The countdown to the winter meetings has begun ... and the Cubs made a few waves on Tuesday. Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg and Reed Johnson were not offered salary arbitration and will likely be with another team in 2010. The Cubs could re-sign Reed Johnson but that depends on the moves they are able to make after unloading Milton Bradley.
Some think the upcoming winter meetings will be filled with signings and trades ... will Jim Hendry and company be able to accomplish their biggest goal of the off-season and improve the 2010 squad at the same time? Here's the latest from the mill ...
Chatting with Bruce Levine
The always informative Bruce Levine conducted his weekly chat on Tuesday afternoon ... here are a few of the highlights:
- According to Bruce Levine, there "is zero chance" that Milton Bradley will be with the Cubs next season.
- Jim Hendry is attempting to make a deal with the Rays or Mets ... or a combination of the two for Milton Bradley. (Note: could this be the Burrell to the Mets, Castillo to the Cubs connection?)
- There is no money for the Cubs to offer free-agent Chone Figgins
- Curtis Granderson will cost the Cubs at least two solid young players
- Andrew Cashner is not far away from helping the Cubs (Note: some think Cashner could be with the big league team as early as 2010) and James Russell figures in the Cubs plans after the 2010 season.
- Levine does not see how Mark DeRosa could help the 2010 Chicago Cubs.
- The Cubs need to address their bench for next season
- On Orlando Hudson or Orlando Cabrera ... "Right now Hendry could discuss parameters of those types of signings but he really doesn't have the money to make that happen at this point."
- Derrek Lee said he would not waive his no-trade clause last November ... Levine mentioned once again a likely scenario for Lee is to sign a one-year extension "with an option some time before the end of spring training."
- On Ben Sheets ... "Sheets probably would be somebody they would look at due to the fact they have payroll constraints." The Cubs like Sheets' "competitive nature" but his injury history is questionable ... or as Levine called it "a giant red flag."
- Rick Ankiel would be a "nice platoon-type player" for the Cubs. No one knows if Ankiel can be a productive, everyday player.
- On the Cubs payroll for 2010 ... "Due to the fact that veteran player salaries continue to escalate, the payroll is already at $140 million. Mr. Ricketts has decided not to spend any more money than that at this point. Until Bradley is traded, there is no real reason to ask the owner for any more money. After that, I'm sure the Cubs GM will feel like he has more of an organized look at what he would like to do for next season."
Rich Harden
The Cubs raised a lot of eyebrows on Tuesday when they did not offer salary arbitration to Rich Harden. Harden is a Type-B free agent and the Cubs would have received a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) if Harden signed with another team.
The Cubs reportedly had a chance to deal Harden to the Twins last August. Minnesota claimed Harden off waivers but the Cubs pulled them back because they felt the season was not over yet. According to Bruce Miles, the Cubs would not have received much in return from the Twins ... and they were not ready to pack-it in for the season when they had a chance to deal him to Minnesota.
Many feel Harden would have earned around $10 million in salary arbitration for the 2010 season ... a risk the Cubs could not take on basically a five-inning pitcher at this point. The speculation is there could be "trouble ahead" for Rich Harden and the Cubs did not want to take the chance with that much money.
Bruce Levine pointed out $10 million is a lot to pay for one-year to a pitcher with a tremendous arm and shoulder issues.
According to a report from the Sun-Times, it is a matter of when, not if, when Harden's troublesome shoulder blows out.
Milton Bradley
According to a report from Bruce Miles, "things could be heating up ever so slightly" on Milton Bradley. Miles is not expecting Bradley to be traded before the beginning of the winter meetings on Monday ... but maybe at the winter meetings.
According to a report from the Daily Herald, "there appears to be some optimism a deal could get done - perhaps with Texas or Tampa Bay - at the meetings." Once Bradley is traded, the Cubs can turn their attention to either Marlon Byrd or Mike Cameron for centerfield according to the Daily Herald.
From the Hot Stove
- A scout told Buster Olney that Mike Cameron "remains one to the game's better centerfielders." According to a report from Buster Olney (in his blog), Cameron can still cover a lot of ground and can still play the position.
