Chicago Cubs: Looking Forward to 2010

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With two weeks to go before the winter meetings in Indianapolis there are more rumors surrounding the Chicago Cubs than actual news, which is to be expected. With the 2010 payroll reportedly set very close to the amount that was paid to field the disappointing 2009 squad (between $140 and $150 million), most of the changes Jim Hendry is expected to make will come from moving players and their contracts.

With a majority of the roster for next season set due to large contracts and no-trade clauses, the CCO will take a look at early projections of the Cubs' roster for 2010 over the next three days.

Part One: The Starting Eight

If Opening Day was tomorrow, which thankfully it is not, it is pretty easy to look at the Cubs' 40-man roster (which currently stands at 38 players) and see how the active 25-man roster would be constructed.

Pitchers: Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, Tom Gorzelanny, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol, John Grabow, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Esmailin Caridad, Justin Berg and Jeff Stevens

Catchers: Geovany Soto and Koyie Hill

Infielders: Derrek Lee, Jeff Baker, Ryan Theriot, Aramis Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Aaron Miles and Jake Fox

Outfielders: Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Milton Bradley and Sam Fuld

Ted Lilly will begin next season on the DL.

With that said, Milton Bradley remains on the Cubs' roster and until he is traded must be figured into the equation. Jim Hendry reportedly does not want to send a lot of money with Bradley if he is traded and with Rudy Jaramillo under contract, Bradley could be back with the Cubs if Hendry does not find the right deal ...

Here are the projected numbers for 2010, along with actual numbers from 2009, for Lou Piniella's starting eight.

2010projections.jpg
(Click on Image to Enlarge)

  • ISO - Isolated Power (SLG-BA)
  • BABIP - Batting Average on Balls in Play
  • wOBA - Weighted On Base Average

Full Projections from Fangraphs.com
Stat Explanations from Fangraphs.com

While Bill James projects RBI for the 2010 season, runs batted in are a team-driven stat and are not a good indication of individual production.

Granted with the way the Cubs' roster is currently constructed Jeff Baker figures to split time with Mike Fontenot at second base and fill in from time-to-time for Aramis Ramirez. Kosuke Fukudome, on the other hand, would be platooned with Sam Fuld in center. Then there is Aaron Miles and Andres Blanco ...

Andres Blanco is out of options and must remain on the Cubs active roster. The chance of Blanco clearing waivers is slim-to-none at this point. Aaron Miles had one of the worst seasons in recent memory, and if not traded, he must earn a spot in spring training ... despite the fact he is owed $2.7 million next year. The Cubs can no longer carry a player that cannot help either in the field or at the plate.

The Cubs' offense should improve in 2010 with the addition of Aramis Ramirez for another 43 games, based on the projected numbers. Bill James also expects Alfonso Soriano to have a much-better year and for Geovany Soto to bounce back and put up numbers close to his Rookie of the Year campaign. With just improvements from those three players, the Cubs should score more runs ... even with the projected drop in production from Derrek Lee.

The Cubs scored 855 runs in 2008 and 707 in 2009 ... 12th in the National League.

Runs scored from the Starting Eight in 2009 - 456
Projected runs scored from the Starting Eight in 2010 - 592


Coming Soon:

  • Part Two: The Pitching Staff
  • Part Three: The Reserves and Rumored Additions

  • daverj

    And then also trade Fontenot and Fox for Albert Pujols to play 1B and trade Marshall, Miles and Jay Jackson for Tim Lincecum to form a nice 1,2 punch with Halladay.

  • jason kremke

    I think trade Zambrano too the mets for stortstop Jose Reyes,and secondbasemen Luis Casino,and Carlos Baltron. Then go trade for Cortis Graderson from the tigers, then go get Roy Hallioday from the bluejays. Then go sign Jose or his brother Bengia for a backup catcher. Then you get Chone Figgins from the angels too backup am. at third base.

  • pete187



    Has anyone given thought to Jose Lopez at 2B? Not great defense but he brings another stick to the lineup. I like him better than Fontenot or Baker. Not sure what it would cost to get him but read he may be available.

  • John_CC

    I like Jose Lopez and have mentioned him more than once. He's only 24-25 and has shown good hitting ability. I imagine him developing into a .280/25+ when fully mature. Not too flashy with the glove, and too fast. But never strikes out either.

