YRS AND COUNTING, THERE IS NO GRACE PERIOD......SPEND SOME DAMN MONEY AND LET'S WIN A WS........ALL THIS TALK ABOUT CASTRO, CASHNER, VITTERS.......U GUYS ACT LIKE WE HAVE ONE SOMETHING......THERE IS NO MORE GRACE PERIOD!...........EITHER WIN IT SOONER RATHER THAN LATER .........OR CUBS FANS SHOULD JUST BOYCOTT WRIGLEY AND LET;S GO BACK TO THE '70'S WHEN THEY WERE LUCKY TO DRAW 1.5M..........

  • diehardcubfan

    Ouch!! to going back to the 70s. I still remember my first game at Wrigley and watching Bill Madlock hit a homerun into the basket while he was still a Cub.



    Talk about some lean years and lack of talent. The Cubs though did have guys with heart like Steve Stone, Bill Bonham, the Reuschel brothers, Jerry Morales, Rick Monday, etc.



    That sure does bring back memories, both good and bad.

  • ripsnorter

    DieHard: I remember those days. Trading Madlock off for a couple of bent fenders off a 1958 Ford Fairlane was crazy. But then again, that's what Cubs' GM's do. Steve Ontiveras had one year and done; Bobby Murcer the same. What a horrible trade! Then they dealt Rick Rueshel away and he did well for the Yanks, Pirates and SF. Monday was a great CF; they then put him at 1B. This is Cubs' management!

  • SuzyS

    Ouch, Ouch, AND OUCH!!!

    The Rick Reuschel deal burned me for years....Much like the later Maddux loss....2 Cubs that should have always been Cubs. This is starting to get painful...like picking at infected scabs.

  • PaulS

    Few Thoughts.

    If Hendry only has 6 or 7 million available to him, then there is your answer on why he hasn't signed Ankiel or Lopez. I think Boras is their agent and he'll be looking at something like this for each of these players per year. Sounds crazy but that is how Boras works. When you hear him talk about Ankiel, it sound like he is talking about an All-Star CF'er. By all accounts, Holliday should be signed by the Cards already but he is still out there churning the waters to drive up the offer.

    Also, we can only hope that the interest in Contreras can only mean he has a different home for Silva. Maybe plays into the Castillo rumors.

    I personally want no part of Pods, I would rather go with Fuld until we see what the spring training roster cut downs produce. That was how we originally received Johnson.

  • diehardcubfan

    The Cubs still need to look at adding a legitimate leadoff hitter and if they sign Ankiel and bring in Castillo that will not fill the bill.



    The Cubs were last in the NL last year in SBs with only 56 and they showed much weakness in running the bases along with getting on base to begin with. They need someone at the top of the order that can steal a base and provide numerous RBI attempts for Lee and ARAM.



    This will be big in improving the Cubs run production along with a resurgence from the lower part of the order.

  • diehardcubfan

    In the end it looks like we will all be wrong about 2B. It seems JH has made up his mind about bringing in Castillo in a trade.



    Given the Mets signing of Bay it would seem logical the Mets will now be willing to trade Castillo in order to shed payroll if the Cubs are willing to cover at least half of the contract. His contract will be the primary sticking point given that Castillo is locked up through 2011 at roughly 6 mil a year. That will be more than Lopez or Hudson are likely to command. This on top of the fact that Castillo is 35.



    Given the Cubs are trying to spend less makes me wonder why the rumors keep surfacing?



    If the Cubs do trade for him I think Fotenot will be included in the deal and the Cubs will probably ask the Mets to cover some of the contract.



    Acquiring Castillo makes some sense as the Cubs could then let Castro develop and bring him up full time once Castillo's contract is up.

  • diehardcubfan

    Correction on age will be 35 in September. If the Cubs get Castillo I think they will keep him in the 2 hole were he is most comfortable. He was the one guy that was a thorn in the Cubs side in 2003 and I think JH likes his attitude and experience.

  • woody34

    I pumped my fist when reading that the Cubs are not looking at Orlando Hudson. Just a small little victory for the success of this offseason. I know there are a lot of Hudson supporters for this team, but I was hoping we would of had him last year. He is done, he should become a bench player at this point of his career to keep him fresh the entire season. The last thing the Cubs need to do is add aging players. Lopez is still fresh.



