Monday it was the Starting Eight. Tuesday it was Lou Piniella's Pitching Staff and the third and final part on the CCO's look at the early projections for 2010 ... The Reserves and Rumored Additions.
The Cubs' off-season appears to be centered on where (and when) Jim Hendry will trade Milton Bradley ... as well as how much of the remaining two years and more than $21 million the Cubs will have to send to his new team.
Tampa remains the most likely destination for Pat Burrell. Reportedly Hendry will then try to trade Burrell for a player that fits the improvements the Cubs are looking to make this winter. Bruce Levine reiterated Tuesday that the Cubs have little to no money in the projected payroll for 2010 to make changes. Any deals would have to be dollar for dollar and 'Movin Milton' remains the Cubs first objective of the off-season.
Part Three: The Reserves and Rumored Additions
As mentioned in part one, if the 2010 campaign began today, the Cubs bench would likely consist of Mike Fontenot, Aaron Miles, Sam Fuld, Jake Fox and Koyie Hill. Andres Blanco is out of options and if Fontenot or Miles is on the roster Opening Day, Andres Blanco will be with another organization.
If Jake Fox is still with the Cubs, he should make the roster on Opening Day. Fox gives Piniella more options than Micah Hoffpauir.
Here are the projected numbers for 2010, along with actual numbers from 2009, for Lou Piniella's bench ...
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- wOBA - Weighted On Base Average
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
Bill James is projecting Koyie Hill to be a little less productive than in 2009 but if Geovany Soto rebounds next season Hill's offensive production will be a moot point. Mike Fontenot will bounce back according to Bill James' projections ... but nowhere near his 2008 campaign.
Aaron Miles has the most to prove, if he's still a Cub on Opening Day. Jake Fox and Sam Fuld are projected to be as productive at the plate as they were a year ago.
With two open spots on the Cubs' 40-man roster, the big league roster figures to have a few more additions and subtractions before the games actually count again. For now, Bill James is projecting similar performances from Andres Blanco and Micah Hoffpauir. Tyler Colvin could be a player that makes a difference in 2010. His "cup of coffee" last year did not give a true indication of what kind of player Colvin will be at the big league level.
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- wOBA - Weighted On Base Average
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
Most of the rumors surrounding the Cubs are focused on the player the Cubs could get in return for Milton Bradley. The Cubs are rumored to be interested in trading for Luis Castillo and possibly signing Marlon Byrd to play center. Byrd excelled in his final year in Texas under Rudy Jaramillo.
Then there is Curtis Granderson. Should the Cubs trade a couple of their top prospects for Granderson? Bill James is projecting a bounce-back season for the Chicago native ... like the rest of the players on this list, a new team, possibly a new league and a new home park will effect their projections for 2010.
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- wOBA - Weighted On Base Average
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
Reed Johnson is another player to keep an eye on this winter. If the Cubs clear the payroll they reportedly would like Johnson back in the fold.
While every player is important to a big league team, it is contributions from the bench and from unexpected sources that can make a difference during a season.
Chicago Cubs: Looking Forward to 2010
- Part One: The Starting Eight
- Part Two: The Pitching Staff
TWO WORDS....
CURTIS GRANDERSTON
GET IT DONE JIMBO, YOU OWE US!
Anyone have thoughts on who (if anyone) the Cubs might pick-up in the Rule V draft?
I see Lofgren as a possibility. They could try him in a relief role for 2010. He was once a top prospect as a starter.
Wimberly is an intriguing option as a utility IF if we could rid oursleves of Miles.
Kolby Clemens is intriguing since Soto should play almost everyday, but we likely want a better defensive C as a back-up.
Any thoughts? In my view, the Cubs should have protected Diamond as he seems like a better bet than any of the available players. The biggest advantage being a protected Diamond could start in AAA while any Rule V pick-up will need to play in the majors all season.
David, I have not looked at the list yet. With Patton, or as Lou referred to him, the Rule V Guy, I would be not be surprised if they did not draft any players this year.
On Diamond, remember he was on the Cubs' 40-man roster and they released him when they added Tyler Colvin to the 40-man in September. It will be interesting to see if any team drafts him after they all passed on him when the Cubs placed him on waivers.
Good, $ for $. Sit Bradley and use him off the bench. That'll really piss him off. Make an example of him.
