The GM Meetings begin on Monday in Chicago and runs through Wednesday (November 9 - 11), so the Hot Stove should have plenty of rumors to discuss over the next week. The general manager meetings are typically when trades for the winter are first discussed, but rarely made. With all of the action since the Yankees hoisted the trophy, no one is sure what will happen in Chicago this week.
The Ricketts family spent time last week while they were in Mesa for the organizational meetings touring various sites in the area. Many feel the Cubs would not leave Arizona and are using Florida as a negotiating ploy to gain more leverage to get what they need in, or near, the Mesa area. But not so fast ...
Beginning in 2010 both the Cactus League and the Grapefruit League will have 15 teams (the Reds are moving their spring training site from Florida to Goodyear and will share the new facilities with the Indians). At least one team a day will have to field a split squad in order to have enough competition in both areas. While several teams have made the move from Florida to Arizona, the groups in the Sunshine State would like to lure the Cubs to Florida.
As Bruce Levine pointed out, the Ricketts family has no ties to Arizona and had not been in the state before last week. The Cubs are wanting a state of the art facilities and looking to build a "Wrigley Field West" or a "Wrigley Field South."
Levine reported, "Part of the Cubs' overall plan is to build a Wrigley Field South or a Wrigley Field West, which would include the best of the atmosphere of Wrigleyville and a state-of-the-art baseball complex and an entertainment area. The vision of the Cubs is to have a walking community around the complex, where Cubs fans could get off the plane, drive to the complex and have all of the hotels, restaurants and bars accessible within a few blocks of the ballpark itself."
The Ricketts family would like to build a 15,000 - 18,000 seat complex, which would be the largest spring training facility in baseball. The Cubs have been training in the Phoenix area (Scottsdale and Mesa) since 1952 ... and are, by far, the biggest draw of any team in Arizona. The Cubs' facilities at HoHoKam and Fitch Park are behind the newer complexes in the area ... and the team is in need, and has the leverage, to demand updated facilities.
Travel time between facilities has been an obstacle in Florida. While the Red Sox and Twins would be within 15 minutes of the area in Naples that the Cubs are looking at, the other teams are anywhere between an hour and three hours away. For comparison, most of the teams in the Cactus League are within 30 minutes.
For those that thought the Cubs remaining in Arizona was a slam-dunk, think again. The Cubs have an opt-out in their contract that would allow them to relocate after 2011 ... and be in new facilities by 2012. The Cubs have a new owner "that could be thinking of making a new start and building a new tradition by moving spring training to Florida."
FloridaCubs.com (www.floridacubs.com)
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Ricketts is just using FL to put pressure on the AZ folks to build him a new stadium at their expense. The Cubs have a huge following in AZ. They won't be leaving.
I am pretty sure you could find as large a constituency of Cub fans on Florida's west coast as you could in the Phoenix area. I would love to see the Cubs form their regular season roster by pitting their players against teams like the Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees. Rather than teams like the White Sux, Mariners and Giants.
I am very interested to see what Jim Hendry have up his sleeve, because we have a lot holes to fill in a lot of positions.
This early offseason stuff is going to try my patience.
I'd really like to have the Bradley thing behind us...so we're not speculating on it forever.
On the other hand, there may be a ton
of discounted values out there in January.
So I'll try to curb my anticipation.
I can't imagine that the Cubs will do anything sigificant during these meeting ... though I hope I'm wrong. I expect that teams will be trying to steal Bradley knowing the Cubs are desperate ... so offers will likely consist of "we'll take Bradely off your hands for nothing so long as the Cubs pay almost all of his salary for '10 and '11".
Even though I can get the super cheap Allegiant tickets to Phoenix, I am pulling for Florida. I'd rather pay an extra $150 and be in FLA. Tempe is such a dump.
Hey jc 3-6-3, check some flights by Allegiant into St.Pete-Clearwater airport are under a $100 and you can drive about 2 to 2.15 hours to get to Naples from the airport.
excellent! didn't know Allegiant went there.
Ok, today's rumors are puzzling. The Cubs are reportedly interest in Holliday or Bay. Would Hendry consider another long term deal for an outfielder, further killing this teams future??? Holliday is seeking an Alfonso Soriano type deal.
On the Milton Bradley front, three more teams are reportedly interested in trading for him.
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/1872758,CST-SPT-cub09.article
If that is the case what is he waiting for?? Deal him already and end this headache.
