According to an update from the GM Meetings on FoxSports.com, Marlon Byrd is "likely to be targeted by the Cubs." The Cubs plan to move Kosuke Fukudome back to right field and find a true centerfielder ... once Milton Bradley is traded. Mike Cameron is one of the possible solutions, but the former Brewer is reportedly a back-up plan of a back-up plan at best.
FoxSports.com reported "Free agent Marlon Byrd is certain to draw their interest."
Jim Hendry was rumored to have a lot of interest in Marlon Byrd prior to the 2008 season ... and Reed Johnson falling into his lap.
Marlon Byrd turned 32 on August 30 and put together a career-year in Texas. Byrd set career highs in games played (146), doubles (43) and home runs (20) while compiling a .283/.329/.429/.808 line under hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.
Byrd played all three outfield spots in his final year with the Rangers (104 in center, 36 in left and six in right) and is reportedly seeking a multi-year contract.
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I hope not. Can't Hendry find an under 30 year old. This team needs to get younger, not older. The only way they should get older is if they deal bradly for an older than he is player.
In this free agent market Harden is the only 1 under 30 pretty much. He will have to get 1 via trade and Mr Rickett want to bulid the farm system not give it away.
Marlon Byrd, Jim Hendry must have something in his coffee.
This has Willie Wilson written all over it. Maybe Joe Wallis or Jerry Morales is available
It is really hard to find a good free agent under the age of 30. They are rare and expecting Hendry to find one is not really fair.
As far as this deal might go, it is not the worst thing they could do if it stays relatively cheap and short. Anything over 2 years would be a mistake as i am sure Byrd would want more. i could see something like 2 years, 10 - 12 million as being something the Cubs could be happy with. It is hard to envision much more
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/-/id/29376/espnchicago-mlb-chat
The above link was a great read of fan
questions directly to Bruce Levine today.
It sheds a lot of light on the Cubs.
2) According to the Tribune...Ricketts is advertising for a CFO (Chief Financial Officer) over the web at Cubs.com.
The new CFO will report directly to Crane Kenney.
I would assume the person would be incharge of restructuring Soriano/Fukodome/Bradley/Zambrano's
contracts so the Cubs might have some flexibility.
Anyone interested submit your resume and credentials immediately.
Sorry...no link...but applications can be submitted at Cubs.com under Community Relations section.
The Tribune noted your compensation would be the equivalent of an arbitration
eligible pitcher.
Thanks for posting, I will have highlights up later ... as well as other 'stuff'.
What a mess the Cubs are in!
You said it Neil! A total mess!
I would not mind Byrd, here's why:
1) It would have to be a maximum two year deal. It seems the next two years are lost for getting younger anyways. After the 2011 season we have some contracts coming off the books.
2) Yes he is coming off a career year, which is Hendry's forte, but where is he coming from and who was his hitting coach. Rudy will keep him on track!
3) He won't play everyday. Still giving Fuld/Colvin etc playing time.
4) He is versatile enough to play any of the three OF spots. That gives us Soriano in LF and for the other two spots you can have a rotation of Byrd/Fukudome/Fuld/Colvin/Snyder?. If Lou sticks to his playing the hot hitter this could work out well.
Once again...I posted the link wrong.
If you go to espnchicago.com...check Levines story...and underneath check "chat" and you'll come to a great read of questions and answers to Levine.
I'll try again....
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/29376/espnchicago-mlb-chat
Sorry for any inconvenience...but this is worth a read.
Marlon Byrd!!!
Isn't he basically Darryl Ward without the hippopotamus rear-end?
Seriously? I have always thought Hendry to be a complete dunce --- but this would be too much.
