On this Veteran's Day, the CCO would like to thank all of those that have served our Country.
The GM Meetings conclude at noon on Wednesday ... and there were more rumors to come out of the O'Hare Hilton on Tuesday.
The phrase that pays so far this winter for the Chicago Cubs is "bounce back." As the GM Meetings wind down, Jim Hendry reiterated the fact they are looking for several players to "bounce back" next season and perform the way the Cubs' GM thought they would in 2009.
The long-term, back-loaded contracts with no trade clauses have caught up to Jim Hendry ... and there was speculation Tuesday, Hendry's future with the Cubs could hinge on how he handles trading Milton Bradley and putting together next year's team.
Here is the latest from the mill, including a few additions and more on Marlon Byrd, plus important 'little details' of the contract Milton Bradley inked last winter ... and scratch the Giants off as a possible destination for Bradley, Brian Sabean said 'No' when asked about acquiring Milton Bradley ...
Chatting with Bruce Levine
Bruce Levine's chat shed light on several Cubs' areas ... and of course rumors. Here are the highlights:
- Jim Hendry has been trying to trade Milton Bradley since September.
- The teams most interested in Bradley: Rays, Mets, Rangers and possibly the Angels. Hendry spent a lot of time with Tampa discussing Bradley on Monday night.
- Cubs have no money to spend this winter unless Hendry is able to trade some of the players already under contract.
- Mike Cameron is Plan D for the Cubs this winter. Levine stuck by his timeframe of January or February for the Cubs to sign Cameron if the first three options do not work out.
- Chone Figgins could be looking for four years and $45 million ... which would price the Cubs and the White Sox out of the market for Figgins.
- The Mets and Cubs do not have a good history as trading partners. While the Mets are looking to move Luis Castillo, Milton Bradley in New York would not work.
- The Cubs will be looking at the non-tender list in December before making a big move toward another outfielder.
- The Cubs have some interest in Mike Gonzalez for the bullpen.
- Jake Fox is a 24th or 25th player on a good team ... a starter on an up-and-coming team.
- Dan Uggla does not fit the Cubs' needs defensively. The Cubs are looking to improve their defense up the middle and Uggla, defensively, would be more of what they currently have.
- Levine puts the chances of Bradley being with the Cubs on Opening Day at 5%.
- Luis Castillo would "not be an awful trade" for the Cubs.
- Levine thinks the Cubs will have to eat around $5 million of Bradley's contract.
- The Cubs do not want Pat Burrell but they want Milton Bradley less.
- The Cubs "would be interested in adding" Ramon Troncoso of the Dodgers "depending on how much money he's asking for."
- Levine thinks Hendry and the Cubs are "tapped out as far as free-agent cash goes."
Milton Bradley
The Cubs current right fielder continued to be the focus of most the conversation about the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday.
According to a report from Bruce Levine on Tuesday night, Jim Hendry "rekindled talks with several clubs over the last 24 hours" about Milton Bradley. Hendry met with the Rays' GM. Andrew Friedman and special assistant Gerry Hunsicker "talked about the parameters of paring down the difference and the money" with Jim Hendry on a deal that would send Pat Burrell to the Cubs for Bradley.
The Rangers "would gladly trade" Kevin Millwood to the Cubs for Bradley according to Bruce Levine. The Cubs would have to pay around $12.5 million to send Bradley to Texas for Millwood. Bradley is owed more than $21 million (more on Bradley's contract below) and Millwood is due $12 million in 2010. The Rangers are willing to pay only $4 million of Bradley's remaining contract.
Levine reported, "the Cubs general manager did say he hoped to have a couple of deals made in the next few weeks before the winter meetings begin on December 7."
While the Cubs appear to be working on trading Bradley for "another bad contract" the sticking point with the teams Hendry has spoken with remains how much of the difference the Cubs will "eat."
Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe joined Seth Everett and Jim Bowden during Power Alley (XM Radio) on Tuesday morning. Abraham confirmed the tweet from Jon Heyman hours earlier.
Jon Heyman said (via Twitter), "Some of these Milton Bradley rumors are wild, but he has to go somewhere. Word is, many of the Cubs' stars won't even talk to him." Heyman later 'tweeted' that, "Milton Bradley is like an oddball kid in class with Cubs' teammates. No way he can go back according to sources."
Heyman expanded on his tweets later in the day with a report on SI.com. According to Heyman, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano "barely speak to Bradley."
"I don't think they dislike him. But Milton's a unique guy who doesn't fit in, like the oddball kid in class. He doesn't try to fit in. The other guys tried to take him in, but he's one of those kids that simply doesn't want to be a part of anything."
With Abraham verifying what Heyman said it would be hard to dismiss Bradley's trouble with his teammates. Abraham thinks Milton Bradley will end up back with the Texas Rangers ... while Heyman mentioned the Giants (for Aaron Rowand), the Rays (for Pat Burrell), the Angels (for Gary Matthews, Jr., though the Cubs are not interested in Matthew's Jr.), the Royals (for Jose Guillen) and the Mets (for Luis Castillo).
Jim Bowden spoke with people he knows inside of the Blue Jays organization and was told Toronto is not interested in acquiring Milton Bradley. Bowden emphatically stated Bradley would not be traded to the Blue Jays.
According to a report from Paul Sullivan, the Giants "aren't willing to do a bad contracts swap for Bradley."
Brian Sabean told the Tribune: "A deal like that? For a player like that? No. Is that succinct enough? I don't know that addition by subtraction would work. Smarter people than us have tried that."
Omar Minaya confirmed to the Tribune that he would be speaking with Jim Hendry about a possible Luis Castillo for Milton Bradley deal on Tuesday night. The Mets ownership does not want Milton but the feeling is the Mets could move Bradley to another team.