Okay, sit little Milty and make him collect $22 for having a bad attitude. But here's a much better idea: Make JHendry pay for signing such a bum that everyone knew was a bum long, long before he was signed by the Cubs. FIRE JHENDRY.
Whatever the Cubs do about getting Granderson or anyone else, just pray they don't trade away minor leaguer Starlin Castro. He is a future superstar, if you ask me, and I really hope he'll be Cub when that happens.
I like Castro, but he is becoming more and more overrated by the day. If GM's are raving about him the way the media and fans are, I'm starting to think now is the time to deal him ...
Sure...c'mon. Let's deal a 19 year old SS with apparent significant upside for a guy like Granderson who can't hit left-handers worth a lick.
NO thank you.
I wouldn't deal him for Granderson. But if Castro is becoming so highly valued that he could be the centerpiece of a package for an all-star caliber major leaguer, I'd make the deal.
White Sox are at it again. I am telling you we should of jumped at the chance to sign Andruw Jones for league minimum to be a part time center fielder. Kenny Williams is either going to be a genius or a goat with the trades he has made dating back to the July trade deadline.
If Rios resembles his old self at all next year look out for the White Sox.
C Pierzynski/Flowers
1B Konerko
2B Beckhum/Teahen
SS Ramirez
3B Teahen/Beckhum
LF Quentin
CF Jones/Pods?
RF Rios
Rotation
Peavy
Buerhle
Danks
Floyd
Garcia
The only thing I see this team lacking is a lead off hitter if they dont resign Posednik, or if they do resign him then when he sits.
Ozzie's lineup is set for next year already. Kenny really only has to go get another outfielder/DH type or 1B/DH type guy. I wish we could be in that situation already.
While the $$$'s for Andruw Jones make sense ($500,000), I wouldn't use up a roster spot for him.
The guy is a strikeout machine ala Soriano. It's the last thing we need.
The White Sox are certainly adding a lot of age to their roster.
Let's go ahead and look at those ages for you Bryan.
C Pierzynski 32/Flowers 23
1B Konerko 33
2B Beckham 23
SS Ramirez 28
3B Teahen 28
LF Quentin 27
CF Posednik 33/Jones 32
RF Rios 28
Peavy 29
Buerhle 30
Danks 24
Floyd 26
Garcia 33
Somehow I don't see that as getting an older roster. I believe its the perfect mix of veterans and guys about to hit their prime. Lets not forget they signed Omar Vizquel as a utility guy to back up Beckham/Ramirez/and Teahen. Let me know if I am wrong about this team being "OLD". I could put up the Cubs roster next to it and you will see plainly that Kenny Williams is clearly light years difference the better GM in this town.
AMEN...AMEN!!!!!! 100 times AMEN to that my friend.
I have been saying this for years that Hendry is the dumbest GM in the league. All you have to do is look at his record for relievers signed during his tenure. theCubReporter had this info:
*****************************************
Since Jim Hendry was given the reins to the GM job in 2002, he's added through trade or free agency the following veteran bullpen lugnuts: Antonio Alfonseca, Mike Remlinger, Dave Veres, Mark Guthrie, Alan Benes, Phil Norton, Joe Borowoski, LaTroy Hawkins, Glendon Rusch, Cliff Bartosh, Scott Williamson, Chad Fox (twice), Bob Howry, Scott Eyre, Neal Cotts, Chad Gaudin, Jon Lieber, Luis Vizcaino, Aaron Heilman and lastly Grabow. I'd say for the most part, that's the ugly underbelly of MLB pitching although I know the Cubs are far from being alone in accumulating pitchers like these.
*****************************************
I agree with their statement that the Cubs are far from being alone in accumulating pitchers like that, but just look at those names for a second. I can't think of a single team that has struck out so many times that many years in a row, and still retained their GM...furthermore, I can't think of a single pitching coach that's retained his position with those players and the subsequent results. So, those were JUST the relievers....just think about all the position players he's signed/dealt for (this is just a sampling):
Damien Miller
Paul Bako
Ben Grieve
Mike DeFelice
Jody Gerut
Matt Lawton
Juan Pierre
Phil Nevin
Izturis
Craig Monroe
Omar Infante
Todd Walker
Todd Hollandsworth
Jeromy Burnitz
Jacque Jones
Alfonso Soriano (*this is borderline, because while I hated this signing at the time, and preferred Carlos Lee, nobody could've predicted Soriano would be THIS bad, not once hitting 80+RBI while with us)
Neifi Perez
Cliff Floyd
Jose Macias
Troy O'Leary
Joey Gathright
Tom Goodwin
Milton Bradley
Kosuke Fukudome (4 yrs $48 million for a Japanese player coming off elbow surgery, already 30+yrs old, and a no trade clause?!?!? WOW!!!!!!!)