- According to a report from ESPN, the Cubs may decide to look at Vicente Padilla or Jarrod Washburn as more reliable starting pitching options to Rich Harden
- Kevin Gregg has tons of suitors? ESPN raised the question ...
Florida or Bust?
Tom Ricketts and Crane Kenney were in Tallahassee on Tuesday. Mr. Ricketts and Mr. Kenney met with Florida Governor Charlie Crist and other state officials about relocating the Cubs to Florida.
Dusty Baker
Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times sent the CCO an email about a link to an excerpt from a book he has coming out next month. "Evaluating Baseball's Managers" is the name of the book and the excerpt is about Dusty Baker.
Click Here for the Excerpt: "Evaluating Baseball's Managers, 1876-2008" Dusty Baker
This is an excellent look at Dusty Baker and well worth the time.
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Well, that's the latest ... and I'm sticking to it!
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Vicente Padilla or Jarrod Washburn are guys kidding me.Reed Johnson can be replaced by Jake Fox. Sean Marshall or the Shark can not replace Rich Harden. I see this team as a total disaster again in 2010.
How can Fox replace Johnson? Do you think Fox can play centerfield?
I don't see how the Ricketts family would not be impressed by the Governor of Florida making a personal pitch to get the team there. I think it's a done deal and as a South Floridian, I say great!
Ricketts is impressed by dollar bills. And I don't know how many the governor waved in front of him.
The article on Dusty was pretty good, except I disagree with the statement that Dusty isn't as bad a manager as he appeared to be in Chicago. The Reds could have finished higher that the Cubs if they had a manager in 2009! lol
Dusty appeared to be a better manager in SF because he had a 'roid filled star hitting a HR every fifth AB, and drawing a walk every third AB. You can look pretty good with that kind of help.
there is no way fox can replace reed johnson. reed is an above average fielder with a great attitude and clubhouse presence. by all reports, fox is a below average fielder and a below average attutude to boot. i am not saying resign reed, but i am saying fox is no reed johnson.
I agree: Reed Johnson can catch the ball. He made several great plays last year. He can run some, something Fox, the former catcher, cannot do.
Wagner to the Braves for $7: what the Cubs paid Greggggggg last year.
Reed Johnson is a great ball player and has the attitude we need. But there is $ issues and his injuries. Jake Fox IS a hitter, no question about it. He played 3B,1B LF, and he was recruited as a catcher. Everyone always "dogs" the guy about his defense. Give the guy a break, I'm sure if he lands 1 spot, he'll learn to play it. He's a MLB player! There have been some idiotic plays out if LF by Soriano....oh yeah, he used to be a 2nd.
i think reed is risky. i think fox could be an ok left fielder. unfort we already have a left fielder. we desp need a cf in order to move the fuk over to right where he is at his best. fox can not play everyday rf at wrigley. it is arguably one of if not the hardest of position in the bigs. if we could rid ourselves of the albatross that is sori's contract, then yeah fox could play lf. but we all know that is not happening, so fox is stuck as a bench player right now or trade bait....
How does Kevin Gregg have lots of suitors??? Are we the only ones that noticed that his 95 MPH straight as a laser fastball, ineffective breaking ball, and the uncanny ability to look like a little league coach waving the ball in the air before it is pitched (0 deception)Sucks??? Or maybe it is his propensity to give up game tying and winning HR's, whoever wants to pay that go for it. Milwaukee needs pitching Please sign there! Ahhhh who cares as long as he is not in Cubby Blue I do not care... Good Riddance!
I am liking the idea of Luis Castillo as the days go by. Partially becaue we would be rid of Bradley, Partially because we would not have Burrell, But mostly because he fills some needs.
Liking the idea of Ben Sheets. He would adequately replace Harden, Both with production and injury fears, and should probably make much less than Harden.
Oh well, only a few more days to wait until some real news starts rolling in.