  • SuzyS

    Woody,

    I agree that Castro and other top prospects should only be in play for very few...and Granderson is not one of them.

    I wish every trade we did included a Matt Clement as a throw in...he was pretty good for a few years...But overall...I agree with you in trading with Florida.

    My best guess as to what's up Hendry's sleeve is Turkey gravy.



    But yes, something is up...he's indicated enthusiasm for the winter meetings...and that's scary.



    Josh Johnson is a stud...but Florida

    would be silly to trade him now...they should keep him this year and trade him

    either at the deadline or next off season.



    Have a good Holiday I'm signing off now.

  • woody34

    Hendry has something up his sleeve, I believe that has been established. I just hope he is not trading away the farm to do it. There are not too many players out there that I would give up too much of the future for.



    Pujols is going to command a long term deal and he will be old like Soriano when that contract ends.



    Hanley Ramirez is one of the few that I would trade Castro for, and only Hanley. He is a the elite shortstop in the league and young enough to not hurt our future.



    Halladay would be close, but he is 31. I don't believe it would be reasonable to trade away all of our top prospects to acquire him. He can still be the ace on any team for another 3 maybe 4 years tops. He will be looking for a 5 year deal next offseason unless he signs an extension to the team he is traded.



    The one sleeper that would be worth trading away multi top prospects for would be Josh Johnson. He is still young and is under team control for a couple more seasons. A 5 year extension could be done during that time.



    The problem with trading to Florida is they always require top prospects when dumping future huge payroll guys. Hendry's trade history has not been very successful for the Cubs. Yes we robbed them when we got Lee for Choi, but the Gregg. Pierre, and Clement trades did not work out for us in the long run. Florida knows how to rape teams like no other.



    It almost seems like Hendry only knows how to trade with the Pirates effectively. There just are no options to help out the Cubs in Pittsburgh anymore - so I bet you Hendry is probably soiling himself realizing that right now. Jimmy better become creative pretty quick or he will be working in that Pirates organization rather soon!

  • SuzyS

    Woody,

    1rst, Atkins is a non-tender candidate...he earned 7.5 mill last year and with Arb this year could earn more.

    That's a lot for a guy that trended to the mendoza line even if his power numbers looked good....He played 30 some games at 2nd last year and over 70 at third.



    2nd...From the Rockies.com mailbag:

    "Colorado does not HAVE to trade Hawpe.

    They can listen to offers and afford to sell high. The teams needs are right handed OF...someone like a right handed

    Carlos Gonzales. The other need is a 7th

    inning set-up man."



    Hawpe...at 10 mill in 2010 and an 11 mill club option in 2011 (which he can void if traded).



    Ideally, The Rockies would like the

    hitter to be able to back up 1rst/3rd

    and the corner OF spots.



    I don't see Bradley as their ideal candidate...but it's not inconceivable.

    The Cubs would also have to keep Fuko

    in center if we acquired Hawpe.



    For that trade to happen it would take:

    A) A sales Job by Hendry????

    B) A package of Bradley...7th inning reliever...(pick one of our current guys

    maybe Caridad?) cash and probably a prospect...(no Atkins included because he can be had cheaper as a free agent.



    The price is high because the Rockies don't have to trade Hawpe...and everyone knows about Bradley.



    Again, my preferred trade with Colorado is for EY Jr....PCL player of the year.



    Because EY is young...will solve 2nd for years to come...can also play center or RF I'm willing to give Colorado almost any package they want...within reason.



    Reasonable would be:



    Pick one: Castro or Vitters



    Their choice of Caridad/Gaub/Marshall/

    Gorzelanny/Guzman. (One)



    Carpenter/Coleman/Jackson (One)



    Probably another prospect rated a little lower.



    The question here is do you want an all-star-to-be 2nd baseman or ss.

  • woody34

    Suzy,

    Here is the one key to Bradley that everyone in the majors now knows about him. He is a right handed batter!!! Not a switch hitter. Somebody fooled him at an early age and told him he could hit from the left side, hmm sounds familiar for the Cubs in that we see it in Zambrano also.



    Doesn't it seem crazy to trade a boatload of prospects for a Prospect? How many minor league players of the year have turned out to be busts? Quite a few. So, yes EY Jr would be nice to have, but if we could get by in the meantime with Theriot sliding over to second when Castro comes up until Lee or Flaherty are ready I would prefer that to trading away a Castro or Vitters and then some for a "prospect".