Milton Bradley's Contract
For most, the contract Milton Bradley signed last winter consisted of two years and $18 million that included a vesting option for a third year worth $12 million. More details have been released ... that Jim Hendry must deal with while trying to trade him.
Milton Bradley can earn an additional million dollars per year by making 575 plate appearances. Bradley has reached that total only once ... 2004 with the Dodgers (597).
- $200,000 for 525 plate appearances
- $300,000 for 550 plate appearances
- $500,000 for 575 plate appearances
Bradley is also guaranteed a suite on the road and can earn $75,000 for a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger or All-Star appearance.
So, Jim Hendry has to move $23 million, not the $21 million as thought. While Bradley has reached 575 plate appearances only once, he managed 509 in 2008 with the Rangers and with an AL team and the DH it is a possibility.
Arbitration Eligible
The Cubs have a large amount of arbitration eligible players that will account for a lot of "the small increase in payroll" from 2009 to 2010.
- Carlos Marmol
- Jeff Baker
- Sean Marshall
- Ryan Theriot
- Koyie Hill
- Aaron Heilman
- Angel Guzman
- Tom Gorzelanny
- Neal Cotts
Mike Fontenot could be a Super 2 and the Cubs will find out for sure on Friday. According to Bruce Miles, Carlos Marmol "figures to get a nice raise." Marmol, Marshall, Theriot, Hill and Guzman are arbitration eligible for the first time.
Marlon Byrd
A report from FoxSports.com Tuesday night indicated the Cubs could have interest in Marlon Byrd ... and Bruce Miles confirmed the Cubs' interest later in the evening.
"We're a long way from that now, but the Cubs will have their eyes on Byrd when he hits the open market later this month." Miles reported Rudy Jaramillo likes Marlon Byrd.
According to a report from the Tribune, Jim Hendry will target Marlon Byrd once the 15-day window ends on November 20. Hendry, as mentioned by the CCO, tried to trade to Byrd prior to the 2008 season and Byrd is a favorite of Rudy Jaramillo.
Jeff Samardzija
According to a report from Bruce Miles, Jim Hendry is "comfortable with the in-house options the Cubs have while Ted Lilly spends at least part of April rehabbing from shoulder surgery."
Hendry mentioned Jeff Samardzija first in the list of "in-house options" along with Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzelanny. The Cubs feel "good about the progress Samardzija made in Mexico."
Jeff Samardzija's line in Winter Ball: 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in five starts with a 1.25 WHIP and a .256 opponents batting average. Samardzija walked eight and struck out 22 in 24 innings.
Derrek Lee
Bruce Levine has reported for weeks the Cubs would like to extend Derrek Lee's contract this winter. Lee will become a free agent after next season. The Tribune reported the Cubs "are in no hurry to open talks with Derrek Lee over a contract extension." If Lee puts up similar numbers in 2010 that he did in 2009 he is in line for a "sizable contract."
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Well, that's the latest ... and I'm sticking to it!


















I don't think there is much "speculation" to Jim Hendry's future being tied to how he handles the Milton Bradley situation and how he puts together next years team. I think thats a no-brainer.
Ricketts did the right thing. Came in without making it seem like he was a control freak. He will spend this season getting to know everyone and see how things play out. With Lou out as manager after this season...it could be a clean sweep of all personnnel at the end of the year unless Hendry puts a World Series trophy or even perhaps a League Trophy in Ricketts office come November. There simply is no "speculation" to that.
While Dan Uggla would not be my first choice, I disagree that he would be a bad choice. He may not be a gold glove, but he is not horrible. His career fielding percentage is .981. Hall of famer Ryne Sandberg was only .989 for his career. So .008 of a differnce between Uggla and Sandberg makes Uggla such a defensive liability? Further, I wonder how many of Uggla's errors would be avoided by having a gold glove first baseman such as Derrek Lee. Not to mention the offense Uggla brings to the table. He averages 30 homeruns and 30 or so doubles along with 90 or so rbi's. Though he does make many of his outs via the strike out--but again I wonder how much better he can be under the tutorial of the widely regarded hitting coach we now have. I just don't see this as a horrible option.
If we could get Uggla on a two year reasonable deal while Castro comes along....I'd do it.
As for the difference in money that Hendry has to move for Bradley, it's hardly an issue in my book. In todays game the difference between 21 million and 23 million would be like the difference between $5 and $10 for any of us. It's not going to be a factor in the decision of trading him. Not to mention, as pointed out--he has reached the required amount of plate appearances for that money just one time in his career.
Marlon Byrd wouldn't be the worst option...but I certainly hope there are better options.
I agree that the Cubs shouldnt have to worry too much about replacing Lilly. We have enough in house options to cover for him...if in fact he misses any time. Remember, we won't need a 5th starter right away with two scheduled off days in the first two weeks. I do hope that Harden signs a one year deal at a reasonable rate. It would behoove him as he is still looked at as fragile despite back to back seasons of at least 25 starts. I think if he gives himself one more year of staying healthy and pushes 30 starts and closer to 200 innings rather than 150...he could be in line for the payday he is seeking. But right now he is still looked at as a risk.
Mike Cameron should be plan X. He's 37 and exactly what the Cubs do not need as their everyday centerfielder. I still stick to my wish to re-sign Reed Johnson and platoon him and Sam Fuld out there.
I don't give a rat's patooey what kind of clubhouse problem he is.
You DO NOT trade Milton Bradley if you have to eat anything.
Let me get this right. To compensate for the bad deal you give a bad player, you make a worse deal to receive an even worse player.
Oy vey, Cubbies.
This is like going to Broadway to see a hit show you've had tickets to for months.