I really don't know what to say about all this. I'm almost speechless, because I called it with Hendry....he's the dumbest GM in the league dollar for dollar. You'd think with a $140 million payroll, there's absolutely no way you shouldn't make the playoffs. FURTHERMORE, you'd think that with a $120 million payroll (which is what we have at the moment), you wouldn't have five major holes to fill: 2B, CF, RF, 5th starter, and middle relief. You'd think with that payroll, you'd have maybe one hole to fill. But these aren't just upgrades we're trying to make, they're literally HOLES we need to fill. At 2B, we have a career back-up projected right now (Baker). In CF, we have a vacancy, and in RF, we're getting rid of Bradley, hoping Fukudome can move there, even though he's proven he's a platoon player at best. Then, we're losing Harden, and already have to cover for Lilly's surgery, and we have a major hole in the pen to fill in the middle as a bridge to set-up.
Right now, about the only guys we've been linked to to solve our holes are:
2B-Castillo, Figgins (though now, we've been rumored to be out of it)
CF-Byrd, Cameron, Wells (though not only is Wells' deal cost prohibitive, but the Jays don't want Bradley)
RF-Burrell
SP-Millwood, Chapman (though now we've been rumored to be out of it), McCarthy
RP-re-signing Grabow, Wagner
I might be missing someone, but as far as I know, those are the names being confirmed by trusted sources like Rosenthal and Miles.
Again, as I said yesterday, if we have options as crappy as those listed above, then I'd rather go with our own homegrown players. I'd rather go with a Castro, Gaub, Flaherty, W. Castillo, and even as far down as Burke and Hak Ju Lee. I'm just so sick and tired of the Cubs holding guys back simply to hold them back. I am a firm believer that if you produce, you should get promoted, and it should be according to team need. For instance, if we need a shortstop and leadoff hitter, and we have 2 of them (Castro and Lee) that absolutely dominated their competition, then we should promote them. If we have a need for a RF, and we have our own minor league Player of the Year that had an outstanding all around season, then I believe you give him the opportunity. If we have a need for power at 2B, and complained of a lack of lefty hitters, then Flaherty makes the grade there.....why are we not discussing all of this?!? Other teams would be willing to take this risk. Why aren't we? After all, we have money issues.
Aaron, you are going to love this ... the Cubs will target Byrd once the window is over on November 20 according to the Tribune.
Will have more ...
Also, good news on the minor league front. I exchanged emails with my contact with the Smokies, he raved about Starlin Castro and more about his defense than anything.
Aaron,
The Cub's minor leagues is devoid of ML talent right now. The very few who may make it to the bigs are not ready at this time, and the rest are like Fox and Hoffpauir: players with real problems at the ML level and unable to hold down a fulltime job.
Neil said it best: what a mess the Cubs are at this time!
here's my argument for that however...and don't get me wrong, I was a big supporter of bringing up Hoffpauir and Fox....BUT, these two guys, like Cedeno and Soto before them, didn't exactly tear up the lower rungs of our system, unlike Castro, Lee, Burke, and Flaherty. Castro has hit at every stop, which is quite unusual for Cubs prospects. When you have that sort of situation, you aggressively promote the guy, which I give the Cubs credit for doing so. HOWEVER, all too often, we see anamolies like Soto, Cedeno, Hoffpauir, and Fox, where they obliterate AAA pitching, then morph into quad-A players right before our eyes, and we wonder why...well, they have no track record, which is what I've always harped on with Hendry and Cubs management, especially in their free agent signings. But if you look at the root of the problem, the Cubs simply give up on players that are worthwhile to keep, instead promoting guys like Colvin, who have no value to the team, and are busts waiting to happen. Instead of aggressively promoting a player like Eric Hinske, the Cubs promote Dave Kelton. Hinske obliterated pitching while Kelton did NOT. The Cubs aggressively promoted Corey Patterson at a very young age, even though his peripheral offensive stats showed symptoms early on that he wouldn't be able to handle elevated competition (and he didn't). So, instead of promoting a deserving player like the older (23 year old at the time), Pete Fukuhara. Who? Exactly...only played in our system 3 years, then fell off the face of the earth...the Cubs promoted Patterson too early and he struggled mightily.