    Neil, am I mistaken but did Ankiel make it back into the rumors? Seemed for a little bit there that the rumors had knocked it down to Byrd or Pods will be the CF next year. Ankiel not only has made it back but with Levine's comments Ankiel has the most upside and appeal at this point. Ankiel will become a fan favorite in Chicago just like Edmonds when he signed. Rudy will have him clicking, and I actually think Jim Hendry might have the foresight to see this. What do you think?



    I have relegated to the fact that the future of the Chicago Cubs is in the hands of a hit or miss GM, who is absoultely desperate for a move to save his career. The future will not be decided this offseason, his future and the Cubs future will be decided at the trading deadline in July. If we are not just in it, but actually look like the 2008 team, Ricketts gives the ok to go all out and get what's needed to bring home a World Series.

    If we are not in it, the Cubs should go into Twins/Marlins mode. Sell off and get set for one of the great free agency offseasons in recent history.



    If the Cubs go into sell mode here's what they would have off the books for next offseason:

    Lee - $13 mil

    Lilly - 12 mil

    Ramirez - roughly 15 mil, plus remaining

    Zambrano - roughly 18 mil, plus remaining

    finding a taker looking for a year and a half contract of Fukudome - 13 mil

    Soto - should make what a million, but would net some great prospects

    Theriot/Fontenot - another 2 or 3 million, since Fontenot acquired Super 2

    Grabow - one and a half years of 7+ mil

    That's close to $75 million off the books. That's over half the payroll.



    Here's what we're left with:



    C Hill

    1B

    2B Baker

    SS

    3B

    LF Soriano

    CF

    RF



    SP Dempster

    SP Wells

    SP Silva

    SP Gorzelanny

    SP



    CL Marmol

    R Grabow

    R Guzman

    R Caridad/Stevens/Gaub etc.



    Go spend what it takes to get Mauer, Crawford and Lee/Webb. Bring up Castro, Vitters, Cashner, Carpenter, Jackson, possibly Lee, and one of your top prospects you bring in from midseason trading either 3b or 1b. Trade what you need to from all the midseason trades to get Josh Johnson. Here is potentially the roster for 2011:



    C Mauer, Castillo

    1B Vitters, or midseason acquired 1B

    2B Castro, Baker, Flaherty

    SS Lee/Castro

    3B Vitters or midseason acquired 3B

    LF Soriano

    CF Crawford

    RF Burke/Parker



    SP Lee/Webb

    SP Johnson

    SP Dempster

    SP Jackson

    SP Carpenter



    CL Marmol

    R Guzman

    R Cashner

    R Gaub

    R Stevens



    Thats a team I could get excited to watch grow around the nucleus of Mauer, Crawford, Lee/Webb - which would probably cost about 40 to 45 million to obtain. Still leaving the team payroll around 100 million. If Ricketts wants to maintain a top 5 payroll in the league, then you could fill in a rental of say Carlos Pena at first, and a Scott Downs or Huston Street a setup role, or a Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer for right field.





  • diehardcubfan

    You have some interesting ideas but there are two big issues.



    First I do not see Zambrano waiving his not trade clause, at least right now unless the Cubs are out of it and he can go to a contender. Like DLee, he has already been asked and said "NO".



    Also, ARAM is still under contract through at least 2012 though he can opt out at the end of the year. Given the question marks of Vitters as a major league 3B I do not think the Cubs are willing to let ARAM walk if he decides he once to renegotiate his contract.



    Also, a couple of years back JH was reported to have tried to trade for Crawford but those have been like many of the other rumors and never went any further. I do think that if Crawford is available that the Cubs might go after him but the problem then remains what do the Cubs do with Soriano? Also, Crawford will command a long term big contract given his age and statistics. I am not sure if Cubs management is willing to go down that road again.



    As for Mauer, he has made it clear he wants to stay in Minnesota and in the end I think the Twins will want to keep him. He is definitely a fan favorite and the heart of the franchise.

  • woody34

    Yes, Z has no trade clause, but his agent says right now he is not willing to waive it, but that could change next week. He sees that the Cubs are trading Lee and Lilly and possibly Ramirez and others, are you telling me that he won't want to waive it to go play in Boston, or New York, or Anaheim? The no-trade clause will be a nonissue at the deadline if the Cubs are not in it.



    Ramirez will be an interesting situation. Ricketts and Hendry need to sit down with him and have a talk man to man. There are two options.

    1. Explain to him the plans for the future and where he fits into them, and that there will indeed be changes, but for the better for the franchise.

    2. Ask him straight up if he plans on being a part of the future or does he want to explore options? If he wants to stay, great he is the best player on this club. If he wants to explore, then trade him to a Boston or whomever and get the value back in usable parts for the future.