You've invested big time on the best seats in the house...the curtain opens
and it turns out to be the very worst
show you've seen.
Because you invested so heavily and your seats are down front...you can't leave.
But you're horrified at how bad the show is as it unfolds.
For example...almost all the trade scenarios so far with Bradley represent
a 7 to 12 million increase in payroll.
(not doable)
(We pay most of Milton's salary plus the salary of the bad contract returning.)
So basically, for the pleasure of not seeing Milton's mug in Cubbie Blue...we end up paying for both Milton and whatever bad contract we get in return.
What a deal ! ! !
I bet Hendry wishes he never had that dinner with Uncle Milty. Imagine...the Rangers had a one year offer of 6 million
on the table for Milton...and Hendry
"steals" him for $30 plus million.
At this point, I see no favorable
outcome here.
Ricketts was shrewd in retaining Hendry.
He has no operating room to make any
major acquisitions...(and screwing us up more.)...And little chance of salvaging
himself from his past errors.
A new GM coming in right away could do little to clean up Hendry's mess right away...and would have sullied his own
reputation from the get go.
If I were Ricketts...I'd tell Hendry
absolutely NO extensions this year...
To clear the way for a new GM to rebuild the team to his liking.
btw...Has Lou officially execised his
option to manage next season yet?
I don't think he has.
Think he's waiting to see what happens before he commits?
Been reading the informative and detailed posts from the last few days...good information and opinions.
For me, I just find it disgusting (though typical Cubs) that here we are with the 3rd largest payroll in all of baseball, and yet we have so many glaring holes and currently no payroll flexibility. In and of itself, that should fuel Hendry's immediate firing.
All we hear is Hendry has to move Bradley before any other "moves" take place. I agree 100% with Suzy's earlier post....just release Bradley and don't take on another crappy contract that grabs a roster spot. On Bradley, I'd actually be looking at the legal possibilities of how we might void his contract based on behavioral issues from last season. I wouldn't even bother trying to move him. I'd put a legal full court press on the guy, and make him squirm.
If the team wants payroll flexibility, here's some moves to make:
Move Fukodome and probably eat 1/2 of his remaining $24m
Move Soriano and eat probably 1/2 to 2/3 of his contract
Move Zambrano, don't eat a thing, and try to leverage a Buchholz in return, straight up.
I'm so tired of reading about the Cubs interest in these 30-some year old marginal players, or how Hendry "hopes" our current players rebound from their abysmal 2009 performance. And even better, now we might consider a contract extension for a 34 y/o 1B who came off a good year (typical Hendry move). We have an incompetent GM who has saddled our franchise with so many back-loaded contracts it's ridiculous, and a manager who is truly ready and eager to be put out to pasture.
If we're going to make an external move it should be for the likes of a Buchholz or Grady Sizemore, younger players that you can build the future off of. Perhaps a Soto, Theriot and a mid-level prospect might yield a Sizemore.
The bottomline is that this team isn't going to win anything anytime soon unless we start building a younger and more athletic roster foundation.
As Aaron has commented, we should bring up the system players who have momentum going in the right direction. I'll pay to watch a Castro, Clavenger, Fox, Fuld, Vitters, etc play with some heart and energy....and learning along the way with the "best hitting coach in all of baseball". Let's see what he's made of.
But for now, this franchise is in shambles.
Nice post Bryan. Though Seizmore is not moving from Cleveland any time soon because he is cheaply signed through 2016 at 2.4mil per year. I'd get rid of Soriano Fuku Bradley and Z in a heartbeat...but it is kind of unrealistic IMO. I insist, we should now turn our attention in Firing Lou and giving the manegerial job to Duncan. That way we compete with what we have, including Milton if necessary, and we upgrade in the trade deadline like the Cardinals and Phillies did last year. Theres really no need to add anyone to this team other than that pitching coach united with Jaramillo and let the young kids play.
"The System players" you want to move up are not good enough to play MLB.
I'd keep Uncle Milty. There has to be some way he violates his contract that you can void it.
According to the Cubs brass, you have the best hitting coach in all of baseball, and one of the brightest managers in the game (very debatable). Let's see them actually mold a team based around youth and upside, regardless of present day readiness.
oh man....this just keeps getting interesting. First of all, why the hell would Hendry sign Grabow for 2 or more years for $3 million+/yr when there's Mike Gonzalez out there, who averages about a 2.57 ERA per season...........hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, what do I choose? I have Grabow averaging a 4+ ERA, or another lefty the same age averaging 2.50's.........hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....what do I choose? This is so difficult for me. I'm Jim Hendry, and I don't know what to do......hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....I have 4 outfielders to choose from, and 3 of them average 150+ games, and 3 of them average about 100+RBI......How do I choose? Oh, I know, I'll go after the one that averages 85 games played and around 50 RBI....Yes, that'll show everyone that I'm smarter than they are....hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....I have about 5 internal possibilities at the MLB minimum salary for 5th starter, and one coming off a season in which he had a 6+ERA..............AND wanting multiple years for close to $10 million/yr. Oh, I know, I'll sign the veteran at 3 yrs, $21 million, and we'll turn him around, and I'll show everyone how smart I am.
I have several options in my system for a back-up infield position....oh, I know, I'll sign the midget veteran for 2 yrs, $5.5 million....that'll show everyone.