It's quite clear that if you're an owner with half a brain, you don't want Jim Hendry anywhere near your money, which, perhaps, is why Ricketts has capped his spending to see his true worth, if he can assemble a competitive team via trading high priced veterans, and retaining and gaining useful prospects for the future. I would be willing to bet my house that if Hendry is the GM the whole year, and we aren't able to make some trades for young talent this offseason, we'll finish no higher than 3rd place next season.
Honestly, with an average age of 32 in our lineup, injuries likely to recur with ARAM and Soriano, a certain down season coming off Lee's 2nd best season in his career, and the enigma that is Fukudome...How do you win? Seriously, folks, those 4 are our "best" hitters in our lineup. After them, you have Baker/Fontenot, Theriot, Soto, and most likely Fuld/free agent like Marlon Byrd in CF.
I'm NOT trying to be negative...I'm being realistic. Our likely lineup for next season (age for next year in parentheses):
Theriot-SS (30)
Fukudome-RF (33)
Lee-1B (34)
ARAM-3B (32)
Soto-C (27)
Soriano-LF (34)
Byrd-CF (32) (Soto and Byrd might be interchangeable in this lineup for 5 and 7)
Baker-2B (29)
Hendry=incompentent
andruw jones is absolutely pitiful since he stopped juicing...
omar vizquel hasnt had a basehit in about 5 seasons and he was basically signed as a coach (dont they already have a gold glove latino SS to coach, hmmm...)
teahen is average at best (HR totals will go up at the cell as everyones do)
peavy will be decent but his era will be way up for sure next season based on his home/road splits, the fact that hes goin from the best pitchers park to one of the best hitters parks, and he is goin from the NL to the AL
floyd was an OK starter as a #4 guy and danks is a solid #3
buerhle is a workhorse and is quiet bout his business (unlike Z) but he is definitely overrated and his perfect game (Which was saved by wise) masked a very average season, as usual around a 4 era and double digit Losses...(he is basically an overhyped, barely better version of Ted Lilly
pierzynski had the highest BA hes had since like 2003 last year and is bout to be like a 33-34 year old catcher...look for a major dip back to the usual mid .200s
beckham cant play D.
Alexei has no discipline and routinely makes errors on easy plays (but has great range)
they will not sign podsednik.
for some reason i really think that Rios will have a nice bounceback year even though unnamed blue jays players said he has a losers mentality (much like they say about Adam Dunn) and that they could tell he stopped caring after the big contract...
Their bullpen is weak at best.
no more sox talk...they can keep andruw jones lol it wont matter when weve got Granderson...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING & GO CUBS GO!
What everyone is failing to realize about obtaining Granderson, is we can not add payroll. Unless the Tigers take on Bradley's money, we can not add on Granderson's money. That will not happen because the reason the Tigers are putting Granderson on the block in the first place is to reduce payroll. Granderson is a pipe dream.
I only bring up the Sox talk because of the GM aspect. Imagine what Kenny Williams could do if he had the resources the Cubs gave Hendry the past few years. Kenny is creative in his deals - how he got Peavy and Hendry did not. As much as I don't want the Cubs to be a losing team, it would be for the good of the team if they have a bad first half next year and Ricketts does what he should of done the minute the deal was finalized and axe the men that have been holding this team back.
dude... its no pipe dream and dont talk about hendry not getting creative...
in case you forgot, lemme remind you how
A. he orchestrated a gigantic three team trade for Nomar Garciaparra about an hour before the deadline
B. He found a way to get rid of Todd Hundley (eerily similar to Bradley) while adding two great pieces to a playoff run, Karros/Grudz
C. He found a diamond in the rough in Mark DeRosa (when everyone whined that he paid him way too much)
D. He signed a top five lefty starter over the past three years while on a hospital bed.
E. Choi for Derrek Lee
F. Aramis/Lofton for Jose Hernandez/Hill
G. Rich Harden for Sean Gallagher
Give the man credit where its due, he has been extremely creative in his time here and has been the most successful GM in Cubs history (since 1908 at least)
Dont forget the only reason we didnt have Peavy was cuz the Cubs walked away, not because we couldnt come up with the deal, and just you watch Clayton Richard become a very solid starter in SD.