If the Cubs can trade for Castillo to play second and Granderson for center, I would be content with the offseason
while the idea is good in theory, essentially what we'd be acquiring is an aging 2B that is coming off a very good year in which he hit .302 with a .387 OBP, but he had just 12 doubles, 3 triples, 1 hr, and 40 RBI and 20 SB.
For comparison, Theriot had:
.284 avg, .343 OBP, 20 doubles, 5 triples, 7 hr, and 54 RBI and 21 SB
In his career year in 2008, he had:
.307 avg, .387 OBP, 19 doubles, 4 triples, 1 hr, 38 RBI, and 21 SB.
As he tried to add more power, his avg and OBP went down considerably, and he had almost double the K's he had the prior season.
My point is this, Castillo will earn $6 million next year and will be 34 yrs old, not to mention he still would have an additional year of $6 million for 2011. Theriot will probably earn somewhere between $800k and $1.5 million next year through arbitration and will be 30 yrs old.
He's already lost his range at SS, but he still can play there. Castillo, on the other hand, has NEVER played SS. So, if you had your choice, between a guy with similar stats, similar speed, younger, more versatile (has played 2B, SS, and CF at the MLB level), and earns 5-6 times LESS than the other guy, who are you choosing?
Additionally, since we have Castro as the heir apparent at SS knocking at the door, PLUS Miles, Fontenot, and Baker on the roster, I just don't see how adding Castillo makes sense at all. Yes, he'd provide a switch-hitting bat, and has a pretty consistent track record, where you can expect about a .290-.300 avg, 1 hr, 40 RBI, and about 20 doubles and 20 SB...but when you have a LOT of cheaper options on your team that can either out-produce him, or have equal production, then why on earth would you go after him?!?
Even though I think Granderson is over-rated, overpaid, and would cost more in terms of $$ and prospects than Castillo would in a straight up swap of Burrell after we got him for Bradley, he makes a LOT more sense than Castillo, because we have a gaping hole in CF right now where our only internal options are Fuld and Adduci, both of whom are NOT power/RBI threats, nor have either played much at the MLB level (Adduci not at all). With Fukudome's switch to RF, essentially our CF production went from about 10-12 hr, 50-60 RBI to about 1-5 hr, 20-30 RBI with Fuld and Adduci. Yes, we'd gain speed and defense, but that's pitiful production. Even though Granderson is essentially a lefty version of Soriano, he still gets double digit doubles, triples, hr, and a lot of RBI for a CF.
But, he'd likely cost one of Castro/Vitters, Cashner/Jay Jackson, and possibly Carpenter, or a low level prospect like Flaherty. For that cost, I'm passing, especially if it includes Vitters. I'm higher on Hak Ju Lee than I am Castro. I'm higher on Cashner than Jackson, and I'm VERY high on Flaherty. If those 3 are included, it's a HORRIBLE deal for the Cubs, because IMO, Granderson is worth 2 MLB players like Theriot/Fox (both of which have good value), and Marshall/Gorzelanny/Caridad, plus a guy like Carpenter/Gaub/Atkins/Dolis/Mateo.
He's going to be 29 years old, has an escalating salary, K's a TON, can't hit lefties, thus making him a platoon type player, almost like Fukudome has become, and his avg was dreadful last season in the .240's. This means he is NOT worth a handful of top prospects. The Tigers could use a catcher, DH-type, pitching, and even a middle infielder. I'd even include Soto to get a deal done, so long as it's Soto and a guy like Marshall and that's it.
I think that Hendry and everyone else that wants Castillo is thinking Addition by Subtraction. We lose the mess of Bradley and get a replacement for a positonal beed. While it might be preferable to move theriot to 2B and have Castro at SS, castro will only make the club if he blows away management in SPRING TRAINING, remember he is only goin gto be 20 this season and had only half a year in AA ball. He needs some more time, probably a year with a september call up this year before he is ready for to compete for the job.Thereis no need to rush him like other "top" prospects of the past. Plus Pinella didnt seem to like playing the young players like Fuld Colvin blaco and fox, he like vets and this is his last year. If they dont get a top of the order hitter CF 2B and maybe a vet SP life Wolf Washburn or Sheets then they will have litle depth if someone like ARAM goes down again. Fontenot Baker and Blanco are all decent young players but by no means are they straters for Playoff teams. They are back ups and if Aram goes down again then baker moves to 3rd full time with mike and blanco backing up SS and 2B. We can always sub blanco in at 2B late in the games for defensive purposes.