  • daverj

    A couple other big issues ...



    While a couple of the Castro, Vitters, Cashner, Jackson, Carpenter, Burke, Lee group may turn into productive major leaguers if we are lucky, there is no way all (or even most) of them become solid major leaguers. Most propsects bust, and to assume that 7 of our top 10 will be contributors isn't reality. Look at what happened to our super prospect group from 2002 when the Cubs system was one of top systems in basball ... Prior, Juan Cruz, Choi, Kelton, Bobby Hill, Zambrano, Nic Jackson, Ben Christensen, Luis Montenez. And the 2002 group had much more talent and potential at the time then the current crop...



    Lee, Crawford, Webb, and Mauer will command long contracts at $18+ million per year. It's possible (but unlikely) that the Cubs get involved in the bidding for one of them ... but the Cubs can't afford 2, let alone 3. And then what happens when the Cubs sign one of those guys to an 7 year deal (with a no trade clause) at $18+ million per year (which very well could be necessary to sign a player of that caliber) and the player's contributions lessen after a few season ... the same fans who desperately wanted the signing will then berate the Cubs GM (whoever he/she is at the time) for giving out too many years, too much money, and a no trade clause. For examples, see Soriano and Zambrano [most of the CCO posters praised the Soriano deal at the time (though Aaron was skeptical of the money and length of the contract) and were thrilled that JH did what it took to bring Soriano into the fold ... and almost all of the CCO was crying out for JH to do whatever was necessary to lock Zambrano up long term].

  • SuzyS

    David F...There must be a good woman in your background...or perhaps a houseful of daughters....exerpt quote from your post:



    "...the same fans that desperately wanted the signing will then berate

    the Cubs GM ( whoever HE/SHE is at the time)."



    I applaud your gender sensitive political correctness !!!



    Do you have any female candidates in mind?

  • woody34

    David,

    Yes asking for 7 out of 10 to be ready is asking alot. But we are safe to assume that at some point this year, Castro, Cashner, and Vitters should be up, and possibly Jackson and/or Carpenter.



    That's a good start, Castro will be in the everyday lineup by 2011 season. Vitter very well could be with the departure of either Ramirez or Lee or both. Cashner should be a contributor to the pen by this year. September callups by Carpenter and Jackson to see what they have will probably be in the works also. Asking for those five to contribute by 2011 is not out of the question.



    If Hendry makes those deals at the deadline and frees up over half the payroll, you are telling me that the Cubs can not afford three major offseason acquistions. Even at 20 million a season on three to five year stints could be afforded with money to spare. Crawford will be around 10 or 11 million per. Mauer will be in the 15 to 20 range per. Lee will be looking for CC money, but Webb could be had for cheaper after one year removed from major injury. Even if you need to find a couple of other players to fill in for a year or two until the kids are ready - the money will be there to do it.



    Ricketts has a vision of the minor league system feeding the major league club with the talent necessary to continue a winning club for extended periods of time. Yes, that means building up the system, but that also means being able to maintain a talented core of veterans to help ease the kids into the majors.



    To succeed as a playoff caliber team, a team needs two aces nowadays. Here are examples:

    2001 DBacks - Johnson and Schilling

    2003 Cubs - Prior and Wood

    2004 Red Sox - Beckett and Schilling

    2005 Astros - Clemens and Oswalt

    Those are a some just to name a few.



    Trading for Josh Johnson and signing a Webb or Lee will go a long way to the success of the future of the Cubs rotation.

  • ripsnorter

    You forget Silva and his huge contract. You left him off the trade list (impossible to trade! How does JHendry do it???) and his a wasted roster spot to keep. But he's all yours to keep! lol

  • woody34

    His money is still included in the payroll, no doubt about that, but he will be outrighted to AAA at some point, and he will have to go, because he won't refuse assignment with how much money he is making. But he will not be on the major league roster very long.

  • ripsnorter

    Agree. Silva gone by May 15.

  • diehardcubfan

    Agree that Silva might be gone by May 15 but that may depend on how fast Lilly is back in the rotation and how well Wells does the second time around along with whoever fills the back end of the rotation.



    The fact is that the number 5 spot is a void right now with it up for grabs. Depending on if the Cubs sign a free agent (Contreras) or make a trade the number 5 starter will likely be the pithcer who has the best spring. This list includes Samardzija, Gorzelany, Marshall and likely others from the farm system.