I already have a closer in waiting that was incredibly dominant last season in the set-up role, and I've already stated we're getting rid of our closer from last season. Did I mention we also have this internal closer for league minimum? Oh, I know, I'll traded one of our top pitching prospects that throws 100 mph, for a closer making $4 million/yr, coming off 9 blown saves, knee surgery, and would've been non-tendered anyhow....that'll show 'em...........hmmmmmmmmmmmm......I have a speedy CF from our own system that makes league minimum, and hasn't been given a full chance yet to prove himself, and I have a MLB veteran that's had several full seasons, but has only proven that he can steal bases...not hit......I know what I'll do, I'll trade that prospect of mine for spare parts, and I'll give this veteran his job...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.....I have an incredibly valuable, versatile player that hit 20+hr, 80+RBI.....I know what I'll do....In order to get younger on this team, I'll trade him for 3 marginal prospects not even listed on the other team's top 30 prospects list...if any of them pan out, that'll show everyone.....because they weren't on any list, so obviously I saw something in them nobody else did...hee hee....I'll look sooooooooooooooooo smart.
Seriously....IDIOT.....biggest FAILURE in all of management in baseball=Jim Hendry.
Getting Ceda for Todd Walker was a stroke of genius. Getting Kyler Burke for Michael Barrett was also genius. Getting ARAM from the Pirates for spare parts when he was a malcontent with the Pirates was also a stroke of genius. Getting Lee for Choi was shrewd. But trading Ceda for Gregg negates the first trade genius. In all likelihood, letting Burke languish in the low minors will negate advantage of that trade. Signing Lee to a HUGE extension when coming off a career year, so unlike his previous #'s actually negated the benefits of the Choi trade. Why? Because when your first baseman is hitting 20 hr, 80 RBI (not far off his career #'s prior to his career year), and making $13 million/year, and you're in a big market, you should expect 30 hr, 100+ RBI from your first baseman, because every other big market team demands that.
Hendry has done a WHOLE lot of bad, and very little good for this team. He hit on Lilly and DeRosa big time, but those were actually relatively low key signings. Neither were particularly highly sought after. Lilly had injury issues prior to coming, and DeRosa had a breakout season in basically his first full opportunity.
Hendry escaped by a slim margin, because the Trib essentially gave him a blank check to fix any damage he caused, and he could just keep throwing money at the problem, rather than looking at himself in the mirror, and actually realize that HE was the problem...that HE wasn't smart enough to get out of the situation without spending even MORE money.
Indeed, it looks like the smartest thing Ricketts could do, was place a cap on Hendry's spending, so he was forced to actually prove his worth as a GM. It's a chance for Hendry to show that he wasn't merely given a blank check, and that he actually knows what he's doing.
Fact is, Hendry does NOT know what he's doing, and I think we'll find out very soon why he doesn't know what he's doing.
He will give Grabow his deal for $3 million/yr. He will have to eat a good portion of Bradley's deal and/or take an even worse contract just to get rid of his ill-advised mistake in the first place. He won't solve our pitching issue with Harden leaving and Lilly injured, and he'll claim that "finances were an issue", and we'll enter the season short on starters.
He'll keep Miles, thus holding up a valuable roster spot, and he'll claim, "personal issues were the result of his poor season, and we expect him to rebound this season," and we all know how that'll turn out.
He'll sign Marlon Byrd to a 3 yr $24 million deal, and claim, "we've had our eye on him for a long time. He's a really good, athletic player." All the while, he'll be ignoring that he's actually 32 yrs old, and the fact he'll be 35 yrs old at the end of the deal. He'll also ignore the fact that about every infatuation he's ever had, has NEVER turned out well for him. Such guys as Floyd, Heilman, and Bradley....how'd those turn out?!?
Well Aaron, Jim Hendry is probably more aggresive because Gonzalez will command more and he might not be a ble to sign him and with having negotions rights with Grabow, it is eaiser to get him.
Also I think Byrd is a pan B or C and he would like to find a CF via trade is my guess.
Nice to see everyone so feisty for an early morning. If we truly see Hendry execute some further bonehead moves (Byrd, Grabow (health issues, extending Lee, etc), I'm gonna puke.
A $140m payroll, and we're handcuffed in making moves. Brilliance at the GM level.
The Cubs are closing in on Grabow.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10343728/Latest-buzz-from-MLB%27s-GM-meetings
Also this is off topice and no one probably care but Derrek should win gold glove today amd if not the voting is fixed.
Also the Reds want to shed payroll in 2010, hwt aabout Brando Phillips.
Cubs trade Matt Camp, Flaherty and Mitch Atkins for Phillips.
Camp has no place on the team with Vitters, Demaniu and Castro moving up. Also Phillips is younger and is a free agent after 2010, they can trade him at the deadline for more in return rather than what they gave up or offer him arbitration who is likely to be a type A free agent.
Any Thoughts?
my bad Phillips in on contract throught 2011 with a club option and a 1 million buyout.
We know who the next manager is going to be, but how about the next GM? Jocketty has so much control over the Reds, that it is doubtful he could be talked out of his position there, but I wonder what he could do with a Cub like payroll. Who's out there that is unemployed but deserves another chance? Who could be lured from their current team?
Gary...we need a fresh, younger, forward thinking GM like a Theo Epstein. A must will be a GM that commits to the farm system development as priority #1.
I have a fundamental question??? If the Cubs are soooo payroll strapped, and we know that they are...and we know why they are... then how can they offer contracts to guys like Marlon Byrd? Mike Gonzales? etc. These reports are aggravating because they are contradicting. We can't add payroll, but we are going to eat Bradley's contract AND pay another player... HUH? We can't add payroll but we can sign X (Insert 30+ year old aging person, that Hendry will no doubt sign for 3+ years to an inflated contract)... HUH?
We can't add payroll, but we are going to give Grabow, and Lee and Lilly contract extensions... HUH???
The Cubs are in a serious pickle.... They have a dope of a GM who continues to handcuff the future of this team financially and by blocking players. They have youth abound, but can't find it in them to play them, or maybe they are not as good as we all think they are. The trades that we have been offered only make the team worse, and Ricketts can't clean house yet for exactly the reason that someone mentioned, NOONE CAN FIX THIS, and anyone they do bring in would be dirtied by this mess.