Also dont give kenny too much credit, hes the same guy that is currently tryin to sign the 1990s allstar team (colon, vizquel, griffey, jones, kotsay, thome,...)
Hes the same guy who took on alex rios' contract right after they said it was one of the most untradeable contracts in baseball history...and rios repaid KW by hitting about .100 for the sox.
the same guy who emptied the farm on peavy, griffey, teahen, and tony pena over the past few seasons...
And theres plenty other reasons...so just stop
Alright sorry to do this but you forced the hand.
Here is a list of Hendry's major league trades since 02. I will put asterisks next to the ones the Cubs benefited from.
'02:
Darren Lewis for Chad Hermansen
Tom Gordon for Ross Rohlicek and 2 PTBNL
Jeff Fassero for 2 PTBNL
Bill Mueller and cash for Jeff Verplancke
*Dave Noyce and Gary Johnson for Damien Miller
*Ryan Gripp for Paul Bako
*Todd Hundley and Hermansen for Karros and Grudz
03: Hendry's only good year for trading!!
*Bellhorn for Hernandez (this is only a positive because Hernandez was used to acquire Ramirez
**Hernandez/Bruback/Hill for Lofton/Ramirez
Jason Fransz and Cash for Glanville
*Ray Sadler for Randall Simon
*Enmanuel Ramires for Womack
Phil Norton for John Koronka
04:
**Choi for Lee
Damien Miller and Cash for Barrett this is a wash
Wilton Chavez for Jose Macias
Juan Cruz and Steve Smyth for Pratt/Richard Lewis
Ricky Gutierrez for PTBNL
Brendan Harris/Gonzalez/Beltran/Justin Jones for Nomar Garciaparra yes it was huge at the time but Garciaparra did nothing for us and Harris had some decent years for the Twins
Andy Pratt and cash for Ben Grieve
05:
Sosa and cash for Fontenot/Hairston/Crouthers
Farnsworth for Novoa/Moore/Flowers
Hawkins for Aardsma/Williams
Dubois/Gerut
Gerut and cash for Lawton
Remlinger and cash for Astacio
*Lawton for Berg
Hollandsworth for Blackworth/Burrows
06:
Mitre/Nolasco/Pinto for Pierre
Patterson for Spears/Carlos Perez
Wellemeyer for Mccormack for Holdzkom
Koronka and Cash for Bynum
*Hairston for Nevin and Cash
Walker for Ceda
Heres one of his best deals ever -
Greg Maddux for Izturis haha
Nevin and Cash for Harben
Aardsma and Vasquez for Cotts
*Bynum for Hart
Another good one
Josh Hamilton for cash
07:
*Barrett and cash for Kyler Burke/Bowen (this could be good for the future if Burke makes it)
*Bowen and Blevins for Kendall
*Izturis for Cash - at least we got something for Maddux
Rapada for Monroe
Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore for Traschel
Jacque Jones for Omar Infante
Monroe for PTBNL
Ohman/Infante for Ascanio
I will stop there since the past two years have been well documented. What's that about a 30% success rate. And this man still has a job???
Those trades JHendry made were simply teams dumping contracts for any piece of junk they'd receive in return. Hendry had the advantage of having a big checkbook. He hasn't developed minor leaguers. He has simply paid big bucks for other team's proven major leaguers, often players that are aging and in decline, or just off the juice and in serious decline (Sorry--oh--no??)
BoSox wanted to dump an attitude full of "juice": Garciappara.
LA wanted out from 2 bad contracts which needed a change of scenery, and Hundley badly needed a change, so it was easy. He didn't ace LA out of anything more than Milton Bradley will be a steal for the next team that gets him should the Cubs pay the bill. And then he wasn't smart enough to keep Grundzalonick.
Choi for Lee: salary dump trade.
Aram & Lofton for Hernandez & Hill: salary dump by Pittsburgh.
Harden for Gallagher, Patterson, and 2 others = a salary dump by As.
