Monday it was the Starting Eight, next up on the CCO's look at the early projections for 2010 ... Lou Piniella's pitching staff. Not only will the starting rotation for the 2010 version of the Chicago Cubs have a couple of changes, the Cubs' pen appears to be headed for another off-season overhaul.
Part Two: The Pitching Staff
Reportedly Rich Harden will not be back or offered arbitration then there is Ted Lilly's shoulder surgery. Lilly will begin the season on the DL and is expected to return at some point in late April. Jim Hendry has publicly stated that he will use internal options to fill Lilly's void ... but again, the Cubs must have a backup plan in case (which is very likely) Lilly's return is delayed into May or June
Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster are expected to anchor the staff but with Ted Lilly on the shelf the Cubs will begin the year without their most reliable pitcher since the break in 2008. Randy Wells did an excellent job in 2009. From his health, the Cubs only starter not to spend time on the DL, to his performance, Wells put together an tremendous first year. But right now, Randy Wells should be competing for a fourth or fifth spot on a team expected to compete for a division crown ... not to be depended on as a third starter in the team's rotation.
Here are the projected numbers for 2010, along with actual numbers from 2009, for Lou Piniella's starting rotation.
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings
- BB/9 - Walks per 9 Innings
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- WHIP - Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitches
- FIP - Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
Bill James is projecting Carlos Zambrano to post three more wins next season and Ryan Dempster to pretty much break even ... one more win and one more loss. Ted Lilly and Randy Wells are projected to take a couple of steps back next season.
According to the projections, Jeff Samardzija (2), Sean Marshall (9) and Tom Gorzelanny (14) will make 25 starts next season.
The eight pitchers above accounted for 52 of the Cubs 83 wins in 2009 (three of Gorzelanny's wins came in a Pirates' uniform). Bill James is predicting the same eight pitchers to post at least 56 wins in 2010.
Lou Piniella figures to begin 2010 with a very different bullpen than he had for a majority of 2009 ... and it could be a very young and inexperienced pen. Gone is Kevin Gregg, he is not expected to return and Carlos Marmol will anchor the pen as the Cubs' closer. John Grabow figures to be the elder statesman of the bullpen at the beginning of 2010.
(Click on Image to Enlarge)
- K/9 - Strikeouts per 9 Innings
- BB/9 - Walks per 9 Innings
- BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
- WHIP - Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitches
- FIP - Fielder Independent Pitching on an ERA scale
Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com
Other than Carlos Marmol, the projections for 2010 do not look favorable but at the same time with all of the young arms no one is sure how they will perform. John Gaub and Blake Parker figure to play a roll with the big league team at some point next year.
Bill James is projecting Carlos Marmol, John Grabow, Angel Guzman and Esmailin Caridad to post at least 14 wins.
While many are focused on the Cubs improving their offense this winter, the pitching staff has a lot of question marks and inexperience ... and could be a couple of arms away from having a solid staff.
Coming Soon:
- Part Three: The Reserves and Rumored Additions
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I say we offer Rich Harden arbitration or resign him to a contract with incentives.Our rotation look very shaky right now and our bullpen will be young, so we are going to need our starters to be much better.
Hey Ronald. I think what management is afraid of is this: Even if we resign Harden and sign to him a incentive-laiden contract, and he only makes 10 starts the whole year, that totally screws us, especially with Harden's history. I still don't think they are seeing last year as "He's all better".
That being said, it does make me wonder about how many times Harden may have said "I'm good to go" and management said "No, no, no, we'll let you rest." effectively babying him.. What's more, shutting him down early at the end of the year really doesn't make that much sense now if we weren't going to resign him. What were we protecting?
The plot thickens...
If Ted Lilly loses Spring Training, and April and May, 12 wins is pretty optimistic.
My thinking is that we are going to have to wait a few weeks until the Winter meetings are over. That way we'll have a better idea what the roster will look like. But I agree with Neil: we're a couple of arms short unless someone from within steps up like Randy Wells did last year.
I don't think Marshall is a ML starter. I have zero confidence in Smardzija. I have little confidence in Gorzalanny. But it could be that Gorzalanny steps up and wins 12 games for us. And Stevens and Cotts and Patton won't even make the team.