Jim, Understand something PLEASE!!!!!!!
The reason you are having a hard time trading Milton is the 2nd year of the contract, that you so blindly threw in there with this dumb 85 game clause. You did that!!!!!
Jim also understand this and understand it RIGHT NOW... Adding Cameron, Byrd, Burrell, Wells, Millwood, Grabow, HURT YOU!!!! Signing them to 3+ years and they are all over 30 is BAD! And screws us even further. I do not make near the money that you do and I can see this as clearly as the back of my hand. It is going to be a great day at the CCO when most of us are proven right, and Hendry is gonzarino, and someone who can pull off the moves that make us younger and better comes in. It will happen and today is the first time that I have seen in print that Hendry is starting to squirm. That is the best news to come out of this... All the rest is BAD BAD BAD...Our Cubby blue mettle will no doubt be tested over the next year. Someday... someday...
Cloycub....you hit in on the head regarding Bradley. That 3rd year gimme extension was the dumbest move ever by Hendry. You have to wonder what he was possibly thinking.
So im sure many of you have seen the MLBTR article bout the Reds offloading some of their big names.
Do you guys think it would be the least bit feasible to see Hendry go hard after Brandon Phillips... He would be a great bat with speed for our lineup...
anyone?? anyone?? Bueller?
I like Phillips and was thinking he might be a nice acquisition. The issue once again is our lack of desirable prospects to trade. To me, the farm system is JH's great failing. His free agent signings and trades have had mixed success ... I'd consider him an average GM in that respect. Another team with better prospects will likely pick off Phillips. Camp, Flaherty and Atkins as proposed above isn't enough for Phillips as the Reds would likely require one prospect with much higher upside. Maybe Cashner or Jackson plus two those three would get it done.
there are several factors to consider when thinking about this very unique offseason, and they are as follows:
1)Economic factors
2)bad contracts already on the books
3)arbitration cases
4)non-tender candidates
5)Rule 5 draft
Economic factors is self-explanatory. The Reds already have to cut ticket prices, and payroll because their gates suffered last year. Other teams are in a similar boat. Teams during the early part of this decade up to about last year went on an unprecedented spending spree. This even included smaller market teams. Unfortunately, declining attendance in these small markets has forced teams now to consider unloading veterans for either bad contract swaps or outright releasing them to remain competitive. We already saw last year with the waiver swap of Alex Rios, and Sheffield and Lugo being released, among others. Expect more of that to happen. A huge amount of players are arbitration eligible this year. Anyone want to guess why? IMO, it was because of the atrition we saw throughout the league when steroid testing commenced. Veterans started retiring, etc., and young players got their chance....now they're up for arbitration. Non-tenders happen when teams have an internal replacement option and/or cheaper veteran FA option for less than what that player would receive through arbitration, so he's non-tendered. In some cases, a team upgrades significantly through FA or trade, and no longer needs that individual as well. Expect a LOT of this to happen this year. Here's an interesting thing to think about....
This year, unlike many years past, teams are VERY cost conscious. Expect teams to fill voids through the Rule 5 draft unlike anything you've ever seen before. They'll take guys that are MLB ready, and they won't take chances on a guy like David Patton, knowing a single-A guy isn't likely to pan out. THey're ACTUALLY seeking cost effective replacements rather than go the FA route.
I believe we could have quite a number of players selected. We'll probably add the likes of Gaub, W. Castillo, and Parker, but guys like Papelbon, Camp, and Adduci will more than likely be drafted, and so will Snyder, Bibens-Dirxx, Chirinos, and Spears through the Rule 55 minor league draft.
So, look for teams to be highly active in the Rule 5 this offseason, and look for teams to make curious drafts and curious protections of players you otherwise might not think about. Remember that teams will look to fill voids cost effectively, so when you see a guy like Camp drafted, and you're thinking, "well, his minor league stats are decent, but they don't jump out at you..." or Adduci, "he's fast, high average, but nothing much else...." remember that teams need role players, and they need speed, and they often look to the Rule 5 for those type of specialty players, or simply just to have a warm body that could develop into a decent player someday.
I would love a guy like Phillips on our roster, but he's 28 years old and in his prime, and the Reds will demand a king's ransom for him, and you can count on that. PLUS, we have Flaherty in the wings, and even LeMahieu, so I wouldn't sweat that much. What I would sweat is not giving Castro the SS job, or not finding a bridge in RF to the eventual call-up of Burke in the next few years...that's what I worry about. Phillips and Uggla would be nice, but they'd also likely cost us our future too, such as the Flaherty's, Jackson's, Castro's, and Vitter's of this world (though, I would trade Vitters, because he has bust written all over him).
Here's what I expect for the roster to start next season (a little less pessimistic than I previously wrote):
SP:
Z
Dempster
Wells
Gorzelanny
Samardzija (until Lilly is back)
RP:
Berg, Caridad, Marshall, Grabow, Heilman, Guzman, Marmol
bench: Fontenot, Miles, Fuld, K Hill, Fox
C-Soto
1B-Lee
2B-Baker
SS-Theriot
3B-ARAM
LF-Soriano
CF-Byrd
RF-Fukudome
Now, tell me that won't be the worst lineup in the league, because I'm thinking regression from Baker, regression from Lee, same old Fukudome, same old injury plagued Soriano, injury plagued ARAM---but effective, slight bounce back from Soto, same old Theriot. About the only unknown is Byrd....he'd be an upgrade over Bradley by about 10 hr, 40 RBI, which would equal roughly a full player's season, so that'd be okay, but everything else sucks, and that's what Hendry has saddled us with.