    Now if that second baseman's name was Chase Utley, then I would reconsider.

  • SuzyS

    I know Bradley is a rh hitter...but he's not that flexible at multi- positions...and as always...there's the second year of his contract and $$$ to consider.



    The prospect for prospect issue is valid

    with most prospects. EY had 58 stolen bases last year...and has produced at all levels.



    At the major league level he should be a consistant .280-.300 ave/20-30 HRs/and 30 -40 sb every year...with excellent defense at key positions.



    He's potentially a cornerstone player for a championship team. I think he is that good...and worth every effort to acquire him.



    I'm not sold on Vitters yet...and would substitute him for Castro in a heartbeat.

    But I'm not sure it would get it done.



    We are possibly talking an infield that

    might rival "Tinkers to Evers to Chance"

    Castro to EYJr...to ???



    It would be fun to watch.



    Knowing JH...I look forward to Theriot.



  • JoePepitone

    SuzyS, I liked how you ended your comment -- it was almost poetic. In fact, with a little rearrangement, the last three lines are almost begging to be a haiku:



    Knowing JH...I

    look forward to Theriot.

    Not fun to watch that.

  • woody34

    There's a team out there that wants to get rid of a couple of contracts, yet there has been no talk of the Cubs trading with them. I know we have discussed his name as potential right fielder for us, but I wonder what it would take to trade Bradley to Colorado, in return we get Atkins as a backup corner infielder, and Brad Hawpe?



    If Atkins does not want to be a back up for a team that can guarantee he will get playing time with Rami's history, and Lee's neck problems, then we spin him to somebody looking for a third baseman (i.e. Minnesota or Philly.) Does anyone know if he can play second base? I know Stewart could play either position for the Rockies, but if Atkins can play second base we can platoon him and Baker there and concentrate on upgrading the pitching staff. Colorado would be an ideal spot for Bradley - out of the spotlight. We instantly upgrade right field with the addition of Hawpe.

  • Good luck to Suzy from the fairly new guy here. I just want to say that this Cubs roster is essentially the same one that came out last year and flopped. Another year older, Lilly on the DL, not even the hope of Harden, and Milton is still infesting anything that is believed to be team-related.

  • cubs1967

    anyone notice on the cubs.com website; the ricketts family has decided "billboards" should go in the back of the leftfield bleachers which will block the view of the "budweiser building(now the horseshoe casino bldg.)?? effectively blocking the ad.

    per the article. this is being done as the cubs should coup the revenue; not the bldg owner. makes sense to me; although sounds like a lawsuit from the bldg owner who paid a mint for the bldg w/ the thought of the ad revenue paying the mortgage.....ouch.

    personally, if this makes more money for the cubs so be it. the rooftop owners were "stealing" all those yrs before the agreements so is the "bud" bldg owner.

    seeing how many times the ads would be viewed; could be worth $2-3 million per yr. (enough to waive bye-bye to aaron miles).

  • John_CC

    I could see Lee's HR numbers sliding down to the 25 range, but I can also imagine him staying in the upper 20s to 30 range too. He was crushing the ball last year. He has it in him. Health is the key.



    The rest of James' projections seem very reasonable to me. I actually think he is shooting low for Aramis - which is also based on health - if he could just play 145-150 games at 100% I don't doubt a .300/30/120 season out of him. And I think the .265/30 season out of Soriano is right on.



    There's a saying out here, that my father in law uses, which I like:



    Hard telling not knowing.

  • Mark

    2.7 million owed to Aaron Miles!!! MY GOD....he was absolutely worthless. I haven't seen a player have a worse year than him EVER in the MLB and this guy is owed 2.7 million!!! What a joke!

  • daverj

    Just curious after taking a look at the projections posted above ... what are people thinking is in store for D Lee in 2010. Last April everyone wanted him on the bench ... by August he was one of a few bright spots on a depressing season. What say we for 2010? I think the above power projections are a bit optimistic and I see him falling back to the 25 HR range.

  • daverj

    Those are some good ones jc.3-6-3.



    Agrees on the most overpaid OF SuzyS! I spent a few years in Boston too ... Fenway is my second favorite place to watch a game.





  • SuzyS

    Thankyou David, I was just waiting for someone to bring me to task for that statement...lol.