I didn't get a chance to post thoughts on Soto yesterday, but here real quick is a thought. Do you remember who the catchers were in 2003 that season the Cubs were so close? Damien Miller and Paul Bako. Neither provide that offensive spark for the team, they improved our defense. If Soto were included in a package that netted us a Grady Sizemore or Carl Crawford type player - I am all for sending Soto on his way.
Let Koyie Hill start and share time with one of the kids, whether it be Castillo or Clevenger. I'm not sure if someone has the stats, but I think I recall that Hill was second in the league in caught stealing percentage last year. I am quite content with that, plus he is a switch hitter, and have to admit he looked better than fat boy doper all year long.
Woody34....
chill out, bro.
It's Nov 9th.
let me brreak something to you.....no matter what deals the cubs make, opening day is still 5 months away. That's a long, long, long time.
Any deal they make won't make opening day get here any faster, so just relax.
I would rather see them take their time and make the right deal, then do something stupid, just to do something.
Per MLBTradeRumors...
"Joe Strauss (St. Louis Dispatch) mentions that if the team believes it can retain Matt Holliday for $17MM annually, they're likely to be disappointed because Scott Boras "is believed committed to finding a far more lucrative deal for Holliday than the eight-year, $136 million deal left fielder Alfonso Soriano accepted to sign with the Chicago Cubs in November 2006."
And we know how that turned out!
Another bad contract in the making.
Holliday reportedly is not keen on playing in NY.
He did not do all that well on the West Coast....so if he wants that type of deal...he's going to have to dance with the devil and play in NY.
It will be interesting to watch...I don't anticipate the Cubs doing anything here...we're too locked up in the outfield positions as it is.
I look for Bay/Holliday to end up in
either NY team or Boston....But I don't
know if either will get eight years.
It's been a while since I majored in economics in college (so I very well could be missing something), but based solely on my recollection of economic theory, I think Boras' contacts should have no effect on ticket prices. With a fixed number of tickets, owners (who are profit maximizing) will determine their ticket prices independent of the cost of labor. Thus, if the owners think they can increase profits by raising ticket prices, then they will do so ... if they can't increase profits by raising ticket prices, then they won't raise them. Costs of doing business like salaries aren't relevant to that equation. That said, it's possible that baseball owners do not focus of profit maximization ... if that is the case then maybe they are determining ticket prices based on their costs (like player salaries) or other factors not related to profit maximization. It wouldn't make sense from a business perspective ... but baseball teams don't always run their teams like a business ...
couldn't agree with you more. Both Bay and Holliday will cost probably $14-18 million/year or more. It's a losing proposition. In today's world, unless you're hitting like Howard, Pujols, Teixeira, AROD, Dunn, Carlos Lee (sorry, had to throw that in), Ichiro (avg and hits only), etc., where outside of Ichiro, you can essentially bank on 30-40 hr, 100+ RBI each and every season. I cringe everytime I see guys like Jeter, Soriano, and soon to be Bay and Holliday, get huge contracts approaching $20 million/year, because you just know that the signing team will regret it later.
I also hate it when guys that have career years seem to gravitate toward Jim Hendry, and he almost always signs them. Burnitz, Lee, Soriano, Bradley, Miles, Dempster, etc., are just a few examples....I fear that he'll try to sign Chone Figgins, also coming off a career year to a deal worth $33-36 million over 3 years....it's just his style. I can't stand it, because not only does it continue to block our own prospects, but it severely limits maneuverability. Just think if Hendry went with Carlos Lee instead of Soriano. Or just think if he held his ground with Lee in 2005, and gave him a 3 year deal for less money, and told him to prove himself consistently...if he did that, we'd most likely have Teixeira.
I've always stated that we need quality over quantity, but Hendry continues to ignore the quality aspect. It will continue to get ugly until Hendry is ousted. I hope that someone in the organization gets in his ear about acquiring young guys like EY Jr., Upton, Moreland, etc. It's simply not smart to go after the likes of Aaron Miles anymore. For instance, wouldn't you guys have rather seen a Nate Spears or Tony Thomas, even prior to Miles' awful season? I know I would. I've been harping on this a long time about the Cubs. If it's between a Troy O'Leary and a Dave Kelton, or a Todd Hollandsworth and a Jason Dubois, or a Ron Coomer and a Julio Zuleta, or a Jason Marquis and a Sean Marshall or Gallagher, or a Rondell White and a young Corey Patterson or Roosevelt Brown, I'm taking the young guy every damn time....it's not even close. I'm not saying that Kelton, DuBois, Zuleta, Patterson, or Brown would've turned out well, or into stars with everyday playing time, but if it's between finding that out, and taking your lumps, or knowing what you're getting with a marginal veteran talent or an oft-injured veteran talent, then I think you have to take that shot, don't you?!?