So please do not think that JHendry is a great talent evaluator. He was able to take on big contracts for minor leaguers simply because their original teams could not afford them. They all had PROVEN that they could play MLB. JHendry simply bought players that their teams could not afford.
TALENT EVALUATION is where JHendry fails. Why did he get rid of Lofton? The guy was the best leadoff man the Cubs have had in years before or since. Why dump Grundy? He could hit and field. Maybe that's why; I dunno. Why get rid of Aardsma? He could pitch. It was obvious to me. Why dump DeRosa? It was obvious to me that the bottom half of the Cubs' order was the reason the Cubs won in 2008. But JHendry couldn't see that.
Back JHendry all you want, but the facts are these: he has bankrupted the Cubs minor league system. He has filled the current lineup with untradeable, unproductive players that must remain with the Cubs for the next several years. He has painted the Cubs in a corner that leaves them unable to improve a team that is in decline. He has placed them in a near impossible situation. And now he can't simply throw one hundred million dollars or more at the problems and come up with a very temporary solution.
SO why has he got even one supporter? I don't understand . . . .
Gotta LOVE KEEEEEENNNY Williams, don't ya? I mean, stealing Rios for that mere $69 million contract. JHendry paid Sorry-oh-no for $138 million dollar bills, so ya figure Keeeenny saved the Sox $68 million--and Rios can catch the ball, too.
Omar Vizquel: can he, at age 42, outfield Theriot or not?
Andrew Jones: this man has it all: attitude, power, batting average--and it is all bad. Why even Texas signed him last year was puzzling to me. Maybe Andy has found a new supplier for the stuff--and it can't be found in any known test now.
Pods: can't run anymore; never could hit for power. And he's got a case of "Sorry-oh-no glove" to boot. I'm surprised Keeeeenny didn't resign him. Shocking.
Yes, Keeeenny is crazy, but not quite as crazy as Jimmy Eugene Hendry. Not quite.
Hey, don't undervalue Rios. He hit .199, 3 HR, and 9 RBI in 146 AB for the Sox.
That's a better signing that Aaron Miles, who in 157 AB hit .185 with 0 HR and 5 RBI.
Both are potential all-stars for AAA.
I'm too rough on Rios. He--He could bounce back this year.
aight...this is just ridiculous... salary dump trades are STILL great trades...to be able to fleece a team for a salary dump without giving up a guy who has gone on to become a star is impressive in itself...For instance, the RedSox got Beckett but had to give up Hanley Ramirez..the Cubs got Aram, Lee, Harden, Grudz,Nomar, etc. and gave up NOTHING...that is a huge plus
ripsnorter, if you really wanna break Hendry's success down year by year then do it right...
2003: 88-74 NL Central Champs, NLCS (you know the story)
2004: 89-73 Blew the season in the last week (still a better record than 03)
2005: 79-83
2006: 66-96 worst record in NL
2007: 85-77 Worst to First in one season NL Central Champs
2008: 97-64 NL Central Champs, Best record in the NL, (first EVER back to back division titles) again, we all know the story
2009: 83-79 Injuries and underperformance but still in 1st place as late as August.
So lets break that down, thats a winning record 5 of his 7 seasons (best mark by any Cubs GM
Thats the first EVER back to back division titles including 3 of the 7 years (shoulda added a wildcard to the mix but 04 was blown even though on paper Hendry's team was an absolute powerhouse)
What i will say is that its great that us Cubs fans are finally not settling to just be above .500 although to win it all (which we will soon) the main thing is to maintain success year in, year out which Hendry has done.
And to whoever made a comment about vizquel and Theriot, you better be joking...
And as far as homegrown talent, true it isnt the best in the MLB but we have brought up or gotten us
Ryan Theriot
Carlos Zambrano (allstar)
Carlos Marmol (allstar)
Geovany Soto (allstar, ROY)
Randy Wells (top 5 ROY voting)
Sean Marshall
Esmailin Caridad
Angel Guzman
Sam Fuld
Jake Fox
Derrek Lee (Choi)
Aramis Ramirez (bobby hill)
Rich Harden (sean gallagher)
John Grabow (jose ascanio)
Matt Clement (Dontrelle)
The list goes on...
O ya and thats not to mention that our system is now more stocked than it has been in recent history with guys like Vitters, Castro, Carpenter, Cashner, Castillo, Jay Jackson, Kuk(korean dude), Berg, Atkins, etc....