Fukuhara was more mature, and would've probably handled it better. While with Patterson at Lansing that year with Choi as well, he had the following line:
.311 avg, .383 OBP, .549 SLG, 73 hits, 19 doubles, 2 triples, 11 hr, 40 RBI, 7 SB and 24 walks to just 31 K's in only 235 AB's. Prior to that, he was at AZ rookie ball, and had a .286 avg, .384 OBP, .423 SLG, with 52 hits, 16 doubles, 3 hr, 36 RBI, 5 SB, and 25 walks to 23 K's in just 182 AB's. Now, his #'s fell off dramatically in high-A, but again, his track record prior to that suggested that perhaps he was injured. I've gone over an analysis of avg-OBP correlation, and how to determine if you're simply lucky, or just plain consistently good. If your avg and OBP are close together, then chances are, you were hitting into an awful lot of luck, so something like a .320 avg, .340 OBP might seem good, but in reality, it's not that great, because you were more than likely just hitting into luck. Whereas if you have a .290-.310 avg, and a .380-.400 OBP, you're consistently good. I did an extensive analysis last year regarding this topic, and I took many samples in my study, and I have no energy to re-type it all. Anyway, I guess my point is that this organization does a piss poor job of evaluating and promoting the right talent.
Do I think Lee or Castro are ready? ABSOLUTELY! Do I think they'll struggle if promoted now to MLB? ABSOLUTELY! But so did pretty much every star player out there when they were called up initially. For crying out loud, AROD was sent down by Piniella to be more disciplined at the plate and he came back as an all around better player. Who better to handle Castro than Piniella right now? Do I think Burke will struggle? ABSOLUTELY! But I also know he dealt with injuries, just as Dopirak did (and is now tearing up the Jays organization), and though he's just 21 years old, I believe he deserves a chance to showcase himself.
After all, please raise your hand if you think a Marlon Byrd could put up better stats than Kyler Burke, or if Fontenot can put up better stats than Flaherty....or if Theriot can put up better stats than Castro, or if Blanco can put up better stats than Hak Ju Lee, or if K Hill can put up better stats than W. Castillo, or if Fukudome could put up better stats than even our recent draftee, Brett Jackson....? crickets..........................................................................
Maybe I'm wrong...maybe some folks think that. If they do, I think they might be going off emotion rather than what stats actually tell us. Statistics almost always tell us what we don't know. We don't know what Derrek Lee will put up in 2010, but statistically speaking, we can bet on a season with somewhere around 28 hr, 90 RBI. For ARAM, you can bet it'll be about 30 hr, 105 RBI. For Milton Bradley, you can bet around 10 hr, 50 RBI. For Soriano, you can bet about 30 hr, 75 RBI. For Fontenot, we can bet on 9 hr, 40 RBI. For Fukudome, we can bet on around 10 hr, 55 RBI. For Theriot, we can bet on about 3 hr, 45 RBI.
So when we start to look at it from that perspective, you have to start thinking..."can I replace that from within?" If you're an awful team, then you almost have to look outside the organization to make improvements if you have a lot of Fukudome, Bradley, and Fontenot types clogging up your everyday lineup. In the Cubs case, they at least have Lee, ARAM, and Soriano with good to great offensive numbers that we can count on if they're all healthy. Therefore, if you have guys like Castro/Lee, Burke, Flaherty, W. Castillo, etc. waiting in the wings, you ask, "can they replace what I already have?"
Can Castro hit more than 3 hr, 45 RBI? most likely
Can Burke hit more than 10 hr, 50 RBI? most likely
Can Flaherty hit more than 9 hr, 40 RBI? most likely
See what I mean?
Aaron, not sure if you have had the chance to see Flaherty hit in person. I had behind home plate first row tickets when they came to the area to play Kane County when Rami was rehabbing. The kid has a beautiful swing and some nice pop. He jacked one to right center that night. He played second.
Brenly Jr was behind the plate, and have to say was not very impressed by him - could of been my buddy heckling him all night though.
But yes Flaherty will be good, he was still pretty lanky and I think he needs a little more time to fill out.
I love how people who want to push their agenda like to put out "those who don't agree with me must be thinking with emotion rather than their head". Your argument is VERY flawed for a few reasons.