    Unfortunately...it's not before my time...but gratefully I was ensconced in Boston during that time...and did not have the pleasure of personally watching that team. I did like Biitner (for a slow white guy) and Morales however.



    Worst outfields/teams is a discussion for another time...the Cubs have had many.



    Perhaps I should amend my statement to

    read:" Most grossly overpaid and underperforming....given their paychecks."



    As far as dating goes...I'm not in the market right now...but if you have tickets directly behind home plate let me know...I'll talk with my significant other!!! :)

  • John_CC

    I wish we had to go back into the 80's...2005 Opening Day OF: Dubois, Burnitz, CP. 2006: Murton, Jack Jones, Juan Pierre!



    Man o man. I'll take what we have now over both those years.



    It is pretty fun (and painful) to click on different years here: http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/cubs.shtml

  • daverj

    Worst Outfield ever? ... I don't want to date you SuzyS as perhaps it's before your time, but I don't know if we'll ever see an OF as bad as the early '80's Cubs ... names like Scot Thompson (at one time one of the top prospects in all of baseball), Mike Vail, Jerry Martin, Steve Henderson, Jerry Morales and Larry Biitner come to mind.

  • MEHATEHENDRY

    SuzyS, I like your positive look on things and i agree it could be worse. But based on what we pay for ticket prices (season ticket holder), and the fact that the cubs have many advantages that other teams do not (revenue/fan base), i dont understand why Jim Hendry is still the GM. Its his mess and he should clean it up, but if i'm rickets (a true cub fan now owner), i would be thinking, nice mess you made here with these contracts and lousy farm system. Maybe I should bring in someone new instead of letting you pile onto the mess.



    I guess i'm just frustrated, we arent talking about getting Halladay and Granderson as we should be and trying to be legitimate in the NL, instead of players need to play better.

  • MEHATEHENDRY

    this offseason, looks like its going to be another disaster, given the fact that we just overpaid for a middle reliever, dont have the payroll flexibility for Halladay, and probably dont have the prospects for Granderson. We still dont want to hurt anyone's feelings about being asked to be traded (Zambrano, Dlee). We have a GM trying to clean up his own mess, with other messes that another GM will have to try and get out from under. This is a depressing way to start this offseason. Lets hope it gets better...how are we going to win the central without a SP better than Wainwright/Carpenter? And how do we compete with a Phillies team with tier A position players like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Werth, Victorino and Ace like Lee?

  • SuzyS

    MEHATEHENDRY...We have to take a different approach to this off season...or we'll drive ourselves nuts.



    More than winning in 2010...this year is about righting the ship and the direction the Cubs will take going forward.



    We currently have the worst starting

    outfield I've seen the Cubs field...and

    all locked in.



    If we can change Milton into a positive

    situation between now and the July 31st

    trading deadline...that will be a huge plus.



    Next year we concentrate on Fukodome and

    Soriano...I'm sure the Cubs will be constantly working the Soriano thing

    from now until they have to sit/trade/

    release him completely with some type of a renenotiated contract. I'm pretty confident he won't be on the field for us

    for another 5 years...He won't physically be able to perform.



    There are going to be some good things to cheer about in 2010...no matter what happens...and other than possibly the Cards...we should still contend in our division.



    For the record...from what I read...

    Pittsburg had a 3 year contract on the table for Grabow at 4 million per.

    (12 million total)



    So while Grabow was not the ideal signing for us...he is not grossly overpaid.



    Even as poorly constructed as we are now,

    with the exception of the Cards...we should still contend for the division. IMO.



    So take heart...things are tough...but not as bad as they seem.





  • Ronald

    Happy Thanksgiving. Roy Halladay is not happening unless we trade Zambrano. Jim C which player do you have in mind.

  • Jim C (Tinley Park, IL)

    it's a gut feeling. Remember when Hendry dealt Choi for Lee. I was stunned. After all, Choi was the reason Hendry didn't sign Thome as a free agent prior to the 2003 season. Thome, badly wanted to play for the Cubs and was even going to give them a discount. I truly beleive Hendry is going to trade for someone that hasn't already been mentioned. There might be a deal for some of the names that are out there but I am expecting a stunner.

  • cloycub13

    Happy Turkey day back at ya!

    Good luck with the move.



    I sure hope this is not the leneup that we have to look forward to in a few weeks. It is abundantly clear with that lineup that JH has some serious work to do...