    It then remains very possible by default and how Silva pitches that he may end up the number 5 guy. You never know, Larry might just be able to get him to keep his run total down. The good thing about Silva is that he does eat up innings and given the current state of the Cubs pen and their soft schedule the first month and a half of the year might just be enough to land him a permanent job.

  • John_CC

    Carlos Silva has thrown 180 innings in the last 2 years. He's "eaten" 200 innings in a season twice in his career.



    At best, he is a potential (or former) inning eater.



    This is like FOX News, call it a Death Panel enough times and then it IS a Death Panel.

  • diehardcubfan

    It seems everyone is not givning Silva a fair shake.



    Yes, I know that Silva has only thrown 200 innings twice and only 183 innings the last two years but like many pitchers it was because he was injured. If you look at Silva's stats from 2004-2007 he threw at least 180 plus innings and made at least 27 starts per year. He also won 57 games and only had one real bad year in 2006 with the ERA and we have to remember he played in the American league on a weak ball club.



    His stats compare very favorably with the last four years of Ted Lilly with Lilly registering 61 wins since 2006, a low of 27 starts and comparable numbers in innings thrown.



    Silva is also only going to be 31 in April, 3 years younger than Lilly so if Silva can overcome injury problems, and I think he can, he could be a solid contributor and better than many of the options we have now.



    This might actually be a case were JH might have actually gotten something in return in a real bad trade situation.

  • ripsnorter

    If you go to this link, and scroll down the page, you can see pitchers that are comparable to Carlos Silva:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/silvaca01.shtml?redir



    Randy Lerch from the '70's and '80's.

    Bonderman of the tigers is the closest current pitcher, followed by Josh Fogggggggggggggggggggggggg.



    Now if you like those guys, you'll like Silva. I don't want any of those three on my team. Fogggggggggggg had a 7.58 ERA in 2008. Bonderman had a 8.71 ERA last year (part year)and a 5.01 his last full year in 2007.



    I think it is unrealistic to expect a 12-6 record outta Silva (as someone suggested). THe guy has the same injury as Mark Prior. That's a difficult injury to overcome.

  • diehardcubfan

    Actually all my statistical information that I quoted came from baseball reference.com. As far as Silva goes now I think it boils down to personal preference. Now yes Silva is similar to Randy Lerch, Fogg and Bonderman.



    I got to watch Randy Lerch pitch for Philadelphia against the Cubs a couple of times before he broke his wrist in 1979 and he was a tough competitor. He also had a good year in 1979 overall though it was not reflected in the win totals.



    I am not expecting Silva to be a savior just a guy who can get ground ball outs in Wrigley Field with his sinker ball. The Cubs already have a group of top 3 starters. They just need someone to get outs and Silva can do that.



    Also, if you look at the similar pitchers at 30 lists on baseball reference.com Jon Lieber (former Cub and 20 game winner) and Carl Pavano (former WS champ and 18 game winner) are both on it.



    Depending on how Silva is recovering from injury there always remains the possiblity he could have a career year and one is all the Cubs need, ie Jon Lieber in 2001.

  • SuzyS

    Rip...I don't think anyone is expecting much out of Silva...hoping maybe, but not banking on....The Cubs solved the personality problem...but nothing else.

  • ripsnorter

    Suzy,

    I'm just having fun with the DieHardCubFan. I'm not expecting anything from Silva; DieHard expects some "innings eating." Hey, he could be right. But in the meantime I'm going to enjoy giving the DieHard a hard time because--it's just too much fun.

  • ripsnorter

    What I like about Silva is that he "eats innings" with a 6.84 ERA. Now that is a very valuable asset, don't you agree?



    Whenever a pitcher is called an "innings eater," it means he's a lousy pitcher. Last guy they acquired like that was no other that the highly esteemed, one-year-and-released-and-nobody-picked-him-up AL NIPPER (hold the fanfare down, please).



    Innings eater! lol

  • diehardcubfan

    Look at his career statistics. He has a 4.72 ERA over eight seasons and for the American League that is not bad. Yes, he has struggled the past two years but again injuries affected his performance.



    I think Larry can help him get his confidence up and get his arm strong again along with consistenly throwing strikes. We also got to remember that he is a sinker ball pitcher which plays well into Wrigley.



    Also, he does not walk anyone with only 36 BB over 200 innings in 2007 and only 32 over 153 innings in 2008 and 32 BB in 180 innings in 2006. That is better than Ted Lilly over the past four years and better than Big Z or Dempster over the past two. Also Silva does not give up that many home runs.