I'm holding off on opinions right now...
waiting to see what really does happen.
Indicators still are not positive.
Castillo would be a so so signing...but it would be hard to measure the value of Milton's departure until we see the exact deal.
Hendry's dinner with Milton last season
was like a free comp at a casino restaurant...after losing a few million.
I don't disagree with the Harden non-tender...someone should step up...Maybe Thomas Diamond. Perhaps Sheets.
I emailed another site dealing with minor leaguer's only...and they felt Snyder was gone and should reemerge with another team soon.
I hope not...I'd rather give him a shot
than someone like Mike Cameron...But then what do I know?...I'm just a fan.
Actually, when you think about it...No surprises so far.
Joel...re your post last night. Yes we might have enough to win a very...very
weak division...BUT who cares about that?
If the Cubs start showing signs that that is THE goal...then they've lost me forever. We can and should take a place with the big boys...Boston/NY/LA/Philly.
We should always look to see how we compare against the best...not be the best in our division.
SuzyS's point that "we can and should take a place with the big boys ... Boston/NY/LA/Philly" is true ... and the biggest thing that has held us back is the lack of minor league development of hitters. Take a look at some of the hitting talent developed by those teams:
Boston - Hanley Ramirez (traded for Beckett), Pedroia, Youklis, Ellbury, Freddy Sanchez (traded for Suppan)
NYY - Jeter, Cano, Posada, Soriano (traded for ARod), Nick Johnson (traded for Javy Vasquez)
LAD - Kemp, Loney, Martin, Andy LaRoche (traded for Manny), Victorino (lost in Rule 5 draft)
Philly - Howard, Utley, Rollins, Bourn (traded for Lidge), Burrell
And then consider that the best hitters developed by the Cubs' system are Soto, Theriot and Fox ... no comparison.
When a team like the Cubs doesn't have home grown talent to play (or trade for other talent), that team ends up overpaying for too many free agents. On average, most free agent deals end up looking like overpayments by the mid way through the contract. But that is ok if the rest of your team is filled with cheap home grown talent or quality players (who are not overpaid) acquired for home grown talent. The Phillies traded 4 prospects (who are far better than what the Cubs have to offer) for 1.5 years of a reasonably priced Cliff Lee. We aren't in position to make those deals. With little home grown talent, the Cubs are forced to continue to overpay to bring hitters to Wrigley and you can't fill every position with an overpaid free agent.
It all starts with the minor league system ... which hopefully is on the upswing. But, it's going to take a few years to get there. Until then, the realistic approach is to fill in with veteran players and hope you get lucky ...
Suzy,
How can you say who cares about winning the division!? This is the Chicago Cubs were talking about, a few years ago winning the division woulda been the greatest thing ever, and we all know that baseball is the one sport more than any other where a team can sneak into the playoffs and get 1-2 outstanding pitching performances and upset teams, it happens often.
Also my point was that the Cubs are clearly a team in transition right now with Castro, Vitters, Cashner, Jay/Brett Jackson, a year or two away and waiting out contracts on some older guys. And if we are good enough to maintain a solid enough team to compete and win a division while in transition then that would be impressive in itself (just think about how long certain teams can be in a transition phase, just look at the Chicago Bulls for example!)
I still think we can win this division and I DO care about that because the teams that win it all are the teams that CONSISTENTLY make the playoffs and finally (under Jim Hendry) we are becoming one of those teams. Especially if we can pick up Granderson and either Luis Castillo/Orlando Hudson/Orlando Cabrera and maybe a #4 type starter
Curious...are you related to Hendry in some manner?
With nothing to show but a couple weak division championships, Hendry has strangled this organization and compromised (year over year) our prospect base. He is truly one of the worst GM's in baseball.