Sure, he'll "try" to make deals, but he'll come back saying it wasn't in his best interest to do so (and he might be right), but it doesn't take away the fact that he caused this mess
That's a petty realistic roster ... in fact, I'd be shocked if there is much in terms of upgrades from what you spell out. It's not a top 5 NL roster, but I don't agree with you that it's the worst line-up in the league. I'd say it's pretty average and could be good for a .500 season.
Despite what is being said by management, the team is a mess and I don't expect us to content in 2010. It's going to take a few years to rebuild the system
Aaron,
If that is our roster for opening day then we may as well just wait for 2011 because that rotation would be average at best and that lineup would be OK (if healthy & assuming bouncebacks from Soriano and Soto) but still not a devastating or scary lineup by any means.
That bullpen would also be a gigantic question mark due to its youth in the middle parts and question marks throughout as far as Marmol as a closer and whatnot.
WITH THAT SAID,
I strongly believe that will not be our lineup and I think it will be marginally better, I do expect Hendry to pull a rabbit outta the hat as we have seen him get creative in the past (Nomar, Hundley, ARam/Lofton, Lee) and we have seen him sign under the radar guys (Lilly, DeRosa, Dempster, Baker,...)
You know what I would do? I would pull a New York Yankees and absolutely destroy our farm system and buy a world series. I mean take the top 10 free agents on the market and guarantee a postseason birth. After we win one, rebuild the farm system. Maybe I'm a little impatient...
Now that's a formula for sustained success. Not!
Believe it or not, the NYY have one of the top farm systems. Yes, they did buy 3 of last years most expensive FA's but year in year out since 1995 they have had the most homegrown players out of all the playoff teams. Also these guys are all star caliber(Jeter, Posada, Petite, Rivera, Cano) and on the rise players (Chamberlin, Hughes, Cabrera).
Bruce Levine said that Mike Cameron is Plan D for CF......who are plans ABC?
Im hoping plans A, B, C involve players like Upton, Crawford, Rowand (OR Holliday/Bay for RF and Fukudome in CF)
A man can dream right?
I still think we need to trade Soto at his highest value now. He is still young, but last year proved he is a fat stoner. Not a good combo for a catcher and his knees. We discussed briefly the other day about sending him to Detroit in a Granderson and Laird for Bradley, Soto, and mid level pitching prospect.
We could then turn around and trade Laird in a deal for either prospects or a swing man in the rotation/pen. Or include him in a package with Vitters to get Brandon Phillips from the Reds. I would think Laird, Vitters, and a mid level pitching prospect should be able to net us Phillips.
Koyie Hill proved this year he can handle the staff. That should be our only requirement for a catcher, with an occasional hit or two. Bring up one of Clevenger or Castillo to share duties with Hill get some experience.
The lineup after these two deals should presumably look like this:
1. Fukudome/Fuld
2. Phillips
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Granderson
6. Soriano
7. Theriot/Castro
8. Hill
9. Pitcher
That's three lefties in the starting lineup on a daily basis. Much improved over last season.
We keep hearing the same list of potential suitors for Bradley. The Angels keep getting brought up. He would basically be there to replace Guerrero if that were the case but I hope its not Matthews Jr that they are talking about as the potential trade. Anyone have any insight as to who else the Angels could potentially trade?
Hey all, MLB TRade rumors has Matt Lindstrom being talked about.... A cure for the Bully??? He is a fireballer!
Do we have what it takes??
Florida is always a tough trading partner. They always want top prospects for their guys. For example, when Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell were traded to Boston - they got a Hanley Ramirez among others in return. Lindstrom they are going to hold in high regards because he got alot of saves last year. They overvalue their players - Lindstrom would be a set up man in front of Marmol, so would be too expensive to try and snatch him from Florida.
Good point on their philosophy.
Just read on MLBTR that Curtis Granderson has been made available by the Tigers. Would the Tigers actually take Bradley, Soto, and others in exchange for Curtis? It's a pipedream, but that's what CCO is all about! :)
By the way Woody, if we were actually lucky enough to acquire him, I love your idea of putting Granderson in the 5-hole between ARAM and Sori. He shouldn't be a lead-off hitter, his OBP isn't high enough and he strikes out too much. He is a free-swinger with power, kind of like a younger and more athletic Soriano. I also like the speed threat of Granderson while Soriano is at-bat....Soriano would see more fastballs in that situation.
You just know Hendry doesn't have the balls to trade Soto. It's his "proof" that he can produce players, a year removed from winning ROY. A good GM would look at what he has coming up from the minors and realize I can get max value for this guy now - lets pull that trigger.
I put Fukudome as leadoff, because I actually have a little faith that Rudy can turn him into a legitimate leadoff hitter. He also seemed to thrive there last year.
The two hole is the issue. The best player on the roster to hit in the two hole ideally would be Derrick Lee. He can hit the other way, decent OBP, he could move the runner along. Phillips would be a better 3 or 5 hitter, but we need to break up the righties with Granderson. Granderson might be ok in the two hole, but you then have lefties hitting back to back to leadoff.
If the Cubs did get Granderson and no other move the lineup will probably be like this:
CF Granderson
SS Ryan Theriot
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Kosuke Fukudome
LF Alfonso Soriano
2B Jeff Baker
C Geovany Soto
P Pitcher
I've said it before and I'll say it again, getting Granderson via trade would be one of the best - most realistic - upgrades Hendry could make. But now that Phillips maybe available it becomes trickier, because I covet him as well. Now, we all know that trickier is not better when it comes to Cruller Jim's negotiating abilities. We'll see...eh, Lou?
I have had a BROner for C-Grand for years he is a great ballplayer and Hendry should do anything AND EVERYTHING to trade for him ASAP!