1st off you are talking about promoting guys who spent last season in A ball or half the year in AA ball. Then trying to use those stats to justify a jump to MLB. There is no way you can say guy X hit .310 with 20 HR and 70 RBIs at Boise or Peoria and that means he can do it at Wrigley Field. There is a reason talent progresses in a stair step fashion. They deserve to come to camp, show their stuff and progress to the next level and if they continue their success they will continue to move up.
2nd struggling in the majors can just as easily have an adverse affect on players. Some might learn their holes by seeing better competition but other that struggle can get that in their heads and be ruined because of it. Let these kids work their way up through AA and maybe even AAA and should they continue that success, they will get to the majors. Especially with the young ages of some of these players a couple under 20. Its not like they are pushing their prime, let them work and develop their game.
3rd. Aggressively promoting players as you put it has a negative effect as well. If you are constantly pushing a kid through the system, it is much harder to spot his holes. Many times, rookies come in and start quickly because their is no book on them. Pitchers at that level don't know how to through at guy X and hitters don't know what kind of stuff pitcher X has. Moving a guy slowly will let the other players locate holes and as a result, they can be fixed in the lower levels.
You are talking about very young kids here that need to be brought along slowly. Castro is the main example. There is no reason to rush him. DO the Cubs need a middle infielder? Yeah, but am i willing to throw this kid in there opening day 2010? No Chance. He needs to start in AA and if his success continues he can move to AAA and be called up in September to get a taste before 2011. I understand why people want to get young and get these players in here, but just throwing in A level players is not the answer. Let them develop. Let them evolve. If they keep it up they will be here soon enough
hmmmmmmmmm.....I just had to respond to this one, because I put careful thought into this post, and I just knew someone like you would try to bash it...so, allow me to respond:
#1: Who did Burke, LeMahieu, B. Jackson, and Flaherty play against this year? Low-A guys. Who do you think they'll face next year? High-A guys, right? Where do you think most of their competition will be playing next season? If you said High-A, you win a cookie. Now, it's true that not everyone advances, but the point is true basically across the board from when you played Little League to when you play professional ball. You typically play with your age group in Little League, then you advance eventually to high school, where you typically play 4 age groups, right? freshman, sophomore, junior, and seniors can all be on varsity. Then, you advance to college or pro ball if you're lucky enough to be drafted. In college, the same principles apply where you play across 4 different age groups-freshman, sophomore, junior, and senior.
Guess what? When you go up to pro ball, the same principles hold true there, only in rookie ball, provided you went to college (not JuCo, so you were a 3rd-4th yr college player), you most likely are playing against talent over 4 age groups lower than you, meaning you have a better chance of domination. But after this is where I fundamentally disagree with you. If rookie ball consists primarily of 17-20 year olds, low-A and high-A consist of mainly 20-22 year olds, AA mainly 22-24, and AAA mainly 24 and up, then if you're around 20 years old, and you're dominating single-A competition, the fact is, those guys will remain with you at the upper levels, and you will continue to dominate them, provided you stay healthy, and receive the proper coaching to continue your success. It's why when I evaluate players, I look at their whole book of statistics rather than one point in time. I look at rookie ball, single-A, etc., and track their progression. Case in point is Ryan Flaherty.
In 58 games at Boise, he hit .297 avg, with a .369 OBP, and .511 SLG with 8 hr, 26 RBI
The following year, in 131 games at Peoria, he hit .276 avg, .344 OBP, and .470 SLG with 20 hr, 81 RBI
So, if I'm going to project this player in the future, I'm looking at his average of home runs per game over 162 games (a true MLB season). In Boise, his average would've been 22 hr over 162 games, and in Peoria, his power numbers were actually better, and would've averaged 25 hr, even though his slugging was down slightly.
For Starlin Castro, in the Dominican Summer League, in 60 games, he hit .299 avg, .371 OBP. The following year at rookie ball, in 51 games, he hit .311 avg, .364 OBP. This year in 127 games over 2 levels, he hit .299 avg, .342 OBP.