For instance, if I was GM, I'd take an evaluation of our minor league system, and I'd ask myself who was playing far above their competition and age level, and I'd move them up accordingly. Guys like Hak Ju Lee, Ryan Flaherty, Kyler Burke, Starlin Castro, Jay Jackson, Chris Archer, and Chris Carpenter would either all start at AAA or AA this year with a NRI to spring training, and if they handled themselves well, then they'd be on the opening day roster.
My thoughts are, why in the hell would you ever hold a player back if he's performing at an optimum level? It's almost like a glass ceiling effect with the Cubs organization where prospects go to die. They're left thinking, "what the hell do I have to do to get moved up to AA...Moreover, what do I have to do to get a NRI to spring training."
Neil and I had the opportunity to meet Donald Veal a few years back at Spring Training in Mesa in the stands down the right field line and he was with a friend, and Neil asked him a couple questions, then I turned to him, and said, "Donnie, why aren't you out there with the team." (this was coming off a HUGE year for him too), and he goes, "I don't know what I have to do man..." and his buddy goes, "It's bullsh$t how they operate." (shook his head, then walked off)
I didn't really think anything of it at the time, nor have I thought much about it since, until now. I should've thought about this last year when we released/traded like all our top picks from the last 5 or so years, such as Pawelek, Harvey, Johnson, etc. Prior to that was the release of Dopirak.
Dopirak was an interesting case. He was added to the 40-man after a 39 hr, 120 RBI season at low-A. Then he suffered 2 injury plagued seasons, and was released. At 25 years old now, he's had 2 amazing seasons in a row after his release with the Blue Jays organization with:
29 hr, 101 RBI, .304 avg, .368 OBP
27 hr, 102 RBI, .317 avg, .371 OBP
Ryan Harvey also dealt with injuries and needed to be protected by the team last year. We lost him to the Rockies, and his first full season at AA at 24 years old, he hit:
23 hr, 82 RBI, .246 avg, .309 OBP, .519 SLG
So, the glass ceiling effect does not just apply to the big league team, but also the minor leagues and getting moved up. It's almost like the Cubs don't let ANY of their players take their lumps at advanced levels. If you don't succeed right away, you're bounced almost immediately back to purgatory to die as a prospect.
For a recent example of this, you need look no further than Jake Fox's unbelievable start at AAA, and the Cubs essentially waiting for him to start cooling off to bring him up, then when he got hot at the MLB level, they sat him almost immediately, and look what happened.
So, in an ideal world, here's what I do:
-NRI/protect from Rule 5 and invite to camp: Camp, Parker, Gaub, W. Castillo, Snyder, Dolis, Chirinos, Papelbon, Adduci, Castro, Flaherty, Burke, Jackson, Cashner, Lee, and Carpenter. I realize in the case of Lee, Castro, and Burke, they're really young, but if all you're going to do is sign a Mark Loretta, Orlando Cabrera, Johnny Damon, or Mike Cameron, guys that ALL are past their prime, and ALL that would be overpaid, high-priced veterans...then what's the harm in giving young guys a shot when you know the ultimate result from the veterans will not be that great, and you know it because the track record of Hendry says it won't be good?
If a majority of us are excited about the likes of Castro, Lee, Burke, Flaherty, LeMahieu, Brett Jackson, Jay Jackson, Cashner, etc., then why the hell not give these guys a chance in spring training?!?!?
I give you some concrete evidence of why it's wise to promote them:
(age when promoted included)
Votto-23
Dunn-21
Bruce-21
Utley-24
Rolllins-21
Jeter-21
AROD-18
Griffey Jr.-19
Sandberg-21
Teixeira-23
Carlos Lee-23
ARAM-20
Pujols-21
Carlos Beltran-21
Adam Lind-22
Aaron Hill-23
Eithier-24
Fielder-21
Braun-23
Crawford-20
Justin Upton-19
BJ Upton-19
Ryan Zimmerman-20
David Wright-21
Holliday-24
Longoria-22
Gordan Beckham-22
Manny Ramirez-21
Hanley Ramirez-21
Pedroia-22
Cano-22
Posada-23
While Soto saw his first action at 22, it wasn't until he turned 25 when he got more than 18 games of experience. Outside of Soto, Corey Patterson reached the bigs at 20, appearing in 11 games, then 59 the next year, then 153 at 22 years old. But we all know how that ended up turning out. It appears the Cubs refuse to let their players take their lumps at any level, resulting in either constant demotions to AAA from the MLB level, or not reaching upper levels at all.