GET IT DONE YESTERDAY TRADER JIM! RESTORE OUR FAITH!
Neil, did I miss it? Did Lou officially exercise his option or not? I don't see it anywhere...and Ricketts in his myriad
of inaugural speeches said "I hope Lou comes back."
It's probably just a formality...but one I'm thinking about.
We can only hope that Lou's senility and hibernation would continue thru the option exercise time period...but we couldn't be so lucky.
:)
Suzy ... Lou's option for 2010 was picked up last September (Sept 30, 2008).
Here's the link to the update I posted
http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2008/09/loupiniella_opt.php
Thanks Neil...I missed it...I thought it was Lou's option...not JH's. My oversight.
Not a problem, it was over a year ago.
That's what I'm here for.
I find it exasperating that there is going to be a ton of affordable of talent out there...and we have very little flexibility to take advantage of good deals...brcause of all the bad deals
we've made.
I appreciate everyone's posts here today...a lot of good food for fodder.
Aaron...your reasonable opening day lineup is close to the truth...but I suspect there might be a few more tweaks.
But still...the energy of the team will come from the bench and youngeters.
The pen will be better with Gaub/Guzman/
Caridad, and Marmol...from the get go.
Once Grabow is signed...look for Marshall to be traded...and somewhere in the throw ins will be Miles.
Just by eliminatig Gregg and Miles will make us a better team.
While the team looks a mess just now...
near term victory can be salvaged within 3 years...If done right.
It's just a little blurb...but might have far reaching implications. Yesterday I mentioned the Cubs are seeking a CFO (Chief Financial Officer).
One of the duties of a CFO is long term financial planning...and that would include on field budgets....and watching contracts.
The Cubs have never really had that before. They had Hendry operating out of the seat of his pants....No long term plan...just a WIN NOW edict from the Trib...the last few years...and no one that really knew how to accomplish that.
The CFO would say...in order to achieve
flexibility...the team can afford x number of no trade cntracts at a time.
etc...It would be another set of eyes
evaluating how this contract or that
affects the team's long term goals...and would be a check in overpaying for contracts...In other words...a really vital piece to seeing we do not get into a situation like this again.
He also would have a loy of duties in other areas...but would be key in developing a long term vision of the team.
In that respect, I applaud Ricketts.
It's interesting to think about what has happened to the Cubs over the past year. I lot of the "mess" comes down to how JH reacted to 3 games (the playoff losses to the Dodgers). 3 games means nothing from a statistical signifcance standpoint. Any major league team can win 3 games from any other team. If JH had not reacted quickly to try to "fix" the supposed problems (like not enough left handedness in the line-up) as he did, the Cubs likely would have kept DeRosa and not signed Bradley and Miles and could have waited free agency out and picked up the bargains available later in the process (while reducing the total dollars spent). We had a 90+ win team and in one year it has been turned into a mess that will take a few years to recover from ...
The Cardinals will likely not make the same mistake this offseason.
David, it is really amazing ...isn't it.
In the last 2 years, we watched both Milwaukee and St Louis expend a considerable part of their future in prospects for what looks to be one year rentals...somewhat successfully...because they both made the playoffs...but neither quite got the prize.
The Cards will still win or lose on the health of Carpenter and Wainright...
and Pujols being Pujols.
Milwaukee got screwed out of draft picks
with their CC escapade...and hasn't recovered.
Phil Rodgers is advocating the Cubs trade Marmol, Castro and whatever else the Tigers want for Granderson.
Do we want to do that? I don't know.
Granderson is great...but a good closer
and shortstop are hard to come by.
And then what happens next without those guys?
I will have more on Granderson later ... too much for him and consider the source.
Marmol and Castro may be what it takes to get Granderson, but if that is the case, I'll pass. Now if we could get BJ Upton for those 2 and a couple lesser prospects, I'd make the deal.
A great era in Cubs History has come to a close.
Bruce Levine reports that Ed Lynch has finally left the Cubs...to pursue a job
with mlb.
Levine says he was a scout in Arizona.
Please join me in wishing him well in his future endeavors.
Let me start the rumor here...Jim Hendry
is considered to be prime candidate to replace Mr. Lynch.
My tongue is way ,way up in my cheek.
:)
Suzy, I was just about to post that for you.
Not only did the Tribune era end in the last 30 days, so did the Ed Lynch era.
We all need to just settle down and plan out our Thanksgiving Meals and go out and enjoy Black Friday shopping. Very little will be accomplished between now and mid-December--especially with the wide expectation that numerous players will be non-tendered this year.
Here are some important dates to remember:
December 1st is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to its "ranked" free agents in order to be eligible for compensation if that player signs elsewhere.
December 7th is the deadline for a player to accept arbitration from his former club--so we may see some free agents at this time.
December 10th is the Rule V draft....there can be a player or to who is an impact player from this draft. Dan Uggla was a rule V draft by the Marlins when the Rockies left him unprotected in 2005. Shane Victorino was a rule V pick two times--once by the Padres from the Dodgers in 2002 and then again by the Phillies from the Dodgers. Even funnier than him being drafted twice was that the Dodgers refused to take him back when the Phillies didnt want to keep him in the majors. Also Johna Santana was a rule V draft by the Twins from the Astros, and we all know Josh Hamilton was a rule V draft pick by the Chicago Cubs who agreed to pick on behalf of the Reds. So there are a few gems to be found in the rule V draft.
December 12th is the deadline for clubs to offer 2010 contracts to any of its unsigned players. This is generally for players who are eligible for arbitration. Teams that feel the player is not worth what he may receive at arbitration will "non-tender" the player. This is where there is expected to be a large number of available players this year.