Heilman thought he was a ML starter, too.
So any you guys have any solutions for our pitching staff problems.
First and foremost, get a new pitching coach.
Agreed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Notice how many people are cautiously optimistic about the offense despite the holes and the what-ifs? The thing they point to in their analysis is Rudy Jaramillo. Replacing Rothschild with a Maddux, or a Duncan and that optimism comes to the pitching side. Not gonna happen with old Jimbo at the helm, so maybe next year.
This is encouraging to read on the Cubs success in the Arizona Fall League.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-24-arizona-base-nov24,0,5696157.story
Whether it's Castro, Vitters, Cashner, Parker, etc, at some point (hopefully soon) these youngsters need to play regularly (!) at the ML level.
Ding dong the bullpen's dead
the bullpen's dead the bullpen's dead
Ding dong the crappy bullpen's dead
OK What do we do to fix it?
Trades--Brandon McCarthy (Tex) is a promising starter and should be able to be had for a resonable price. Once again with the Rangers, package something for Davis and it looks real pretty. Marshall, Stevens, Colvin Atkins... Not really sure what Texas needs... but I do know it has to be inexpensive.
In House--Thomas Diamond. Not many people have mentioned his named on here, but I think he is the one who pulls a Wells and emerges next year. Mark it dowm, early prediction.
I see Atkins as a trade piece with Cashner a Bullpen arm but not this year.
Free Agency--If, and it is a big if, Hendry can create a tiny bit of wiggle room space, he may be able to fit in a Mike Gonzales/Rafael Soriano type but that is on the far end of the likelihood spectrum. I personally would rather see one of them as compared to spending the money on Marlon Byrd or god forbid Mike Cameron. If we have the money to have them on the radar, then one of two dynamic lights out relievers should be in the mix too. Frees up Trading a piece like Caridad in the next subject...
And to Suzy's EY deal. Take Castro out of that trade and you have something. I know mortgaging some of the farm is scary especially when you are talking about a prospect BUT...ask yourself this...Right now does this team need speed? Right now does this team need to get younger? Right now does the D need to improve up the middle? And right now do we need a 2B? And do you really want another expensive aging veteran in that spot?
The answer to all of those questions are Eric Young Jr. And he can be had because he is visibly blocked in Colorado. Much like Vitters is here.
It's getting fun...
Happy Turkey Day to the classy faithful!
In a previous post I saw Suzy project Eric JR. with 20-30 HR power along with his crazy SB abilities...I'm not sure where she got this, but if it is in fact a reasonable projection, why would you claim Castro is untouchable? You wouldn't trade a 19 year old prospect for a 2Bman that projects to being the next Utley with more speed!?
I don't know enough about Young Jr. so I am not going to speculate. I just know that he has been quite lusted over for the last 6 months here.
Did anyone else read the quote from BP's top minor league specialist? In Kaplan's column on Granderson he said:
"Castro is a good prospect with excellent skills but for people to think he is on the verge of super stardom is ludicrous," Goldstein said. "He has good athletic ability, a solid bat but limited power, and to hear him compared by some observers to Hanley Ramirez is nuts." He also said he was the "most over-hyped prospect he had seen in awhile".
What does anyone/everyone think about that? I take it all with a grain of salt, BP is not infallible, but I think they have a pretty good idea of how it all works...better than the Cubs' scouts.
If he really is the "most over-hyped" prospect why not get some freeking return for him now? Everyone likes to moan about Patterson and Pie and how the Cubs ruined them and then got nothing for it, well...i'd hate to see it happen again.
I am NOT saying that it will. I want this kid, Castro, to be the starting SS for a long time in the future. I'm just tossing out arguments, I guess.
The main reason I throw out Castro, not because I believe he is all worldly, is simply with EY and Castro we have a solid defensive core up the middle who is relatively inexpensive, and young.
Now, if I do not have a choice and the Rockies will only take Castro over Vitters, then OK. Because there are others coming (Hak Ju Lee, Lemahieu) who can fill SS.