So, if I'm projecting Castro, I'm saying that he'll be about a .305-.306 avg hitter with an OBP in the .350-.360 range. And what he's doing, and what Burke did this year, and what Hak Ju Lee did becomes even more impressive when you consider the average age of their competition faced this year. So, the younger a player is at his level of minor leagues, and if he maintains his stats even with older and elevated competition, then you can almost guarantee he'll succeed at the MLB level. Why? Because with older/elevated competition, he doesn't appear to be rattled. You can look at guys like Corey Patterson, and see that as they ascended through the system, their competition rattled them, and they were unable to maintain their level of dominance that preceded at the lower levels.
#2:
Tell me the worst thing that can happen if a player doesn't succeed right away at the MLB level.....Demotion, right? But what happens if he handles it just fine? Then you get a jump start on acclimating them to the MLB level of competition, don't you?
#3:
By promoting players aggressively, you are NOT stunting your growth...you are ACCELERATING their growth. There is a distinct difference, and you seem to lean toward the negative angle, rather than see the positive---that they gain experience immediately. Tell me what happens to a rookie NFL QB....He takes his lumps, doesn't he. Aside from Tom Brady and maybe even Matt Ryan, most rookie QB's have a baptism by fire sort of on-the-job training that helps them grow, don't they. Recall Peyton Manning's early struggles? How about Brett Farvre? Recall Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Drew Brees struggling? Fact is, about 90% of rookie QB's struggle initially, but the only way they get better is by playing elevated competition....NOT by the practice squad, and NOT by backing up....and NOT by playing a developmental league first...though in some cases like Kurt Warner, it helped. What I'm trying to say is, how do you know they can't succeed at that age in the MLB? After all, many players like them have done it before at similar ages, without much minor league experience. Riddle me this.....how is it okay for Hendry to take a chance on David Patton, who never made it above class A, and suddenly found himself on an MLB roster, but it's not okay for him to let Castro, or Flaherty, or Burke make the similar jump? Why do other teams take similar chances in the Rule 5. Guys like Johan Santana, Hamilton, etc. are classic examples via Rule 5.
I just don't the argument for holding successful players like Flaherty, LeMahieu, Burke, and Castro back, if they've demonstrated a level of dominance across the board at each stop, even if they're just in low-A.
Aaron, Excellent post...
But let me play the Devil's Advocate.
While I agree with your basic premise...there are many exceptions. You have to take into account the manager and coaches at the major league level.
Are they going to be patient with a young guy and work with him when he
inevitably hits a slump...or are they going to bench him for exrended periods of time if he doesn't produce
immediately...case in point would be Felix Pie....He was bounced like a yoyo
all over the place...given contrary advice and coaching at different levels
with and intense spotlight put on the kid.
So when you push a kid through the minors...maturity and capability of handling adversity has to come into account...and you really cannot guage that in one or 2 seasons in the minors.
It is always dependent on the individual...and his makeup....In Castro's case...I'm not so worried about his baseball skills as I am concerned
with his acclimation to big city life
and playing in front of 40,000 people...
reporters/nightlife(he's not old enough
to drink) but there would be a ton of opportunities for other things to derail a 19 year old's focus.
Some guys can handle it...and some can't.
There are valid arguments on both sides of the coin.
But the key point I'm aligned with you
on...I'd rather see our young kids with potential out there get on-the-job-training then fading retreads.
But the orfanization should all be on the same page...in terms of development...and be willing to take the lumps and bumps along the way.
Currently...the Cubs are NOT set up that way.
Hey Aaron, that is best argument you've made. Objective and to the point. While I enjoy your opinions quite often, this is a more convincing argument.
Actually I think Byrd would be a great fit in Chicago. I have seen him play and he has fire, he is clutch and has a good glove as well as ok speed. Problem is he won't come cheap and maybe we should pass if its a long contract because of our OF situation.
My dream would be if we could get rid of Bradley and Fuku. Then the unmovable Soriano has a good year away from the leadoff spot [OFENSIVELY obviously because I would not dare ask him to be defensively sound in this lifetime. Then I give Chone Figgins and Byrd 2 years with vesting option contracts.