So, it's not until December 12th that the list of available players really shakes itself out. All this nonsense about Hendry not doing anything or whatever is not fair nor accurate.
I'm fine with him seeing what he can do with Bradley over the next few weeks. Hopefully something shakes out before or at the Winter Meetings December 7-10.
So get that turkey ready....cook the pumpkin pie....pour some egg nog (Neil put the spiced rum away)...and enjoy the holidays and when we come back get ready because then we will start to see some movement.
Neil...
I WANT TO BUY MY GRANDERSON CUBS JERSEY NOW! CAN WE GET THIS DONE (BUT NOT FOR MARMOL AND/OR CASTRO) HAHA
but seriously I REALLLYYYYYY want granderson in CF...great power, great speed, great D, hell, the guy hit like 25 triples a few years ago...
imagine, he hit 30 HRs in a huge ballpark, think what he could do at Wrigley and sandwiched between Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, and Soto... SCARY
What are the odds of this actually happening and what is a realistic scenario? Would it include a Bonderman and Bradley in the deal?
Would Granderson for Marshall, Fox, and a prospect or two get it done?
Marshall, Fox and a couple prospects (unless its Castro) won't be enough for Granderson. You need to deal value to get value and Marshall and Fox don't have much value in the trade market. I'd expect it to cost at least Marmol (Tigers are looking for a closer) and propects and for that reason, I don't see it happening.
David, have to disagree on Marshall. Teams were asking a lot about him last winter. I think he has value but dealing him would hurt what little starting depth the Cubs have.
The knock on Granderson is he cannot hit lefties and that will hurt his value. As Keith Law put it, Granderson is a platoon player that most view as an everyday player.
While I like Marshall's versatility, I am not a fan of him as a starter. He is a good guy to have as a lefty specialist, or for an inning of work late in the game. His starting is less than stellar.
I point to last year: As a reliever he pitched in 46 games with an ERA of 3.23 while batter hit .257 against him. As a starter in 9 games his ERA was 5.24 while batters hit .288 against him.
If he can be used as part of a trade, go for it.
As for Granderson I agree 100% he belongs as a platoon player. He is HORRIBLE against left handed pitching. Could Rudy work with him and his hitting to make him serviceable against lefties? I don't know.
Good point on Rudy Jaramillo ...
I think you are close on what it would take to land Granderson. Marshall is highly regarded throughout the league and Fox could help the Tigers, plus that would give them salary relief for the next two years.
If they are shopping Edwin Jackson, they might be looking for another starter ...
It just depends on what another team is willing to give. The Cubs best prospects are in Double-A and below.
Can anyone tell me what a "Super 2" is??
And why is LBR one?
Thank You in advance.
A player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. In addition, a player can be classified as a "Super Two" and be eligible for arbitration with less than three years of service. A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.
Joe, thank you for posting. Working on tomorrow's article. Yep, Fontenot by one day ... and that day could cost him a job with the Cubs.
Thanks Joe. That definition is clear as mud. How many lawyers did the MLPA have to pay to come up with that classification and convince Uncle Bud it was a good thing to put in the agreement?
An update....Mike Fontenot DID get awarded Super Two status by a tie-breaker. From MLB.COM:
Cubs infielder Mike Fontenot was awarded the final arbitration spot for players with between two and three years of major league service.
Fontenot had 2 years, 139 days of service time to tie Orioles center fielder Adam Jones and Reds pitcher Micah Owings but won the tiebreaker for "Super Two" status because he had more service time last season.
Talk about getting screwed....Mike Fontenot won the tie breaker between Jones and Owings at 2 years 139 days of service. ONE DAY behind those three was Diamondback third baseman Mark Reynolds. All he did last season was hit 44 homeruns and drive in 102 runs but he doesnt get to go to arbitration a year early. The Diamondbacks just saved several million dollars. I'd say Reynolds is not too happy tonight.
Update #2.... Cubs Pitcher Tom Gorzelanny also was named a "Super Two" player as well.
In Gorzelanny's case...he's earned it after the Pirates let him langor in the minor leagues solely to avoid arbitration.
I don't quite think Dontenot has earned it...But he won by an eyelash.
Suzy, was that a typo or a direct slap at LBR's production (or lack of it) last season?
Typo...I like the guy...he just didn't
produce.
I have to ask...does anybody feel Brad
Snyder could be successful for us in the outfield next season?
And I'd also welcome thoughts on Thomas
Diamond...both of whom are with the Mexacali team right now.
Suzy ... count me as one who thinks Brad Snyder could help next season. I like what I saw last spring and he could be a better option off the bench than Hoffpauir.
As for Thomas Diamond, I have not seen him pitch and looking forward to it in spring training.
He was the Rangers' 19th best prospect in 2008 according to Baseball America (4th in 2007 and 3rd in 2006)
Diamond had Tommy John Surgery in March of 2007 and missed the entire year.
He passed through waivers twice last year so I wonder how much he has left.
I would disagree on Snyder for a couple of reasons. Coming off the bench is a difficult tough task. I think a very tough task for a young player. Though Snyder will be 28 in May, he would be a rookie in the majors. Further, with Snyders high strike out average in the minors, that--to me--is exactly what a bench player shouldn't be.
As you mentioned Hoffpauir, I think Hendry needs to use Hoffy and Fox in trades. Unfortunately, they have no place on the Cubs (I'm also against Hoffy coming off the bench too) but could easily be used as regulars on cost cutting teams.
I like Snyder and agree that he could be a better option than Hoffpauir off the bench. Snyder K's a ton but has good pop and decent speed. If given the chance, he might even be an above average starting outfielder.
Diamond was once part of DVD (Danks Volquez Diamond) who were considered the future of the Rangers. Danks and Volquez went on the success elsewhere ... hopefully Diamond will as well!