I am not too sure on EY's power numbers, personally if he did project at those numbers that would be a HUGE bonus. I look to him more for OBP, Defense, and sick sick sick speed. But yes at this point I would not hold back much of anything with the exception of Marmol for him.
Vitters/Castro, Marshall, Atkins/Smardjia should do it.
How about Theriot, Marshall, Hoffpauer and perhaps Colvin for EY Jr?
I would love seeing some youth in Castro and EY at SS/2B for years to come.
This is why that Milton Bradley for Kevin Millwood deal keeps looking better and better. You exchange salaries, and rid yourself of the part the Cubs are trying to get rid of. Sure, you are going to overpay for Kevin Millwood but at least you'd be overpaying for a healthy pitcher that will make quality starts and give you 30+ starts and 175-200 innings per year instead of overpaying for an oft injured, out of place, underperforming outfielder.
Couple of points replying to a few of you.
J-Train the problem with that deal is the Rangers are now reluctant to move Millwood. So unless we send something else(a close to major league pitcher) in addition to Bradley, its not going to happen.
JC: The difference this time around with Castro coming up, is that Pie and Patterson came up with our previous coaching staff, Baker/Perry/etc. The real difference maker is that we have Rudy in house now - and I am not only will have impact on the hitters in our lineup, but he will have Lou's ear. So, Castro's progress will be seen by Rudy - thus Rudy influencing Lou to get him up and playing.
Cloy: I agree Diamond is the sleeper in all this. If not as a starter then a good arm out of the pen.
Ronald: While the big boys(Yanks/Red Sox/Angels) battle it out for Halladay - Hendry should be on the sidelines stealing away Josh Johnson from the Marlins. The Marlins wanted to sign him long term this offseason - but Johnson has said he won't be staying in Florida.
How about a deal like we send Soto, Vitters, Marshall, Carpenter/Jackson, and Lee(ss) for Paulino and Johnson?
Bryan: It's going to take more than role players to get EY. The Rockies could take Fox and pitching prospects. Fox fills their need for a backup right handed hitting corner guy. Theriot would not have a position on that team either. They already have Tulowitzki at short, Ian Stewart at third, and Barmes at second.
Just a quick post...I need to set the record straight.
I need to apologize for getting carried away on EYJr....based on stats...we cannot project the 20 -30 HR power numbers...more like 7-10 to begin with.
I read an article months ago by a scout
that said he could develop that type of
power over time...much like Sandberg unexpectedly did when he first came to the Cubs...Sandberg was not considered a power hitter at first.
This stuck in my head.
But what EYJr brings to the table is still formidable.
318 stolen bases over 6 seasons of pro ball. That's an AVERAGE of 52 sb per year.
He is the elusive lead-off hitter we've been seeking since forever.
He averages 10 to 11 TRIPLES per year to give you an indication of his speed...and consistantly hovers around .300 in the minor leagues...last year .299. The year before .290 in AA.
Heres his stats from last year in AAA:
119 games played
472 ABs
118 Runs scored
141 hits
21 2b
10 3b
7 Hr
43 RBI's
56 walks
79 ko's
58 sb
14 cs
.387 OBP
.430 SLG
.299 AVE
.817 OPS
17 errors...yep...but he's getting a lot better.
Intangible...been around pro baseball
all his life with his all-star dad.
Considered a good arm at second...and just a hair below average in center...
he prefers 2nd but the Rockies work him at both 2nd and outfield.
So EY Jr cannot do it all...but as Jason Giambi said..."This kid has the opportunity to be a major impact player."
Think Bobby Dernier plus for 6 or 7 years...But at 2nd base.
I agree that EY Jr. would be a great acquisition for the Cubs. Earlier this winter I though the Rockies might make him available, but from what I have read more recently, it sounds like EY is not available (though I suppose every player is available if a team is willing to overpay). The Rockies see him as a supersub type player who could play almost everyday by filling in at IF and OF positions. A package of marginal prospects and major league spare parts isn't going to do it (i.e. forget about Fax, Hoffpauir, Marshall, Fontenot and the like). SuzyS is right in that it will likely take at least a top tier prospect to land EY Jr.
Agreed... so Overwhelm them with a Vitters and an Atkins, toss in Fox and you have a deal.