I have looked at the top prospects and trades for a number of GM's. I really think it's unfair to call JH one of the worst GM's in baseball. If you look at 2009 in a vacuum, I'd agree, but over the full course of his tenure, his trades and free agent signings fall more toward the middle of the pack while his draft record is closer to the bottom. Overall, he's pretty average ... which should not be acceptable for the Cubs, but he's still not one of the worst GM's in baseball.
Sorry....but when you look at the full body of work, our GM has been operating with one of the top payrolls in all of baseball (and for the last couple years the 3rd largest), with nothing to show (sorry folks, division champs doesn't warrant parades down Michigan Avenue).
No other GM would have given Soriano an 8 year no-trade contract. No other GM would sign Bradley to a 2 year deal with a gimme attached for a third.
You're the one who ably and correctly summarized the track record of our system call-ups relative to the Yankees, RedSox, Phillies, etc. Well done.
Tell me, how in the world can this franchise have the 3rd highest payroll in baseball and (a) have no hope whatsoever for a successful 2010 campaign, and (b) be so strangled financially in making any constructive (not retread) moves.
No other GM would sign deals like Soriano's or Bradley's???
How about the GM's that signed the most recent deals for Vernon Wells, Barry Zito, Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand, Jason Schmidt and Juan Pierre, Eric Byrnes, Carlos Silva, Jose Guillen, Dontrelle Willis, Todd Helton, and Travis Hafner and if we go further back Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, Darren Dreifort, and Mo Vaughn ... the list of terrible free agent signings goes on and on and many are worse than Soriano/Bradley.
Furthermore, at the time of the signing the vast majority of Cubs fans loved the Soriano signing and praised JH for finally being proactive in the free agent market. Take a read through the old CCO links to the Soriano signing ...
David F, VERY GOOD POINT! You are right on with the idea of using some of our minor league talent for now and stop paying high priced talent(which usually fail to fill a position.
Bryan,
I'm not defending JH, but I'm not sure how you can say we have no chance for successful 2010. A lot of things went wrong last year and they still had 83 wins. Every year is different. And surely the cards will be weaker after they most likely lose Holliday. There's no one in that divsion that should scare you.
Great point David F.
For as much as we would love our GMs to be psychics...the bottom line is, they arent. I dunno about you guys but I was jumpin up and down when we signed Soriano (coming off a 40/40 year and having NEVER been on the DL) ya we overpaid but it was also known at the time that Hendry/McDonough were trying to send a message that we were not gonna be a small market team anymore (and the economy was much better)
Just remember we were, in my mind, one big injury to ARAM away from having a solid hold on first place earlier in the season and the Cards likely dont even make a deal for Holliday to run away with it when combined with our devastating rotation injuries.
A few breaks our way next season (injury-wise) and we are right back in 1st place with an assumed bounce back from a perennial allstar (Soriano) and the bounceback from the now humbled Soto who is training hard with Demp.
Joel not so fast our starting rotation right now is not better than the Cardinals right now. Zambrano is inconsistent, Dempster will be solid. Lily is injured, I expects Wells to get hit a and little more this year.Then do not even talk about Gorzelanny and the Shark which are two question marks. Our bullpen will be younger so we do not know how they are going to handle the pressure. However, I do expect the offense to be much better.
Guys...we can debate and debate (which is what's good about this site), but I still believe that most here on this CCO site would better manage $140m in payroll than Hendry has over the last several years.
But at this point, let's see what "bold" moves Hendry has up his sleeve during the upcoming meetings. Probably not much since our perennial allstar LF will certainly return to form next year.
True I agree that the Cards have a better frontend of the rotation but the backend is very suspect and Piniero is likely gone and if he stays will definitely see his numbers jump from a career year (like Kyle Lohse last year)
Also Carpenter is always an injury concern and one injury to him completely depletes their pitching. Wainwright was great last year but I suspect that last year was also a career type year for him.
The Cards bullpen would also be questionable, does anybody really have THAT much faith in Ryan Franklin (the definition of a career year) will repeat???
Is the talk about Big Z being onthe block? If so I dont think its so bad when your paying ace money to a #3 starter.