  • John_CC

    Not walking guys is great...unless it is because you are getting hit so damn hard that there's no reason for a hitter to take a walk.



    A 162 game avg of 170 innings and just 32 walks would very impressive, except that the WHIP is 1.4, which reveals that he gets hit, a lot.



    And for the low HR argument I think you need to recheck that. Again his avg 169 innings/season he gives up 21 HR. That was in the Metrodome, in 2006 he served up 38 HR in 180 innings. That isnt good in my book. Again, in the Metrodome. It's gonna be ugly in Wrigley.

  • diehardcubfan

    Ok, we can go on and on about having Silva on the team. I will point out one more thing and then I am going to drop this. I do not think either one of us is going to change the others opinion.



    Yes, Silva did give up 38 HRs in 2006 but that was also the year his ERA was the highest at 5.94. If you look at his 2007 states he dramtically improved. He had only 20 BB in 200 innings with an ERA of only 4.19 and a WHIP of 1.31. Sinkerballers will have a tendency of having higher WHIPs since they do not strike out a lot of batters and hitters make more contact and get more hits but also WHIPs do not translate automatically into runs. Also, Silva's WHIP has stayed below the poor threshold throughout his career which is considered 1.75 or higher. I would rate him about average.



    That has a tendency to happen with sinkerball pitchers.

  • John_CC

    ok...my last point(s): calling a 1.75 WHIP "poor" is very generous, horrendous comes to my mind. 6 innings and 3 ER is also considered "quality" by some standards, not mine.



    And lastly, looking at favorable stats from 2 and 3 years ago while over looking 2 years of bad play doesn't work for me either. I don't hear a lot of praise for Soriano lately because he was a 40/40 guy in 2006.



    OK, consider it dropped, diehard, and thanks for the debate, that's why we're here!

  • diehardcubfan

    It was very entertaining and both of us made a lot of good points. If we did not sway anyone's opinion on Silva then no one was paying any attention.



    Don't worry I will be looking for the next opportunity to go on and on and on.



    Take care and Happy New Year.



    GO CUBS!!!!

  • Steve Stoned

    If we must have one of those three, try to sign Ankiel. It will probably still cost too much, but if the committment is smaller, then it's a good idea. Only problem is Ankiel strikes out a lot and is not a lead off hitter.



    Ellsbury is a pipe dream, but perhaps we can take Cameron off their hands if they changed their mind there and at the same time help the Bosox sign Holliday away from our rivals.



    No problem with all of the other Non-Moves since I'd rather Hendry & his staff take their time and due dilligence to really investigate the players they are acquiring. It's too bad they didn't do enough of that last year. Tho, still, the Bradley signing wouldn't have been 100% atrocious if they would have only signed him to one year. Jim allowed himself to be hornswoggled into multiple years with the ticking time bomb. A little too easily, if I might add.



    Why might I ask are we not interested in Orlando Hudson & Octavio Dotel? O-Dawg would seem to lighten up a clubhouse immediately & Dotel can still be very nasty at times.

  • fryegye

    JimC...that's two nights in a row (I know since I was up counting).



    I like Ankiel as well. I have a feeling he would be productive in Chicago. I'd also prefer Lopez over Castillo,if given a choice.



    SuzyS - I don't post often but I read all the time. I have to say I love your comments (yeah, I like Aaron, too). They add so much to Neil's great site.



    Happy New Year a little early.

  • SuzyS

    Fryegye,



    Thanks for the kind words...and a Happy, Healthy and prosperous New Year back at you.



    Given the choices, I'm in the same boat as you. (But I would indeed like to expand the choices.) :)

  • SuzyS

    JimC...another insomniac!



    Re Perez and his wrist...it took DLee

    a full 2 years to get his swing back to

    normal.



    Good to hear JH is working on something.

    Not that I doubt his work ethic...(one thing that has never been questioned

    about him)...but it's been so quiet.

  • Jim C (Tinley Park, IL)

    I prefer Ankiel over Byrd and Podsednik.

  • Dan G.

    Ankiel is the best of a bad lot. I hope they wait him out and just give him 1 year. I don't think there is that much of a market for him. Could be like Bobby Abreu last year. No more strangling multi-year deals if the new ownership is serious about developing from within.

  • diehardcubfan

    I am warming up more and more to the idea of bringing in Ankiel but I still remain skeptical of his abilities more so than Byrd.

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