1-Fuld/Colvin
2-Chone Figgins
3-Aramis Ramirez
4-Derek Lee
5-Alfonso Soriasso
6-Marlon Byrd
7-Ryan Theriot
8-Geovanny Soto
9-Kevin Milwood
Aaron, I coming to that conclusion also.
There is no market whatsoever for Bradley...only a market to get rid of other bad contracts...If we have to eat the majority of his contract and take on
another bad contract...that only adds payroll and we end up with another crappy player to deal with.
We might as well pull a Detroit and release Bradley altogether...and just fill in from within...until the Cubs
can legitimately shed payroll and become flexible again.
If we go that route...Ricketts will have no choice but to find a new GM...and put Hendry on "The Ed Lynch Plan".
I could see the Cubs forced to move some of the arbitration eligible players and operate like a small market team for a few years.
There are enough outfielders in our system (starting with Snyder/Colvin/Deeds
to give a shot to.)
I learned the reason they don't consider
Fuld a full time player...is he has diabetes and is slow to heal...Yet, he makes a lot of sense as a backup.
We have a lot of candidates in the minors
for pitching...so bring them up and let them take their knocks.
Make a lot of minor trades to try and strengthen the system...and make the decision to develop...not buy a world series.
Bradley is not worth giving up additional prospects for so we can
get the likes of a Burrell in trade...
and then package him with more prospects to get God knows what.
Release him...release Hendry...and lets
start over.
Here is some interesting news to just hit MLBtraderumors.com.
The Tigers are looking for a cheaper better hitting option at catcher than Laird.
The Reds are in salary dumping mode.
First, the Tigers have an item we covet in Granderson. Is there some sort of deal we could package together say Granderson and Laird for Soto, Bradley, and mid level pitching prospect??
Second, the Reds will deal Brandon Phillips. Is he worth a top prospect plus others?
Absolutely to everything you just said. I'd do the Soto, Bradley, and a guy like Coleman/Stevens/Gaub/Mateo for Granderson and Laird. I'd also trade for the 28 yr old Phillips in a heartbeat too. He hit 20 hr, 90+RBI, 20+ SB last year. He's almost like Uggla, but with better defense, and slightly less power. But it's highly doubtful they trade him interdivision without asking for the world in return.
The Reds know they won't compete in the Central the next couple of years though, and I don't think it matters if they dealt inside. I wouldn't see the Cubs, Cards, or Brewers swapping with each other - but look at how many times we have swapped with Pittsburgh.
Plus they are in desperate to move money mode, which could make it a little bit easier as well. I think Vitters + could get something done there, maybe we could dump Miles on them and eat half of his salary.
mlbtraderumors is reporting that Cincy
wishes to reduce salary due to a 15%
decline in attendence.
te most intrigueing name that mentioned was Joey Votto could go in a package with a "bad contract".
What would we do with him? Let him sit for a year and pinch hit while we have Lee. I would take Phillips from Cincy maybe an Aaron Harang. Reading that article you sent though Suzy - he stated the Cubs have no payroll flexibility at all unless somebody is moved.
Or Votto can field left while Sori be asked to waive his no-trade for three underrated prospects (in another trade).
I love Fonzi, but the Cubs needs to clear this budget constraint. Or else the winter will drag on to July.
Mlbtraderumors.com says votto isn't going anywhere. I guess we can all take that for what its worth. We desperately need some team speed, and that's not coming with Byrd, Cameron, or whoever else Hendry wants to go out and overspend on. I live in the Bay area now and there was a story on the news the other night about Byrd taking vitamins from Balco (he was the only major leaguer last season). Im not saying anything about the guy's passion, or character. Im saying that being 32, coming off a career year in Texas (heard that one before!), combined with that makes me weary of going after a player that doesn't fill any of our pressing needs. If we're not going to make the changes needed to compete (at this point I don't see how we can), then play the kids and let them get the experience.
It said they were legal supplements, for what its worth, but how do you really know.