    You are looking at Theriot/Fuky as your leadoff hitter,Bradley would have to be #2, Aram at #3, Lee #4, Soriano #5, Soto #6, Baker #7, and Theriot/Fuky #8. Defensively up the middle would be strongly lacking, and I question the extent that Rudy can change our entire underperforming lineup from 2009, because that is the same line-up the Cubs fielded last year.

    Now, can we count on Bradley, Lee, Soriano, Soto, Baker and Fukudome...I doubt it. Nothing over the last 10 months has shown me that I can. With the exception of Lee's solid season, all projections say that he is gonna go down next year.

    So, basically we are counting on Soto to work out with Dempster, Soriano to be 100% and more selective (to put it nicely), Bradley to play nice with others and actually hit left-handed. Rudy had better be a miracle worker!



    On the rumors:

    -Halladay ain't happening... just stop it!

    -Vitters/Shark for Granderson would not be the worst deal...Vitters appears to be blocked, and I would have hoped for further development at this time. I would also rather see him dealt over Castro.

    -Bradley, hold off Jim. PLEASE hold off. The deals you have gotten so far have been less than ideal. A better one will come.

  • Jim C (Tinley Park, IL)

    I have a feeling that Hendry is going to move and acquire a player that we wouldn't have expected.

  • woody34

    Jim C isn't that a given? I have a feeling the next move Hendry makes is moving Miles or Fontenot for another prospect or two. I think he is building some tradeable prospects to package with someone with a bigger contract for a piece or two.

  • SuzyS

    Neil, Thanks dor the comprehensive preview. Looking at the outfield

    still makes me turn turn a sickly

    green.



    Here's some Rickett's trivia:



    According to the Tribune:



    Cubs have hired marketing guru

    Wally Hayward. He would have been the

    guy in charge of marketing the Chicago

    Olympics...had it happened thast way.



    (1rst front office change)



    Also, the Cubs have erected a screen

    blocking the rooftop signage of

    Horseshoe Casino (formerly the Budweiser

    rooftop).

    The Cubs might actually elect to put their own adspace there...Maybe a return

    of Budweiser.



    For you real estate guru's...the guy that bought that building and rooftop

    paid $ 8.4 million for it...I believe

    in 06. I wonder what the value would be without the ad on the roof?



    Also, according to the Tribune, the Cubs have hired marketing guru Wally Hayward.

    Hayward would have led the marketing efforts od the Chicago 2016 Olympics had they happened.



    We now have the first trade/contract extension/front office addition/and possible physical change to Wrigley.

  • SuzyS

    I want to wish everyone on here a Happy Thanksgiving and Holiday Season now.



    When a daily poster stops posting, I know we wonder what happened.



    I am preparing to move and may have limited access to the internet over the next month...so don't worry.

  • ripsnorter

    Best wishes to you Suzy, as well as all the ChiCubsOnline folks for Thanksgiving and beyond.

  • Joe S. (San Diego)

    Good Luck with the move Suzy....



    I also want to wish everyone on the CCO a Happy And Safe Thanksgiving Holiday....I will not be on much over the holiday as I will be in Las Vegas visiting some close friends....Little Abby's first time to see the lights of the Las Vegas Strip...should be fun!



    David F beat me to the punch, I was going to bring up the early 80's as well. 1982 saw Henderson in LF Woods in CF and Durham in RF (also with Moreland Catching...ouch)....also has Durham in CF and Moreland in RF alot.



    I look forward to the winter meetings to see some action and movement around baseball. All is quiet this week with the holidays...then some activity up to and through the meetings...and then another lull for the Christmas holiday and New Year before things pick back up heading into Spring Training...

  • daverj

    Gary Woods ... now there's a name from the past. I met him once in '83 ... very nice guy. I think he hit something like .330 in April and then didn't do much the rest of his Cubs tenure.

  • Joe S. (San Diego)

    I think his biggest mark on the Cubs was appearing and singing with Rick Sutcliffe, Keith Moreland, Jody Davis and Leon Durham in "Here's To You Men In Blue"....

  • Neil

    Suzy ... thank you. Happy Thanksgiving and be careful

  • woody34

    Same to you Suzy. And good luck. I hate moving, I am in the middle of a move myself. Waiting for house that won't be ready until Janurary. Been living out of a suitcase in a hotel, I miss my bed.

  • SuzyS

    Woody...good luck to you...I hate moving too.

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