And folks...that's just a sampling. If other teams are willing to give their young players a shot and they succeed, then why haven't we adopted this philosophy? In fact, you have to go all the way back to Mark Grace in 1988 at age 24 to find the last player in his early 20's that we gave a fair chance to. Prior to that was Dunston, and he was in at 22, but only had 74 games, then 150, then 95 (injured)..so technically, at 23 he was given a full shot.
So, I offer you yet another lineup for next season:
Lee/Castro-SS
Uggla-2B (trade)
Lee-1B
ARAM-3B
Granderson-CF (trade)
Soriano-LF
Burke-RF
W. Castillo-C
*Granderson is younger than most other CF options, and he has fairly good stats. Uggla hedges against any drop-off we might experience with Castro/Lee, Burke, or Castillo in our lineup. It doesn't appear that Castro is fazed one bit by top competition, so I doubt we'd have drop-off there, and you can basically bet the farm that Burke can come close to a .250+avg, 10+hr, 40+ RBI season, and play excellent defense, and it'd about equal Bradley's output. So, with Uggla's power/RBI threat, we'd come close to making up for our run deficiency from 2008-2009 just with him, then combine that with a full season of ARAM, and a full season of a healthy Soriano, and you can almost guarantee that we'd be a very good team, even with 3 rookies in the starting lineup. Granderson would represent a significant upgrade from what we had in CF last year, plus add speed, and Blalock on the bench hedges even more against possible injury to either ARAM or Lee. All told, we get rid of Soto, Theriot, Miles, Bradley, Colvin, Fuld, Fox, Hoffpauir, and Fontenot to make room for W. Castillo, Castro, Lee, Burke, Granderson, Uggla, Flaherty, and Blalock
bench: K Hill, Baker, Flaherty, Blalock, Castro/Lee
We'd most likely have to also give up Marshall, Gaub, Stevens, Coleman, and maybe Carpenter or Jackson to obtain Uggla and Granderson
Please, anyone, let me know if you agree...even to the slightest degree. The young talent available to this team from within is like I've never seen before. I almost 100% guarantee you that Vitters will be a colossal bust, but these other guys?....Absolutely NOT. I love the Castro/Lee option at SS and the bench. I love giving Burke a shot, because he needs to just do it. I love the versatility that Flaherty offers, and I love the defense that W. Castillo offers. Why wouldn't you do this?
I got the trades for you:
Theriot, Fox, and Gaub for Granderson
*works for Tigers b/c they'll likely lose Polanco, need relief help, and a DH type after likely losing Huff.
Colvin, Fontenot, Soto for Uggla
*works for Marlins, giving them replacement for Hermida, replacement for Uggla or at very least a back-up, and a starting catcher.
Aaron,
you are right when it comes to young hitters for the Cubs. However, they Cubs do give chances to young pitchers.
Zambrano was 20
Prior was 22
Woody was 20 or 21
more recently
Gallagher was 20 or 21
Marshall was 23
Marmol was 23
I love the idea of acquiring Granderson or Crawford. You listed your trade ideas to acquire Uggla and Granderson, but what do we get in return for Bradley???
it doesn't matter...if we get Castillo, then obviously we don't get Uggla, which I would absolutely hate, because Uggla's in his prime right now, and we need a hitter like that...if it's to the Rays for Burrell, then I think we need to expand that one to get BJ Upton...we'd then flip Burrell to another team. Aside from those 2 deals, I really can't see any other fits, even though there are rumors that there are indeed some other options available (i'm skeptical of that though)
Aaron, Crawford I think they will trade before Upton. Even though Jennings can play any of the OF spots, you would prefer Upton to Crawford??
I think if one of our priorities is speed, Crawford being the one of the best out there, plus he still hits for some power. I know hes a few years older than Upton, but IMO a little more proven. They are basically the same player.
1rst I'm in agreement that I'd rather see our own young homegrown talent take its lumps rather than watch an aging over the hill vet....Ricketts said the
Cubs will improve mainly through their minor league system...and I'm going to haf my hat on that...as a change in the
philosophy.
2nd) Forget the Castillo deal...it makes no sense for Toronto at all...their goal is to shed payroll for prospects/cheaper
major league talent...Bradley for
Overbay (in Toronto's eyes)...doesn't make sense. The Mets of course would love that deal.
From our standpoint...do we want an
aging Castillo for 2 years or Theriot at
second? Castillo at 35 is not my choice.
Aaron, you sold me on Uggla...and I would make that deal...and Granderson also if Detroit would take that deal...
but I'm not sure Hendry would get there.
The smokescreens are beginning to come up....If you check tonights Chicago Tribune...Billy Williams says don't give up on Bradley...and then at Cubs.com
Hendry says he hasn't given up on Bradley. (Sorry, I'm lousy at links).
So the Cubs are sending up signals that we don't have to trade Bradley...and he might be back. (I don't buy it...but we'll see).
Your thoughts are right on Aaron...But let's see what happens.
Boras is on his high horse again. I guess he always is. MORE lucrative than the Soriano bomb?? Good luck, Scott. Even owner in baseball looks at that deal and thanks the good lord that Jim out bid them.
Didn't Boras get brought back to the planet Earth last winter with some ludicrous "demand" with Manny and had to go back and take what LA offered?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/scott-boras-cli.html
He is evil though. Look at his client list and think of some of the contracts: Andrew Jones, Magglio, Dice-K, Zito...boy, those have all worked out as well as Soriano...
I admire successful people...But never Scott Boras...the master of nonsensical overpriced contracts.
Aaron...you love numbers...any way to do a statistical analysis of Boras's impact on ticket prices?...I bet we would all be surprised how he has dug into OUR wallets through his absurd contracts.
Yep...the owners are at fault/it's a free market and he's just doing his job for the players...BUT....
Possible three team deal being discussed for Bradley>
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10346028/Sources:-Bradley-being-discussed-in-3-way-deal
Bradley to Toronto, Castillo to the Cubs, and Mets get Overbay.
Rosenthal in my opinion is one of the best writers in the game. So there has to be some merit to this one.
Not sure what kind of money swap would go along with this, but any thoughts?
I actually would be in favor of that trade, it is better than the Burrell trade at least and Castilla can hit 2nd.
Castilla is making 12 million for the next 2 years.
Bradley is making 21 million the next 2 years
Overbay is making 14 million the next 2 years.
Cubs get Castilla and whole contract
Blue Jays get Bradley and Cubs give 5 million.
Mets get Overbay and 2 million.
So the Cubs will save and will have 3 more million to spend this offseason and all together will save 10 million.
The Mets just pay 12 million left on Castilla contract if you do the math.
The Blue Jays saye 3 million in the deal.
I know this is probably not close but this is my guess.
I made a mistake overbay is making 7 million next season and that is all. but just try and fix it up like that because I am having trouble re figuring it out.
This is too funny....first I heard of it....
Is Sammy Sosa following in Jacko's footsteps???
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10345994/Sosa's-lighter-skin-tone-becomes-Internet-craze?GT1=39002
Here's a link with some pictures of the White Sammy Sosa for you Joe lol
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Not-to-worry-Sammy-Sosa-is-just-rejuvenating-hi?urn=mlb,201086
Odds and ends for the day in baseball:
Crawford's option was picked up by Tampa, they have a kid coming up named Desmond Jennings who is ready to take over for Crawford - picking up his option now gives Tampa the chance to get a boatload of prospects in return.
Roy Halladay rumors about being traded this winter are becoming more prevalent. Wouldn't he look great in blue pinstripes?
Randy Winn was told to seek employment elsewhere. Would he be a decent 4th OF option for us? He is a defensive whiz, but how much would he cost?
Woody...we don't need Winn...we have Fuld...with Colvin/Snyder/Deeds (If all are retained) to look forward to.
Either Crawford or Halladay would look great with the Cubs....But they are both Long, Longshots for us.
Thanks for the link on the 3 way deal...
It would be great for the Mets...but I don't think it would work so well for Toronto or us....Toronto being the key.
(Last I saw, they were trying to lower payroll...and NOT do unpopular trades to maintain their fan base.